Josh's passing stats for 2019 aren't as bad as many people think.

[TwistofFate]

3 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Well I’m sure you would agree with PFF then, that Duck Hodges is a better qb than Allen. ?

Absolutely not.  Allen brings much more to the table, especially with running. 

 

Allens biggest problem is accuracy.   Im not worried about him reading defenses all that much, that is a process.   He can run around to buy time reading a defense, or simply run if he must.   Reading Ds will come with time, and he has the tools to make up for not being the best at reading coverages. 

 

On top of that, he isnt dumb.  I believe he scored mid 30s on wonderlic, which is up there. 

Edited May 18, 2020 by TwistofFate

[BarleyNY]

On 5/14/2020 at 7:42 PM, tomur67 said:

       In 16 games Josh  completed 271 passes in 461 attempts for a 58.8%.  If he had 2 more completions per game, that would give him 303 completions for a 64.3% average, which is in the range of most NFL quarterbacks.  Yes, there are some QB's with higher completion averages.  For example,  Drew Brees  led the NFL with a 74.3 completion average, but his completion yardage was 2,979 yards, less than Josh's 3089 yards. It looks like Brees and a few other QB's are throwing a few more screen passes or dump off passes than Josh threw.  Plus you have to figure in drops.  All in all, I'm not worried at all about Josh"s accuracy issue,  In my humble opinion, it's not an issue.

I’m going to offer some perspective here.  In baseball a player gets about 4 official at bats per game.  So if he gets one hit per game he bats .250.  in 2018 the league batting average was basically that (.248).  If an average batter could improve by one hit every three games then he’d go from 3-for-12 to 4-for-12 and have a .333 BA.  Exactly one player broke that mark In 2018.  That means one addition al hit per every three games would take a player from dead average to the best hitter (or top 2 or 3) in the league. The difference in pay would be tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars over a career.  So the incentive for MLB players to make a jump like that is enormous.  
 

Allen is still comfortably in the 20s for metrics that take into account things like drops.  An improvement of just a couple better thrown passes per game would make an enormous difference in his ratings.  But that’s not an easy task and should not be viewed as such by fans.  As I’ve noted many times, Allen came into the league extremely raw and that actually gives me more hope for improvement.  Players like Trubisky were a much more finished product.  Chicago seems to realize that what they saw in 2019 is pretty much who he’s going to be.  I don’t think that Allen is necessarily done developing, but the clock is ticking for him.  As the times to make serious financial commitments to him are nearing (5th year option and long term contract), he’s going to have to step up and show.  

[Bangarang]

13 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I’m going to offer some perspective here.  In baseball a player gets about 4 official at bats per game.  So if he gets one hit per game he bats .250.  in 2018 the league batting average was basically that (.248).  If an average batter could improve by one hit every three games then he’d go from 3-for-12 to 4-for-12 and have a .333 BA.  Exactly one player broke that mark In 2018.  That means one addition al hit per every three games would take a player from dead average to the best hitter (or top 2 or 3) in the league. The difference in pay would be tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars over a career.  So the incentive for MLB players to make a jump like that is enormous.  
 

Allen is still comfortably in the 20s for metrics that take into account things like drops.  An improvement of just a couple better thrown passes per game would make an enormous difference in his ratings.  But that’s not an easy task and should not be viewed as such by fans.  As I’ve noted many times, Allen came into the league extremely raw and that actually gives me more hope for improvement.  Players like Trubisky were a much more finished product.  Chicago seems to realize that what they saw in 2019 is pretty much who he’s going to be.  I don’t think that Allen is necessarily done developing, but the clock is ticking for him.  As the times to make serious financial commitments to him are nearing (5th year option and long term contract), he’s going to have to step up and show.  

Did you really just call Trubisky more of a finished product coming out of college? You should know how wrong and ridiculous that is to say.

 

I can agree with calling Allen raw coming out of Wyoming but why make stuff up? 

Edited May 18, 2020 by Bangarang

[papazoid]

you are, what your stats say you are.

 

24th in total QBR

23rd in total yards

30th in passer rating

[ngbills]

2 hours ago, papazoid said:

you are, what your stats say you are.

 

24th in total QBR

23rd in total yards

30th in passer rating

But Jim Kelly, but Eli Manning, but Starr, Unitas, Namath. But but but. Oh jeez, maybe your right. Our offense was not good enough. Our QB was not good enough. As a traditional passer he was downright bad at times. He is going into his 3rd year. He is struggling at the things "coaches/scouts" expected. That is ok. But if people want to be protective of him and debate based on emotion that is fine. End of the day it is what it is. He does not improve, this front office seems to be thoughtful enough to not want to invest $100-200M in the kid. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

He (Allen) finished 16th among qualifying players in my ratings. That said, Brees averaged 78 YPG, and 1.18 YPA, more than Allen through the air. Let's leave Brees out of it.

Edited May 18, 2020 by BuffaloHokie13

[GoBills808]

3 hours ago, papazoid said:

you are, what your stats say you are.

 

24th in total QBR

23rd in total yards

30th in passer rating

I don't know if using QBR and passer rating is the best way of analyzing a quarterback whose receivers dropped passes at the rate ours did. Both rely way too heavily (imo) on completions and comp%

 

Nor is gross yards a great metric for QB performance. ANY/A, a very good QB metric, has him at 23rd overall which is where I'd put him comfortably without factoring in what he gives you on the ground.

[BarleyNY]

2 hours ago, Bangarang said:

Did you really just call Trubisky more of a finished product coming out of college? You should know how wrong and ridiculous that is to say.

 

I can agree with calling Allen raw coming out of Wyoming but why make stuff up? 

I totally disagree.  Trubisky‘s footwork and arm mechanics were excellent coming out of college.  He had good accuracy except with the deep ball.  That’s pretty much exactly who he still is.  He didn’t develop as a pro very well, but his fundamentals were very solid coming out.  Personally, I did not like him as a prospect because I saw him as a low ceiling QB.  

 

OTOH, Allen’s arm mechanics and footwork - especially his footwork - have been improved greatly.  He still falters sometimes, but they’re vastly improved from college.  For instance, he could hardly ever complete a pass to the right flat his rookie season.  That was due to atrocious footwork.  He largely cleaned that up before last season.  I breathed a sigh of relief the first time he threw - and completed - that throw last season.  It’s not like Trubisky had those kinds of problems.

 

Arm mechanics and footwork take time and effort to fix.  Until they become the habit it is easy for any QB to revert to the old habits if they don’t think about them.  I watched it happen to EJ Manuel.  I think it was year two.  He came out looking a lot better.  He’d obviously cleaned up a lot in the offseason, but then the pressure got to him and he reverted.  It was over.

 

There’s a world of difference between a QB with a solid foundation making the leap to the NFL and one who doesn’t that.  The former can focus more on the play, reads, etc.  The latter has a much more difficult road and tends to progress more slowly.  So three years in, we know who Trubisky is.  Allen was still fixing mechanics coming into last season.  Sure, I’m sure he’s developing his reads and progressions, but I don’t expect him to be as far along with those as Trubisky was after year 2.  It makes sense to me that he might have more room for growth there, though it’s by no means a given.

 

The real problems with drafting such a raw QB so high are just these.  One, there’s more hurdles to success.  Maybe he can never fix his mechanics/footwork - and even if he can then he still has everything else to figure out.  And two, you might not know what you really have by the time you have to pay and commit to him.  I’m purposely avoiding predicting Allen’s odds of success or failure.  It’s the offseason and he’s the Bills QB.  I can give him credit for the progress he’s made and allow for the possibility that he’ll continue to develop.

[papazoid]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I don't know if using QBR and passer rating is the best way of analyzing a quarterback whose receivers dropped passes at the rate ours did. Both rely way too heavily (imo) on completions and comp%

 

Nor is gross yards a great metric for QB performance. ANY/A, a very good QB metric, has him at 23rd overall which is where I'd put him comfortably without factoring in what he gives you on the ground.

 

currently, i rank josh 20th

 

i'm expecting a big improvement in the mental part of game and a slight improvement in the physical throwing 

 

predicting 15th for 2020

[GoBills808]

Just now, papazoid said:

 

currently, i rank josh 20th

 

i'm expecting a big improvement in the mental part of game and a slight improvement in the physical throwing 

 

predicting 15th for 2020

I put him overall in that 16ish range at current but we aren't that far apart

 

I expect him to be a clear cut top 10 guy this coming year

[thebandit27]

16 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

Ill lay it out for you nice and simple.   What im going to tell you isn't hypothetical, it's factual. 

 

1.  Allen has never completed 60% or higher at any point in his college career, nor 2 years now as a professional. 

 

2. He's completed sub 50% (mid to low 40s) completion in 3 games this past season.   Every game was a loss, every opponent  finished the season with a winning record. His average attempts per game, was 34. (take a look at our schedule, we need big numbers and points to win this year) 

 

3. With the exception of the Titans, every game Allen completed 60% or greater was against teams without a winning record. 

 

4.  Drops...Out of every team with 20 or more drops this season, Allen is the only Qb with sub 60% completion.   8 teams had 20+ drops.

 

5.  Advanced metrics... Sports Info Solutions, which has risen to be one of the best most trusted analytical outfits in pro football, has Allen ranked as one of the worst Qbs in the NFL from a clean pocket,  as well as on target throws.. (leading receivers with ball placement for YAC)   These stats according to them, are the two most important metrics which determine long term franchise Qb performance.  No franchise Qbs in the last 10 years have posted the poor numbers Allen has in those key metrics, in their first two years.  NONE.  The most similar comparison to Allens numbers, is Mitch Trubisky. 

 

6.  Allen has yet to do something as common and frequent as any other franchise Qb in the NFL.... pass for 300 yards in an NFL game.   2 years in the NFL as a starter, and he has yet to do something routine from NFL Qbs. 

 

Adding Diggs looks beautiful on paper, and to be honest takes away all excuses.  But ill let you in on a secret...Our Wrs were running wide open all over the place last year and if you can't connect with them, it doesn't matter who that reciever is. 

 

I placed a bet on FACTS and DATA, not on unproven hopes, theoretics, and emotions. 

So for a 3rd time in this thread, I’ll ask...with all this analysis, tell me: if Buffalo’s WR/TE group had a league-wide average percentage of drops last season, with absolutely no other changes, what would Allen’s completion percentage have been?

 

The facts actually aren’t on your side here. You’re betting on a regression from Allen combined with zero improvement from the pass catching group.

3 hours ago, papazoid said:

you are, what your stats say you are.

 

24th in total QBR

23rd in total yards

30th in passer rating

6th in total TDs
10-4 in games he started and finished 

 

[thebandit27]

16 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

48% completion against those defenses. 

 

Our defense is one of the best in the NFL. 

 

Lamar put up 3tds and 64% completion. 

 

Duck Hodges as an undrafted rookie put up 61% completion.

 

Brady put up 79% completion on us. 

 

They all faced a top 3 defense in the NFL.   I dont see them combining for 48%.

Since you brought up Brady: Who had a higher passes-on-target percentage in 2019: Brady or Allen? No cheating.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing_advanced.htm

Edited May 18, 2020 by thebandit27

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Since you brought up Brady: Who had a higher passes-on-target percentage in 2019: Brady or Allen? No cheating.

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing_advanced.htm
 

 

Don't bring up these obscure QB statistics! We only want commonly used ones like total yards that put Allen at 23rd...you know, a whole 38 yards behind the league MVP.

[Bangarang]

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Don't bring up these obscure QB statistics! We only want commonly used ones like total yards that put Allen at 23rd...you know, a whole 38 yards behind the league MVP.

Nice to see you’re back at again. 

[GoBills808]

Just now, Bangarang said:

Nice to see you’re back at again. 

Fight me

[Bangarang]

34 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I totally disagree.  Trubisky‘s footwork and arm mechanics were excellent coming out of college.  He had good accuracy except with the deep ball.  That’s pretty much exactly who he still is.  He didn’t develop as a pro very well, but his fundamentals were very solid coming out.  Personally, I did not like him as a prospect because I saw him as a low ceiling QB.  

 

OTOH, Allen’s arm mechanics and footwork - especially his footwork - have been improved greatly.  He still falters sometimes, but they’re vastly improved from college.  For instance, he could hardly ever complete a pass to the right flat his rookie season.  That was due to atrocious footwork.  He largely cleaned that up before last season.  I breathed a sigh of relief the first time he threw - and completed - that throw last season.  It’s not like Trubisky had those kinds of problems.

 

Arm mechanics and footwork take time and effort to fix.  Until they become the habit it is easy for any QB to revert to the old habits if they don’t think about them.  I watched it happen to EJ Manuel.  I think it was year two.  He came out looking a lot better.  He’d obviously cleaned up a lot in the offseason, but then the pressure got to him and he reverted.  It was over.

 

There’s a world of difference between a QB with a solid foundation making the leap to the NFL and one who doesn’t that.  The former can focus more on the play, reads, etc.  The latter has a much more difficult road and tends to progress more slowly.  So three years in, we know who Trubisky is.  Allen was still fixing mechanics coming into last season.  Sure, I’m sure he’s developing his reads and progressions, but I don’t expect him to be as far along with those as Trubisky was after year 2.  It makes sense to me that he might have more room for growth there, though it’s by no means a given.

 

The real problems with drafting such a raw QB so high are just these.  One, there’s more hurdles to success.  Maybe he can never fix his mechanics/footwork - and even if he can then he still has everything else to figure out.  And two, you might not know what you really have by the time you have to pay and commit to him.  I’m purposely avoiding predicting Allen’s odds of success or failure.  It’s the offseason and he’s the Bills QB.  I can give him credit for the progress he’s made and allow for the possibility that he’ll continue to develop.

Trubisky attempted less passes in college than Allen.
 

Nagy has stated that Trubisky has problems with his footwork and mechanics.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/bears/news/matt-nagy-says-mitchell-trubiskys-troubles-are-all-in-the-footwork

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/bearswire.usatoday.com/2019/10/22/chicago-bears-matt-nagy-mitch-trubisky-footwork/amp/
 

https://www.bleachernation.com/bears/2018/12/12/a-three-int-game-has-mitch-trubisky-re-working-his-footwork-mechanics/
 

Every QB works on their footwork and mechanics once they get to the NFL. Saying Trubisky’s are excellent clearly doesn’t appear to be the case. And regardless, there also so much more to being a developed QB than just the 2 things you mentioned..

[BarleyNY]

Just now, Bangarang said:

Trubisky attempted less passes in college than Allen.
 

Nagy has stated that Trubisky has problems with his footwork and mechanics.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/bears/news/matt-nagy-says-mitchell-trubiskys-troubles-are-all-in-the-footwork

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/bearswire.usatoday.com/2019/10/22/chicago-bears-matt-nagy-mitch-trubisky-footwork/amp/
 

https://www.bleachernation.com/bears/2018/12/12/a-three-int-game-has-mitch-trubisky-re-working-his-footwork-mechanics/
 

Every QB works on their footwork and mechanics once they get to the NFL. Saying Trubisky’s are excellent clearly doesn’t appear to be the case. And regardless, there also so much more to being a developed QB than just the 2 things you mentioned..

Trubisky has had good arm mechanics and footwork with a clean pocket. The issues he has had with them happens when he is under pressure.  He breaks down in a lot of ways under pressure.  That was also the case in college - and it was a big red flag for such a highly drafted prospect.

 

Yes, there is more to being a QB than the two things I mentioned.  However I thought they illustrated the differences between a QB prospect as raw as Allen was and one who had a lot less work to do on his fundamentals.  Also I thought what I wrote was plenty long enough already.

[papazoid]

3rd .....in fumbles....laffin

 

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/stats.html?mode=M

[Bangarang]

37 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Trubisky has had good arm mechanics and footwork with a clean pocket. The issues he has had with them happens when he is under pressure.  He breaks down in a lot of ways under pressure.  That was also the case in college - and it was a big red flag for such a highly drafted prospect.

 

So his footwork isn’t excellent.

 

37 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

Yes, there is more to being a QB than the two things I mentioned.  However I thought they illustrated the differences between a QB prospect as raw as Allen was and one who had a lot less work to do on his fundamentals.  Also I thought what I wrote was plenty long enough already.

But Trubisky clearly has to work on his fundamentals. Saying Allen was a raw prospect is fine. I just don’t see the need to exaggerate how other raw prospects were way more developed compared to him. 

[BarleyNY]

52 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

So his footwork isn’t excellent.

 

But Trubisky clearly has to work on his fundamentals. Saying Allen was a raw prospect is fine. I just don’t see the need to exaggerate how other raw prospects were way more developed compared to him. 

I’m not exaggerating anything when I state that Allen was not nearly as far along in his development as most highly drafted QBs, like Trubisky.  You’re welcome to your opinion that he was, but I don’t know how you justify it.  I’m not saying that every other QB didn’t have work to do, but they could hit a RB in the right flat with a pass.

 

I’m not making any excuses for anyone here either.  I didn’t like the Bills drafting such a raw QB so highly.  Going into the draft I didn’t like Allen’s chances of success due in part to that - and, truthfully, I still don’t.  But I can allow for the possibility that he still might have a shot at developing further.  I’ll leave it there.