Josh's passing stats for 2019 aren't as bad as many people think.

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Care to reference where you picked up that those two statistics were the most critical? Because I’ve seen studies that ANY/A and TD% were the two statistics most closely correlated with winning.

 

https://www.footballperspective.com/correlating-passing-stats-with-wins/

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/20114211/the-nfl-stats-matter-most-2017-offseason-bill-barnwell

Hopefully Josh continues to improve, because his TD% is mediocre and his ANY/A is dreadful.

[thebandit27]

15 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Hopefully Josh continues to improve, because his TD% is mediocre and his ANY/A is dreadful.

Well nobody said he doesn’t need to improve, but that’s quite a jump to say that he’s “mediocre” in TD% (since he was 18th in 2019) but “dreadful” in ANYA (where he was 23rd).

[FireChans]

21 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Well nobody said he doesn’t need to improve, but that’s quite a jump to say that he’s “mediocre” in TD% (since he was 18th in 2019) but “dreadful” in ANYA (where he was 23rd).

Mediocre yes, he was below average. As for ANYA, yes he was 23rd which was worse than Case Keenum and basically everyone else below him in that stat is either a rookie, his contemporaries in his class or horror shows at QB.

[GoBills808]

52 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Care to reference where you picked up that those two statistics were the most critical? Because I’ve seen studies that ANY/A and TD% were the two statistics most closely correlated with winning.

 

https://www.footballperspective.com/correlating-passing-stats-with-wins/

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/20114211/the-nfl-stats-matter-most-2017-offseason-bill-barnwell

ANY/A is my go-to QB stat

 

props for linking footballperspective

[TwistofFate]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

Care to reference where you picked up that those two statistics were the most critical? Because I’ve seen studies that ANY/A and TD% were the two statistics most closely correlated with winning.

 

https://www.footballperspective.com/correlating-passing-stats-with-wins/

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/20114211/the-nfl-stats-matter-most-2017-offseason-bill-barnwell

You are talking about something completely different.

 

I'm talking about statistics using in-depth metrics in terms of having a franchise quarterback.

 

And if you want to bring ANY/A into the picture, it gets even more concerning for Allen. 

 

In the last 10 years, no Qb with his ANY/A in their first two years, and at least 300 attempts is a franchise Qb. 

 

So you're only further proving the point. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny.fcgi?id=zRZOG

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

You are talking about something completely different.

 

I'm talking about statistics using in-depth metrics in terms of having a franchise quarterback.

 

And if you want to bring ANY/A into the picture, it gets even more concerning for Allen. 

 

In the last 10 years, no Qb with his ANY/A in their first two years, and at least 300 attempts is a franchise Qb. 

 

So you're only further proving the point. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny.fcgi?id=zRZOG

You don't have a point. You are flailing

[thebandit27]

5 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

You are talking about something completely different.

 

I'm talking about statistics using in-depth metrics in terms of having a franchise quarterback.

 

And if you want to bring ANY/A into the picture, it gets even more concerning for Allen. 

 

In the last 10 years, no Qb with his ANY/A in their first two years, and at least 300 attempts is a franchise Qb. 

 

So you're only further proving the point. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny.fcgi?id=zRZOG

I’m asking you to cite the reference for your statement that those two statistics are the ones that define a franchise QB.

 

And I think you’re going off a flawed data set if the idea is to compare Allen after two seasons to QBs that have had 6+ seasons in the NFL.

 

If you limited the analysis to QBs after their first 450 attempts (or something) and compared them, you’d have a more comparable data set.

 

And no, it doesn’t “prove” anything.

[ngbills]

ANY/A

EJ Manuel 5.07

Josh Allen 5.16

 

TD%

EJ Manuel 3.7

Josh Allen 3.8

 

[gobills404]

21 minutes ago, ngbills said:

ANY/A

EJ Manuel 5.07

Josh Allen 5.16

 

TD%

EJ Manuel 3.7

Josh Allen 3.8

 

Allen Year 2:

5.71 ANY/A

4.3 TD%

 

Manuel Years 2-4:

5.12 ANY/A

3.3 TD%

Edited May 21, 2020 by gobills404

[thebandit27]

6 minutes ago, gobills404 said:

Allen Year 2:

5.71 ANY/A

4.3 TD%

 

Manuel Years 2-4:

5.13 ANY/A

3.3 TD%

Peyton Manning years 1-2:

5.9 ANY/A

4.7 TD%
 

Tom Brady years 2-3 (since he didn’t play in year 1):

5.47 ANY/A
4.55 TD%
 

Drew Brees years 2-3 (since he didn’t play in year 1):

3.43 ANY/A
3.15 TD%

 

Obviously QBs never improve after year 2 of starting, that’s why those 3 will never make it in the NFL.

Edited May 21, 2020 by thebandit27

[Billl]

7 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Peyton Manning years 1-2:

5.9 ANY/A

4.7 TD%
 

Tom Brady years 2-3 (since he didn’t play in year 1):

5.47 ANY/A
4.55 TD%
 

Drew Brees years 2-3 (since he didn’t play in year 1):

3.43 ANY/A
3.15 TD%

 

Obviously QBs never improve after year 2 of starting, that’s why those 3 will never make it in the NFL.

So we’re back to comparing the NFL from 20 years ago to the NFL today and pretending it’s meaningful?  The Colts were 11th in TD% Manning’s rookie season and 4th his second season.

Edited May 21, 2020 by Billl

[gobills404]

5 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Peyton Manning years 1-2:

5.9 ANY/A

4.7 TD%
 

Tom Brady years 2-3 (since he didn’t play in year 1):

5.47 ANY/A
4.55 TD%
 

Drew Brees years 2-3 (since he didn’t play in year 1):

3.43 ANY/A
3.15 TD%

 

Obviously QBs never improve after year 2 of starting, that’s why those 3 will never make it in the NFL.

Mahomes and Jackson winning MVP back to back as sophomore QBs (even though they're only the 2nd and 3rd to ever do it) has made people impatient. Now people think that if a QB isn't elite in their 2nd year, they're already a disappointment.

[GoBills808]

11 minutes ago, Billl said:

So we’re back to comparing the NFL from 20 years ago to the NFL today and pretending it’s meaningful?

Are you done pretending you watched that Ravens game lol

[ngbills]

1 hour ago, gobills404 said:

Allen Year 2:

5.71 ANY/A

4.3 TD%

 

Manuel Years 2-4:

5.12 ANY/A

3.3 TD%

Manuel Year 2 

5.54 ANY/A

3.8 TD%

[ngbills]

Super Bowl QB #2 and #10 in ANY/A

Conf Champ Losers #1 and #11

Div Round Losers #4, #7, #8 and #12

 

All 8 of the final teams playing in the playoffs were in the top #12 in ANY/A. ALL OF THEM. Looks like a good correlation to winning. Only 4 exceptions and one lost in the wild card game and other 3 were Dak in Dallas, Stafford in Det, and Carr in OAK.

 

Wild Card Losers 3, 16, 17 and 23.

 

Allen and the Bills were the lowest ANY/A QB to make the playoffs. Only 3 teams outside of the top 12 made it. 

 

Call it a franchise QB or simply what you need from your QB to win. 

[HappyDays]

14 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Manuel Year 2 

5.54 ANY/A

3.8 TD%

 

I mean really, do you remember actually watching EJ Manuel play? Does your eye test really think this is a good comparison? Manuel was awful. He never showed any potential.

 

But sure, I'll play along. First of all you're using a 4 game sample against a 15 game sample. That doesn't work. Secondly even if that's your argument, Manuel's numbers are still demonstrably worse. Allen had better passer rating, YPA, TD%, and INT%. Thirdly Manuel was throwing to Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods. Allen was throwing to John Brown and some combination of Zay Jones, Duke Williams, and other assorted bench warmers. Which, again, he still had better numbers with.

[ngbills]

21 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I mean really, do you remember actually watching EJ Manuel play? Does your eye test really think this is a good comparison? Manuel was awful. He never showed any potential.

 

But sure, I'll play along. First of all you're using a 4 game sample against a 15 game sample. That doesn't work. Secondly even if that's your argument, Manuel's numbers are still demonstrably worse. Allen had better passer rating, YPA, TD%, and INT%. Thirdly Manuel was throwing to Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods. Allen was throwing to John Brown and some combination of Zay Jones, Duke Williams, and other assorted bench warmers. Which, again, he still had better numbers with.

That is the point with the "eye test". It adjusts to whether they are currently a Bill or no longer a Bill. On the old message board I got into a ton of debates with folks because I said EJ sucks. Of course, now people will not admit or simply forgot about saying the same things. EJ has not had enough time, his coaches suck, his support system, excuses #1-100. 

 

I think Allen is a much better prospect. But he is a work in progress still. He is as bad as his stats show. His play will limit the Bills if he cannot improve. 

[thebandit27]

2 hours ago, Billl said:

So we’re back to comparing the NFL from 20 years ago to the NFL today and pretending it’s meaningful?  The Colts were 11th in TD% Manning’s rookie season and 4th his second season.

Oh, so percentages no longer reflect the number of times that a TD is thrown per pass attempt? Have you looked at their respective career arcs in these particular stats? I

[BigBillsFan]

21 hours ago, gobills404 said:

Here are breakdowns of all his throws from 2 of those 3 games (couldn't find anything for the pats game). If you actually took the time to rewatch Allen's games instead of just parroting stats you saw online without context, you would see that his actual play on the field far exceeds what's reflected on the stat sheet.

 

Also literally nobody has ever said that Allen is currently a great quarterback. Even the most die-hard Bill's homers know he's still a work in progress.

 

 

Actually I re-watched the Ravens game and he was flat out horrible. This is not "all his throws" it's his throws on long 3rd downs. The whole first half he was over-throwing receivers and way off base. It wasn't even close to a good performance.

[Motorin']

4 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

You are talking about something completely different.

 

I'm talking about statistics using in-depth metrics in terms of having a franchise quarterback.

 

And if you want to bring ANY/A into the picture, it gets even more concerning for Allen. 

 

In the last 10 years, no Qb with his ANY/A in their first two years, and at least 300 attempts is a franchise Qb. 

 

So you're only further proving the point. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny.fcgi?id=zRZOG

So you don't care that Allen's ANY/A improved 30% from year 1 to year 2. No chance of similar improvement?

 

A similar improvement from his year 2 performance would put him in the top 5 of the list you provided...

Edited May 21, 2020 by Motorin'