Balanced article on Josh - key takeaway .. he was and is a project

[RoyBatty is alive]

20 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

How many games, attempts or years does it take before we stop calling him a project? 

till  he is an alll pro. I think year 3 is enopugh to drop the "project" label fianlly.  Thought the same about EJ Manuel but he was always just a "project".

[Bangarang]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

If I’m remembering my Tyrod Taylor math correctly it’s about 6 seasons

??

[Straight Hucklebuck]

29 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I thought ‘half’ was generally nonspecific enough but I could write it again in crayon I suppose

You know what I was saying. 

 

If Allen went out and threw for 4,000 yards and 28 TDs, there would be no more questions about whether he could do it. That's what I'm saying. 

 

If he does a moderate improvement, 3,400 yards, 23 TDs, we may be in the same boat next year saying, can this offense score enough to really win, can Allen be good enough?

 

Nobody expects 5,000 yards, 50 TDs. Nobody is expecting 4,500 yards and 35 TDs. Reality will be probably be in the mid-3000's with 25ish TDs. Hopefully, that's good enough to get a Playoff win. That's as high of a bar as I could see. 

Edited May 13, 2020 by Straight Hucklebuck

[Billl]

12 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

We also happened to play the best pass defense in wk 3 but hey let sleeping narratives lie

The Bills played the 21st ranked pass defense in week 3.  Does that matter, or is this another one of your ‘50% is basically the same as 16%’ facts?

[Bangarang]

10 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

till  he is an alll pro. I think year 3 is enopugh to drop the "project" label fianlly.  Thought the same about EJ Manuel but he was always just a "project".

After this season (assuming we play 16 games) and not including the playoffs, Allen will have played in 44 games and started 43. I think that’s a reasonable enough sample size to have a good idea of what we have with him. 
 

He’s had consistent coaching, a top defense backing him up and now has a great receiving unit. If he’s going to establish himself as one of the leagues best QBs then I’d say it has to be now. If not then I say the chances of it ever happening are pretty slim.

Edited May 13, 2020 by Bangarang

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 minute ago, Bangarang said:

After this season (assuming we play 16 games) and not including the playoffs, Allen will have played in 44 games and started 43. I think that’s a reasonable enough sample size to have a good idea of what we have with him. 
 

He’s had consistent coaching, a top defense backing him up and now has a great receiving unit. If he’s going to establish himself as one of the leagues best QBs then I’d say it has to be now. If not then I say the chances of it ever happening are pretty slim.

Nailed it. 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

2 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

After this season (assuming we play 16 games) and not including the playoffs, Allen will have played in 44 games and started 43. I think that’s a reasonable enough sample size to have a good idea of what we have with him. 
 

He’s had consistent coaching, a top defense backing him up and now has a great receiving unit. If he’s going to establish himself as one of the leagues best QBs then I’d say it has to be now. If not then I say the chances of it ever happening are pretty slim.

 

Hard to argue with this. 

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Billl said:

The Bills played the 21st ranked pass defense in week 3.  Does that matter, or is this another one of your ‘50% is basically the same as 16%’ facts?

Typo. Week 4, which I'm sure had absolutely nothing do to with that particular cutoff lmfao

[Billl]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

Typo. Week 4, which I'm sure had absolutely nothing do to with that particular cutoff lmfao

WTF are you talking about?  The cutoff is when EJ Manuel got benched.  That was after 4 games in his second season.

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

You know what I was saying. 

 

If Allen went out and threw for 4,000 yards and 28 TDs, there would be no more questions about whether he could do it. That's what I'm saying. 

 

If he does a moderate improvement, 3,400 yards, 23 TDs, we may be in the same boat next year saying, can this offense score enough to really win, can Allen be good enough?

 

Nobody expects 5,000 yards, 50 TDs. Nobody is expecting 4,500 yards and 35 TDs. Reality will be probably be in the mid-3000's with 25ish TDs. Hopefully, that's good enough to get a Playoff win. That's as high of a bar as I could see. 

[RoyBatty is alive]

13 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

After this season (assuming we play 16 games) and not including the playoffs, Allen will have played in 44 games and started 43. I think that’s a reasonable enough sample size to have a good idea of what we have with him. 
 

He’s had consistent coaching, a top defense backing him up and now has a great receiving unit. If he’s going to establish himself as one of the leagues best QBs then I’d say it has to be now. If not then I say the chances of it ever happening are pretty slim.

 

I agree with all what you say, esp this year with a reasonable WR corps. year 3 same system  & coaches is "enough time".

[Straight Hucklebuck]

14 minutes ago, Billl said:

It’s true and it’s not true.  Lamar Jackson, Pat Mahomes, Russel Wilson, Josh Allen, Deshaun Watson, and Ryan Tannehill are all dual threat QBs who made the postseason.  Jackson is clearly the best runner of the group.  The rest of them are pretty much interchangeable in terms of running ability with the biggest difference being how often they do it.

 

There were 5 QBs who averaged 5+ rushes per game (Jackson, Allen, Murray, Minshew, and Watson).  That’s 2 rookies, 2 second year players, and a third year player.  Guys like Wilson and Mahomes are great runners who use their mobility to extend plays while looking for receivers and are selective about taking off running.  What you aren’t going to see is them trying to slam the ball in on first and goal from the 1 in a random regular season game.  There’s no reason to take hits like that when you could get the same result by handing it to a back.

 

Mahomes is on a different planet in terms of his vision. He sees everything. Every play that's available to be made. 

 

Cam is a good gauge, he peaked and broke down, but really had some huge rushing numbers (and really decent passing numbers) for awhile. No surprise that Beane and McDermott think Allen is a Cam-esque type player. And you know that because the day after the 2018 Draft Beane was talking about Allen doing designed runs like Cam. His stature is also not a coincidence. 

 

Wilson is a superior passer and has elite game IQ, and so he has managed his running.

 

We'll see with Allen, maybe the rushing goes up. But he did take his first concussion last year.  

 

 

[Billl]

1 minute ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

 

Mahomes is on a different planet in terms of his vision. He sees everything. Every play that's available to be made. 

 

Cam is a good gauge, he peaked and broke down, but really had some huge rushing numbers (and really decent passing numbers) for awhile. No surprise that Beane and McDermott think Allen is a Cam-esque type player. And you know that because the day after the 2018 Draft Beane was talking about Allen doing designed runs like Cam. His stature is also not a coincidence. 

 

Wilson is a superior passer and has elite game IQ, and so he has managed his running.

 

We'll see with Allen, maybe the rushing goes up. But he did take his first concussion last year.  

 

 

Totally agree with the Cam comparison as his upside given his current style. Steve McNair would be another.  IMO he needs to start morphing into more of a Roethlisberger style player if he’s going to be successful long term.  Being a capable runner who mixes in the occasional ‘wow’ throws can buy a young QB some time while they develop into an effective passer, but it’s not a viable substitute forever.  Eventually you have to be able to make consistently make the routine throws.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

18 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

You know what I was saying. 

 

If Allen went out and threw for 4,000 yards and 28 TDs, there would be no more questions about whether he could do it. That's what I'm saying. 

 

If he does a moderate improvement, 3,400 yards, 23 TDs, we may be in the same boat next year saying, can this offense score enough to really win, can Allen be good enough?

 

Nobody expects 5,000 yards, 50 TDs. Nobody is expecting 4,500 yards and 35 TDs. Reality will be probably be in the mid-3000's with 25ish TDs. Hopefully, that's good enough to get a Playoff win. That's as high of a bar as I could see. 

 

Excluding the stats from the last game of the year, when he only played 2 series, Josh averaged 205.6 yards and 1.33 TDs per game. Let's just say he plays that last game and hits those averages he would've finished with 3,289.60 yards & 21.33 TDs. I would say moderate improvement would be about 3,650 yards 25 TDs. To hit that he would have to throw for an additional 22 yards a game and find an extra TD pass every 4.5 - 5.0 games.

 

For a few references Watson threw for 3,852 yards and 26 TDs, Cousins 3,603 yards 26 TDs this past year.

 

IMO the one stat line that never get's the attention it deserves is his play in the 4th quarter in games where the score is +/- 7 points. Last year he was 36 for 63  522 yards   8.3 Avg   5 TDs   0 INTS    110.7 QB Rating. 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

15-12 young project QB and offense returning everyone that mattered and added Diggs? sign me up!!! 

Edited May 13, 2020 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[Dopey]

4 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

I would NEVER use such an ignorant phrase. No more excuses means you also are going to ignore all context. Like, really? Ok. Lets say JA's top 3 WRs, the entire O-line, and both starting RBs get injured week 1. Still no excuses? It is an absolute, and it is ignorant garbage. Sorry, I think people that think that simplistically are ... well, I'm sure you get where I'm going with this. 

 

Also, you want to know how I know you didn't read the articles?  They have nothing to do with JA, excuses, or anything of the like.  The articles were citations to a point I was making that less practice harms O-line development. If you read the articles, you would have known that saying, "I too feel Josh has 'no more excuses,' even after reading those articles" is nonsensical. You would have known to go deeper in the thread to figure out why I was posting those articles. 

I never said they had anything to do with Josh in particular. I got what you were doing by posting the links. All O-lines are dealing with less practice, so I don't see how it affects us more than other teams. He has a hell of a team around him and he knows the offense like a book(he's well read). If your extreme scenario comes to fruition, we can talk. Until then, Josh has "no more excuses". 

I like to read, by the way. It's fundamental.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

27 minutes ago, Dopey said:

I never said they had anything to do with Josh in particular. I got what you were doing by posting the links. All O-lines are dealing with less practice, so I don't see how it affects us more than other teams. He has a hell of a team around him and he knows the offense like a book(he's well read). If your extreme scenario comes to fruition, we can talk. Until then, Josh has "no more excuses". 

I like to read, by the way. It's fundamental.

 

How do you go from a poop emoji to this well-measured response? I mean, I still think the phrase is ignorant (because you never know until you know - its like trying to predict the future), but at least I do not feel like I'm talking to a loon.  

[Billl]

5 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

We tried that with Gore on goal to go at the 1 yard line and on 3rd & 4th and 1. The problem was it hardly ever resulted in a first down, so they found someone who could do it.

I looked this up to see if reality matches perception.  Pretty interesting, actually.  Josh had 4 TD runs of 1 yard.  Three of them were preceded by a Gore run from the 1 yard line that went for no gain.  One of those three was on 4th down.  Gore got stoned from the 1 yard line on first, second, and third downs before Josh ran it in.  You are absolutely right.

 

How in the world did the Jets look at Frank Gore and decide he had anything to offer?  He’s beyond washed.  179 touches, and he had 2 TDs.  Both were 1 yard runs.  They came in weeks 2 and 3.  By comparison, the corpse of Shady McCoy had 129 touches and 5 TDs.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

I looked this up to see if reality matches perception.  Pretty interesting, actually.  Josh had 4 TD runs of 1 yard.  Three of them were preceded by a Gore run from the 1 yard line that went for no gain.  One of those three was on 4th down.  Gore got stoned from the 1 yard line on first, second, and third downs before Josh ran it in.  You are absolutely right.

 

How in the world did the Jets look at Frank Gore and decide he had anything to offer?  He’s beyond washed.  179 touches, and he had 2 TDs.  Both were 1 yard runs.  They came in weeks 2 and 3.  By comparison, the corpse of Shady McCoy had 129 touches and 5 TDs.

 

It might have been the Cincy game???, but we were one yard line and Gore got stuffed three times in a row. He just doesn't have the drive in his legs anymore. Almost every time he was contacted he got stood up or pushed back. 

 

I have no idea what the Jets see in him, except maybe leadership and insight on the Bills? He did pretty well through week 7, but after that he was really bad. His yards per carry after week 7 were....1.4,  2.4,  2.5,  4.3, 1.2, 1.5, 1.5,  4.3 

 

 

[Ga boy]

16 hours ago, Hardhatharry said:

Lol widely considered... Come on man stop making stuff up.

It’s widely considered that a level playing field is level.