Jim Kelly, "something wrong" if Bills don't take East

[MJS]

30 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

There are NUMEROUS examples of teams making jumps from bad or average to Super bowl representers from their conference or champs.

 

Don't overthink it.... the Bills won’t be overachieving if they make a super bowl run. They should expect to be competing for it.

 

Ok, going back ten years, here's what the superbowl winners look like (and there is only one single example of a winner coming from nowhere):

 

2019 Chiefs	4 straight years of playoff appearances (2015 to 2018) before winning the superbowl in the 2019 season
2018 Patriots	No commentary needed
2017 Eagles	Good example of a 7-9 team winning the superbowl the next season
2016 Patriots	No commentary needed
2015 Broncos	4 straight years of playoff appearances (2011 to 2014) before winning the superbowl in the 2015 season
2014 Patriots	No commentary needed
2013 Seahawks	Playoff appearances 2 of the past 3 years (2010 and 2012), including playoff wins both of those years, before winning the superbowl in 2013
2012 Ravens	4 straight years of playoff appearances (2008 to 2011) before winning the superbowl in the 2012 season
2011 Giants	Playoff appearances 4 of the last 6 seasons (including a superbowl win) before winning the superbowl in the 2011 season
2010 Packers	Playoff appearances 2 of the past 3 years (2007 and 2009), including a playoff win in 2007, before winning the superbowl in 2010

 

Seems to me like it is most common (if you aren't the Patriots) to win the Superbowl in your 5th straight season of making the playoffs and winning playoff games.

Edited May 18, 2020 by MJS

[4_kidd_4]

Can I still get a good ol’ “AFC East Champs“ tee shirt from Trench??

 

That’s all I really want.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

They didn't have to suffer a down year moving contracts around iirc

 

Yeah but they were already competitive in year 2 as well. Wilson improved, the coaching staff was obviously strong, and they added the talent needed to be competitive for a championship.

 

I guess my point is, what is there stopping the Bills from competing for a championship this year? Last year we were still rebuilding our talent level. We had a whole new offensive roster around a young QB. No one reasonably expected us to be Super Bowl contenders. I thought the expectation was to make the playoffs as a wildcard and look competitive in that game. They met that bar.

 

This year everyone on offense is back in the same system but we added a #1 WR. The defense at worst is at the same talent level (I would argue it has actually improved slightly). So that leads me to conclude that if the Bills do not compete for a championship this year, either the coaches or Allen did not meet a standard that we should expect. Another year of rebuilding isn't going to change the team's outlook that much. This year we should be a team that wins at least one playoff game and looks at least competitive in game 2. If we fall a little short of winning it all, one more good draft and free agency period might push us over the top. But we're done adding the major pieces.

Edited May 18, 2020 by HappyDays

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yeah but they were already competitive in year 2 as well. Wilson improved, the coaching staff was obviously strong, and they added the talent needed to be competitive for a championship.

 

I guess my point is, what is there stopping the Bills from competing for a championship this year? Last year we were still rebuilding our talent level. We had a whole new offensive roster around a young QB. No this reasonably expected us to be Super Bowl contenders. I thought the expectation was to make the playoffs as a wildcard and look competitive in that game. They met that bar.

 

This year everyone on offense is back in the same system but we added a #1 WR. The defense at worst is at the same talent level (I would argue it has actually improved slightly). So that leads me to conclude that if the Bills do not compete for a championship this year, either the coaches or Allen did not meet a standard that we should expect. Another year of rebuilding isn't going to change the team's outlook that much. This year we should be a team that wins at least one playoff game and looks at least competitive in game 2. If we fall a little short of winning it all, one more good draft and free agency period might push us over the top. But we're done adding the major pieces.

I agree w all this and I'd say the only thing that's stopping us from competing for a championship is experience at this point. 

[SRQ_BillsFan]

With this schedule if the Bills can win 11-12 games or more there is no reason to think that they couldn’t win it all. 
 

We would have played the best teams in the league already. Confidence should be high for this team. 
 

For that to happen even we should feel confident. 
 

Who said “16-0 Baby”? I’m with them!!

[njbuff]

4 hours ago, Gugny said:

Winning the division can't be the goal.  I'm sick of baby steps.  Win the ***** Super Bowl.

 

From your lips to God's ears. ?

[MJS]

44 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

So basically the Patriots and everyone else.... and the Patriots started their dynasty of winning the super bowl in 2001 when they were atrocious for several years before. 
 

You didn’t mention the 2019 49ers. Hell, even the 2019 Rams.
 

The Bills have made the playoffs 2 out of the past 3 years, so if they win the Super Bowl in 2020 the difference between them and the 2010 packers and 2013 Seahawks is a couple playoff wins prior to those teams winning the super bowl.

 

The difference is the QB. If Allen steps up big throughout then the Bills will have as good a chance as any to win the Super Bowl regardless of what they’ve done in years prior.

Yep. Winning in the playoffs does seem to be an important milestone before a Superbowl appearance.

 

Here's the superbowl losers over that same time frame:

 

2019 49ers	Good example of a mediocre team making the superbowl the next season
2018 Rams	1st in the NFC West with an 11-5 record in 2017 (but didn't win a playoff game) before 2018 superbowl appearance
2017 Patriots	No commentary needed
2016 Falcons	Decent example of a mediocre team making the superbowl the next season, but had playoff experience and wins 3 of the past 6 seasons (2010 to 2012)
2015 Panthers	2 straight years of playoff appearances (2013 and 2014) with a win in 2014 before their 2015 superbowl appearance
2014 Seahawks	Playoff appearances 3 of the past 4 years (2010, 2012, and 2013), including a superbowl win before appearing in the 2014 superbowl
2013 Broncos	2 straight years of playoff appearances (2011 and 2012) with a win in 2011 before their 2013 superbowl appearance
2012 Ravens	Appeared in the 2011 playoffs and won a plyaoff game before their 2012 superbowl appearance
2011 Patriots	No commentary needed
2010 Steelers	Playoff appearances 6 of the last 9 seasons, including two superbowl wins, before their 2010 superbowl appearance

 

 

From those we have the 2019 49ers as a good example of a mediocre team going to the Superbowl the next season. The Falcons are also somewhat of an example, but not as strong since they had playoff experience in previous years before that.

 

It's obviously possible that the Bills can get to the Superbowl, but not very likely. You USUALLY see teams have multiple years of playoff experience and multiple playoff wins before they progress to the Superbowl. But there are a couple exceptions over the past 10 years.

Edited May 18, 2020 by MJS

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Jim there’s something wrong if you go to 4 Super Bowls in a row and lose, so I trust your expertise on smelling a problem... 

[MJS]

59 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I agree w all this and I'd say the only thing that's stopping us from competing for a championship is experience at this point. 

 

There's other question marks, like if Josh Allen can take a big leap and become a Superbowl caliber QB. We don't really know if Daboll is a good offensive coordinator. The offensive line is average, but I don't know if it is good enough to get us to the Superbowl. I trust the defense, but we still need to see a big uptick on offense.

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

5 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

Jim Kelly made the comment, something's wrong if the Bills don't take the division this year. 

 

GMFB weighs in... 

 

https://youtu.be/y0jiCzjXeio

I'm getting ready anyways:     *&^%ing officials always %$#@ing screw us!

 

 

 

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, MJS said:

 

There's other question marks, like if Josh Allen can take a big leap and become a Superbowl caliber QB. We don't really know if Daboll is a good offensive coordinator. The offensive line is average, but I don't know if it is good enough to get us to the Superbowl. I trust the defense, but we still need to see a big uptick on offense.

In my mind there are only questions at QB and TE (obviously QB is the big one) looking at the roster on paper that would prevent a championship run. I don’t believe you need a great offensive line anymore, just a decent one. Ours is decent enough.

 

Daboll has a lot to prove for me and the whole squad needs seasoning winning playoff games. Imo the pieces are all in place 

[MJS]

3 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I just don’t agree that the Bills won’t go to the Super Bowl because they haven’t won a playoff game yet..... if they don’t make it there I’ll bet it’s because their QB wasn’t good enough. 

Don't lots of really good QB's fail to make it to the Superbowl? The MVP last year didn't win a playoff game and the MVP before that didn't make it to the Superbowl in his MVP season (he went the next year). Brees has been elite his entire career and has only made it once.

 

Josh can have an excellent season and the team can still not make it to the Superbowl. It doesn't mean he wasn't good enough. It just means some other team beat them along the way, and the best QB's in NFL history got beat sometimes.

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

In my mind there are only questions at QB and TE (obviously QB is the big one) looking at the roster on paper that would prevent a championship run. I don’t believe you need a great offensive line anymore, just a decent one. Ours is decent enough.

 

Daboll has a lot to prove for me and the whole squad needs seasoning winning playoff games. Imo the pieces are all in place 

I felt like the offensive line really let the team down in that Texans playoff game. There were times, especially during critical downs, they couldn't block anyone and Allen was under immediate pressure. But maybe with another year playing together they'll be better.

[Nihilarian]

I look at this upcoming season and think about it like the 1989 Buffalo Bills season.  That year the Bills still won the division because the rest of the division was so bad that 9-7 was good enough. They went to the playoffs against the Cleveland Browns in game* at Cleveland and lost 34-30.

 

That season the bills were still finding themselves after a 12-4 season in 1988 and an AFC Championship game in Cincy that they lost 21-10. 

 

There are still a few holes on this roster that the coaching staff, FO need to see and figure out. There are still questions about stopping the run and the pass rush. On the offensive side there is still questions about the offensive coordinator and the offensive line. I have an opinion that neither are good enough to win 12 games this season as the schedule is so much more difficult. I expect some changes after the 2020 season.

 

I won't be shocked if the Bills don't win the division and the Patriots still take it, disappointed but not shocked. I'd be shocked if the Dolphins win it though.

 

 

Edited May 18, 2020 by Nihilarian

[billsbackto81]

5 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

If they can't accomplish winning this division, in the shape that it's in, no way they're winning the Super Bowl.

Tennessee was one game away and they didn't win their division. It's all about hitting the post season hot, firing on all cylinders and playing well. Something our boys did not do. 

[stinky finger]

3 hours ago, Happy said:

 

This is exactly why the Bills are not ready to go to a SB this year.  It's about McDermott growing as a HC just as much as it is about Josh growing as a QB.  I believe Josh is up to the task, McDermott.........we'll see.

 

Look - McDermott clearly needs to wear his head coach pants, but it is clearly Allen's play that will determine how far this team goes.   

[RalphWilson'sNewWar]

It does not have to be that something in Buffalo went wrong as much as perhaps some thing with another team went MORE right.

 

If Sam Darnold were to maximize and fulfill the promise of his potential in year three...may be virtually 13 win quarterback.

[Happy]

11 minutes ago, inaugural balls said:

 

Look - McDermott clearly needs to wear his head coach pants, but it is clearly Allen's play that will determine how far this team goes.   

 

I mentioned as much.  If Josh still has deep ball inaccuracies and the game doesn't slow down for him, then yeah, Josh won't help in winning.

[TwistofFate]

2 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

Well again nothing is set in stone. But for the most part, teams and  organizations need to learn how to win

 

It's the same in the NFL ,division 1 football ,and high School

 

You need to build a culture of winning in most cases

 

Even Saban struggled his first year in Alabama.

 

Sure it's always possible, but winning is a learned behavior in sports.  fact

Dynasty's are built on culture, SB winning seasons are not. 

[Buffalo716]

17 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Dynasty's are built on culture, SB winning seasons are not. 

You don't go from being a losing team with a losing culture. To winning the super bowl in one season

 

It's a process

 

Tons of good teams need to learn how to win close games before they take the next step as title contenders

 

2 and 14 teams don't wake up in the super bowl

 

Even the 49rs learned to win some games with Nick Freaking Mullins which obviously helped once they got jimmy back the next season. 

Edited May 18, 2020 by Buffalo716

[Ga boy]

6 hours ago, Figster said:

Allen vs Mahomes in the AFC Championship would be awesome

Mahomes magic is the real deal and I agree,

 

They gonna be good for a little while...

To beat KC, we have to match them point for point, and continue to build a mean and fast defense to get after their QB.  That’s the formula.  Go Bills!