Josh's passing stats for 2019 aren't as bad as many people think.

[CommonCents]

Bryce Petty likes CFB stats. 

[GoBills808]

2 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

 

Come on, lets be serious here.  Stats matter and go a pretty long way in assessing your capability.  Fromm fell to us in the 5th.  If his stats last year mirrored his previous two years at Georgia, he goes day one.  His fall off in stats is what made scouts begin to question his ability.

Speaking as someone who watched a ton of June Jones QBs come and go I can safely say you have no idea what you’re talking about.

10 minutes ago, CommonCents said:

Bryce Petty likes CFB stats. 

So does Colt Brennan. 

[K-9]

2 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

 

Come on, lets be serious here.  Stats matter and go a pretty long way in assessing your capability.  Fromm fell to us in the 5th.  If his stats last year mirrored his previous two years at Georgia, he goes day one.  His fall off in stats is what made scouts begin to question his ability.

Jake Fromm was never considered a day one prospect. Ever. As per the bold text, this defies all scouting logic. 

[TwistofFate]

2 minutes ago, K-9 said:

I laugh because as I explained in my answer “intangibles” and other non passing aspects are valued more than other attributes, Beane implies this in your posted article, and yet you ask the question why would they trade up and spend so much on a project. And then you see fit to post yet more stats to say Allen sucks. On one hand you appreciate attributes unrelated to passing the ball and on the other you seem to dismiss them as not important. 
 

As I said, there’s a difference between being a quarterback and being a passer. We will know soon enough about Josh Allen. In the meantime, while it may be amusing, it’s meaningless to project his career path based on what other QBs have done in their first two years. But his trajectory since his senior year in high school has done nothing but rise. There’s reason to believe that will continue based on his history as he acquires more experience at the position. 
 

 

What i'm trying to say is why put so much solely on intangibles and physical traits?  Why take a risk that big when the main body of his work, his actual production on the field, is so low?  Why not look for the "it" factor, but also have stats to back it up?

15 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Jake Fromm was never considered a day one prospect. Ever. As per the bold text, this defies all scouting logic. 

 That's just untrue.  In his draft day thread, (i believe) I posted many, many, articles predicting him to go first day, maybe first overall, prior to right before his last season started.

[K-9]

8 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

What i'm trying to say is why put so much solely on intangibles and physical traits?  Why take a risk that big when the main body of his work, his actual production on the field, is so low?  Why not look for the "it" factor, but also have stats to back it up?

 That's just untrue.  In his draft day thread, (i believe) I posted many, many, articles predicting him to go first day, maybe first overall, prior to right before his last season started.

Prior to his last season starting? That explains it. NFL scouts don’t start the process in earnest until August and won’t have a preliminary book on most prospects until the Senior Bowl at the earliest. Even later for juniors who declare, like Fromm, who won’t be issued a preliminary grade until after the combine. 

 

I’m sure there was no shortage of talking head pundits, draftniks, and other wannabe scouts who took everything Fromm did his first two years and made projections based on that last summer, but that’s just not real world, brass tacks talent evaluation. 

[Billl]

14 hours ago, K-9 said:

I can find dozens with better college stats who never made it to the NFL, let alone became a top seven pick, let alone started 27 of their first 28 games in the NFL. All with precious little refined experience at the position to boot. 

Good stats in college don’t necessarily translate to NFL success, but bad college stats almost always translate to lack of NFL success.    

[C.Biscuit97]

17 hours ago, K-9 said:

Let’s not act like Craig Bohl is some QB producing machine or the his schools are QB factories. And again, Wentz’s relative experience exceeded that of Allen’s. 

With all due respect, how does this make any sense?  The guy produced two top 10 qb picks in 5 years at Wyoming and North Dakota State!!! That is the ultimate sign of great coaching.  Maybe Allen’s college coaching isn’t this pee wee football coaching you thought.  

14 hours ago, Bangarang said:

Case Keenum broke NCAA passing records and still went undrafted. 
 

Fromm fell to us because he has an inferior NFL arm.
 

Ability and projectable NFL traits matter more than just blindly looking at stats.

 

While great college stats predict nothing in the nfl, it is extremely rare to find guys who didn’t dominant becoming greatplayers in the NFL.  Allen was rarely dominant in the MWC.  He has struggled to maintain a dominant game in the pros so far.  That’s what worries me long term.  I think he will be a guy we will always debate because he will always lack consistency.  He has never done it on any level, even a lower tier D 1 conference and now he is going to do it in the NFL?  That seems like a huge bet to make.  
 

luckily, they have built a really strong team around him and he doesn’t really have to win games now. 

[C.Biscuit97]

42 minutes ago, Billl said:

Good stats in college don’t necessarily translate to NFL success, but bad college stats almost always translate to lack of NFL success.    

I do think it is an interesting question. If you weighed where they played (you deserve more credit for better stats in the SEC than the MWC), in the last 10 years (maybe even longer), has there been a 1st round qb with a less impressive college resume than Allen?  Gabbert was up there and he sucks.  But I struggle to think of many more.

[Dr. Who]

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

I do think it is an interesting question. If you weighed where they played (you deserve more credit for better stats in the SEC than the MWC), in the last 10 years (maybe even longer), has there been a 1st round qb with a less impressive college resume than Allen?  Gabbert was up there and he sucks.  But I struggle to think of many more.

You and the Chiefs' fan can cogitate on that interesting question. The only thing that matters is how Allen develops. 

[K-9]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

With all due respect, how does this make any sense?  The guy produced two top 10 qb picks in 5 years at Wyoming and North Dakota State!!! That is the ultimate sign of great coaching.  Maybe Allen’s college coaching isn’t this pee wee football coaching you thought.  

While great college stats predict nothing in the nfl, it is extremely rare to find guys who didn’t dominant becoming greatplayers in the NFL.  Allen was rarely dominant in the MWC.  He has struggled to maintain a dominant game in the pros so far.  That’s what worries me long term.  I think he will be a guy we will always debate because he will always lack consistency.  He has never done it on any level, even a lower tier D 1 conference and now he is going to do it in the NFL?  That seems like a huge bet to make.  
 

luckily, they have built a really strong team around him and he doesn’t really have to win games now. 

Craig Bohl, QB whisperer. Say it with me! 

 

Craig Bohl has never been known as an some offensive minded savant . Indeed, his bio indicates strong experience on the D side; both as a player and coach. The ONLY reason he “produced” Wentz and Allen is because they both possess freakish physical traits that couldn’t be ignored by the NFL scouts. 
 

 

1 hour ago, Billl said:

Good stats in college don’t necessarily translate to NFL success, but bad college stats almost always translate to lack of NFL success.    

The point is college stats aren’t a reliable indicator of NFL success, regardless. But they come in handy when pushing an agenda. 

[dakrider]

Allen's 2 years under his belt with a suspect offense if really going to help him this year.  Bills should have a good running game and a good receiver corps for the first time in years. I don't think any QB would have had significantly better stats for Bills than Allen did.  This team just had to many offensive weaknesses.  

I really think the 2020 Bills offense isn't even going to resemble the last 2 years. 

[first_and_ten]

On 5/14/2020 at 7:42 PM, tomur67 said:

       In 16 games Josh  completed 271 passes in 461 attempts for a 58.8%.  If he had 2 more completions per game, that would give him 303 completions for a 64.3% average, which is in the range of most NFL quarterbacks.  Yes, there are some QB's with higher completion averages.  For example,  Drew Brees  led the NFL with a 74.3 completion average, but his completion yardage was 2,979 yards, less than Josh's 3089 yards. It looks like Brees and a few other QB's are throwing a few more screen passes or dump off passes than Josh threw.  Plus you have to figure in drops.  All in all, I'm not worried at all about Josh"s accuracy issue,  In my humble opinion, it's not an issue.

 

The only think I see is that he needs to improve on the deep ball.

[Alphadawg7]

On 5/24/2020 at 10:18 PM, first_and_ten said:

 

The only think I see is that he needs to improve on the deep ball.

 

Josh Allen stats on the deep ball in 2019 on throws over 20+ yards:

 

Throwing to John Brown:  Passer rating is 109!

Throwing to everyone not named John Brown:  Passer rating 21!

 

I keep saying it, his deep ball issues had a LOT to do with personnel.  He was pretty darn good throwing it to Brown, especially down the stretch.  I said MANY times, while he had issues with it, his deep ball got a LOT better down the stretch, especially as he got more comfortable with Brown.

 

Now add in Diggs, the number 1 rated deep ball catcher in the NFL...the number 1 contested ball catcher in the NFL...and people here don't think Allens deep ball and accuracy are not going to improve?  Not to mention expected growth from our TE's and easier assignments for Brown and Cole with Diggs drawing more attention away from them.  Hahahaha, that is just comical to me.  And I cant wait to collect my $100 gentleman's bet from @TwistofFate thats been confirmed in this thread an in DM's as well.  

[starrymessenger]

I'm more concerned about McD transitioning from DC to HC than I am about JA developing into a NFL calibre passer. If McD continues to play not to lose it may not matter what Allen can do. With what he had to work with Jauron had little wiggle room. Bills now have plenty enough talent on O make some noise. It's not just up to Allen to make productive use of those tools.

[TwistofFate]

7 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Josh Allen stats on the deep ball in 2019 on throws over 20+ yards:

 

Throwing to John Brown:  Passer rating is 109!

Throwing to everyone not named John Brown:  Passer rating 21!

 

I keep saying it, his deep ball issues had a LOT to do with personnel.  He was pretty darn good throwing it to Brown, especially down the stretch.  I said MANY times, while he had issues with it, his deep ball got a LOT better down the stretch, especially as he got more comfortable with Brown.

 

Now add in Diggs, the number 1 rated deep ball catcher in the NFL...the number 1 contested ball catcher in the NFL...and people here don't think Allens deep ball and accuracy are not going to improve?  Not to mention expected growth from our TE's and easier assignments for Brown and Cole with Diggs drawing more attention away from them.  Hahahaha, that is just comical to me.  And I cant wait to collect my $100 gentleman's bet from @TwistofFate thats been confirmed in this thread an in DM's as well.  

Everyone is right until someone is wrong.  ☺ 

[TwistofFate]

On 5/23/2020 at 8:30 PM, Bangarang said:

Case Keenum broke NCAA passing records and still went undrafted. 
 

Fromm fell to us because he has an inferior NFL arm.
 

Ability and projectable NFL traits matter more than just blindly looking at stats.

 

Im not saying stats are the end all be all, but 9 times out of 10, you aren't even on an NFL radar unless you are putting up big numbers against the best college has to offer.  Hell, you aren't even on college scouts radar unless you are putting up huge numbers in high school.  Stats are what catch the attention, if you arent putting them up, you aren't even looked at in most cases.

 

Sorry, I don't buy this inferior arm stuff.

 

Joe Montana, QB, Notre Dame

“He can thread the needle, but usually goes with his primary receiver and forces the ball to him even when he’s in a crowd. He’s a gutty, gambling, cocky type. Doesn’t have great tools, but could eventually start.” – Anonymous scout, 1979

Edited May 28, 2020 by TwistofFate

[K-9]

22 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Im not saying stats are the end all be all, but 9 times out of 10, you aren't even on an NFL radar unless you are putting up big numbers against the best college has to offer.  Hell, you aren't even on college scouts radar unless you are putting up huge numbers in high school.  Stats are what catch the attention, if you arent putting them up, you aren't even looked at in most cases.

Precisely. Which is what makes Allen’s ascension all the more amazing. And he’s still early on in his learning phase to boot. 

[TwistofFate]

19 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Precisely. Which is what makes Allen’s ascension all the more amazing. And he’s still early on in his learning phase to boot. 

Allen led Wyoming to a 16-9 record in his starts, comprising the program’s most successful two-year run since the late 1980s. He beat Mountain West standbys Boise State once and Utah State twice.

 

In all honesty, that is why he had a lens on him.  His physical traits are the stuff dreams are made of, his personality and leadership are to die for, but....... the production was never there. 

 

By the looks of things, the Bills brass believe this production could be coached.  To be honest this is looking more and more like a John B. Watson "twelve infants" experiment than anything else.  Some things, just cant be taught.

Edited May 28, 2020 by TwistofFate

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

Allen led Wyoming to a 16-9 record in his starts, comprising the program’s most successful two-year run since the late 1980s. He beat Mountain West standbys Boise State once and Utah State twice.

 

In all honesty, that is why he had a lens on him.  His physical traits are the stuff dreams are made of, his personality and leadership are to die for, but....... the production was never there. 

 

By the looks of things, the Bills brass believe this production could be coached.  To be honest this is looking more and more like a John B. Watson "twelve infants" experiment than anything else.  Some things, just cant be taught.

 

They have made relatively good progress through two years in improving that production though, no?

[thebandit27]

9 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

Allen led Wyoming to a 16-9 record in his starts, comprising the program’s most successful two-year run since the late 1980s. He beat Mountain West standbys Boise State once and Utah State twice.

 

In all honesty, that is why he had a lens on him.  His physical traits are the stuff dreams are made of, his personality and leadership are to die for, but....... the production was never there. 

 

By the looks of things, the Bills brass believe this production could be coached.  To be honest this is looking more and more like a John B. Watson "twelve infants" experiment than anything else.  Some things, just cant be taught.

I would like to know what can’t be taught? Because there are a multitude of examples of current NFL QBs that have been coached up dramatically in areas where Allen is deficient.