Josh's passing stats for 2019 aren't as bad as many people think.

[FireChans]

40 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

He put together a TD drive to get them back in striking distance and was putting together another deep drive when he got hurt.

 

My point here is quite simple: there’s no reason to believe that he didn’t have a legitimate chance to win that game had he not been injured.

In between his TD drive and the drive he got hurt, he went 3 and out and threw an interception. 

 

Did we watch the same game? This wasn’t the team starting to build momentum.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

They had a PFF guest on WGR 550 this afternoon with Schopp and Bulldog.

 

As a rookie 26.7% of Allen’s passes were inaccurate/uncatchable.

 

That number was 26.0% last year. Highest in the league.

 

And of all his plays, 20% were graded negatively, down with Mitchell Trubisky.

 

So whether you completely dismiss the analysis of PFF or just go off the conventional statistics, it’s clear Allen is a bottom 1/3rd NFL QB right now. 
 

Edited May 20, 2020 by Straight Hucklebuck

[GoBills808]

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

Sure there was a better chance than with Barkley. But Allen and Co. had one of the least red zone trips in the NFL. So  you may feel like he was “leading a deep drive” (they gained 25 yards after a 30 yard return). But the reality is, they were in the area of the field they struggled the most to get past. The Bills has one of the fewest red zone trips in the entire league and were just below average in TD% even when they did get there. 

Allens secret sauce in the red zone has been rushing inside the 3 yard line (5 of 9 RTD) He completed 48% of his passes in the RZ. Again, the real uphill battle for the offense is just getting their, not just finishing the drive. 

The simple point that folks are apparently really upset with is that he didn’t get the opportunity to win that game in the 4th quarter, hence my statement about his record.

 

And the whole discussion just goes to prove my point that when someone tries to put a statistic that doesn’t seem positive for Allen into context it’s an excuse, but point out a statistic that reflects positively on him and there’s an uproar over it.

 

1 hour ago, Billl said:

I literally said “without the cheap shot”.  That was the foul on NE.  Without the cheap shot, there wouldn’t have been offsetting fouls on the play.  Without the offsetting fouls, it would have been third and 17 or 18 from near midfield.  You don’t need to proof my posts.  They’re correct.

 

Um, you’ve been wrong plenty of times, and I can just as easily say that without the holding penalty they’re inside the 30.
 

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

In between his TD drive and the drive he got hurt, he went 3 and out and threw an interception. 

 

Did we watch the same game? This wasn’t the team starting to build momentum.

We watched the same game. The point here is really simple: they had a chance to win the game with a single score in the 4th quarter. Allen didn’t get the chance, which is why I made the statement about him being 10-4 in games he started and finished—which is true. I honestly don’t understand why there are a select few folks that are indignant over it.

[TroutDog]

4 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

Completing mid 40% completion against top 10 defenses in year two is no evidence of being great. 

 

He averaged 48% completion in his final 3 game stretch.  He averaged 34 passes.  Not sure how one can equate that with being great. 

 

The only success he had was against teams with losing records. In fact, he completed above 60% against 1 team with a winning record....the Titans. 

 

The defense nulified those teams with losing records to the point Allen and the offense really didn't need to do much to win. 

 

Games we needed the offense to actually score points to win, they were non existent.  Those games were against teams with winning records that were well rounded. 

 

Allen is going to actually have to win games with his arm this year.  No way the defense does what they did last year with 2020 schedule.   We will have to score to win. 

I guess you’re discarding everything else I said...which is fine if that’s where you want to start from. 
 

Josh was very good against, what we shall call, ‘standard defenses’. Against the better defensive minds, he was well below average. Should he be able to learn to read the more complex defenses, then he should take a massive leap forward this year. I, for one, believe he can. 
 

The only success he has was against teams with losing records? I believe you should look again. Of course none of this takes into account the simple eye test recognizing where he came from and the massive leaps since he came here. 
 

If you have a burning need to say he sucks, then so be it. Let’s just agree to disagree. 

[Mango]

17 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

The simple point that folks are apparently really upset with is that he didn’t get the opportunity to win that game in the 4th quarter, hence my statement about his record.

 

And the whole discussion just goes to prove my point that when someone tries to put a statistic that doesn’t seem positive for Allen into context it’s an excuse, but point out a statistic that reflects positively on him and there’s an uproar over it.

 

 

Um, you’ve been wrong plenty of times, and I can just as easily say that without the holding penalty they’re inside the 30.
 

We watched the same game. The point here is really simple: they had a chance to win the game with a single score in the 4th quarter. Allen didn’t get the chance, which is why I made the statement about him being 10-4 in games he started and finished—which is true. I honestly don’t understand why there are a select few folks that are indignant over it.

I was just responding to your post that he: 

 

-Was driving deep- They weren’t. They went 20 yards. 

- Thrives in the red zone- he doesn’t as a passer/ He’s actually a poor passer in the red zone. Completing less than 50% of their passes. And over half his rushing TD’s are from the 3 or closer. 
 

I added his rushing TD’s. Which I credited as his secret sauce. But mentioned that over half came at the 3 yard line or closer. I want him to keep running but only enough to keep defenses honest. 

 

I also added that the Bills had one of the worst total number of red zone attempts in the league and a below average TD% even when they do get there. I’ll add now, that the Bills are 24th in yards per drive. All while being 11th in average starting field position. The drive you mentioned was actually actually VERY close to their average in terms of yardage and starting failed position. 
 

I feel like I read your point as “he probably does it” and I responded with, based on everything you laid out, probability is actually not in his favor outside of in game context. Not only that, it was very run of the mill for a Buffalo offense. Started at the 30, went under 30 yards. Punt. In game context he had just thrown a pick and went 3 and out. So not a ton of momentum. 

[FireChans]

34 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

We watched the same game. The point here is really simple: they had a chance to win the game with a single score in the 4th quarter. Allen didn’t get the chance, which is why I made the statement about him being 10-4 in games he started and finished—which is true. I honestly don’t understand why there are a select few folks that are indignant over it.

They had a chance to win the game, and they didn’t. They were down a single score in large part due to Allen’s horrific play for 3Q’s.

 

The reason folks are indignant is because it’s a weird twist of facts to make Allen sound better which is WHOLLY unnecessary. You can argue Allen’s deficiencies and successes without being ridiculous. You are perhaps the only person to waive a loss from a QB’s record after he tossed 3 picks and sucked for 3Q’s because he got hurt. He didn’t even leave the field with a lead!

 

Brady got pulled in the 4th against KC in 2014 and Jimmy G finished out the game for him. It is a FACT that he was 12-3 in games he started and finished in 2014. That’s still a really stupid point to make.

Edited May 21, 2020 by FireChans

[Mango]

16 minutes ago, FireChans said:

They had a chance to win the game, and they didn’t. They were down a single score in large part due to Allen’s horrific play for 3Q’s.

 

The reason folks are indignant is because it’s a weird twist of facts to make Allen sound better which is WHOLLY unnecessary. You can argue Allen’s deficiencies and successes without being ridiculous. You are perhaps the only person to waive a loss from a QB’s record after he tossed 3 picks and sucked for 3Q’s because he got hurt. He didn’t even leave the field with a lead!

 

Brady got pulled in the 4th against KC in 2014 and Jimmy G finished out the game for him. It is a FACT that he was 12-3 in games he started and finished in 2014. That’s still a really stupid point to make.

EJ left the field against the pats with just a few minutes left on the clock with the league. I think part of my frustration with the “Allen is almost there” crowd is a little bit of shaken baby syndrome with my past self with EJ. 
 

Sure he largely didn’t play well enough, but he left the field with the lead. What a terrible 100 seconds against the Jags in London, but we still almost won the game. He was 2-2 when he was benched. Yada yada yada.

 

EJ reference aside. JA has shown more improvement from year 1 to 2 than EJ did. And has much better intangibles. The book isn’t written on him yet, but as a passer he hasn’t been good enough to date. He still may. Stats are on his side at the moment, but I am holding out hope.

 

Go Bills! 

[FireChans]

Just now, Mango said:

EJ left the field against the pats with just a few minutes left on the clock with the league. I think part of my frustration with the “Allen is almost there” crowd is a little bit of shaken baby syndrome with my past self with EJ. 
 

Sure he largely didn’t play well enough, but he left the field with the lead. What a terrible 100 seconds against the Jags in London, but we still almost won the game. He was 2-2 when he was benched. Yada yada yada.

 

EJ reference aside. JA has shown more improvement from year 1 to 2 than EJ did. And has much better intangibles. The book isn’t written on him yet, but as a passer he hasn’t been good enough to date. He still may. Stats are on his side at the moment, but I am holding out hope.

 

Go Bills! 

Exactly! That’s why it’s silly. You needed the contortion act to tell yourself EJ was better than he is. Allen’s career trajectory is already far better than EJ’s. You don’t need to contort yourself with these obscure stats and facts to have reasons to believe in him. Or to have doubt in him. We don’t have to come up with these inane and insane benchmarks that literally no other QB is held to in the league.

 

How many weird contextual stats about Dak or Trubisky or Darnold or Baker are thrown around on here outside of the normal ones? ZERO. No one is sitting here talking about how Baker left the field with a lead or Darnold’s record in games he started and finished. It’s just dopey stuff.

 

 

[gobills404]

5 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

Completing mid 40% completion against top 10 defenses in year two is no evidence of being great. 

 

He averaged 48% completion in his final 3 game stretch.  He averaged 34 passes.  Not sure how one can equate that with being great. 

Here are breakdowns of all his throws from 2 of those 3 games (couldn't find anything for the pats game). If you actually took the time to rewatch Allen's games instead of just parroting stats you saw online without context, you would see that his actual play on the field far exceeds what's reflected on the stat sheet.

 

Also literally nobody has ever said that Allen is currently a great quarterback. Even the most die-hard Bill's homers know he's still a work in progress.

 

[papazoid]

NFL quarterback tiers 2020: Franchise guys, rising stars and stopgaps; here's where your team's starter ranks

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-quarterback-tiers-2020-franchise-guys-rising-stars-and-stopgaps-heres-where-your-teams-starter-ranks/

 

(they have 14 guys ahead of josh)

[papazoid]

8 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

They had a PFF guest on WGR 550 this afternoon with Schopp and Bulldog.

 

As a rookie 26.7% of Allen’s passes were inaccurate/uncatchable.

 

That number was 26.0% last year. Highest in the league.

 

And of all his plays, 20% were graded negatively, down with Mitchell Trubisky.

 

So whether you completely dismiss the analysis of PFF or just go off the conventional statistics, it’s clear Allen is a bottom 1/3rd NFL QB right now. 
 

 

 

ouch.....but you can't take his biggest weakness and act like that's the only way to grade QB play.

[JaCrispy]

9 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

[thebandit27]

10 hours ago, Mango said:

I was just responding to your post that he: 

 

-Was driving deep- They weren’t. They went 20 yards. 

- Thrives in the red zone- he doesn’t as a passer/ He’s actually a poor passer in the red zone. Completing less than 50% of their passes. And over half his rushing TD’s are from the 3 or closer. 
 

I added his rushing TD’s. Which I credited as his secret sauce. But mentioned that over half came at the 3 yard line or closer. I want him to keep running but only enough to keep defenses honest. 

 

I also added that the Bills had one of the worst total number of red zone attempts in the league and a below average TD% even when they do get there. I’ll add now, that the Bills are 24th in yards per drive. All while being 11th in average starting field position. The drive you mentioned was actually actually VERY close to their average in terms of yardage and starting failed position. 
 

I feel like I read your point as “he probably does it” and I responded with, based on everything you laid out, probability is actually not in his favor outside of in game context. Not only that, it was very run of the mill for a Buffalo offense. Started at the 30, went under 30 yards. Punt. In game context he had just thrown a pick and went 3 and out. So not a ton of momentum. 

I’m stating it more as “he had a legitimate chance”. And he did. It was a one-score game and that same drive ended with a 4-and-out from inside the 5.

 

It’s fine if people don’t agree, but to frame it as some kind of preposterous notion (which you may not be doing) is unreasonable IMO.

10 hours ago, FireChans said:

They had a chance to win the game, and they didn’t. They were down a single score in large part due to Allen’s horrific play for 3Q’s.

 

The reason folks are indignant is because it’s a weird twist of facts to make Allen sound better which is WHOLLY unnecessary. You can argue Allen’s deficiencies and successes without being ridiculous. You are perhaps the only person to waive a loss from a QB’s record after he tossed 3 picks and sucked for 3Q’s because he got hurt. He didn’t even leave the field with a lead!

 

Brady got pulled in the 4th against KC in 2014 and Jimmy G finished out the game for him. It is a FACT that he was 12-3 in games he started and finished in 2014. That’s still a really stupid point to make.

I’m sorry but I don’t think it’s ridiculous to point out that he missed the final quarter of a one-score game that ended in the same score and involved a 4-and-out inside the 5 on the drive he was injured.

 

As I said to Mango above; you may feel that 16-10 Pats****** was etched in stone at that point; I think it’s altogether reasonable to believe 17-16 Bills was a possibility if Allen didn’t get hurt.

 

It’s not intended to prop him up artificially; it’s simply an acknowledgment that a guy that lead a bunch of 4th quarter comebacks didn’t get the chance to do it in that game.

 

I’ll leave it at that.

[BigBillsFan]

23 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

Who threw for more TDs per pass attempt: Allen or Tom Brady?

Who threw more INTs: Allen or Tom Brady?
 

Who threw for a higher on-target percentage: Allen or Tom Brady?

 

Who had a higher yards per pass attempt: Allen or Tom Brady?

 

Actually you're proving my point inadvertently. The Patriots were 12-4 and Brady played horribly the 2nd half, and really most of the season.Those wins were not from Brady "winning" but the team winning DESPITE Tommy Boy.

 

If the bar is "How does Josh rank in a few categories against a QB in a his worst year at 42 yrs old for context" then YES YOU WIN THE PRIZE.

 

If the question is "How is Josh in the bottom 1/3rd of the most statistically significant categories 2 years in a row and why does that need context" then YOU LOSE.

[thebandit27]

17 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

Actually you're proving my point inadvertently. The Patriots were 12-4 and Brady played horribly the 2nd half, and really most of the season.Those wins were not from Brady "winning" but the team winning DESPITE Tommy Boy.

 

If the bar is "How does Josh rank in a few categories against a QB in a his worst year at 42 yrs old for context" then YES YOU WIN THE PRIZE.

 

If the question is "How is Josh in the bottom 1/3rd of the most statistically significant categories 2 years in a row and why does that need context" then YOU LOSE.

Nope, you missed it.

 

Actually look at the numbers and draw a real conclusion. Brady had a season that was nearly statistically identical to 2013–when he was in his prime. But even that isn’t the point.

 

The point was that when looking at the questions I asked you didn’t worry about the facts; you immediately tried to apply context to the situation. It’s almost as if you believe that the raw data don’t really tell the whole story.

 

And that was the crux of my very first response to you.

Edited May 21, 2020 by thebandit27

[Straight Hucklebuck]

2 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

Actually you're proving my point inadvertently. The Patriots were 12-4 and Brady played horribly the 2nd half, and really most of the season.Those wins were not from Brady "winning" but the team winning DESPITE Tommy Boy.

 

If the bar is "How does Josh rank in a few categories against a QB in a his worst year at 42 yrs old for context" then YES YOU WIN THE PRIZE.

 

If the question is "How is Josh in the bottom 1/3rd of the most statistically significant categories 2 years in a row and why does that need context" then YOU LOSE.

 

Whatever mental hoops you want to jump through to elevate Allen, you go right ahead. 

 

[HappyDays]

12 hours ago, gobills404 said:

Here are breakdowns of all his throws from 2 of those 3 games (couldn't find anything for the pats game). If you actually took the time to rewatch Allen's games instead of just parroting stats you saw online without context, you would see that his actual play on the field far exceeds what's reflected on the stat sheet.

 

Also literally nobody has ever said that Allen is currently a great quarterback. Even the most die-hard Bill's homers know he's still a work in progress.

 

 

Thank you for posting the thread with all of the Steelers throws. My memory of the game is correct. Allen played extremely well and was let down by his supporting cast far more than they were let down by him. I counted exactly two bad/inaccurate passes in that thread. I also counted 4 drops. As much as some posters think Bills fans make excuses for Allen, I have never seen so many excuses made for a group of receivers. If the ball doesn't hit them softly in the hands at the exact center of their chest, they're off the hook.

 

It doesn't come up a lot on here but Beasley was a disappointment last year IMO. He came in as the receiver who "catches everything." Instead he is a small receiver who plays small. He has excellent short area quickness, but if the ball is a little outside his catch radius or there is a DB in his vicinity he is not likely to catch the ball.

[TwistofFate]

7 hours ago, papazoid said:

 

 

ouch.....but you can't take his biggest weakness and act like that's the only way to grade QB play.

Actually, you can. 

 

According to advanced metrics the two most prominent metrics in determining a franchise Qb are clean pocket statistics and catchable pass percentage. 

 

Over the last 10 years, zero Qbs with the metrics Allen has over 2 seasons in those categories, has gone on to be a franchise Qb. 

 

If you think about the logic they use, its pretty simple.   The majority of your throws in the NFL are going to come from a clean pocket. (metrics put it in the low 60%) If you can't be accurate during that percentage, the odds are completely stacked against you.  "Accurate" refers to the second most valuable metric, catchable passes. 

 

Everything Ive read about advanced metrics concerning Qbs boils down to those two key categories. 

 

How accurate are your passes (giving receivers YAC with ball placement) and how consistently are you doing it?  (clean pocket passing) 

 

All the other stuff will round out your game, but those categories are the most important in determining a franchise Qb. 

[thebandit27]

2 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

Actually, you can. 

 

According to advanced metrics the two most prominent metrics in determining a franchise Qb are clean pocket statistics and catchable pass percentage. 

 

Over the last 10 years, zero Qbs with the metrics Allen has over 2 seasons in those categories, has gone on to be a franchise Qb. 

 

If you think about the logic they use, its pretty simple.   The majority of your throws in the NFL are going to come from a clean pocket. (metrics put it in the low 60%) If you can't be accurate during that percentage, the odds are completely stacked against you.  "Accurate" refers to the second most valuable metric, catchable passes. 

 

Everything Ive read about advanced metrics concerning Qbs boils down to those two key categories. 

 

How accurate are your passes (giving receivers YAC with ball placement) and how consistently are you doing it?  (clean pocket passing) 

 

All the other stuff will round out your game, but those categories are the most important in determining a franchise Qb. 

Care to reference where you picked up that those two statistics were the most critical? Because I’ve seen studies that ANY/A and TD% were the two statistics most closely correlated with winning.

 

https://www.footballperspective.com/correlating-passing-stats-with-wins/

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/20114211/the-nfl-stats-matter-most-2017-offseason-bill-barnwell