Josh's passing stats for 2019 aren't as bad as many people think.

[Bss]

5 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

You are talking about something completely different.

 

I'm talking about statistics using in-depth metrics in terms of having a franchise quarterback.

 

And if you want to bring ANY/A into the picture, it gets even more concerning for Allen. 

 

In the last 10 years, no Qb with his ANY/A in their first two years, and at least 300 attempts is a franchise Qb. 

 

So you're only further proving the point. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny.fcgi?id=zRZOG

The guy just below Josh just put up a monster regular season, turned around a 2-4 team, made it to the AFCCG and at least got paid like a franchise quarterback

[TwistofFate]

7 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

I’m asking you to cite the reference for your statement that those two statistics are the ones that define a franchise QB.

 

And I think you’re going off a flawed data set if the idea is to compare Allen after two seasons to QBs that have had 6+ seasons in the NFL.

 

If you limited the analysis to QBs after their first 450 attempts (or something) and compared them, you’d have a more comparable data set.

 

And no, it doesn’t “prove” anything.

See, in this lies the problem.   You don't even understand the data that's being supplied. 

 

The link I provided shows the first two years of every Qb in the league.   Its not comparing a guy with 6 years vs a guy with 2.  Its comparing all of them in their first two years.

 

As ive already stated, not one Qb in the last 10 years has ever produced the ANY/A Allen has in their first two years and become a franchise Qb. 

 

Its another data set that goes against your argument and you don't even understand it. 

 

The majority of the anaylicts I trust are from Sports Info Solutions. 

[TwistofFate]

1 hour ago, Bss said:

The guy just below Josh just put up a monster regular season, turned around a 2-4 team, made it to the AFCCG and at least got paid like a franchise quarterback

In his 8th year?   Is he a franchise Qb? 

 

Those stats are his first two years in the league!!!  The whole list is everyone's first two years in the league dating back 10 years. 

 

Its an equal comparison. 

 

None of them with a rating as low as Allens are a franchise Qb.   In fact it can be argued that none up to and icluding Dalton are not franchise guys.

 

That's 10 years of data using the exact data that poster felt was criteria essential for being a franchise quarterback.  That data actually proves he's not.

[TwistofFate]

3 hours ago, Motorin' said:

So you don't care that Allen's ANY/A improved 30% from year 1 to year 2. No chance of similar improvement?

 

A similar improvement from his year 2 performance would put him in the top 5 of the list you provided...

There's definitely a "chance," but 10 years of data is pretty evident the numbers at the end of 2 years and at least 300 attempts,  is a pretty good indicator of who you are going to be. 

 

A lot of you simply don't understand, if Allen breaks the trends of all the data, he's not the status quo, he's an anomaly.  He's 9th in the line up, at bat with bases loaded, down by 3 in the bottom of the 9th, with two outs. 

 

Can it happen, sure?   Would I like for it to happen and the Qb drought to be over?  Absolutely. 

 

Would i bet he does it?   Absolutely not. 

 

  

 

Edited May 22, 2020 by TwistofFate

[TheyCallMeAndy]

For the record, Josh's stats were not bad at all.

[Motorin']

46 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

See, in this lies the problem.   You don't even understand the data that's being supplied. 

 

The link I provided shows the first two years of every Qb in the league.   Its not comparing a guy with 6 years vs a guy with 2.  Its comparing all of them in their first two years.

 

As ive already stated, not one Qb in the last 10 years has ever produced the ANY/A Allen has in their first two years and become a franchise Qb. 

 

Its another data set that goes against your argument and you don't even understand it. 

 

The majority of the anaylicts I trust are from Sports Info Solutions. 

 

Josh Allen's 2nd year stats in ANY/A are better than the 2nd and 3rd year average of Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill, Case Keenum and Teddy Bridgewater and within a hair of Dak Prescott, Andy Dalton and Cam Newton. 

 

Are you really insisting that Josh can't be as good or better than any of those QB's bc his rookie year's stats skew him lower then them, even if his 2nd year was better than theirs was? Is he really always defined by his rookie year? His second year growth doesn't count? And he can't get better in his third year because his rookie stats have historical precedents? 

 

Then I guess you've got the magic analytic combo, as long as anyone who doubts it's predictive power has to tie one hand behind their back any only follow the rules you set.

Edited May 22, 2020 by Motorin'

[TwistofFate]

48 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

Josh Allen's 2nd year stats in ANY/A are better than the 2nd and 3rd year average of Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill, Case Keenum and Teddy Bridgewater and within a hair of Dak Prescott, Andy Dalton and Cam Newton. 

 

Are you really insisting that Josh can't be as good or better than any of those QB's bc his rookie year's stats skew him lower then them, even if his 2nd year was better than theirs was? Is he really always defined by his rookie year? His second year growth doesn't count? And he can't get better in his third year because his rookie stats have historical precedents? 

 

Then I guess you've got the magic analytic combo, as long as anyone who doubts it's predictive power has to tie one hand behind their back any only follow the rules you set.

Again, the only one out of the group you mentioned who can legitimately called a franchise guy is Cam.  Even so, you want to push the measuring stick into year 3, yet Allen doesn't even have a year 3.  I don't make these statistics man, I just read them. 

 

You really want to pretend guys like Tannehill, Bridgewater, Cousins and Keenum are franchise guys?   Do you even want Allen being compared to them? 

 

My hopes for Allen are the likes of a Brees, Brady,  Manning, Rivers, Wilson, Rogers,  Roethlisberger even a Matt Ryan...not the afore mentioned crew. 

 

Im only insisting what Ive seen and what the data actually supports, that's all.   

 

The data is stacked against him.   Sure he could exceed.  Sure he can be our franchise guy, its simply highly unlikely. 

Edited May 22, 2020 by TwistofFate

[BigBillsFan]

41 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

Josh Allen's 2nd year stats in ANY/A are better than the 2nd and 3rd year average of Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill, Case Keenum and Teddy Bridgewater and within a hair of Dak Prescott, Andy Dalton and Cam Newton. 

 

Are you really insisting that Josh can't be as good or better than any of those QB's bc his rookie year's stats skew him lower then them, even if his 2nd year was better than theirs was? Is he really always defined by his rookie year? His second year growth doesn't count? And he can't get better in his third year because his rookie stats have historical precedents? 

 

Then I guess you've got the magic analytic combo, as long as anyone who doubts it's predictive power has to tie one hand behind their back any only follow the rules you set.

 

Really good manipulation to try to make the numbers work. You changed years 1 & 2 to 2 & 3 so Allen would be exempt from a real comparison.

 

It's alright I fixed it for you:
http://pfref.com/tiny/dIDkk

 

Allen's real numbers apples to apples is below Jacoby Brissett and Mike Glennon but above Tannehill.

 

Now to be fair to Allen I don't think holding 2018 against him would be fair. OC was horrible, drop city, and the #1 WR was lazy with no O-line.

[K-9]

3 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

In his 8th year?   Is he a franchise Qb? 

 

Those stats are his first two years in the league!!!  The whole list is everyone's first two years in the league dating back 10 years. 

 

Its an equal comparison. 

 

None of them with a rating as low as Allens are a franchise Qb.   In fact it can be argued that none up to and icluding Dalton are not franchise guys.

 

That's 10 years of data using the exact data that poster felt was criteria essential for being a franchise quarterback.  That data actually proves he's not.

None of the QBs on that list going back 10 years even comes close to the lack of grooming and inexperience at the position that Allen had coming into the league. Not one. From middle school to high school to college to the pros, they were all leap years ahead of Allen in their development at the position. 

Edited May 22, 2020 by K-9

[Bss]

30 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Again, the only one out of the group you mentioned who can legitimately called a franchise guy is Cam.  Even so, you want to push the measuring stick into year 3, yet Allen doesn't even have a year 3.  I don't make these statistics man, I just read them. 

 

You really want to pretend guys like Tannehill, Bridgewater, Cousins and Keenum are franchise guys?   Do you even want Allen being compared to them? 

 

My hopes for Allen are the likes of a Brees, Brady,  Manning, Rivers, Wilson, Rogers,  Roethlisberger even a Matt Ryan...not the afore mentioned crew. 

 

Im only insisting what Ive seen and what the data actually supports, that's all.   

 

The data is stacked against him.   Sure he could exceed.  Sure he can be our franchise guy, its simply highly unlikely. 

Cousins gets way too much *****. He was a top 10 quarterback last year. Kirk Cousins is a franchise quarterback,  if Josh Allen is Kirk Cousins level thats a success. 

[Bss]

9 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

In the last 10 years, no Qb with his ANY/A in their first two years, and at least 300 attempts is a franchise Qb. 

 

This is some real cherrypicking because if you go to the last 11 years,  you'd find a guy whos a top tier NFL quarterback to this day 16 whole spots below Josh.

 

[Motorin']

56 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Again, the only one out of the group you mentioned who can legitimately called a franchise guy is Cam.  Even so, you want to push the measuring stick into year 3, yet Allen doesn't even have a year 3.  I don't make these statistics man, I just read them. 

 

You really want to pretend guys like Tannehill, Bridgewater, Cousins and Keenum are franchise guys?   Do you even want Allen being compared to them? 

 

My hopes for Allen are the likes of a Brees, Brady,  Manning, Rivers, Wilson, Rogers,  Roethlisberger even a Matt Ryan...not the afore mentioned crew. 

 

Im only insisting what Ive seen and what the data actually supports, that's all.   

 

The data is stacked against him.   Sure he could exceed.  Sure he can be our franchise guy, its simply highly unlikely. 

 

Good thing data doesn't play football. And it's also a good thing that a 22 year old QB can learn and grow beyond his rookie year.

 

But just in case, you should write "Josh Allen isn't a franchise quarterback" a thousand times. 

 

 

 

[Motorin']

14 minutes ago, Bss said:

This is some real cherrypicking because if you go to the last 11 years,  you'd find a guy whos a top tier NFL quarterback to this day 16 whole spots below Josh.

 

It also doesn't matter that Josh's first two seasons are on par with Tom Brady and Drew Brees and better than Eli Manning because it doesn't fit the narrative.

 

http://pfref.com/tiny/3epV5

Edited May 22, 2020 by Motorin'

[Bss]

3 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

It also doesn't matter that Josh's first two seasons are on par with Tom Brady and Drew Brees and better than Eli Manning because it doesn't fit the narrative.

 

  http://pfref.com/tiny/x90br

Thats true when you  combine from 2000-2019 hes ahead of Brees, Eli, McNabb, Matt Stafford, and Alex Smith, and just behind Brady. Seems like this whole test doesn't hold up to close inspection. http://pfref.com/tiny/lbTlC

[Motorin']

2 hours ago, Bss said:

Thats true when you  combine from 2000-2019 hes ahead of Brees, Eli, McNabb, Matt Stafford, and Alex Smith, and just behind Brady. Seems like this whole test doesn't hold up to close inspection. http://pfref.com/tiny/lbTlC

 

It took Drew Brees 6 seasons to better Josh's 2nd year TD% of 4.3 : https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BreeDr00.htm

 

Tom Brady won his first Super Bowl with roughly the same ANY/A and a worse TD% than Josh's 2nd year. 

 

I also don't know where this argument, "you can't compare qb's from the 2000's" comes from. We're not talking about the 1970's, or even the 1990's. We're talking about the actual franchise qb's in the league today that people want Josh to play like. 

[TwistofFate]

1 hour ago, Motorin' said:

 

It took Drew Brees 6 seasons to better Josh's 2nd year TD% of 4.3 : https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BreeDr00.htm

 

Tom Brady won his first Super Bowl with roughly the same ANY/A and a worse TD% than Josh's 2nd year. 

 

I also don't know where this argument, "you can't compare qb's from the 2000's" comes from. We're not talking about the 1970's, or even the 1990's. We're talking about the actual franchise qb's in the league today that people want Josh to play like. 

Its comes from......rule changes. 

 

How NFL Rules Changes Created a Golden Era of Quarterback Stats

 

https://www.insidehook.com/article/sports/nfl-rule-changes-created-golden-era-quarterback-stats

[TwistofFate]

3 hours ago, Bss said:

Thats true when you  combine from 2000-2019 hes ahead of Brees, Eli, McNabb, Matt Stafford, and Alex Smith, and just behind Brady. Seems like this whole test doesn't hold up to close inspection. http://pfref.com/tiny/lbTlC

Again, moving the measuring sticks another 10 years back to time when NFL Qbing was completely different. 

 

You guys will attempt to skew thats stats however you want, and by all means go ahead.  10 years is an adequate timeframe, especially since thats the timeframe of the modern NFL passing game.

 

 

[thebandit27]

8 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

See, in this lies the problem.   You don't even understand the data that's being supplied. 

 

The link I provided shows the first two years of every Qb in the league.   Its not comparing a guy with 6 years vs a guy with 2.  Its comparing all of them in their first two years.

 

As ive already stated, not one Qb in the last 10 years has ever produced the ANY/A Allen has in their first two years and become a franchise Qb. 

 

Its another data set that goes against your argument and you don't even understand it. 

 

The majority of the anaylicts I trust are from Sports Info Solutions. 

Actually, what I’m saying is that you’re looking 6+ years down the road to see who has become a franchise QB based upon stats in the first 2 years, which I believe is flawed.

 

And you still haven’t provided any reference for why those 2 statistics you cited supposedly correlate to becoming a franchise QB.

 

Sports Info Solutions is the outfit that provides their data to Pro Football Reference. I find it interesting that you trust their analytics when you’ve talked about how Allen is one of the least accurate QBs in the game and doesn’t throw “catchable passes”. Why is this interesting? Because according to PFR, Allen had an on-target percentage of 73.2, which ranked 21st in the league and was a mere 2.8% behind league MVP Lamar Jackson and 1.5% behind Aaron Rodgers.

As for accuracy from a clean pocket, here’s an article that cites Allen as completing 65% of his passes from a clean pocket:

https://www.theringer.com/platform/amp/nfl/2020/1/3/21048726/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-playoffs-wild-card-texans
 

Maybe you’re not the person who should so flippantly claim that others aren’t understanding the data...

[TwistofFate]

10 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Actually, what I’m saying is that you’re looking 6+ years down the road to see who has become a franchise QB based upon stats in the first 2 years, which I believe is flawed.

 

And you still haven’t provided any reference for why those 2 statistics you cited supposedly correlate to becoming a franchise QB.

 

Sports Info Solutions is the outfit that provides their data to Pro Football Reference. I find it interesting that you trust their analytics when you’ve talked about how Allen is one of the least accurate QBs in the game and doesn’t throw “catchable passes”. Why is this interesting? Because according to PFR, Allen had an on-target percentage of 73.2, which ranked 21st in the league and was a mere 2.8% behind league MVP Lamar Jackson and 1.5% behind Aaron Rodgers.

As for accuracy from a clean pocket, here’s an article that cites Allen as completing 65% of his passes from a clean pocket:

https://www.theringer.com/platform/amp/nfl/2020/1/3/21048726/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-playoffs-wild-card-texans
 

Maybe you’re not the person who should so flippantly claim that others aren’t understanding the data...

Again, maybe you should understand what your talking about.   

 

Attached is a graphic to give you an idea of just how good you think Allens 65% completions are from a clean pocket.  Maybe a visual representation will help you out. 

 

SiS (sports info solutions) is a stand alone company and all their analytics are used in part by others, but pro football reference doesn't pull every single metric from SiS. 

 

As far as providing a reference to the two most important metrics concerning franchise Qbs, I've posted them numerous times over the last several months and don't care to do it again.  Do yourself a favor and research it for yourself. 

[thebandit27]

3 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Again, maybe you should understand what your talking about.   

 

Attached is a graphic to give you an idea of just how good you think Allens 65% completions are from a clean pocket.  Maybe a visual representation will help you out. 

 

SiS (sports info solutions) is a stand alone company and all their analytics are used in part by others, but pro football reference doesn't pull every single metric from SiS. 

 

As far as providing a reference to the two most important metrics concerning franchise Qbs, I've posted them numerous times over the last several months and don't care to do it again.  Do yourself a favor and research it for yourself. 

That’s passing “grade” not accuracy.

 

And if you can be bothered to post an infographic out of snarkiness, you can post a link that you apparently can find quite easily since you’ve posted it so often over the last few months. You made the statement, I’m simply asking you to back it up.