Balanced article on Josh - key takeaway .. he was and is a project

[JESSEFEFFER]

7 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

Excluding the stats from the last game of the year, when he only played 2 series, Josh averaged 205.6 yards and 1.33 TDs per game. Let's just say he plays that last game and hits those averages he would've finished with 3,289.60 yards & 21.33 TDs. I would say moderate improvement would be about 3,650 yards 25 TDs. To hit that he would have to throw for an additional 22 yards a game and find an extra TD pass every 4.5 - 5.0 games.

 

For a few references Watson threw for 3,852 yards and 26 TDs, Cousins 3,603 yards 26 TDs this past year.

 

IMO the one stat line that never get's the attention it deserves is his play in the 4th quarter in games where the score is +/- 7 points. Last year he was 36 for 63  522 yards   8.3 Avg   5 TDs   0 INTS    110.7 QB Rating. 

 

No RZ interceptions either.  I think that's because when he can run it in from 20 yards and under, he doesn't feel the need to force the ball to get the TD.  He is a good/great short yardage runner and he is good/great against nickel defenses with their backs turned.  Those TD runs could be more TD throws but at the risk of likely more ints.

[Penfield45]

19 hours ago, Hardhatharry said:

None of that really matters as much as you think which is why they keep taking practices away. Don't forget every other team is in the same boat so it is even field still. Don't use any excuses for Allen.

 

which is why a team like Miami could very well win the division this season

 

if Fitz goes out and plays good enough to win 8-9 games it might be enough. not to mention the totally unknown Tua.  

[TwistofFate]

 Allen needs a big jump.   The article is on point.  This team is a Qb away from real championship aspirations. 

 

If he doesn't take the jump, he will be competing in 2021 for a starting job. 

 

There really isn't any excuse this year.  It's do or die time. 

[loyal2dagame]

3 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

 Allen needs a big jump.   The article is on point.  This team is a Qb away from real championship aspirations. 

 

If he doesn't take the jump, he will be competing in 2021 for a starting job. 

 

There really isn't any excuse this year.  It's do or die time. 

Is the team really a QB away from championship aspirations? 

 

Or is the QB 10-15 dropped passes being caught away from being great and championship caliber? 

 

Chicken or egg arguement.  

 

[Dopey]

14 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

How do you go from a poop emoji to this well-measured response? I mean, I still think the phrase is ignorant (because you never know until you know - its like trying to predict the future), but at least I do not feel like I'm talking to a loon.  

I'm blaming it on being at home with my 2 dogs for so long. Just kidding. Love them.

The "reasons" vs "excuses" debate is always tough. Take care.

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

2 hours ago, loyal2dagame said:

Is the team really a QB away from championship aspirations? 

 

Or is the QB 10-15 dropped passes being caught away from being great and championship caliber? 

 

Chicken or egg arguement.  

 

It's Allen, not dropped passes.

 

Last year the Bills would have met the same fate as Houston. 

 

This year, if Allen plays like last year, the team will be held back. 

 

They are playing a more difficult schedule, and can not bank on the defense holding teams to 16.2 ppg, while the offense scores 19.6 ppg. 

 

 

Edited May 14, 2020 by Straight Hucklebuck

[JoeF]

The QB for the Bills I saw in the Dallas game last year reads defenses at a high level; is accurate; is a red zone threat with both his legs and his arm and is pretty damn evolved.  I hope that QB shows up more and more.

[MiltonWaddams]

21 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Well since you bashed Bill yesterday for speaking in hyperbole. 

 

I guess I can throw it right back at you. 

 

It's not like that is the firm line that will be accepted. It's more like what season would put the questions away. 

 

3,300 yards and 22 TDs is borderline (that's Gardner Minshew as a rookie). He probably needs something like 3,600 yards and 25 TDs. Something that gets you out of 193 ypg and 1.5 TDs game. 

 

Allen was 23rd in yards (30th in ypg), 32nd in completion percentage, 24th in rating and tied for 21st in TDs. He has to get out of the bottom third because we all know you can't count on elite defense carrying over year and year. What the 2012-2015 Seahawks did was the exception to the rule. 

Not that you’re wrong, because you’re not, but those Hawks teams had Russell. If JA is 3/4 of the QB that Russell was in 2015, we have a really strong chance of more than 1 playoff victory. The Bills offensive talent is markedly better than the Hawks was. 

[HappyDays]

20 hours ago, Billl said:

EJ Manuel’s rookie season was easily superior to Allen’s rookie season pretty much across the board.  He got benched after 4 games in his second season with a stat line of 7 TDs,(2 rushing) 3 INTs, 838 passing yards, 1 fumble, and 79 total points scored.

 

After 4 games of Josh’s second season, Josh had 6 TDs (3 rushing) 6 INTs, 903 passing yards, 5 fumbles, and 76 total points scored.

 

The difference is Buffalo’s defense gave up 24.25 PPG when Manuel was the starter and 16 PPG last season.  Buffalo scored more than 24 points 4 times last season.  The Bills scored more than 16 points 13 times in 2013.

 

Their productivity is essentially indistinguishable from one another’s.  EJ got yanked after 4 games his second year.  Josh didn’t.

 

Lol! I watched EJ play. There is no comparison at all. This is the worst kind of analysis. Allen's game against the Pats (#4 of that 4 game stretch you pulled) was disgusting. It was as bad a game as I've ever seen from a Bills QB. It was also a total outlier in his second season.

[Jauronimo]

On 5/13/2020 at 5:52 AM, Hardhatharry said:

Lol widely considered... Come on man stop making stuff up.

I've heard that multiple times in interviews from current and former Olineman.  They have said the cut down per the CBA for how long coaches have with players means there is only enough time to install the playbook.  Teaching, technique, and team play becomes the onus of the players to train together or seek outside help in the offseason. 

 

He isn't making anything up.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

 

GP	CMP	ATT	CMP%	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	LNG	SACK	FUM	RTG
12	169	320	52.8	2,074	6.5	10	12	75	28	3	67.9
16	271	461	58.8	3,089	6.7	20	9	53	38	6	85.3
28	440	781	56.3	5,163	6.6	30	21	75	66	9	78.2

                              

Above are his stats from 2018 & 2019. I think it shows just how bad it was in 2018 and a pretty sizable jump in year 2.

 

In 2018 he averaged 172.8 yards a game, if you exclude the last against Jets from this past year when he only played 2 series, he averaged 205.6 yards this year. If he can improve at about the same rate he would average 244.6 yards a game or 3,914.6 yards for the season. If his completion percentage increases at the same rate he will be completing ~63% - 64%, yards per pass would be ~7.0, based off of TDs per game played his TDs would be ~28 - 29. He went from averaging .83 TDs in 2018 to averaging 1.33 this past season. His QB Rating would jump up over 100.0.

 

Most people know he needs to improve some more, he did last offseason and then again there was marked improvement after the Pats*** game in week 4 last year(17 TDs  3 INTs the rest of the year). There's absolutely no reason to believe he will not show marked improvement when he arrives for training camp this year and there's a good chance he'll show more improvement as the season goes on this year, like he did last season. He was a lot better QB at the end of the year vs the beginning of the year even though the schedule got a lot tougher and included a 5 game stretch where they played a top 11 passing defense which included the Broncos, Cowboys, Ravens, Steelers & Pats***. That stretch included his first 3 prime time games(Cowboys, Steelers & Pats***), all on the road, where we won 2 out of the 3 and were knocking on the door to tie it up at the end of the only game we lost.  

 

That's not even mentioning that the offense had 9 new starters last year, Josh was the only skill position player back and the O-Line had 4 new starters. With more weapons, the younger guys being a year older & the line having a year under their belt together the jump needed this year, I don't believe, is nearly as big as some people are making it out to be. Fix the long ball and show good improvement against the blitz and he'll be just fine. GO BILLS!!!

[Nihilarian]

What most fans and even some coaches don't get is that there is a world of difference between attending a big time college program like USC, UCLA, Alabama, LSU, etc. 

 

Over a junior college and then a college like U of Wyoming where the last great QB to attend was...nobody, ever!  These other QB's got four years in a high level program where they play against the elite at college level. 

 

Josh Allen only played two full seasons at Wyoming and both years was good enough to take his team to a bowl game. 

 

Read the article to see the difference between Sam Darnold and Josh Allen in college.  

 

"Allen has less games under his belt in the NFL than Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson had in college alone. He’s not terrible. Nor is he a sure thing. It is completely fair to applaud Allen, or to criticize and question him and how good of a passer he is and will be. But there needs to be perspective either way."

 

I'm also not sold on the guy who is developing him as Buffalo Bills OC, calling plays and setting up game plans. He might have a name by association but his NFL record as an NFL OC speaks for itself. Six years as and NFL OC and never a passing offense better than 22nd. This is also the guy who thought Nathan Peterman should start the 2018 season and would be a reliable backup QB.  

[GreggTX]

LOL ... No guys. Well read is when you read Howard Zinn, not sports columnists. If you're reading so many sports columns, you need to get a life.