Convince me that the 2020 Pats are good...

[C.Biscuit97]

40 minutes ago, ALLEN-2-DIGGS-TD!! said:

They will be lucky to win 4 games.

I would bet money on this.  You in?

 

and they are going to be us from last year.  Limit your qb’s mistakes and play mistake free offense, have a good defense, and hope to win games late.  I don’t believe in their qbs but I think people are way underrated them.  I predict 9 games wins the division.  The schedule is rough. 

[ThurmasThoman]

OP: You're asking why the Patriots are going to be good, but then putting restrictions on the conversation like "don't say they haven't had a losing season this century, that doesn't count."

Well, I'm going to "break your rules" and say that they'll be good because, historically, they're a very good football team, and until proven otherwise, that's what they are!

If being a Bills fan has taught me nothing else, it's that for every player going into a season that I'm familiar with that I expect to be lights out, there are 5 players who come out of nowhere and are better--while the player I expected to dominate regresses for god only knows what reason.

Belichick has proven, for 20 years running, that he cuts bait early and reloads well. Just because the guys doing the dirty work for him aren't household names, doesn't mean they don't win him a championship every 3 years or so. With no real drop off at any point.

Just because their roster is a bunch of underrated no names, it's too early to say they're dead. 

They could just as easily go 12-4 and win the conference as 4-12.

And FWIW, when Bledsoe fell on the tip of that ball in the Meadowlands, I thought their season was over because they handed the reigns over to some backup nobody.

Maybe Stidham will suck--he's sure looked the part of a bad QB.

But maybe he'll be amazing.

Quite frankly, I trust Belichicks eye for talent more than mine, or yours.

[Kirby Jackson]

5 minutes ago, JohnnyGold said:

OP: You're asking why the Patriots are going to be good, but then putting restrictions on the conversation like "don't say they haven't had a losing season this century, that doesn't count."

Well, I'm going to "break your rules" and say that they'll be good because, historically, they're a very good football team, and until proven otherwise, that's what they are!

If being a Bills fan has taught me nothing else, it's that for every player going into a season that I'm familiar with that I expect to be lights out, there are 5 players who come out of nowhere and are better--while the player I expected to dominate regresses for god only knows what reason.

Belichick has proven, for 20 years running, that he cuts bait early and reloads well. Just because the guys doing the dirty work for him aren't household names, doesn't mean they don't win him a championship every 3 years or so. With no real drop off at any point.

Just because their roster is a bunch of underrated no names, it's too early to say they're dead. 

They could just as easily go 12-4 and win the conference as 4-12.

And FWIW, when Bledsoe fell on the tip of that ball in the Meadowlands, I thought their season was over because they handed the reigns over to some backup nobody.

Maybe Stidham will suck--he's sure looked the part of a bad QB.

But maybe he'll be amazing.

Quite frankly, I trust Belichicks eye for talent more than mine, or yours.

The restrictions are there because they are a crutch. What they did in 2008 is irrelevant. I believe that Matthew Slater is the ONLY player still on the roster (maybe Chung). Because they were good then doesn’t have any relation to now outside of BB, and a couple of players. You can use coaching to support your argument. Just don’t be lazy saying that other players were good when they played against other players 12 years ago. There is not correlation.

[section122]

1 hour ago, TroutDog said:

This is an interesting take. Most here have said BB won’t tank and one could consider that not tanking and yet lead them to their next QB. BB may have his sites set on besting Shula’s total win record. 

 

Front offices tank not coaches and players imo.  I don't think with as competitive as BB is, that he can throw a year away especially since I agree he is chasing that all time wins mark.  Next year has another good crop of QBs so I don't think they need to tank to get their guy. 

[TroutDog]

Just now, section122 said:

 

Front offices tank not coaches and players imo.  I don't think with as competitive as BB is, that he can throw a year away especially since I agree he is chasing that all time wins mark.  Next year has another good crop of QBs so I don't think they need to tank to get their guy. 

That’s my point in them doing it like Beane did and cleaning out cap and getting a low win but not terrible season...just under mediocre. 
 

Doing so allows them to say they didn’t tank while also being high up enough in the ‘21 draft to get their next QB. 
 

Also important to remember that BB is that team: he makes all decisions in almost every case (Brady is the only one that I’m aware of Kraft intervening). 

[C.Biscuit97]

6 minutes ago, section122 said:

 

Front offices tank not coaches and players imo.  I don't think with as competitive as BB is, that he can throw a year away especially since I agree he is chasing that all time wins mark.  Next year has another good crop of QBs so I don't think they need to tank to get their guy. 

Such a good point.  I wish Bills fans were setting the Pats wins over/ under instead of Vegas because I would hammer it.  The Fins got rid of all their good players,  had one of the least talented rosters to ever begin a season, started Fitz, who a lot of people laughed at, and won 5 games.  Is the Pats roster worse than that? Come on.  I think their absolute basement is 6 and I would not be shocked if they won 10.  

[section122]

5 minutes ago, TroutDog said:

That’s my point in them doing it like Beane did and cleaning out cap and getting a low win but not terrible season...just under mediocre. 
 

Doing so allows them to say they didn’t tank while also being high up enough in the ‘21 draft to get their next QB. 
 

Also important to remember that BB is that team: he makes all decisions in almost every case (Brady is the only one that I’m aware of Kraft intervening). 

 

Yep I was agreeing with you sorry if that got lost in translation! 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

Convince me that the 2020 Pats are good...

 

Good what – people?  ?

[Kirby Jackson]

5 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Such a good point.  I wish Bills fans were setting the Pats wins over/ under instead of Vegas because I would hammer it.  The Fins got rid of all their good players,  had one of the least talented rosters to ever begin a season, started Fitz, who a lot of people laughed at, and won 5 games.  Is the Pats roster worse than that? Come on.  I think their absolute basement is 6 and I would not be shocked if they won 10.  

I am pounding the under (especially if I get it at 9). 

[C.Biscuit97]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I am pounding the under (especially if I get it at 9). 

I hope you win a lot of money but I would hate the idea of betting against the pats.  But it would be such a great bet to win.  Side note, because of this year in the nba, I absolutely hate o/u season bets.  The payoff is so long!  I might not know about my nba bets until august. 

[mjd1001]

6 to 8 win team this year for the Pats.

 

Without Brady in NE, I think Bill B. has a 19-18 record (about .500).  Without Brady including the Browns, he is well under .500.  D unit should still be good, but not as good as last year because they are aging pretty quickly (1st half the season they allowed under 8 points per game....2nd half of the season, they allowed an average of over 20 points per game.)  Should be a top 10 D-unit (but no longer elite) and a well below average offense....plus a tough(er) schedule make 8 wins a best case scenario to me.

Edited May 6, 2020 by mjd1001

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

4 hours ago, section122 said:

@Kirby Jackson I won't argue that.  In fact I will take the complete opposite side of the fence.  I am expecting the Pats* to be in the top 10 drafting next year and getting one of Fields, Lawrence (don't think they will be bad enough), Trey Lance, or a different top qb prospect.  5-11 drafted 5th overall and 6-10 got the 9th pick.  Next year they will have a ton of cap room as well as a ton of open roster spots.

 

Even though Brady had a down year he was still Brady.  The second Pats/Bills game showed that he still had something left in the tank.  His quick release and decision making covers a lot of o-line issues.  Scar retiring is another huge loss.  They took a huge step back a couple of years ago when he left and I expect the same.  The offense already wasn't top notch and lost 2 very important pieces.

 

The defensive losses have not been discussed enough.  VanNoy and Collins may struggle elsewhere but they were great pieces for the defense.  

 

Special Teams also took a hit losing their coordinator and Nate Ebner to the Giants.  Gost wasn't his normal and injured self but still losing one of the most reliable kickers in the league and replacing him with a rookie is a question mark at the least.

 

On viewing it looks like all 3 phases of the ball have gotten worse.  I can see 6-10 happening and I only go that high because of how great BB is as a coach.  The East has the dreaded west/west combo leading to a lot of cross country travel, and the 1st place schedule to contend with.  For the first time in a long time I don't see a guaranteed win on their schedule.  Each team they play next year has at least an argument in their favor.

 

At WR - Full offseasons for Harry and Sanu - as well as a small addition of Lee at WR.  Last season they had Gordon and Brown be disasters and get suspended.  They still have Edelman.

 

At TE - Gronk retired in 2019, that sucked as they had nothing behind him.  Now they have 2 players they drafted this season who are likely more talented than anything they carried last year.

 

At OL - Wynn was banged up all year and they started newhouse.  David Andrews missed the entire season.  This had a huge effect on the play of their line.  

 

At RB - Still rolling with Michel and White, with Burkhead and Bolden mixed in.  2 years ago Michel avged 4.5 per carry.

 

Defensive losses were at LB - but they added Dugger (their chung big nickel type), Uche, Jennings in rounds 2 and 3, with Winovich drafted last year.  They lost Flowers the year before and actually improved on defense.  They were also a better defense than buffalo last year by a fairly considerable margin.  They took the ball away much more, and allowed fewer yards and points... first downs... 3rd downs... whatever.  

 

Kicker - they won 12 games with one of the worst kicking game in the league last year.  27/34 on FGs, and 39/45 on XPs.  

 

So yes the BIG one - they lost brady at QB.  Which will hurt their YPG and PPG values a bit i would think.  What are they looking for from Stidham?  Something like what Rudolph/Hodges were able to do with fewer turnovers? Trubiskey's numbers?  Could they win with that?  Smaller margin for error, but do-able.  And the defense will probably put them in some good situations. 

 

Also - If they put up the same points as buffalo last year (good for 23rd in the league) and yards (good for 24th), theoretically they should do similarly in standings.  

[Kirby Jackson]

29 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I hope you win a lot of money but I would hate the idea of betting against the pats.  But it would be such a great bet to win.  Side note, because of this year in the nba, I absolutely hate o/u season bets.  The payoff is so long!  I might not know about my nba bets until august. 

Ha ha, last year I crushed it on the NFL season o/u. I had cashed some of them by like mid-November. Couldn’t collect for like 2 months, it was horrible.

[Nuncha]

Until they show they are not good, you have to assume they are.  Billy B is still there and they have a solid D.

[TroutDog]

47 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Such a good point.  I wish Bills fans were setting the Pats wins over/ under instead of Vegas because I would hammer it.  The Fins got rid of all their good players,  had one of the least talented rosters to ever begin a season, started Fitz, who a lot of people laughed at, and won 5 games.  Is the Pats roster worse than that? Come on.  I think their absolute basement is 6 and I would not be shocked if they won 10.  

I agree it’s a great point save the teams where the HC runs the show a’la Pats***, Texans, etc. 

 

The decision rides with that coach and, possible, the owner. 

[Happy]

The Pats will be competitive (9-7 or so) but will not be dominant.  They'll rely on their defense to keep games close and and offense just good enough to beat marginally good teams.  No reason why the Bills can't sweep them.  Belichick doesn't know how to tank, so that is off the table.  But no, they won't be good.

[John from Riverside]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea that is their best case scenario. Maybe Sony Michel properly breaks out and they can run it down people's throats. Maybe the two young guys (who I do like) Uche and Jennings can be impactful on the edge as rooks and their secondary as a result continues to hold things down. But I just don't see how they move the ball in the air, like at all. If they had AB still for example, then I could see you can run it well, screen and swing pass well, and then use play action to take shots and make plays down the field with AB and you could see them maybe getting to 20 fairly often. But without at least one proper threat at wideout or tight end I don't see how they manage it.

 

Best case scenario 7-9. worst case 4-12.

The patriots have all the makings of a team looking to draft a franchise qb in the next draft

[Kirby Jackson]

3 minutes ago, Azucho98 said:

Until they show they are not good, you have to assume they are.  Billy B is still there and they have a solid D.

Why? That’s the whole part of my argument. We are fine saying that other teams will take a step forward or back. We look at their rosters, schedules, coaching and situations. From there we form an opinion of the team will be good or bad. As an example, most believe that the Broncos, Cardinals and Dolphins will be much improved. We don’t just say, “they’re bad until the aren’t.” When it comes to the Pats we just say that “they will be good until they’re not.” It’s absolutely a double standard.

 

Again, I have NO ISSUE if people think that the Pats will be good. There have been some well-reasoned arguments made here as to why they will. The one argument that I will continue to push back on is that “they will be good because they used to be good.” 

[inthebuff]

5 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Kirby -

 

I don't know how good the Pats will be.   I don't pay attention to any team other than the Bills.   However, I'll say the same thing I've been saying for years:

 

The NFL game is about coaching and organization much more than it is about players.   There is no salary cap on coaches, and there is a salary cap on players.   The result is that the best coaches go where they want, but all teams have relatively similar levels of on-field talent.   

 

In that environment, having the guy who is unquestionably the greatest coach in the history of the game is a huge advantage.  Belichick and his team of coaches win two or three or four games that just about all other coaches lose.   So if his player talent is good enough to go 6-10, his team is going to win 8 or 10 games.   

 

As a consequence, I'm not declaring the Patriots dead until I see the stake through their heart.   And I hope the Bills put it there.  

 

100% agree.  

 

Let's look at the schedule 

Bills at home - possible W

Bills away - L

Jets at home - W

Jets away - W

Dolphins at home - W

Dolphins away - possible L

Conference games prediction 4-2.  I can see the Bills beating them twice and them sweeping the Jets and Dolphins.  I can also see them going 1-1 against us and 3-1 against the Jets and Dolphins).  I don't see them going 3-3.

 

Non-Conference Away

at Texans - W 

at Chargers - W

at Rams - W

at Chiefs - L

at Seahawks - L

3-2

 

Non-Conference Home

Ravens - L

49ers - L

Raiders - W

Broncos - W

Cardinals - W

3-2

 

Their record would be 10-6, which may be good enough to get to the expanded playoffs. 

 

[njbuff]

The Dolphins and Jets are still bumbling organizations.

 

So, there are 4 wins right there.

 

The Bills haven't won a division title in 25 years, so they have to prove they can do it.

 

And the Patriots for the first time in 18 years, they aren't a favorite to win the division.