Billl Posted May 12, 2020 Posted May 12, 2020 (edited) 29 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: One is +1800 to be the MVP of the league coming off a solid year where he took big steps. He’s currently +6000 which is tied for 24th most likely to win among QBs. Trubisky is literally the next QB on the list at +8000 (tied with Foles). https://www.thescore.com/nfl/news/1973591 Edited May 12, 2020 by Billl
HT02 Posted May 12, 2020 Posted May 12, 2020 I don't think they are intentionally trying to "troll" Bills fans they just don't believe in Josh Allen as a QB1. Its an informed opinion and I hope Allen's play this year makes them not only regret sharing it but makes them reassess how they evaluate QBs in the future. I not only don't mind informed contrarian opinions like this I want to read them to understand their thought process. If it turns out to accurate it will certainly impact how I view the Bills selection of Allen's successor. I understand getting angry at writers who express strictly emotion based opinions and hate a player, team or team management no matter what they do but objective informed opinion is always welcomed. 2
Kirby Jackson Posted May 12, 2020 Author Posted May 12, 2020 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Billl said: He’s currently +6000 which is tied for 24th most likely to win among QBs. Trubisky is literally the next QB on the list at +8000 (tied with Foles). https://www.thescore.com/nfl/news/1973591 Not on an actual betting site. I was on Bovada yesterday and took a screenshot to share. As of right now, on an actual betting site, he is +1800.@Limeaid sent me how to make it smaller. Give me a few minutes to try. Edited May 12, 2020 by Kirby Jackson 1
Joe Miner Posted May 12, 2020 Posted May 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: Not on an actual betting site. I was on Bovada yesterday and took a screenshot to share. As of right now, on an actual betting site, he is +1800.@Limeaid sent me how to make it smaller. Give me a few minutes to try. First time you've ever needed to make it smaller? 2
Billl Posted May 12, 2020 Posted May 12, 2020 12 hours ago, GoBills808 said: What game have the Bills won with Allen at QB that they had no business winning? He wasn't horrible against Baltimore lmao. That's a top defense playing lights out at the time...Allen was average. The offensive line was getting abused and he took some shots. Be honest...you didn't watch the game, you looked @his stat line and a couple highlights. Here’s the link to the Ravens game. Feel free to watch it again. He was terrible. It’s okay to acknowledge that he repeatedly missed receivers by several yards and took huge sacks. https://gamepass.nfl.com/game/ravens-at-bills-on-12082019?condensed=true The Bills were down 16-0 late in the 3rd quarteragainst the Jets. Allen had thrown 2 INTs and lost 2 fumbles, but he led 3 straight scoring drives to win the game. 12 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: Not on an actual betting site. I was on Bovada yesterday and took a screenshot to share. As of right now, on an actual betting site, he is +1800.@Limeaid sent me how to make it smaller. Give me a few minutes to try. If you like him at +1800, go to Sportsbook.ag and get much better odds. They’re at 40-1 as of right now. https://www.sportsbook.ag/sbk/sportsbook4/nfl-betting/2020-season-futures-regular-season-mvp.sbk
Kirby Jackson Posted May 12, 2020 Author Posted May 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, Billl said: Here’s the link to the Ravens game. Feel free to watch it again. He was terrible. It’s okay to acknowledge that he repeatedly missed receivers by several yards and took huge sacks. https://gamepass.nfl.com/game/ravens-at-bills-on-12082019?condensed=true The Bills were down 16-0 late in the 3rd quarteragainst the Jets. Allen had thrown 2 INTs and lost 2 fumbles, but he led 3 straight scoring drives to win the game. If you like him at +1800, go to Sportsbook.ag and get much better odds. They’re at 40-1 as of right now. https://www.sportsbook.ag/sbk/sportsbook4/nfl-betting/2020-season-futures-regular-season-mvp.sbk Love him at 40:1, not a fan at 18:1. He has a VERY clear path the the MVP this year. If the Bills win 11 or 12 games and take down the mighty Pats they will be all of the buzz. If Allen takes another step forward he would be right in the mix. It’s absolutely worth money at 40:1. He could have 40 - 45 total TDs and 4,500 total yards. That’s basically the year that Cam had when he won MVP. I’m not saying that’s likely but it’s definitely possible. 1
ROCBillsBeliever Posted May 12, 2020 Posted May 12, 2020 15 hours ago, inaugural balls said: it's like asking who's nicer, Mother Teresa or Jeffrey Dahmer. What about Mother Dahmer? I hear she's a real hoot!
Billl Posted May 12, 2020 Posted May 12, 2020 Just now, Kirby Jackson said: Love him at 40:1, not a fan at 18:1. He has a VERY clear path the the MVP this year. If the Bills win 11 or 12 games and take down the mighty Pats they will be all of the buzz. If Allen takes another step forward he would be right in the mix. It’s absolutely worth money at 40:1. He could have 40 - 45 total TDs and 4,500 total yards. That’s basically the year that Cam had when he won MVP. I’m not saying that’s likely but it’s definitely possible. I agree. As of today, I don’t think an objective observer can say with any degree of certainty that JA is or isn’t the long term answer. This time next year, I don’t think that will be the case. I’m also of the opinion that if you can’t tell who a QB is after year 3, then it’s time to find his replacement because that’s how you wind up in purgatory with a guy like Andy Dalton or Marcus Mariota. If he puts it together, the Bills are a very real threat to win the AFC. I think they’re the third best team in the conference behind Kansas City and Baltimore. I don’t believe in Pittsburgh at all, and New England is going to be a tough out, but they aren’t a legit Super Bowl contender IMO.
FireChans Posted May 12, 2020 Posted May 12, 2020 (edited) 48 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said: I would take Allen too, but it's not this landslide, no-brainer type question. We have the hindsight of knowing how Trubisky's 3rd year panned out, so he has two poor/mediocre years, with an improvement year sandwiched in the middle. Those critical of the Allen pick based on what they saw in college have not been proven wrong IMO. He displays the same traits as his Scouting Reports said he would, and so 2020 is really a gut check on whether he can overcome that. If he goes out in 2020 and the same year as he did in 2019, the Bills would be smart to get more competition. Which is the same as Trubisky faces now. So the direct comparison has less significance than what arc you project Allen's 3rd year to be. It’s not hindsight when the question is who would you take TODAY. Not who would you take last year. Knowing what we know TODAY, no one is taking Trubisky over Allen going forward. No one. Again, you are trying to argue things PFF did not argue. And you're wrong on your other points. If Allen has the exact same year in 2020 that he did in 2019, he’d be far better than Trubisky because Mitch didn’t have the same year 3, he regressed hard. Edited May 12, 2020 by FireChans
Straight Hucklebuck Posted May 12, 2020 Posted May 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, FireChans said: It’s not hindsight when the question is who would you take TODAY. Not who would you take last year. Knowing what we know TODAY, no one is taking Trubisky over Allen going forward. No one. Again, you are trying to argue things PFF did not argue. And you're wrong on your other points. If Allen has the exact same year in 2020 that he did in 2019, he’d be far better than Trubisky because Mitch didn’t have the same year 3, he regressed hard. Mitch threw for 17 TDs and 10 Ints, 3,138 yards, with 209 ypg and rating of 83.0. He ran for 2 TDs, 2 lost fumbles. Allen was 20 TDs and 9 Ints, 3,089 yards, at 193 ypg and a rating of 85.3. Josh ran for 9 TDs, 4 lost fumbles. This is not a country mile type separation here. 1
Kirby Jackson Posted May 12, 2020 Author Posted May 12, 2020 13 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said: Mitch threw for 17 TDs and 10 Ints, 3,138 yards, with 209 ypg and rating of 83.0. He ran for 2 TDs, 2 lost fumbles. Allen was 20 TDs and 9 Ints, 3,089 yards, at 193 ypg and a rating of 85.3. Josh ran for 9 TDs, 4 lost fumbles. This is not a country mile type separation here. So Josh had 10 more TDs, 1 more turnover, 3 more yards a game (have to include rushing when talking about these 2) with 1 less year experience?
FireChans Posted May 12, 2020 Posted May 12, 2020 19 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said: Mitch threw for 17 TDs and 10 Ints, 3,138 yards, with 209 ypg and rating of 83.0. He ran for 2 TDs, 2 lost fumbles. Allen was 20 TDs and 9 Ints, 3,089 yards, at 193 ypg and a rating of 85.3. Josh ran for 9 TDs, 4 lost fumbles. This is not a country mile type separation here. So Josh Allen was clearly better in his second year than Trubisky was in his 3rd year, and Trubisky had already regressed hard, but there’s not a country mile difference? Sure man. Whatever. 4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: So Josh had 10 more TDs, 1 more turnover, 3 more yards a game (have to include rushing when talking about these 2) with 1 less year experience? And hasn’t yet fallen off a cliff and needed his team to trade for a vet to replace him. Wow, the debate rages on, I don’t know who I’d take at this point!
C.Biscuit97 Posted May 12, 2020 Posted May 12, 2020 https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcsports.com/chicago/bears/mitchell-trubisky-most-popular-bet-nfl-mvp%3famp
Straight Hucklebuck Posted May 12, 2020 Posted May 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, FireChans said: So Josh Allen was clearly better in his second year than Trubisky was in his 3rd year, and Trubisky had already regressed hard, but there’s not a country mile difference? Sure man. Whatever. And hasn’t yet fallen off a cliff and needed his team to trade for a vet to replace him. Wow, the debate rages on, I don’t know who I’d take at this point! Yeah we'll just ignore Trubisky's 2nd year with the 11-3 record and 95 QB rating. His fall off the cliff year is not that far from 2nd year Allen... Allen accounted for 0.625 more TDs per game that Trubisky in 2019. 1
FireChans Posted May 12, 2020 Posted May 12, 2020 1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcsports.com/chicago/bears/mitchell-trubisky-most-popular-bet-nfl-mvp%3famp "This doesn't mean he is the favorite, or anything close. Patrick Mahomes is still the favorite and there are plenty of other quarterbacks higher up the list. Khalil Mack's odds aren't even as long as Trubisky's, but long odds make for a tempting bet." Not only was your article completely irrelevant, you failed to understand the point of the article and sports gambling in general. The Triple Threat! 1
Straight Hucklebuck Posted May 12, 2020 Posted May 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, FireChans said: So Josh Allen was clearly better in his second year than Trubisky was in his 3rd year, and Trubisky had already regressed hard, but there’s not a country mile difference? Sure man. Whatever. And hasn’t yet fallen off a cliff and needed his team to trade for a vet to replace him. Wow, the debate rages on, I don’t know who I’d take at this point! Of course most fans around the league would take Allen. All I'm saying is its not some landslide, laughable, lopsided debate. Allen has been a bottom tier NFL passer since coming into the league. Now, stating again for the record, he had horrendous weapons in 2018 and was a rookie, so no hard judgement there. But let's be honest here, Allen did not show a Carson Wentz-esque improvement from Year 1 to Year 2 or anything. He got better relative to his rookie self and played to the positive side of his Scouting Reports. 3
FireChans Posted May 12, 2020 Posted May 12, 2020 Just now, Straight Hucklebuck said: Yeah we'll just ignore Trubisky's 2nd year with the 11-3 record and 95 QB rating. His fall off the cliff year is not that far from 2nd year Allen... Allen accounted for 0.625 more TDs per game that Trubisky in 2019. So he accounted for >8 more TD's on the year. I guess maybe that's why they were the 29th offense in the NFL last year. You don't have to ignore anything. Mitch had a good second year and then regressed hard, got benched for Chase Daniels and QB'd one of the worst offenses in the NFL last season. The debate is not "Trubisky's second year vs Allen's second year." The debate is who you take today. Some folks on here call me an Allen hater because I don't think the media should call him the MVP or the franchise guy yet. But if you're so blinded by your Allen take that you can't see "Trubisky v Allen today" is a insanely one sided argument, you're unsalvageable. Just now, Straight Hucklebuck said: Of course most every fan around the league would take Allen. All I'm saying is its not some landslide, laughable, lopsided debate. Allen has been a bottom tier NFL passer since coming into the league. Now, stating again for the record, he had horrendous weapons in 2018 and was a rookie, so no hard judgement there. But let's be honest here, Allen did not show a Carson Wentz-esque improvement from Year 1 to Year 2 or anything. He got better relative to his rookie self and played to the positive side of his Scouting Reports. FTFW Just now, FireChans said: Some folks on here call me an Allen hater because I don't think the media should call him the MVP or the franchise guy yet. But if you're so blinded by your Allen take that you can't see "Trubisky v Allen today" is a insanely one sided argument, you're unsalvageable. There's no need to continue to debate here. I vehemently disagree that Allen V Trubisky is a real debate by real people. No one has ever even brought it up except PFF and they already don't like Allen based on their system. And they STILL took Allen. It's a troll debate. No one is picking Mitch. No one.
Kirby Jackson Posted May 12, 2020 Author Posted May 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said: Yeah we'll just ignore Trubisky's 2nd year with the 11-3 record and 95 QB rating. His fall off the cliff year is not that far from 2nd year Allen... Allen accounted for 0.625 more TDs per game that Trubisky in 2019. Just for context Patrick Mahomes account for .1875 more TDs per game than Allen. That .625 number that you are trying to downplay is a chasm. 1
Straight Hucklebuck Posted May 12, 2020 Posted May 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: Just for context Patrick Mahomes account for .1875 more TDs per game than Allen. That .625 number that you are trying to downplay is a chasm. Its just a validation of the early conclusions on Allen: without his running, his not a viable starting QB. Mahomes has 76 passing TDs and 18 Ints in 31 games at a 303 ypg clip. We can get into how much sitting one year helped, Andy Reid, or his weapons, but he is in another galaxy from Allen as a passer. 5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: Just for context Patrick Mahomes account for .1875 more TDs per game than Allen. That .625 number that you are trying to downplay is a chasm. Mahomes first year as a starter he had a 1.79 TD factor over Allen. 1
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