Convince me that the 2020 Pats are good...

[section122]

@Kirby Jackson I won't argue that.  In fact I will take the complete opposite side of the fence.  I am expecting the Pats* to be in the top 10 drafting next year and getting one of Fields, Lawrence (don't think they will be bad enough), Trey Lance, or a different top qb prospect.  5-11 drafted 5th overall and 6-10 got the 9th pick.  Next year they will have a ton of cap room as well as a ton of open roster spots.

 

Even though Brady had a down year he was still Brady.  The second Pats/Bills game showed that he still had something left in the tank.  His quick release and decision making covers a lot of o-line issues.  Scar retiring is another huge loss.  They took a huge step back a couple of years ago when he left and I expect the same.  The offense already wasn't top notch and lost 2 very important pieces.

 

The defensive losses have not been discussed enough.  VanNoy and Collins may struggle elsewhere but they were great pieces for the defense.  

 

Special Teams also took a hit losing their coordinator and Nate Ebner to the Giants.  Gost wasn't his normal and injured self but still losing one of the most reliable kickers in the league and replacing him with a rookie is a question mark at the least.

 

On viewing it looks like all 3 phases of the ball have gotten worse.  I can see 6-10 happening and I only go that high because of how great BB is as a coach.  The East has the dreaded west/west combo leading to a lot of cross country travel, and the 1st place schedule to contend with.  For the first time in a long time I don't see a guaranteed win on their schedule.  Each team they play next year has at least an argument in their favor.

[ALF]

Since NE*  has $2M cap space , I would think they go with the QB they have and see if the D  and good coaching can carry them. If they don't make the playoffs they can blame Brady and the dead cap he left. They must be bored with winning anyway.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/cap/

Edited May 6, 2020 by ALF

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Why would I want to convince you of that? I agree with you. The wheel has finally turned in our favor.

 

[Troll Toll]

They cheat and that makes them a tough opponent regardless of their roster. They’ve also basically been allowed to hold as much as they want without getting called. It will be interesting to see if that was done by the refs to protect Brady (now that he’s gone) or if that tradition continues. When you don’t play under the same rules, the team can be competitive.

Edited May 6, 2020 by Troll Toll

[GaryPinC]

Why they could be a good team:  defense will keep them in games, can the offense do enough? 

 

After looking at a variety of Stidham's preseason games and some of his college film I see why New England got him.  Very similar to Brady in making quick decisions and getting the ball out on an Auburn offense that shares a lot of similarities to the Patriots.

 

Stidham's smart, but I'm not impressed by his arm though it may be adequate.   Patriots might get over .500 with a solid running game and enough YAC and production from their receivers.  They probably need to pull out a lucky win in the first 4 also.  Seriously doubt they'll be better than the Bills.

 

So, I do believe Stidham will get his chance to be the man this year.  They'll let him learn by doing and hope to coach him up enough to be relevant late in the season.

 

Realistically, I think they'll be just under .500.   Stidham's physical talent is more limited than Brady (in his prime) and I think the speed of the NFL will be a problem for him.  His velocity really falls off under pressure and after 15 yards.    He's going to live for the short passes and NFL defenses are going to figure that out.   Definitely a chance the wheels fall off for him but I'm not going to short change Belichick's coaching ability, so I think a mediocre season for the Pats as they prepare for the future.

 

I figure they evaluate Stidham this year, prioritize the need to draft a replacement, and see how things play out next year.

 

[Stank_Nasty]

2 hours ago, Real McNasty said:

I see them as a .500 team. That said, they went 11-5 with friggin Matt Cassel and that D is still a top 5 unit today.

 

We'll see if the system QB thing is real very soon here between the Pats and Bucs

Matt cassel took the chiefs to the playoffs with 27 td and just 7int  2 years after that as well. He was a capable qb at that point in his career. People always seem to think bellicheck was working with a bottom of the barrel qb when cassel came in. That’s simply not the case. 

Edited May 6, 2020 by Stank_Nasty

[Prospector]

I am thinking, that without Brady in a Patriots logo, they will stop getting the superstar ref calls. Even when Brady was hurt, they were still his team and considered top quality, so they got the benefit of the doubt calls. kinda like the Jordan Bulls... calls magically went their way in key situations, but when Jordan leaves, all the calls tend to start to even out. I think the same will happen. The sub conscious of the refs will know that Brady isn't the QB, so maybe that actually was an illegal pick or push off. Maybe the horse collar grab block by their RT is illegal, and not just a bang bang play protecting the greatest ever born. I really think we may see a swing in favorable Pats calls from here on out... which I hope relates to a couple extra 'L's for that Cheatriots.

[jrober38]

The Pats will wind up with a top pick and an elite QB prospect next year. 

[Ecmic82]

I don’t think their defense is good enough. When they finally stopped benefitting from record-shattering turnover variance last year, the team struggled to play .500. With downgraded defensive personnel, I’ll go out on a limb and say they WON’T be pushing a turnover created per quarter for half the season.  
 

Having “just” a top 6 or so defense isn’t going to drag this team to respectability.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

3 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

So, I’ve been posting this in numerous threads for a few months. I know there are some people with me on it and some that think it’s crazy. The Pats are a bad team. They will win 6 games (and that’s with the greatest coach ever). Someone please make a case as to why they are a threat in the division? Please don’t use some lame reason like, “because they are king’s until they are not” or “because they are always good.” Give FOOTBALL reasoning as to why they are good!!
 

My reasoning as to why they are bad is that they have no talent on offense. Their OL is pretty good but lost their legendary coach. They have, at best, a massive question mark at QB. At worst, they have the worst QB situation in the league. The Pats likely have the worst set of skill players in the NFL as well. Some people are saying that they are going to run the ball and play defense. Their backs aren’t good and they will be forced to run against loaded boxes because no one fears their passing game. How does this team generate offense?!? Please, someone, tell me...

 

The secondary is really good. The pass rush isn’t. They lost Collins and Van Noy this offseason as well as Danny Shelton. That’s 3 starters in their front 7. That defense is no longer elite (although it could still be a top 10ish unit). 
 

Add that to, statistically, the hardest schedule in the NFL and explain to me what I’m missing? Again, no “because they always are” responses. This team has different players and coaches. I’m asking why THIS team is still a threat?  https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/NE
 

I’m hoping that this thread inspires some thoughtful conversation. I suspect that the trauma of 20 years of being the nail has people living in fear for no reason. They will hide behind “because Belichick” because that’s the ONLY thing to stand behind. I’m not sure how many games, against that schedule, a great coach is good for? I think that they win 6 because of Belichick. That’s a 4 win team otherwise IMO. I’d love to hear a real football argument those as to why they can win? 

 

Teams scored 14 or fewer points against them 11 times.  They scored 6 D/ST TDs last year, and that likely won't carry over YoY.  However they ranked #1 in yards and points allowed, so they weren't just some turnover dependent team. They lost collins and van noy - but a lot of me thinks their sack #'s are inflated by the scheme in a way.  They lost flowers last year and actually improved on defense.  I think Dugger is going to be a solid add for them as well.

 

On O - At WR they have Harry (who everyone here liked but has i guess been labeled a bust after 1 year), edelman (best slot receiver in NFL), marqise lee (injury prone, but solid), and sanu (solid #2 who was a midseason pickup and gets a full offseason there).  Their oline is really solid across and they have 2 new TE's that will help as blockers and pass catchers.  4 deep with running backs who do different things.  They're going to need some decent play from QB - but lets not act like their offense was good last year with Brady and injuries at WR, LT, C etc.

 

They played the same easy divisional schedule we did last year, and won more games (as well as beating buffalo twice).  If they split with buffalo in 2020, they probably still clean up nyj and miami.  Theres 5... home games against the rams (gutted roster) and chargers (tyrod or rookie - bad either way), away games against denver (2nd year QB) oakland (gruden) and arizona (2nd year QB). There's 10 wins.    

[Jauronimo]

16 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Matt cassel took the chiefs to the playoffs with 27 td and just 7int  2 years after that as well. He was a capable qb at that point in his career. People always seem to think bellicheck was working with a bottom of the barrel qb when cassel came in. That’s simply not the case. 

He had not started a game since high school.  Its amazing they even found Cassel.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

I'm simply looking at the roster and it's not a good roster.

[Stank_Nasty]

4 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

He had not started a game since high school.  Its amazing they even found Cassel.

The point is it’s not the only team he led to a winning record. He wasn’t some bum at that point. 

8 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

Teams scored 14 or fewer points against them 11 times.  They scored 6 D/ST TDs last year, and that likely won't carry over YoY.  However they ranked #1 in yards and points allowed, so they weren't just some turnover dependent team. They lost collins and van noy - but a lot of me thinks their sack #'s are inflated by the scheme in a way.  They lost flowers last year and actually improved on defense.  I think Dugger is going to be a solid add for them as well.

 

On O - At WR they have Harry (who everyone here liked but has i guess been labeled a bust after 1 year), edelman (best slot receiver in NFL), marqise lee (injury prone, but solid), and sanu (solid #2 who was a midseason pickup and gets a full offseason there).  Their oline is really solid across and they have 2 new TE's that will help as blockers and pass catchers.  4 deep with running backs who do different things.  They're going to need some decent play from QB - but lets not act like their offense was good last year with Brady and injuries at WR, LT, C etc.

 

They played the same easy divisional schedule we did last year, and won more games (as well as beating buffalo twice).  If they split with buffalo in 2020, they probably still clean up nyj and miami.  Theres 5... home games against the rams (gutted roster) and chargers (tyrod or rookie - bad either way), away games against denver (2nd year QB) oakland (gruden) and arizona (2nd year QB). There's 10 wins.    

You just gave the skill players on their offense more credit than anyone in the last calendar year has. They simply aren’t that good. 
 

And the ease with which you gave them 10 wins is almost comical. Just assuming a sweep of the jets and fins is silly. They couldn’t even do that last season. 
 

 

[Jauronimo]

6 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

The point is it’s not the only team he led to a winning record. He wasn’t some bum at that point. 

When Brady went down he WAS some bum who hadn't started a game since high school.  When Brady went down Cassel, who was in his 4th year in teh league, had 39 NFL career passing attempts, shattering his college record of 33 pass attempts in his illustrious USC career.  

 

After leaving New England he went on to a 26-40 career record.  He had one winning season in KC.  After 2.5 seasons as KC's starter he was benched for Brady Quinn and then released.  

 

Matt Cassel is, was, and still is a bum.  

Edited May 6, 2020 by Jauronimo

[djp14150]

Who will be there Wub?

 

thry still have a good defense and can run the ball.

 

injuries also matter and when you play teams.

 

i see them somewhere in that 7-9 8-8 9-7 range.  It could go up or down 1-2 games based on how games end such as win or Lose games in the last 30 seconds.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, aristocrat said:

their wr corps is not great. edelman is another year older, harry had an awful year, lee could be good.  they are gonna run that ball a lot i think. 

 

Lee won't be good. He sucks. I think Harry "could be good" but that is the category he is in going into year 2.... the "well maybe he is good?" category. I also think the other kid who was an UDFA last year is a decent little player. Myers is it? He isn't a #1 or anything but if they could say get Harry to break out as a #1 and still get a year from Edelman I think he could be a serviceable #3 option.

 

It is just a lot of projection though. Their QB and pass catchers are a combined 32nd of 32 to me. They have a line and they have some backs.... but beyond that the offense is a huge question mark.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

5 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

The point is it’s not the only team he led to a winning record. He wasn’t some bum at that point. 

You just gave the skill players on their offense more credit than anyone in the last calendar year has. They simply aren’t that good. 
 

And the ease with which you gave them 10 wins is almost comical. Just assuming a sweep of the jets and fins is silly. They couldn’t even do that last season. 
 

 

 

Edelman is better than our #2 and 3 WRs and Harry was a rookie who was banged up all year.  They tried to invest in other WRs (gordon, brown) and it bit them all year long, who really thought Sanu was going to come in in October and immediately contribute.  

 

Their defense was better than buffalos in pretty much every category, however so was their offense even with all of the problems.  2 misses at #1 WR as well as injuries to 1st round pick, all-pro TE retired, LT missing time getting fill ins from Marshall newhouse, Center Andrews missed the entire year. 

[Jauronimo]

Unless Stidham dazzles from the start, it could get ugly in New England.  Belichick's schtick is tolerable when you're a perennial super bowl contender but when you're a 5 win team I think players will find the Patriot Way to be exhausting.  Good luck attracting free agents without a QB and a hard ass coach.  With their spoiled media and fair weather fan base I could see the wheels falling off by week 4.  These are fans that booed the Pats at home for starting 2-2.

[TroutDog]

1 hour ago, section122 said:

@Kirby Jackson I won't argue that.  In fact I will take the complete opposite side of the fence.  I am expecting the Pats* to be in the top 10 drafting next year and getting one of Fields, Lawrence (don't think they will be bad enough), Trey Lance, or a different top qb prospect.  5-11 drafted 5th overall and 6-10 got the 9th pick.  Next year they will have a ton of cap room as well as a ton of open roster spots.

 

Even though Brady had a down year he was still Brady.  The second Pats/Bills game showed that he still had something left in the tank.  His quick release and decision making covers a lot of o-line issues.  Scar retiring is another huge loss.  They took a huge step back a couple of years ago when he left and I expect the same.  The offense already wasn't top notch and lost 2 very important pieces.

 

The defensive losses have not been discussed enough.  VanNoy and Collins may struggle elsewhere but they were great pieces for the defense.  

 

Special Teams also took a hit losing their coordinator and Nate Ebner to the Giants.  Gost wasn't his normal and injured self but still losing one of the most reliable kickers in the league and replacing him with a rookie is a question mark at the least.

 

On viewing it looks like all 3 phases of the ball have gotten worse.  I can see 6-10 happening and I only go that high because of how great BB is as a coach.  The East has the dreaded west/west combo leading to a lot of cross country travel, and the 1st place schedule to contend with.  For the first time in a long time I don't see a guaranteed win on their schedule.  Each team they play next year has at least an argument in their favor.

This is an interesting take. Most here have said BB won’t tank and one could consider that not tanking and yet lead them to their next QB. BB may have his sites set on besting Shula’s total win record. 

[LABILLBACKER]

45 minutes ago, WorstTEever81 said:

I am thinking, that without Brady in a Patriots logo, they will stop getting the superstar ref calls. Even when Brady was hurt, they were still his team and considered top quality, so they got the benefit of the doubt calls. kinda like the Jordan Bulls... calls magically went their way in key situations, but when Jordan leaves, all the calls tend to start to even out. I think the same will happen. The sub conscious of the refs will know that Brady isn't the QB, so maybe that actually was an illegal pick or push off. Maybe the horse collar grab block by their RT is illegal, and not just a bang bang play protecting the greatest ever born. I really think we may see a swing in favorable Pats calls from here on out... which I hope relates to a couple extra 'L's for that Cheatriots.

I completely agree. With Brady gone the ref love will be shut off. They will have to fight for every yard and call like everyone else. People will not be turning in to just watch Belichick and a bunch of low scoring games. Advertising "eyes" will go elsewhere. I don't know if Belichick's enormous ego will allow him to tank for Lawrence, but their current roster will struggle to reach 8 wins. No more calls for you Billy boy.

Edited May 6, 2020 by LABILLBACKER