Balanced article on Josh - key takeaway .. he was and is a project

[ColoradoBills]

18 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

One minute he delivered us to the Playoffs (have to acknowledge a weak schedule and a defense that allowed 16.2 ppg), the next minute he's still raw. 

 

Yes we made the Playoffs. But just like the 10-3 loss in Jacksonville, it's a moral victory because it's another game that we should have won, but couldn't score enough points. 

 

Practice time should be over in 2020. He'll once again have any starter reps that may come in a TC, he'll cross the 32 games started mark, he'll have the same HC and OC for 3 years, improved skill players, same offensive line. I think Allen gets romanticized around here too much. 

 

Yes, the moments were awesome - Cowboys on Thanksgiving, his peak, the clincher against the Steelers on SNF - great to silence those fans, the no interception streak. 

 

But if he is a Franchise QB, there shouldn't have to be disclaimers anymore. Nobody is demanding Super Bowl titles. The highest bar I could set is just getting one Playoff win. But we romanticize his standing in the league and exaggerate his improvement. 

 

If he goes out and throws for 4,000 yards and 28 TDs, then we're on our way. That's what we have to see from Allen. In 1990, 3,000 and 20 TDs was a solid year. That's bottom tier NFL starter now. 

 

 

 

I'm hoping Josh can take a big step this year.  I am a fan of his and I know he's smart and putting in the effort.

I am giving him more time to develop compared to most highly drafted QBs and it's only proper to do that because of his career path.

 

Many high drafted QBs were highly recruited from High School.  They spent their summers going to QB camps and ended up in good programs on very

competitive college teams.  Josh was picking cantaloupes and going to JUCO.  Wyoming is way down the list as a NFL player producing college.

His injury at Wyoming surely didn't help him. 

 

I don't make excuses for myself and certainly don't for my favorite teams QB but I can rationally acknowledge he will take more time to catch up

and hopefully surpass his competition.  THIS COMING SEASON IS JOSH ALLEN'S BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN HIS LIFE.  I capitalized that not to yell but

to emphasize what I believe is true.  This season is the time for Josh Allen to start to put it all together.  He doesn't need to get to his ceiling but he has

to raise his floor by a lot.  Buffalo Bills fans want to see that and I'm certain Josh himself knows how important this coming year is.

 

I'm positive nobody wants Training Camp to start more than Josh Allen.  I'm looking forward to seeing what happens with him and in the end isn't

that what being a fan is all about!

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 minute ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I'm hoping Josh can take a big step this year.  I am a fan of his and I know he's smart and putting in the effort.

I am giving him more time to develop compared to most highly drafted QBs and it's only proper to do that because of his career path.

 

Many high drafted QBs were highly recruited from High School.  They spent their summers going to QB camps and ended up in good programs on very

competitive college teams.  Josh was picking cantaloupes and going to JUCO.  Wyoming is way down the list as a NFL player producing college.

His injury at Wyoming surely didn't help him. 

 

I don't make excuses for myself and certainly don't for my favorite teams QB but I can rationally acknowledge he will take more time to catch up

and hopefully surpass his competition.  THIS COMING SEASON IS JOSH ALLEN'S BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN HIS LIFE.  I capitalized that not to yell but

to emphasize what I believe is true.  This season is the time for Josh Allen to start to put it all together.  He doesn't need to get to his ceiling but he has

to raise his floor by a lot.  Buffalo Bills fans want to see that and I'm certain Josh himself knows how important this coming year is.

 

I'm positive nobody wants Training Camp to start more than Josh Allen.  I'm looking forward to seeing what happens with him and in the end isn't

that what being a fan is all about!

100% Agree. 

 

 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

15 minutes ago, Dopey said:

 

This is your way of showing you're well read and someone who says "no more excuses" isn't !? What a load of

I have used the phrase before. I'd put $ down that you've used the phrase before. I too feel Josh has "no more excuses", even after reading those articles. So where does someone who read the articles you posted and still feel Allen has "no more excuses" fit? This ought to be good.

 

 

I would NEVER use such an ignorant phrase. No more excuses means you also are going to ignore all context. Like, really? Ok. Lets say JA's top 3 WRs, the entire O-line, and both starting RBs get injured week 1. Still no excuses? It is an absolute, and it is ignorant garbage. Sorry, I think people that think that simplistically are ... well, I'm sure you get where I'm going with this. 

 

Also, you want to know how I know you didn't read the articles?  They have nothing to do with JA, excuses, or anything of the like.  The articles were citations to a point I was making that less practice harms O-line development. If you read the articles, you would have known that saying, "I too feel Josh has 'no more excuses,' even after reading those articles" is nonsensical. You would have known to go deeper in the thread to figure out why I was posting those articles. 

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

15 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Well since you bashed Bill yesterday for speaking in hyperbole. 

 

I guess I can throw it right back at you. 

 

It's not like that is the firm line that will be accepted. It's more like what season would put the questions away. 

 

3,300 yards and 22 TDs is borderline. He probably needs something like 3,600 yards and 25 TDs. Something that gets you out of 193 ypg and 1.5 TDs game. 

 

Allen was 23rd in yards and tied for 21st in TDs. He has to get out of the bottom third because we all know you can't count on elite defense carrying over year and year. What the 2012-2015 Seahawks did was the exception to the rule. 

 

Eliminate the last week of the season when he only played a couple series & threw only 5 passes and he's over 200 yards a game in 2019. 

 

While he was 23rd in passing yards and 21st in passing TDs, the league is going in a different direction at QB, drafting duel threat QBs is on the rise. Passing alone doesn't matter as much as it use to. Josh ranked top 10 in total TDs(9th) last year and I'm sure his passing and rushing yards combined would rank higher than his 23rd place in passing. 

 

In his first 16 games played(12 in 2018 + 4 in 2019) he had 13 TDs & 18 INTs, in his final 12 games he had 17 TDs & only 3 INTs. That's without a doubt a huge improvement.

 

He had little help from our running game, especially inside the 20 last year, only 4 combined rushing TDs by our RBs. If he needs to get better, which myself & most other people here are saying he needs to continue to improve, so does the running game.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

7 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

no offseason, no OTAs,  will not help his progress.   he'll be better than last year, assuming the O line is healthy , yes.  how much better, hard to say.  heavy travel schedule, better opponents than last year.  we will see.   every season is different.   Bills fans need to be careful about reading the press on this team too much.  lets just hope there is a season to watch

as long as he’s working with QB coach, it might actually help him. 
 

1) he knows the offense

2) he’s played with most of the guys and he will probably work 23 hours a day with Diggs once he can

3) with reduce off season OTA stuff he will get maybe two off-seasons worth of working on mechanics, muscle memory and working on throwing. 
 

might end up positive 

[CardinalScotts]

most bills fans know this....although wgr qb expectations not taking his history into account SO frustrating. No its not a level playing field how  those bozo's miss this is ..well honestly not shocking but still frustrating. Make or break year for Josh - at 23 hardly. McBeane has brought him along perfectly playing complimentary football as he grows. I thought the object was to win, fantasy football has left some chasing numbers instead of winning football games. He is improving they have a good team around him but as was not selected out of the SEC oh wait Fromm was. Mahomes threw 1350 passes in college to other nfl players in a competitive college conference, Allen threw 650 times at a smaller school to non NFL caliber players and versus over all non NFL players. Why would they be at the same point coming into the draft. As an example

[Straight Hucklebuck]

7 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

Eliminate the last week of the season when he only played a couple series & threw only 5 passes and he's over 200 yards a game in 2019. 

 

While he was 23rd in passing yards and 21st in passing TDs, the league is going in a different direction at QB, drafting duel threat QBs is on the rise. Passing alone doesn't matter as much as it use to. Josh ranked top 10 in total TDs(9th) last year and I'm sure his passing and rushing yards combined would rank higher than his 23rd place in passing. 

 

In his first 16 games played(12 in 2018 + 4 in 2019) he had 13 TDs & 18 INTs, in his final 12 games he had 17 TDs & only 3 INTs. That's without a doubt a huge improvement.

 

He had little help from our running game, especially inside the 20 last year, only 4 combined rushing TDs by our RBs. If he needs to get better, which myself & most other people here are saying he needs to continue to improve, so does the running game.

This a good statistical breakdown, thanks for putting in the work to present. 

 

I don't know if I fully buy the dual athlete QB argument simply because we haven't seen that mode of play work for a QB for an extended period of time. Eventually the hits pile up, or the supporting cast changes and it forces the Quarterback into the pocket more often, but so far, if Allen is chipping in with 8-9 rushing TDs/game, then yes it's a boost. 

 

Part of the run game lack of TD production was Allen vulturing four TDs from 1-yard out, that took away those simple plunges. 

 

I agree on the run game. McDermott has had it in his head that he needs to "establish" a physical run game. So we've been treated to guys on their last legs like Mike Tolbert, Chris Ivory and Frank Gore. Thankfully, they have pivoted from the old veteran in the positional group at RB and just went younger across the board. 

 

[GoBills808]

48 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Well since you bashed Bill yesterday for speaking in hyperbole. 

 

I guess I can throw it right back at you. 

 

It's not like that is the firm line that will be accepted. It's more like what season would put the questions away. 

 

3,300 yards and 22 TDs is borderline (that's Gardner Minshew as a rookie). He probably needs something like 3,600 yards and 25 TDs. Something that gets you out of 193 ypg and 1.5 TDs game. 

 

Allen was 23rd in yards (30th in ypg), 32nd in completion percentage, 24th in rating and tied for 21st in TDs. He has to get out of the bottom third because we all know you can't count on elite defense carrying over year and year. What the 2012-2015 Seahawks did was the exception to the rule. 

So I guess this must be the part when we pretend your very specific 4000 yards and 28tds was an example of ‘hyperbole’ instead of you pulling numbers out of thin air

 

 

[Dkollidas]

I believe it’s totally valid to consider him a “project” in the respect that compared to someone like Baker Mayfield, Allen threw about 600passes in college, while mayfield threw about 1500. So Allen is 800-900 live reps Behind guys like Mayfield who entered the league at the same time. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

So I guess this must be the part when we pretend your very specific 4000 yards and 28tds was an example of ‘hyperbole’ instead of you pulling numbers out of thin air

 

 

Does this sound familar GoBills808:

 

"Saying half was clearly hyperbole (probably should have made that clearer for your benefit), but your 16/7% is so oddly specific that you'd almost think 9/36 wasn't actually 25%.

 

Remind me to shoot myself in the face if you ever find me trolling another team's messageboard after the Bills win the Superbowl lmfao"

 

3 minutes ago, Dkollidas said:

I believe it’s totally valid to consider him a “project” in the respect that compared to someone like Baker Mayfield, Allen threw about 600passes in college, while mayfield threw about 1500. So Allen is 800-900 live reps Behind guys like Mayfield who entered the league at the same time. 

But once again, our GM and HC chose that. 

 

They determined Allen was worth trading up for, so you only get the project protection for so long. 

 

Beane has done his part on the roster. 

Edited May 13, 2020 by Straight Hucklebuck

[Billl]

2 hours ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

 

Isn't that an opinion also? 

It's as if he did nothing to help this team make the 2019 playoffs in his 2nd year, first as FT starter.  Besides being the first NFL Qb to lose a game in 3 different countries, how close did EJ come to delivering playoffs?

EJ Manuel’s rookie season was easily superior to Allen’s rookie season pretty much across the board.  He got benched after 4 games in his second season with a stat line of 7 TDs,(2 rushing) 3 INTs, 838 passing yards, 1 fumble, and 79 total points scored.

 

After 4 games of Josh’s second season, Josh had 6 TDs (3 rushing) 6 INTs, 903 passing yards, 5 fumbles, and 76 total points scored.

 

The difference is Buffalo’s defense gave up 24.25 PPG when Manuel was the starter and 16 PPG last season.  Buffalo scored more than 24 points 4 times last season.  The Bills scored more than 16 points 13 times in 2013.

 

Their productivity is essentially indistinguishable from one another’s.  EJ got yanked after 4 games his second year.  Josh didn’t.

[ColoradoBills]

12 minutes ago, CardinalScotts said:

most bills fans know this....although wgr qb expectations not taking his history into account SO frustrating. No its not a level playing field how  those bozo's miss this is ..well honestly not shocking but still frustrating. Make or break year for Josh - at 23 hardly. McBeane has brought him along perfectly playing complimentary football as he grows. I thought the object was to win, fantasy football has left some chasing numbers instead of winning football games. He is improving they have a good team around him but as was not selected out of the SEC oh wait Fromm was. Mahomes threw 1350 passes in college to other nfl players in a competitive college conference, Allen threw 650 times at a smaller school to non NFL caliber players and versus over all non NFL players. Why would they be at the same point coming into the draft. As an example

 

I agree with your statements in bold.  While I also agree that this is not a "make it or break it" year for JA this is a big season for him.

I'll even adapt the phrase using a different way of what I mean.  Josh need to develop enough to take any need for a "break it or make it" year off the table.

That usually comes into play with highly drafted QBs in their 4th or 5th season that has not yet proved he belongs in the NFL as a franchise guy.

 

I'm so looking forward to JA answering the call this year and taking control of the offense.  I'm sure no one knows that more than he does.

[GoBills808]

18 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Does this sound familar GoBills808:

 

"Saying half was clearly hyperbole (probably should have made that clearer for your benefit), but your 16/7% is so oddly specific that you'd almost think 9/36 wasn't actually 25%.

 

Remind me to shoot myself in the face if you ever find me trolling another team's messageboard after the Bills win the Superbowl lmfao"

 

But once again, our GM and HC chose that. 

 

They determined Allen was worth trading up for, so you only get the project protection for so long. 

 

Beane has done his part on the roster. 

I thought ‘half’ was generally nonspecific enough but I could write it again in crayon I suppose

[Bangarang]

How many games, attempts or years does it take before we stop calling him a project? 

[ColoradoBills]

18 minutes ago, Billl said:

EJ Manuel’s rookie season was easily superior to Allen’s rookie season pretty much across the board.  He got benched after 4 games in his second season with a stat line of 7 TDs,(2 rushing) 3 INTs, 838 passing yards, 1 fumble, and 79 total points scored.

 

After 4 games of Josh’s second season, Josh had 6 TDs (3 rushing) 6 INTs, 903 passing yards, 5 fumbles, and 76 total points scored.

 

The difference is Buffalo’s defense gave up 24.25 PPG when Manuel was the starter and 16 PPG last season.  Buffalo scored more than 24 points 4 times last season.  The Bills scored more than 16 points 13 times in 2013.

 

Their productivity is essentially indistinguishable from one another’s.  EJ got yanked after 4 games his second year.  Josh didn’t.

 

Comparing EJ Manuel and Josh Allen is so myopic I don't know where to start.  EJ Manuel was the #1 recruited High School QB prospect.

They traveled paths to the NFL that are 180 degrees apart.

 

If you can't see that maybe you should think about leaving the Bills team to Bills fans and go back to your team's boards.

https://www.si.com/college/2007/06/01/rivals-recruiting

 

 

Edited May 13, 2020 by ColoradoBills

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

24 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

This a good statistical breakdown, thanks for putting in the work to present. 

 

I don't know if I fully buy the dual athlete QB argument simply because we haven't seen that mode of play work for a QB for an extended period of time. Eventually the hits pile up, or the supporting cast changes and it forces the Quarterback into the pocket more often, but so far, if Allen is chipping in with 8-9 rushing TDs/game, then yes it's a boost. 

 

Part of the run game lack of TD production was Allen vulturing four TDs from 1-yard out, that took away those simple plunges. 

 

I agree on the run game. McDermott has had it in his head that he needs to "establish" a physical run game. So we've been treated to guys on their last legs like Mike Tolbert, Chris Ivory and Frank Gore. Thankfully, they have pivoted from the old veteran in the positional group at RB and just went younger across the board. 

 

 

Josh is different to all but one of the other dual threat QBs because of his size and he's still quick & athletic enough to do so. Cam is the only other QB that he compares to and Carolina did him no favors not investing enough resources to protect him. More of the damage he's taken has been inside the pocket as opposed to outside the pocket when running.

 

Josh did have 4 TDs from 1 yard out and also short yardage downs, but it was because our RBs had shown they couldn't do the job. Think Frank Gore up the gut for no gain over and over again. The image still haunts me.

 

Allen got better with INTs and intermediate routes last year. If he improves his long ball and improves against all out blitzes this year he will be well on his way to being the QB we all have been waiting for since we had Kelly.

 

 

21 minutes ago, Billl said:

EJ Manuel’s rookie season was easily superior to Allen’s rookie season pretty much across the board.  He got benched after 4 games in his second season with a stat line of 7 TDs,(2 rushing) 3 INTs, 838 passing yards, 1 fumble, and 79 total points scored.

 

After 4 games of Josh’s second season, Josh had 6 TDs (3 rushing) 6 INTs, 903 passing yards, 5 fumbles, and 76 total points scored.

 

The difference is Buffalo’s defense gave up 24.25 PPG when Manuel was the starter and 16 PPG last season.  Buffalo scored more than 24 points 4 times last season.  The Bills scored more than 16 points 13 times in 2013.

 

Their productivity is essentially indistinguishable from one another’s.  EJ got yanked after 4 games his second year.  Josh didn’t.

 

That's all pretty much true, but what you failed to include was after game 4 last year Allen threw 17 TDs & only 3 INTs over the last 12 games. If he hadn't you would have a much better case.

[GoBills808]

14 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

How many games, attempts or years does it take before we stop calling him a project? 

If I’m remembering my Tyrod Taylor math correctly it’s about 6 seasons

9 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

Josh is different to all but one of the other dual threat QBs because of his size and he's still quick & athletic enough to do so. Cam is the only other QB that he compares to and Carolina did him no favors not investing enough resources to protect him. More of the damage he's taken has been inside the pocket as opposed to outside the pocket when running.

 

Josh did have 4 TDs from 1 yard out and also short yardage downs, but it was because our RBs had shown they couldn't do the job. Think Frank Gore up the gut for no gain over and over again. The image still haunts me.

 

Allen got better with INTs and intermediate routes last year. If he improves his long ball and improves against all out blitzes this year he will be well on his way to being the QB we all have been waiting for since we had Kelly.

 

 

 

That's all pretty much true, but what you failed to include was after game 4 last year Allen threw 17 TDs & only 3 INTs over the last 12 games. If he hadn't you would have a much better case.

We also happened to play the best pass defense in wk 3 but hey let sleeping narratives lie

[Billl]

20 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

 

I don't know if I fully buy the dual athlete QB argument simply because we haven't seen that mode of play work for a QB for an extended period of time.

It’s true and it’s not true.  Lamar Jackson, Pat Mahomes, Russel Wilson, Josh Allen, Deshaun Watson, and Ryan Tannehill are all dual threat QBs who made the postseason.  Jackson is clearly the best runner of the group.  The rest of them are pretty much interchangeable in terms of running ability with the biggest difference being how often they do it.

 

There were 5 QBs who averaged 5+ rushes per game (Jackson, Allen, Murray, Minshew, and Watson).  That’s 2 rookies, 2 second year players, and a third year player.  Guys like Wilson and Mahomes are great runners who use their mobility to extend plays while looking for receivers and are selective about taking off running.  What you aren’t going to see is them trying to slam the ball in on first and goal from the 1 in a random regular season game.  There’s no reason to take hits like that when you could get the same result by handing it to a back.

[RoyBatty is alive]

8 hours ago, Hardhatharry said:

None of that really matters as much as you think which is why they keep taking practices away. Don't forget every other team is in the same boat so it is even field still. Don't use any excuses for Allen.

The guy that it will really hurt for development will be Jake Fromm.  Allen already has his off-season routine and Carson Palmer etc, he will be fine in year 3 imo.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

1 minute ago, Billl said:

It’s true and it’s not true.  Lamar Jackson, Pat Mahomes, Russel Wilson, Josh Allen, Deshaun Watson, and Ryan Tannehill are all dual threat QBs who made the postseason.  Jackson is clearly the best runner of the group.  The rest of them are pretty much interchangeable in terms of running ability with the biggest difference being how often they do it.

 

There were 5 QBs who averaged 5+ rushes per game (Jackson, Allen, Murray, Minshew, and Watson).  That’s 2 rookies, 2 second year players, and a third year player.  Guys like Wilson and Mahomes are great runners who use their mobility to extend plays while looking for receivers and are selective about taking off running.  What you aren’t going to see is them trying to slam the ball in on first and goal from the 1 in a random regular season game.  There’s no reason to take hits like that when you could get the same result by handing it to a back.

 

We tried that with Gore on goal to go at the 1 yard line and on 3rd & 4th and 1. The problem was it hardly ever resulted in a first down, so they found someone who could do it.