Graphic: QBs hurt most by drops last year

[sherpa]

On the bright side, the Clay drop at the end of the Miami game likely got us Ed Oliver.

[PromoTheRobot]

11 hours ago, buffalover4life said:

It still had to be even worse in 2018. This video is comical. some fantastic passes in there though

 

 

 

That trade for KB will forever be Beane's low point.

[billsfan_34]

4 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

He's a 1 play gadget guy not worthy of a roster spot. He was awful in 2018.

I am glad I am not the only one who sees this. The kid is just not a good football player, at all. 

8 hours ago, billsfan_34 said:

McKenzie has the best worst hands and if the air blows he falls down. Kid has speed and thats where it ends. He wont make the 53 this time around.

Gunner- why are you skeptical- you see something that I dont? Guys with speed in the NFL are expected to take it to the house. First, catch the ball, and second, for the love of good break a tackle. You literally touch this kid and he falls down. 
 

As long as their is no major injuries to our WR corps this guy wont make the 53. Wanna make a friendly wager? 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, billsfan_34 said:

I am glad I am not the only one who sees this. The kid is just not a good football player, at all. 

Gunner- why are you skeptical- you see something that I dont? Guys with speed in the NFL are expected to take it to the house. First, catch the ball, and second, for the love of good break a tackle. You literally touch this kid and he falls down. 
 

As long as their is no major injuries to our WR corps this guy wont make the 53. Wanna make a friendly wager? 

 

I am not convinced he makes the 53 either but I think he is better than you two give credit for. I think McKenzie is an NFL roster guy and he had a good year in 2019 for us. He caught 70% of his targets and averaged over 6 yards a play in his gadget role in the run game. Bob Foster and Duke Williams on the other hand would be lucky to be allowed to sell popcorn in the stands.

[Gugny]

2 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

That trade for KB will forever be Beane's low point.

 

I see your KB trade and raise you going into a season with Peterman as the starter and only a rookie to back him up.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Everyone knows Allen didn't have a lot of help offensively. We also know Allen needs to improve. 

[Stank_Nasty]

16 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

I see your KB trade and raise you going into a season with Peterman as the starter and only a rookie to back him up.

Yup. No brainer. Love the dude, but that will always be in the closet. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

13 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

Other than a dropped TD, how does he draw a line from a dropped pass to missed points?

 

They kind of explain it here - but its based on first downs and where you are on the field i think.  

 

http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/stats/stats-explained/expected-points-and-epa-explained

[eball]

1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

That trade for KB will forever be Beane's low point.

 

And if a GM's "low point" is bringing in a once-productive WR he was familiar with to help the team in a playoff run, so be it.

[T master]

14 hours ago, buffalover4life said:

It still had to be even worse in 2018. This video is comical. some fantastic passes in there though

 

 

 

S**T just by what's on the tape here if they catch those balls his completion percentage goes up 10% ! 

 

Do they have a stat per year that tells how many drops by the WR's per team ? I think since they got Diggs & the others from this years offseason including the rookies it should be different .? ...

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, eball said:

 

And if a GM's "low point" is bringing in a once-productive WR he was familiar with to help the team in a playoff run, so be it.

 

Dropping watkins on a 1yr deal and gaining a 2nd + gaines, and dropping darby for a 3rd + matthews.  Ended up helping acquire Allen and drafting Philips. 

 

Matthews wasn't good and we were in the playoff race and in need - a guy was available in the mold of the Demaryus thomas/Andre Johnson role that I think dennison wanted (and didn't get in holmes).  They were still 100% a ball control zone-rushing offense, but the big contested guy on the outside for backshoulders was what they were looking for. Obviously he had the knee injury that basically made him part time for a month and a half, which didn't help with his contribution here.  

 

That he came in 2018 fat as hell was on him - but in 2017 i think the idea was there?  I was actually happy when beane just cut him because it was obvious he wanted no part in rebuilding and wasn't putting in effort.  

 

This is the guy the panthers traded for: Rashaan Gaulden.

[Mr. WEO]

25 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

They kind of explain it here - but its based on first downs and where you are on the field i think.  

 

http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/stats/stats-explained/expected-points-and-epa-explained

 

Thanks.

 

Here's the part I'm not sure about:  let's say on a long drive from your own 20 (1st and 10 from here starts with 2EP) moving successfully down the field each positive play has a positive EP.  In fact, once a team get's to the threshold of the red zone, that's a down and distance worth 4 EP in and of itself.  So it seems possible that over the course of a long successful TD drive, the sum of all plays' EPs can be greater than the 6 points actually scored.

 

If this is the case then it is hard to award a single dropped pass the equivalent of 3+ actual points scored per game (total EPA/16 for the Bills).

[416BillsFan]

How many teams will break the 70 barrier this year with off-season severely reduced?

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

4 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Thanks.

 

Here's the part I'm not sure about:  let's say on a long drive from your own 20 (1st and 10 from here starts with 2EP) moving successfully down the field each positive play has a positive EP.  In fact, once a team get's to the threshold of the red zone, that's a down and distance worth 4 EP in and of itself.  So it seems possible that over the course of a long successful TD drive, the sum of all plays' EPs can be greater than the 6 points actually scored.

 

If this is the case then it is hard to award a single dropped pass the equivalent of 3+ actual points scored per game (total EPA/16 for the Bills).

 

I mean I'm sure there's parts where like - dropping a TD pass hurts more.  or dropping a 3rd down conversion hurts more, since you went from expected points added of say 1 to negative?  I dunno they never explain this stuff well.  

[Jauronimo]

15 hours ago, buffalover4life said:

It still had to be even worse in 2018. This video is comical. some fantastic passes in there though

 

 

Zay Jones highlight reel featuring Kelvin Benjamin, Deonte Thompson, and Bob Foster.

[JESSEFEFFER]

54 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Thanks.

 

Here's the part I'm not sure about:  let's say on a long drive from your own 20 (1st and 10 from here starts with 2EP) moving successfully down the field each positive play has a positive EP.  In fact, once a team get's to the threshold of the red zone, that's a down and distance worth 4 EP in and of itself.  So it seems possible that over the course of a long successful TD drive, the sum of all plays' EPs can be greater than the 6 points actually scored.

 

If this is the case then it is hard to award a single dropped pass the equivalent of 3+ actual points scored per game (total EPA/16 for the Bills).

It's more than 1 per game.  Closer to 2. 

[PromoTheRobot]

2 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

I see your KB trade and raise you going into a season with Peterman as the starter and only a rookie to back him up.

 

That's more on McDermott, isn't it?

1 hour ago, eball said:

 

And if a GM's "low point" is bringing in a once-productive WR he was familiar with to help the team in a playoff run, so be it.

 

Oh. no complaints from me on how Beane  is doing! Just noting THAT was a rough patch.

[ColoradoBills]

"Drops are bad, MKay"!

[billsfan_34]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not convinced he makes the 53 either but I think he is better than you two give credit for. I think McKenzie is an NFL roster guy and he had a good year in 2019 for us. He caught 70% of his targets and averaged over 6 yards a play in his gadget role in the run game. Bob Foster and Duke Williams on the other hand would be lucky to be allowed to sell popcorn in the stands.

6 yards a play imo just isnt good enough with the speed he has. Foster and Duke are most likely gone. Talent and depth have caught up to them. 

[Buffaloed in Pa]

How many wide open receivers missed also. Alot deep