Process Posted May 8, 2020 Author Posted May 8, 2020 47 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Titans ML youre welcome Don't like it. Think they could take a step back this year plus Denver's got a lot of talent and are at home.
Billznut Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 1 hour ago, Process said: Way too early for these but fun to look at. Bills pretty big favorites not surprising. How are the dolphins getting 7.5 pts at home vs NE?? I might end up pounding that if it sticks (assuming Fitz is the starter) Vegas and ESPN will be the last two entities to stop hugging the Pats jock. It’ll be interesting to see who jumps off the train first.
GoBills808 Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 2 hours ago, Process said: Don't like it. Think they could take a step back this year plus Denver's got a lot of talent and are at home. I'll take AFCCG teams getting points vs trendy pick WK1 any day. Lock and his 156 attempts against bad defenses last year doesn't do it for me 2 hours ago, Billl said: You and every other $50 player. Denver and New England all day. I’m planning on pounding the Panthers all year. Panthers over 5.5 wins in 2020 might be my new ‘Bills over 6.5 in 2019’. Boy are their message board fans going to get sick of me when I’m their problem instead of yours lmao ok hotshot. I posted my receipts all last season
foreboding Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 3 hours ago, RiotAct said: sounds about right, we’re at home and objectively a better team than the Jets at pretty much every position. True. But that tackle they got is gonna be a road grader by the middle of the season.
SydneyBillsFan Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 Can someone please explain something to the dumb Aussie who loves to bet on the NFL: Why oh why in US betting lines for a two- headed contest does the inconsistency exist where some teams receive a full point start (or "spread") whilst for others there is a fractional points start? For example - why are the Bills giving the Jets +7 instead of + 6.5 or + 7.5?? Who the hell wins the bet if the Bills win 21-14? Is this a deliberate scam? What am i not getting here?
Warcodered Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 26 minutes ago, SydneyBillsFan said: Can someone please explain something to the dumb Aussie who loves to bet on the NFL: Why oh why in US betting lines for a two- headed contest does the inconsistency exist where some teams receive a full point start (or "spread") whilst for others there is a fractional points start? For example - why are the Bills giving the Jets +7 instead of + 6.5 or + 7.5?? Who the hell wins the bet if the Bills win 21-14? Is this a deliberate scam? What am i not getting here? I'm not super familiar but I think it depends on what your betting in relation to that number which I think is the estimated most likely point difference based on people's betting.
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 9 hours ago, Warcodered said: but they might just rub that lamp one more time for some Fitzmagic. Every time that happens, nine months later there's another one! 9 hours ago, GoBills808 said: Titans ML youre welcome The farm? Or just the chicken coop? 1
ExWNYer Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 5 hours ago, foreboding said: True. But that tackle they got is gonna be a road grader by the middle of the season. He could easily eat his way out of the league by then, too. He is a local kid. And you're right, he's huge and strong. He threw around lesser competition like they were rag dolls. It will be interesting to see how quickly he adjusts to playing against the best players in the world. Of all the OTs taken high this year, he has the biggest bust potential, IMO. Time will tell.
Process Posted May 8, 2020 Author Posted May 8, 2020 2 hours ago, SydneyBillsFan said: Can someone please explain something to the dumb Aussie who loves to bet on the NFL: Why oh why in US betting lines for a two- headed contest does the inconsistency exist where some teams receive a full point start (or "spread") whilst for others there is a fractional points start? For example - why are the Bills giving the Jets +7 instead of + 6.5 or + 7.5?? Who the hell wins the bet if the Bills win 21-14? Is this a deliberate scam? What am i not getting here? In that case it's a push and no one wins, you get your money back. 1
IDBillzFan Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 11 hours ago, NewEra said: I think it’ll be 5.5 2 weeks from game time. My book has it there already this morning. 1
NewEra Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 49 minutes ago, IDBillzFan said: My book has it there already this morning. It’s really what it should be imo
SCBills Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 However it shakes out with fans-in-stadiums aside, getting the Jets Week One should be great news for our DL. The Jets made significant investments to rebuild their OL, but will be rolling out an almost completely new OL, first time playing live together, with a rookie Tackle in his first NFL game. That unit could be solid as the year progresses, but Offensive Line cohesion is a big deal and something we struggled with last year as we basically did what the Jets are attempting to do.
IDBillzFan Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 31 minutes ago, NewEra said: It’s really what it should be imo My gambling days are behind me, but for a long time, when it was Bills/Jets or Bills/Fish, if the line was over 3, I'd almost always take the points for the win.. It was the other 8 games I got wrong that cured my habit.
Billl Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 12 hours ago, GoBills808 said: I'll take AFCCG teams getting points vs trendy pick WK1 any day. Lock and his 156 attempts against bad defenses last year doesn't do it for me lmao ok hotshot. I posted my receipts all last season I’m not saying you’re wrong. (I wasn’t trying to “talk down” to you though I see how it came across that way so sorry about that.) I’m well aware of the fact that anyone’s picks are as good as mine. My initial reaction when the lines were posted was to jump on the Titans. That was actually the one that jumped out at me. I have learned to bet the other way when that happens. My guess is that the smaller bets come in huge on Tennessee and the big money goes Denver. There are times like this when it seems like Vegas is begging for action on one side. This is one of those times, so I’ll fade it. I’d be curious to hear any strategies you use. Some of my faves: Don't bet on games I’m emotionally invested in. For me, that means the Chiefs. I’ll play point totals, but not money line or spreads. I love the home team in East coast early games when the road team is traveling 2+ time zones. That’s more common in college football. When the O/U is unusually high, take the over and vice versa. That’s more of a CBB thing, but it still works in the NFL. NFL week 2 is the best week of the year. Bet the opposite of whatever the teams did week 1. If a team that won big plays a team that got blown out, take the points. I also like to closely follow one or two less trendy teams that I have no attachment to and get a feel for them. Never got enough of a feel for the Bills to put action on them in any given week last year. They just varied too much from week to week. I had a feeling they would be pretty good last year, so I took the over. Like I said earlier, this year I think it’ll be Carolina. Everyone seems to think they’re going to be terrible. I don’t see them being good, but 5.5 wins is a pretty low bar. I’m not 100% on this one yet, but I’m leaning heavily that way. I still really like the Bills over, so you’re probably stuck with me for a while. Just booked a trip to Vegas last night.
Slippery Rubber Mats Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 Broncos giving points to the Titans? I'll run to the bank with Titans and the points.
y2zipper Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 There's a few under/over win totals I'd bet this year. I'm with you on liking Carolina at over 5.5 wins. Houston over 7.5 wins New England under 9 wins Green Bay over 9.5 wins Chicago under 8.5 wins The week 1 lines don't look that interesting to me right now though.
Chandler#81 Posted May 9, 2020 Posted May 9, 2020 We’re historically bad when favored by 7+. I can’t bet against the Bills so I wouldn’t touch it with a social distancing pole.
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