TwistofFate Posted May 28, 2020 Posted May 28, 2020 2 hours ago, thebandit27 said: I would like to know what can’t be taught? Because there are a multitude of examples of current NFL QBs that have been coached up dramatically in areas where Allen is deficient. You're missing my point. My comment was referring to Watson's "twelve infants" experiment. But since you're asking...can a coach teach you to be a professional dart thrower, as in, do it for a living? or...a professional billiard? or a bowler? Just throwing out professions that don't require a ton of physical prowess, but demand precision skill sets. These are examples of things you obviously need some natural talent that can then be honed with practice and training.
TwistofFate Posted May 28, 2020 Posted May 28, 2020 4 hours ago, GunnerBill said: They have made relatively good progress through two years in improving that production though, no? Sure, but I would consider it to be more of personal progress than anything. Compared to his peers his growth is minimal. Last in completion %. Last in passing TDs for Qbs who started 16 games. Last in passing yards out of every QB who played 16 games. Last in longest pass out of every Qb who played 16 games. Last in passing yards per game out of every Qb who played 16 games. It's a whole lot of last places for someone who made relatively good progress. His ultimate comparison is against his peers. Realistically he can have small improvements year after year. If he moves into 28th this year in all those categories, its growth, do we stick with him? If he moves into 25th the following year, its growth, do we stick with him? Do you think it's realistic that he jumps to 16-20 in all these categories this season based on what he's done this far? Personally I believe he needs to finish the season in that bracket for me to consider it a successful season with signs of growth. 1
K-9 Posted May 28, 2020 Posted May 28, 2020 22 minutes ago, TwistofFate said: Sure, but I would consider it to be more of personal progress than anything. Compared to his peers his growth is minimal. Last in completion %. Last in passing TDs for Qbs who started 16 games. Last in passing yards out of every QB who played 16 games. Last in longest pass out of every Qb who played 16 games. Last in passing yards per game out of every Qb who played 16 games. It's a whole lot of last places for someone who made relatively good progress. His ultimate comparison is against his peers. Realistically he can have small improvements year after year. If he moves into 28th this year in all those categories, its growth, do we stick with him? If he moves into 25th the following year, its growth, do we stick with him? Do you think it's realistic that he jumps to 16-20 in all these categories this season based on what he's done this far? Personally I believe he needs to finish the season in that bracket for me to consider it a successful season with signs of growth. Lots of team related statistical outcomes placed solely on Allen here. And per the bold text, AGAIN, Allen’s growth is also the most stunted compared to his peers. Has Allen ever shown any passing skill? Ever?
thebandit27 Posted May 28, 2020 Posted May 28, 2020 47 minutes ago, TwistofFate said: You're missing my point. My comment was referring to Watson's "twelve infants" experiment. But since you're asking...can a coach teach you to be a professional dart thrower, as in, do it for a living? or...a professional billiard? or a bowler? Just throwing out professions that don't require a ton of physical prowess, but demand precision skill sets. These are examples of things you obviously need some natural talent that can then be honed with practice and training. Absolutely. That’s basically the central thesis in Gladwell’s Outliers. I mean, sure, if literally everything else (effort, quality of instruction, circumstances, etc) is equal, then natural talent will win out, but that’s almost never the case. Reality is that it’s a combination of factors. Drew Brees didn’t become the most accurate passer in history because he was a natural (quite the opposite actually); he did it because he spent hours upon hours rebuilding, refining, tweaking, adjusting, and honing his upper and lower body mechanics. Same can be said for Brady and his deep passing. He was never a great downfield passer at Michigan; he developed those skills. If you ask Brady, Belichick, or House the one thing that sets him apart from others, it’s the literal obsession that he has with being great. Take something as simple as nutrition: most athletes that take it seriously curtail unhealthy foods and eat clean. Brady is so crazy about it that he won’t eat nightshades. Is that the difference? Most likely not, but the combined effect of that mindset toward all-things-performance is what makes the difference.
ngbills Posted May 28, 2020 Posted May 28, 2020 2 hours ago, thebandit27 said: Absolutely. That’s basically the central thesis in Gladwell’s Outliers. I mean, sure, if literally everything else (effort, quality of instruction, circumstances, etc) is equal, then natural talent will win out, but that’s almost never the case. Reality is that it’s a combination of factors. Drew Brees didn’t become the most accurate passer in history because he was a natural (quite the opposite actually); he did it because he spent hours upon hours rebuilding, refining, tweaking, adjusting, and honing his upper and lower body mechanics. Same can be said for Brady and his deep passing. He was never a great downfield passer at Michigan; he developed those skills. If you ask Brady, Belichick, or House the one thing that sets him apart from others, it’s the literal obsession that he has with being great. Take something as simple as nutrition: most athletes that take it seriously curtail unhealthy foods and eat clean. Brady is so crazy about it that he won’t eat nightshades. Is that the difference? Most likely not, but the combined effect of that mindset toward all-things-performance is what makes the difference. Here is the difference in all of these comparisons around improvements, etc. Brees was a >60% completion guy in 3 years at Purdue. He came to the NFL and did the same and improved upon it. Look at Brady, M Ryan, Rivers, Rodgers, Wilson, Mahomes, Watson, etc and you see the same. All better accuracy in college and similar trend in the NFL. Allen was a 56% completion guy in both years at Wyoming. He actually was sub 60% at his Junior College and even in High School as well. In the NFL he has been the same with a light uptick last year. Yet, we want to assume he will get more accurate and reference that others have done it. Allen would be the exception not the norm. 2
thebandit27 Posted May 28, 2020 Posted May 28, 2020 23 minutes ago, ngbills said: Here is the difference in all of these comparisons around improvements, etc. Brees was a >60% completion guy in 3 years at Purdue. He came to the NFL and did the same and improved upon it. Look at Brady, M Ryan, Rivers, Rodgers, Wilson, Mahomes, Watson, etc and you see the same. All better accuracy in college and similar trend in the NFL. Allen was a 56% completion guy in both years at Wyoming. He actually was sub 60% at his Junior College and even in High School as well. In the NFL he has been the same with a light uptick last year. Yet, we want to assume he will get more accurate and reference that others have done it. Allen would be the exception not the norm. You mean to tell me that the reason that Brees has become the most accurate QB ever is because he was a 60.4% passer as a senior? Do you likewise mean to tell me that Matt Ryan is on your list because his 59% completions as a senior are hugely different from Allen’s 56%? If anything, what the guys you’ve mentioned show is that it’s actually quite typical to see a major increase in completion percentage from college to the pros. It’s almost like guys with talent that are coachable get better with better coaching... 1
GoBills808 Posted May 28, 2020 Posted May 28, 2020 4 hours ago, TwistofFate said: Sure, but I would consider it to be more of personal progress than anything. Compared to his peers his growth is minimal. Last in completion %. Last in passing TDs for Qbs who started 16 games. Last in passing yards out of every QB who played 16 games. Last in longest pass out of every Qb who played 16 games. Last in passing yards per game out of every Qb who played 16 games. It's a whole lot of last places for someone who made relatively good progress. His ultimate comparison is against his peers. Realistically he can have small improvements year after year. If he moves into 28th this year in all those categories, its growth, do we stick with him? If he moves into 25th the following year, its growth, do we stick with him? Do you think it's realistic that he jumps to 16-20 in all these categories this season based on what he's done this far? Personally I believe he needs to finish the season in that bracket for me to consider it a successful season with signs of growth. He didn't play 16 games fml
K-9 Posted May 28, 2020 Posted May 28, 2020 22 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: You mean to tell me that the reason that Brees has become the most accurate QB ever is because he was a 60.4% passer as a senior? Do you likewise mean to tell me that Matt Ryan is on your list because his 59% completions as a senior are hugely different from Allen’s 56%? If anything, what the guys you’ve mentioned show is that it’s actually quite typical to see a major increase in completion percentage from college to the pros. It’s almost like guys with talent that are coachable get better with better coaching... The leading contributor to fixing a lower completion percentage, assuming no drastic problems with mechanics, is experience. As QBs gain experience and knowing where to go with the ball becomes routine, then completion percentage goes up. Simple as that. And that’s Allen’s biggest issue at the moment; experience. But he’s on an upward trajectory as we’ve seen amd there’s no reason to doubt it will continue to improve. Not for nothing, but that answer he gave to Romo about knowing what defenses AREN’T trying to do spoke volumes about his ability to improve mentally.
thebandit27 Posted May 28, 2020 Posted May 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, K-9 said: The leading contributor to fixing a lower completion percentage, assuming no drastic problems with mechanics, is experience. As QBs gain experience and knowing where to go with the ball becomes routine, then completion percentage goes up. Simple as that. And that’s Allen’s biggest issue at the moment; experience. But he’s on an upward trajectory as we’ve seen amd there’s no reason to doubt it will continue to improve. Not for nothing, but that answer he gave to Romo about knowing what defenses AREN’T trying to do spoke volumes about his ability to improve mentally. Indeed. The thing I’ve said about Allen from day 1 is that his issues are highly correlated to him rushing through his process. The game slowed down some for him in year 2, and if it continues to do so there’s no reason that an increased comfort level won’t translate to a smoother process more often. 2
ngbills Posted May 28, 2020 Posted May 28, 2020 29 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: You mean to tell me that the reason that Brees has become the most accurate QB ever is because he was a 60.4% passer as a senior? Do you likewise mean to tell me that Matt Ryan is on your list because his 59% completions as a senior are hugely different from Allen’s 56%? If anything, what the guys you’ve mentioned show is that it’s actually quite typical to see a major increase in completion percentage from college to the pros. It’s almost like guys with talent that are coachable get better with better coaching... Brees was never labeled as inaccurate the way Allen has been. It was a strength that he improved upon not a weakness that he has reversed. Ryan was 62% his Soph and Jr years and dipped to 59+% his Sr year. Overall was still 60%. Those are all higher than Allen has ever achieved at any level. Again, if we were seeing Allen hit 64% one year and 55% another then I would say it is more of a training and consistency issue. But he has only shown to be a lower completion level guy. Right now that is who he is and if you look at history there are not many examples of QB's that guy from being that guy to a different one. I watched Rodgers at Cal practice nearly everyday. He came from a small high school and then JC like Allen. But his accuracy and Allen's are not even close. Rodgers could go 100 straight passes hitting a guy on the numbers. He was that good. It is part of his make up. That is not Allen and he is not likely to become that. The hope is he gets better but I just dont buy the whole he really is not that different than all of these great QB's. He is and everyone knows it including Josh. I would be shocked if he is sitting around making excuses, adding in a few passes here and there that make his numbers look better. He knows it is an issue and will make or break his career. 3
Billl Posted May 28, 2020 Posted May 28, 2020 1 hour ago, thebandit27 said: You mean to tell me that the reason that Brees has become the most accurate QB ever is because he was a 60.4% passer as a senior? Using stats from a generation ago and comparing them to today’s numbers feels a little disingenuous to me. Does it get easier after a while once you get used to it? 1
first_and_ten Posted May 28, 2020 Posted May 28, 2020 On 5/27/2020 at 1:41 PM, Alphadawg7 said: Josh Allen stats on the deep ball in 2019 on throws over 20+ yards: Throwing to John Brown: Passer rating is 109! Throwing to everyone not named John Brown: Passer rating 21! I keep saying it, his deep ball issues had a LOT to do with personnel. He was pretty darn good throwing it to Brown, especially down the stretch. I said MANY times, while he had issues with it, his deep ball got a LOT better down the stretch, especially as he got more comfortable with Brown. Now add in Diggs, the number 1 rated deep ball catcher in the NFL...the number 1 contested ball catcher in the NFL...and people here don't think Allens deep ball and accuracy are not going to improve? Not to mention expected growth from our TE's and easier assignments for Brown and Cole with Diggs drawing more attention away from them. Hahahaha, that is just comical to me. And I cant wait to collect my $100 gentleman's bet from @TwistofFate thats been confirmed in this thread an in DM's as well. I think you misunderstand what I mean. Yes Brown had some long catches. Not all of these fit into the "bomb" category I'm speaking about. You have to admit, your eyes don't lie. he overthrew many "bombs" last year. 1
first_and_ten Posted May 28, 2020 Posted May 28, 2020 18 hours ago, TwistofFate said: Allen led Wyoming to a 16-9 record in his starts, comprising the program’s most successful two-year run since the late 1980s. He beat Mountain West standbys Boise State once and Utah State twice. In all honesty, that is why he had a lens on him. His physical traits are the stuff dreams are made of, his personality and leadership are to die for, but....... the production was never there. By the looks of things, the Bills brass believe this production could be coached. To be honest this is looking more and more like a John B. Watson "twelve infants" experiment than anything else. Some things, just cant be taught. I find it amazing you haven't changed your mind about him after watching him in his second year. Were you even watching? Maybe you compare all QBs to the kid in KC, I don't know.
thebandit27 Posted May 28, 2020 Posted May 28, 2020 28 minutes ago, Billl said: Using stats from a generation ago and comparing them to today’s numbers feels a little disingenuous to me. Does it get easier after a while once you get used to it? Let me see if I understand what you’re asking: you’re asking me to explain why another poster brought up passers “from a generation ago” (who all happen to still be playing by the way) to compare them to Allen? Or are you asking me why I responded to his question? Either way, I think that your response is targeting the wrong poster for what you are implying
Billl Posted May 28, 2020 Posted May 28, 2020 20 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Let me see if I understand what you’re asking: you’re asking me to explain why another poster brought up passers “from a generation ago” (who all happen to still be playing by the way) to compare them to Allen? Or are you asking me why I responded to his question? Either way, I think that your response is targeting the wrong poster for what you are implying Brees isn’t in college. He was a senior 20 years ago. Talking about completion percentages 20 years ago as if they are analogous to completion percentages today is a dishonest comparison. Brees completed over 60% of his passes in college 20 years ago when the game was played differently. He was a very accurate passer in college, but comparing numbers from a guy who played in 1997 to a guy who played 2 years ago is a false equivalency. 1
BigBillsFan Posted May 28, 2020 Posted May 28, 2020 44 minutes ago, first_and_ten said: I find it amazing you haven't changed your mind about him after watching him in his second year. Were you even watching? Maybe you compare all QBs to the kid in KC, I don't know. I watched the 2nd half of the season where he only had 2 good games out of 7. That's what worries me. You might count the Broncos game, but that's it, 2 out of 7 and maybe 3 out of 7 if you think he was great during the Broncos game.
first_and_ten Posted May 28, 2020 Posted May 28, 2020 1 minute ago, BigBillsFan said: I watched the 2nd half of the season where he only had 2 good games out of 7. That's what worries me. You might count the Broncos game, but that's it, 2 out of 7 and maybe 3 out of 7 if you think he was great during the Broncos game. He doesn't always have to be great, does he?
Bangarang Posted May 28, 2020 Posted May 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, first_and_ten said: He doesn't always have to be great, does he? what’s your definition of great?
thebandit27 Posted May 28, 2020 Posted May 28, 2020 16 minutes ago, Billl said: Brees isn’t in college. He was a senior 20 years ago. Talking about completion percentages 20 years ago as if they are analogous to completion percentages today is a dishonest comparison. Brees completed over 60% of his passes in college 20 years ago when the game was played differently. He was a very accurate passer in college, but comparing numbers from a guy who played in 1997 to a guy who played 2 years ago is a false equivalency. And if I had compared Brees’ completion percentage in college to Allen’s then I could see why you’d be making this argument. I didn’t. I responded to a post from someone else as to whether certain skill sets can be developed vs being innate. I mentioned Brees as an example of a guy that made a meteoric improvement in one particular football trait and Brady as a guy that made a similar improvement in another. Then a different poster asked me to look at college stats from players that you said played a generation ago, so I responded.
YattaOkasan Posted May 29, 2020 Posted May 29, 2020 12 hours ago, TwistofFate said: Sure, but I would consider it to be more of personal progress than anything. Compared to his peers his growth is minimal. Last in completion %. Last in passing TDs for Qbs who started 16 games. Last in passing yards out of every QB who played 16 games. Last in longest pass out of every Qb who played 16 games. Last in passing yards per game out of every Qb who played 16 games. It's a whole lot of last places for someone who made relatively good progress. His ultimate comparison is against his peers. Realistically he can have small improvements year after year. If he moves into 28th this year in all those categories, its growth, do we stick with him? If he moves into 25th the following year, its growth, do we stick with him? Do you think it's realistic that he jumps to 16-20 in all these categories this season based on what he's done this far? Personally I believe he needs to finish the season in that bracket for me to consider it a successful season with signs of growth. Hahahaha you clearly don’t know how many QBs started every game. I think it’s realistic he jumps to 16-20 because in last place for the category of QBs that started 16 this year he was 13th. Dude is average and considering some we’re saying he would never amount to anything I think that’s proving doubters wrong. As bandit said the game is gonna keep slowing down for him. He wasn’t in JUCO cause he was dumb. Kid is sharp and if he can get his mechanics consistent (particularly on the deep ball) I’m confident he’ll have a great season.
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