Anybody want to go on record about Josh?

[frostbitmic]

If there is a season this year, Allen will improve greatly. He'll become a top 10 QB in 2021.

 

As with most players, third year in the league seems like the point of getting it. I think you'll see the same for Josh. Adding Diggs gives Allen a damn fine trio of WR's which opens everything up

[starrymessenger]

It's a great question, not because astute posters and observers can enlighten us with their analysis, though of course it is always welcome and helpful, but because even after careful consideration of his college and pro career it remains almost impossible to answer at this time IMO. 

As a rook I think I pretty much saw the same guy he was in college, a sometimes physically dominant presence on the football field who struggled at times partly because he took too much on his shoulders, partly because of a deficient supporting cast and partly because he was so raw playing the position that requires the most in the way of refinement and nuance. While this may seem unremarkable, in fact it is quite remarkable because he was now doing it against the highest level of competition. Just ask Anthony Barr. It confirmed his elite athleticism. In this regard he is top 2 or 3 in the league already, and he might even be the best athlete.

Last year the braintrust began more seriously to work on his development as a pocket passer and it's certainly encouraging that we saw noticeable improvement in his short and intermediate range accuracy. I think this emphasis may well partly explain his problems with the long ball last year. If that's the case we should expect it to improve, as apparently also do the Bills since, already having John Brown,  they have invested through a trade and the draft in WRs who can stretch the field. This should also further benefit his short/intermediate game. I think we also saw some welcome evidence of of his being able to execute touch throws to his backs and TEs upfield though oddly he sometimes still has difficulty dumping the ball off to his backs at or around the LOS. Losman, another good athlete, also struggled with this. Not sure I understand why. Can only be footwork/mechanics.

The table has been set for him. Beane and McD have built a strong and deep roster on both sides of the ball that is ready to compete. In particular, the addition of Diggs and Moss is absolutely huge IMO and represents a massive upgrade for Josh and the offence. My sense and expectation is that Allen will continue to improve and that the Bills will be a very difficult assignment for the best opponents. If he breaks out the Bills are probably a top 5 team and in the mix for a deep playoff/championship run. 

Edited May 16, 2020 by starrymessenger

[Mr. WEO]

On ‎5‎/‎14‎/‎2020 at 10:29 PM, Bss said:

Put Matt Stafford on this roster and I think he goes really far. Not his fault he has to play for the lions.

I'd take pre injury 2018 Cam Newton any day of the week

 

Stafford at times played with a top 5 O and top 5 D.  Didn't matter.  No playoff wins.  Wildly overrated after 2 big seasons way back. 

[papazoid]

will josh be worth the $35-40 mil/yr on his 2nd contract that he will likely command ?

 

the way the QB market is going.....an arguement could be made to keep draft QB's high and play with one still on a rookie deal

[Bangarang]

26 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Stafford at times played with a top 5 O and top 5 D.  Didn't matter.  No playoff wins.  Wildly overrated after 2 big seasons way back. 

The Lions have only had a top 5 defense once with Stafford and that year they won 11 games and made the playoffs.

 

The last few years the Lions defense has been one of the worst in the league.

 

I haven’t looked up the numbers but it also seems like they’ve never been a strong running team with Stafford either. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

On 5/14/2020 at 9:34 PM, Jay_Fixit said:

I’m curious as to how “gamer” and “leader” are quantified and made into a statistic.

It's easy. If you are a white QB and you throw 20 TD against 10 picks and lateral the ball to no one in a playoff game you are a gamer.

If you are black QB, former MVP, and led your team to the Superbowl where you were repeatedly hit illegally, you are not. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

13 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

You can be both stupid and brilliant while being reckless. And as you said he usually does both in a game. That attempted lateral to Knox was probably the stupidest thing Josh has done so far besides all the countless fumbles from weak ball security. Yet he'll take a 4th and 2 play and be stopped in the backfield only to somehow dive miraculously 2 yards for the 1st.  The boy will drive you crazy.

I'd prefer he just not drop the snap before making the miraculous 4th down run against Dallas. 

Allen was the QB I wanted but he has to play better. We will know by the end of this year. There are no excuses. OL is good enough, WR group is great. All he needs to do is increase TD by 5 and decrease InT/fumbles by 5 and Bill's should win 11 or more games. I think he makes the leap and becomes a great QB but never cracks the top 5 in QB rating. He will never be a 65% completion guy unless they change the offense significantly. 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

I'd prefer he just not drop the snap before making the miraculous 4th down run against Dallas. 

Allen was the QB I wanted but he has to play better. We will know by the end of this year. There are no excuses. OL is good enough, WR group is great. All he needs to do is increase TD by 5 and decrease InT/fumbles by 5 and Bill's should win 11 or more games. I think he makes the leap and becomes a great QB but never cracks the top 5 in QB rating. He will never be a 65% completion guy unless they change the offense significantly. 

The two go hand in hand

[Doc Brown]

I see him in the 6 to 15 range the rest of his career if he continues to progress.  He has that clutch gene so you could win multiple Super Bowls with the right team around him.  Yes, accuracy is the reason he'll never be considered top 5.

[JetsFan20]

3 hours ago, Logic said:

 

Just of curiosity, so that we can gauge your level of bias and realism...

 

You’ve stated that you see Allen having a Culpepper/Newton like career. What type of career do you see Sam Darnold having? Who would you compare HIM to?

 

By the way, you might want to take a look at Elway’s career stats. Allen has actually completed a higher percentage of passes, thrown more TDs and less interceptions through his first two years than Elway did. Even in year 3 of Elway’s career, he threw more INTs than TDs. The point is that Hall of Fame QBs don’t just IMMEDIATELY start out their careers at a Hall of Fame level. Favre is another good illustration of this.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/E/ElwaJo00.htm

Please do not compare stats in Elways era to QBs today. If you look just at stats you’d probably wonder how Elway and Brett Favre are in the HOF. It’s no different than comparing Joe Namath to Elway and Favre back in the 90s. It’s a totally different sport. John Elway was probably the best QB prospect of all time. He was far more accurate down the field than what Allen has shown thus far.

 

As for Darnold? I think he mostly closely resembles  Jameis Winston both in terms of style of play and inconsistency. 

[John from Riverside]

3 hours ago, papazoid said:

will josh be worth the $35-40 mil/yr on his 2nd contract that he will likely command ?

 

the way the QB market is going.....an arguement could be made to keep draft QB's high and play with one still on a rookie deal

Disagree with this......strongly.   Josh is a big reason why we have made the playoffs 2 out of the last 3 years and are trending up.

 

You go through all that time and effort to groom a talent......and you let someone else reap the benefits of that?   You think a team like the patriots wouldnt let scoop him up after he left the bills facility?

[CommonCents]

Over 30 passing TDs. 600 rushing yards, 60+ percent completion, wins a playoff game. 

[NewEra]

I’ve been going back and forth on this one for

a couple days now.  Still don’t know.

 

I had been deliberating between the first and second option.  Now I’m thinking that the 3rd option is the best option.  
 

The only reason I say that:  Beane and McD aren’t messing around.  They mean business and they want a QB that will win them Super Bowls.  If they are unconvinced that JA is the man, I don’t think they are going to pay him 40 mill a year. Maybe one franchise tag. They’d rather trade him, gather some assets and build around the next guy while not having to pay a non champion 20% of the cap.  McBeanes jobs are safe so they have this option.  
 

Of course this is the part of me, as a Bills fan for 40+ years, that doesn’t think I’m allowed to have nice things.  Josh Allen is SO talented that if he does love up to his immense potential, I think he’s going to the HoF, first ballot, with multiple Super Bowls.  Can this actually happen to us?  Ugh

still haven’t voted yet because option 1 is calling my name.  1 or 3.  Which it gonna be?

 

[Dr. Who]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I’ve been going back and forth on this one for

a couple days now.  Still don’t know.

 

I had been deliberating between the first and second option.  Now I’m thinking that the 3rd option is the best option.  
 

The only reason I say that:  Beane and McD aren’t messing around.  They mean business and they want a QB that will win them Super Bowls.  If they are unconvinced that JA is the man, I don’t think they are going to pay him 40 mill a year. Maybe one franchise tag. They’d rather trade him, gather some assets and build around the next guy while not having to pay a non champion 20% of the cap.  McBeanes jobs are safe so they have this option.  
 

Of course this is the part of me, as a Bills fan for 40+ years, that doesn’t think I’m allowed to have nice things.  Josh Allen is SO talented that if he does love up to his immense potential, I think he’s going to the HoF, first ballot, with multiple Super Bowls.  Can this actually happen to us?  Ugh

still haven’t voted yet because option 1 is calling my name.  1 or 3.  Which it gonna be?

 

Option 1 -- just because it's what your heart wants doesn't make it irrational. So far, only poster I value who has voted #3 is Logic. Don't add to that list.

 

I should clarify the rest of you fellas who are wrong are okay, but it didn't hurt me to see your names there.

Edited May 16, 2020 by Dr. Who

[NewEra]

4 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Stafford at times played with a top 5 O and top 5 D.  Didn't matter.  No playoff wins.  Wildly overrated after 2 big seasons way back. 

I agree with this....and then I looked at his head coaches.  Schwartz, Caldwell and Patricia.   While I still agree, I withhold judgement on whether or not we’d win with Stafford based on his head coaches. A HC can keep a good QB down (and vice versa).  I have never loved the talent level of that team.  They were always missing something and I don’t think it was better QB play.

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

I agree with this....and then I looked at his head coaches.  Schwartz, Caldwell and Patricia.   While I still agree, I withhold judgement on whether or not we’d win with Stafford based on his head coaches. A HC can keep a good QB down (and vice versa).  I have never loved the talent level of that team.  They were always missing something and I don’t think it was better QB play.

Another way to think of it is that he’s been a bit over mediocre for 3 different coaches. I doubt it was the coaches.

 

i would take Josh Allen over Stafford in between heartbeats.  

[Success]

I'm ALL IN on Allen. I've seen enough to know that he will keep working & improving. He's one of those guys who may not quite make top 10 in stats, but will always find ways to win games.

 

I think he's our guy throughout the 2020's and beyond.  This year will tell us a lot more, obviously.  They've given him everything a QB needs to succeed - this is the best WR corps we've had since Moulds/Price.

 

Stoked. We waited 2 decades, but we're finally there.  Now, if we could just get past this l'il virus thing...

 

[Bangarang]

1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

Disagree with this......strongly.   Josh is a big reason why we have made the playoffs 2 out of the last 3 years and are trending up.

Uhhhh.....Josh was still in college when we first made the playoffs under McD.

We went 6-10 his rookie year.

[John from Riverside]

38 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

Uhhhh.....Josh was still in college when we first made the playoffs under McD.

We went 6-10 his rookie year.

Well my bad on that......

 

So.....50 percent on years that Josh Allen was QB......does it really change the point that much (and this team was in a massive rebiuld in that 6 and 10 year wouldnt you agree with that?

[DJB]

Josh is already a top fantasy QB so ya I voted that.