Josh's passing stats for 2019 aren't as bad as many people think.

[Motorin']

10 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

Me neither.  Contrary to popular belief I really like Allen.  I think he's a great kid, a hard worker, a great leader and someone kids could look up to.  When it comes to his game play though, he leaves me wanting much more.  I like data and tend to side with it above all else.

Fair enough. And it is true, as you show, that the rules are more favorable to QB's in the 2010's than they were in the 2000's, just like it was more favorable in the 2000's than than was in the 90's.

 

Here's what I don't understand, if the rules make it more favorable for QB success now than in past decades, and there are numerous examples of QB's of the past having horrendous first seasons who went on to improve and become franchise QB's, why would that be less likely now? Wouldn't more favorable rules applied to hitting the QB and WR's mean that there's more for growth? And why do you discount evidence of past QB's with terrible early years going on to become franchise QB's because it was harder to play the position then?

 

Certainly human nature hasn't changed in the last 20 years. People still have the ability to grow. 

Edited May 23, 2020 by Motorin'

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 5/22/2020 at 8:24 AM, Billl said:

If I were to give you a list of two groups QBs according to their metric, but I will leave Allen out.  (I’m assuming this is based on 2018 data.)

 

It is 2018 data which makes it pointless in trying to predict Allen's future. 

 

Let's take the most raw 1st round QB to come out of college in about 10 years or more and pin all his future on what he does in his rookie year with a terrible supporting cast? Terrible idea. Allen made a huge leap from year 1 to year 2. He's not likely to make as huge a percentage  leap from year 2 to 3 but even a modest jumps in percentage will have him putting up some really good numbers for a third year QB that was again, the most raw 1st round QB coming out of college in a long time.

[Bangarang]

1 minute ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

It is 2018 data which makes it pointless in trying to predict Allen's future. 

 

Let's take the most raw 1st round QB to come out of college in about 10 years or more and pin all his future on what he does in his rookie year with a terrible supporting cast? Terrible idea. Allen made a huge leap from year 1 to year 2. He's not likely to make as huge a percentage  leap from year 2 to 3 but even a modest jumps in percentage will have him putting up some really good numbers for a third year QB that was again, the most raw 1st round QB coming out of college in a long time.

Josh might be the most raw QB to come out of the draft in its history

 

I heard he never even learned to throw a football until after we drafted him. Just crazy.

[Billl]

20 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

Josh might be the most raw QB to come out of the draft in its history

 

I heard he never even learned to throw a football until after we drafted him. Just crazy.

His middle school coaching set him back decades.

[GoBills808]

If Bills fans want to talk ***** about the QB amongst each other I sort of get it but doing it w a Chiefs fan is weak 

[Ralonzo]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

Josh might be the most raw QB to come out of the draft in its history

 

I heard he never even learned to throw a football until after we drafted him. Just crazy.

 

Ahem. This guy was so raw he didn't know what a football was.

[K-9]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

Josh might be the most raw QB to come out of the draft in its history

 

I heard he never even learned to throw a football until after we drafted him. Just crazy.

 

1 hour ago, Billl said:

His middle school coaching set him back decades.

You guys laugh, but it reveals a real lack of insight into the world of elite QB development. That relative lack of experience at the position is a major disadvantage to those who’ve been groomed for the position since high school. By most standards, Josh Allen shouldn’t even have had a chance to play in a lesser D1 college conference, let alone get drafted by an NFL team, let alone become the 7th overall pick in the draft. His learning curve is as atypical as it gets. 

[thebandit27]

31 minutes ago, K-9 said:

 

You guys laugh, but it reveals a real lack of insight into the world of elite QB development. That relative lack of experience at the position is a major disadvantage to those who’ve been groomed for the position since high school. By most standards, Josh Allen shouldn’t even have had a chance to play in a lesser D1 college conference, let alone get drafted by an NFL team, let alone become the 7th overall pick in the draft. His learning curve is as atypical as it gets. 

Yeah but what do you know about it?

[Bangarang]

37 minutes ago, K-9 said:

 

You guys laugh, but it reveals a real lack of insight into the world of elite QB development. That relative lack of experience at the position is a major disadvantage to those who’ve been groomed for the position since high school. By most standards, Josh Allen shouldn’t even have had a chance to play in a lesser D1 college conference, let alone get drafted by an NFL team, let alone become the 7th overall pick in the draft. His learning curve is as atypical as it gets. 

Why so serious?

[K-9]

9 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

Why so serious?

Not so much serious as less dismissive of relevant experience factors when comparing Allen’s first two years to the first two years of a list of other QBs going back 10 years. If all things were equal, perhaps that comparison would have more credibility, but as it is, it’s lacking because it assumes all the QBs on that 10 year list were as disadvantaged entering the NFL as Allen was. 
 

Allen has defied the odds since his senior year of high school, his trajectory continues to point up, and he’s still a greenhorn relative to other QBs with two years under their belts. 

[TwistofFate]

3 hours ago, Motorin' said:

Fair enough. And it is true, as you show, that the rules are more favorable to QB's in the 2010's than they were in the 2000's, just like it was more favorable in the 2000's than than was in the 90's.

 

Here's what I don't understand, if the rules make it more favorable for QB success now than in past decades, and there are numerous examples of QB's of the past having horrendous first seasons who went on to improve and become franchise QB's, why would that be less likely now? Wouldn't more favorable rules applied to hitting the QB and WR's mean that there's more for growth? And why do you discount evidence of past QB's with terrible early years going on to become franchise QB's because it was harder to play the position then?

 

Certainly human nature hasn't changed in the last 20 years. People still have the ability to grow. 

I'm using data sets from this era, 10 years.  I'm comparing him to every Qb's first two years since 2010.  In that span, this "golden era" there isn't one Qb who is a franchise guy who's numbers are comparable to Allen first 2 years.  They are either back ups, journeymen or completely out of the league.

 

I'm not saying Allen can't or won't, I'm saying the data is saying if he does, he's a statistical anomaly, not the norm.  If I were to make a bet based on what the data says, I'd bet against him, and I have with members on this board.  Betting against someone doesn't mean you are rooting against them or wish for them to fail, it simply means you don't believe they can based on what you know.

 

I think year 3 is crucial for Allen.  If he doesn't catapult himself into the middle of the pack of NFL Qbs this year, at minimum, I do not think they pick up his 5th year option.  That is a tall task to ask, but I think that is the kind of jump that is realistically expected of him.  His improvements from his rookie year are noticeable, but in the grand scheme of things his ultimate competition is against his peers where his improvements, when  weighed against them, is at best, minimal.  He is still ranked near the bottom of the league in multiple major categories.  Development of Qbs in this Era is completely different.  You shouldn't be waiting 5-6 years for Qb's to become moderately successful, not with the ways these rules are designed.  You got 3 years, TOPS.  Realistically, inside of 2 years you know what you have and year 3 is confirmation of your assessment.

 

I really do like Allen.  I watch everything I can on him.  I would love for him to be the franchise guy for years and lead us out of Qb purgatory, because he is Buffalo DNA.  The infamous 4th and 1 says everything it needs to about him.  But....frankly, im just not that optimistic about him anymore until he goes out there and proves it.

[TwistofFate]

1 hour ago, K-9 said:

 

You guys laugh, but it reveals a real lack of insight into the world of elite QB development. That relative lack of experience at the position is a major disadvantage to those who’ve been groomed for the position since high school. By most standards, Josh Allen shouldn’t even have had a chance to play in a lesser D1 college conference, let alone get drafted by an NFL team, let alone become the 7th overall pick in the draft. His learning curve is as atypical as it gets. 

 

I understand what you are saying, but that then begs the question....why?  Why in the world would you waste multiple years of team success, draft picks to MOVE UP for such a risky project, and put your own job in jeopardy by making such a risky selection.  All of the odds are clearly stacked against you.  You had a Mahomes and Watson sitting there in '17 yet here you were in '18.  Makes zero sense IMO.

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, K-9 said:

 

You guys laugh, but it reveals a real lack of insight into the world of elite QB development. That relative lack of experience at the position is a major disadvantage to those who’ve been groomed for the position since high school. By most standards, Josh Allen shouldn’t even have had a chance to play in a lesser D1 college conference, let alone get drafted by an NFL team, let alone become the 7th overall pick in the draft. His learning curve is as atypical as it gets. 

Again, his college coach was Carson Wentz’s. How many coaches have produced two top 10 picks qbs in history, much less than 5 years apart?

9 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

 

I understand what you are saying, but that then begs the question....why?  Why in the world would you waste multiple years of team success, draft picks to MOVE UP for such a risky project, and put your own job in jeopardy by making such a risky selection.  All of the odds are clearly stacked against you.  You had a Mahomes and Watson sitting there in '17 yet here you were in '18.  Makes zero sense IMO.

And that’s some of us aren’t as sold on Allen.  It’s the nfl and it’s never been easier to play qb.  We are trying to make a guy be better in the nfl than he was at Wyoming.  It’s insanely risky and it’s not like we have brilliant offensive minds coaching him here.

Edited May 23, 2020 by C.Biscuit97

[HappyDays]

5 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

You had a Mahomes and Watson sitting there in '17 yet here you were in '18.  Makes zero sense IMO.

 

This is the worst kind of hindsight. Here are snippets from a scouting report on player A:

 

a big, confident quarterback who brings a variety of physical tools to the party, but he's developed some bad habits and doesn't have a very repeatable process as a passer.

 

ability to improvise and extend plays can lead to big plays for his offense, but he will have to prove he can operate with better anticipation and be willing to take what the defense gives him in order to win from the pocket.

 

Can be inconsistent in his approach


Needs to play inside the offense and show more discipline

Willingness to default to playground style appears to limit his ability to get into a consistent rhythm


Needs to improve anticipatory reads and learn to take what the defense gives him


Decision making can go from good to bad in a moment's notice


Operates from a narrow base and allows his upper body and arm to race ahead of his feet

 

Explosive delivery and follow-through causes some throws to sail


Needs better touch on intermediate and deep balls

 

Will leave pocket prematurely rather than standing in and winning in rhythm

 

Here's a scouting report on player B:

 

the biggest boom-or-bust quarterback prospect in the draft.

 

can make some truly special throws, but his ability to improve the mental part of his game will determine whether he's a good NFL starter or just another big, strong-armed guy.

 

Accuracy diminishes greatly when he's forced to move his feet


Takes too many chances with low percentage throws


Needs to play smarter and place higher value on the ball


Fastball pitcher whose touch could use improvement short


Will baby the deep throws at times


Field-reading is spotty

Anticipatory throws don't seem to come naturally

Breaks from pocket without cause throwing off his timing with receivers


Doesn't keep feet "throw-ready" when sliding in pocket


Frequently defaults to off-platform throws when there is time to set feet and deliver

 

Which player is Pat Mahomes and which player is Josh Allen?

[Billl]

12 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is the worst kind of hindsight. Here are snippets from a scouting report on player A:

 

 

 

 

Here's a scouting report on player B:

 

 

 

 

Which player is Pat Mahomes and which player is Josh Allen?

Pat Mahomes is the one who threw 41 TDs and 10 INTs and 5052 yards his junior/final season.  Allen is the one who threw 16 TDs and 6 INTs with 1812 yards his junior/final season.

 

If you take Pat’s three most prolific games his final season (Arizona State, Oklahoma, and Baylor) he threw for 1860 yards, 16 TDs, and 3 INTs.

Edited May 23, 2020 by Billl

[TwistofFate]

13 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is the worst kind of hindsight. Here are snippets from a scouting report on player A:

 

 

 

 

Here's a scouting report on player B:

 

 

 

 

Which player is Pat Mahomes and which player is Josh Allen?

Now post their college stats and college accomplishments next to their scouting report. 

 

At that point it becomes a no brainer on which Qb has more potential and which has a bigger bust potential. 

 

Apples to Apples friend. 

 

Mahomes looks the part of his college stats, as does Allen. 

Edited May 23, 2020 by TwistofFate

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, K-9 said:

Not so much serious as less dismissive of relevant experience factors when comparing Allen’s first two years to the first two years of a list of other QBs going back 10 years. If all things were equal, perhaps that comparison would have more credibility, but as it is, it’s lacking because it assumes all the QBs on that 10 year list were as disadvantaged entering the NFL as Allen was. 
 

Allen has defied the odds since his senior year of high school, his trajectory continues to point up, and he’s still a greenhorn relative to other QBs with two years under their belts. 

 

Correct. Using that list is not a good use of statistics. Past results in a vacuum do not predict future results - i.e. the gambler's fallacy. It's like if you had a friend who always drove way over the speed limit, drove drunk, and never wore his seatbelt. You call him out on it and he says "but the chance of dying in a car wreck is only 1 in 100,000." Sure, for everyone else. But for him the probability is different because of the other factors.

 

Allen is a QB who has gotten better at every stage of his career, from college to year 1 in the NFL to year 2 in the NFL. And I for one thought he played better in the 2nd half of year 2 than in the first half. A consistent upwards trajectory. You can't use completely different QBs in completely different situations to predict where he will end up.

 

The funny thing about this discussion is I think every single person involved has the same idea - Allen was better in year 2 than in year 1, and he needs to continue to get better to be a franchise QB. If anyone disagrees with either of those two points they're on a different planet. So how about we just wait and see what happens? Anyone who claims to know how likely it is that he'll become a franchise QB is lying. No amount of data can make that conclusion.

[HappyDays]

11 minutes ago, Billl said:

Pat Mahomes is the one who threw 41 TDs and 10 INTs and 5052 yards his junior/final season.  Allen is the one who threw 16 TDs and 6 INTs with 1812 yards his junior/final season.

 

No one cares about college stats in scouting a player for the NFL. I could find and post countless examples of this not mattering, but do you really need me to?

[CommonCents]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

No one cares about college stats in scouting a player for the NFL. I could find and post countless examples of this not mattering, but do you really need me to?

I like Allen, have since before we drafted him. On the Mahomes scouting report it ignores Pat’s ability to change arm angles and flip the ball almost anywhere without having his feet set. That was there in college, scouts are just so set on their expectations of mechanics and how it is supposed to look that they sometimes miss the obvious.

 

FWIW, before the draft some of us had a similar discussion on Allen’s tape. He showed the ability to make anticipatory throws without having his base set. 

 

Allen’s going to be good, probably not a Mahomes but the doubters will soon be put to bed. 

[Bangarang]

2 hours ago, K-9 said:

Not so much serious as less dismissive of relevant experience factors when comparing Allen’s first two years to the first two years of a list of other QBs going back 10 years. If all things were equal, perhaps that comparison would have more credibility, but as it is, it’s lacking because it assumes all the QBs on that 10 year list were as disadvantaged entering the NFL as Allen was. 
 

Allen has defied the odds since his senior year of high school, his trajectory continues to point up, and he’s still a greenhorn relative to other QBs with two years under their belts. 

Not all QBs get to throw rocks on a farm though. Only Allen can claim the kind of mental and physical toughness it takes to do that. That’s gotta be more valuable than any fancy schmancy passing academy.