Convince me that the 2020 Pats are good...

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Until we see what the QB and offense look like post Brady they are anywhere from 4-12 and 12-4 

 

their offense was pretty ugly with Brissett as I recall during Brady suspension. 

[HappyDays]

33 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Statistically they were the best defense in the league last year at 14+ ppg allowed and used much of their 2020 Draft capital on defense

 

Their draft picks are not going to make up for the loss of Shelton, Van Noy, and Collins. Their defense will be worse. As it is it was trending downwards at the end of last year.

 

The only chance the Patriots have to be good is if Stidham is way better than people think.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

For 20 years people have said the same thing about BB's defenses. He has traded away and cut guys once they get too expensive or show decline. That is his genius.  He wanted to do the same thing with Brady and keep Garapalo but Kraft said no. The defense will still be very tough. If who ever is playing QB keeps the INT total less than 12 they will win no less than 8 games.  Keep the turnovers down and his defense will keep them in a lot of games. 

I still think they find a way to add Newton at QB. If they do then the division title will be up for grabs until Bills and Patriots play in December. 

[Einstein's Dog]

I think the Pats are in for a big decline.  BB can only do so much.  The Bills weren't too far behind last year and the Bills got a lot better (Diggs) and the Pats look to be a lot worse (Brady).

 

I think people downplay the loss of T Brady.  Sure he didn't put up the stats as before but his understanding of the  offense made that oline so  much better.  And his delivery of the offensive philosophy made the coaching easier.  Personally I think TB will put up huge numbers in Tampa.  A big reason he chose to go there IMO is the offensive potential.  I will be targeting TB in FF.

[Real McClappy]

40 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

They went 11-5 with a 16-0 roster. Think about that for a second. 

 

14 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

They were also were undefeated the year before Cassel played. I’d argue that team had WAY more talent than this team.

On Offense I agree 100% and why I think they land .500. However, you can easily argue that this current D and ST core is better than the 2007-2008 core no?

[Billl]

There are going to be a lot of shocked fans around here soon.

 

Let’s look at the backup QBs BB has had in New England:

Tom Brady:  9 Super Bowls, 6 rings

Matt Cassel:  11-5 in NE and made the playoffs and a pro bowl in Kansas City

Jacoby Brissett:  Started for the Colts

Jimmy G:  Started in the Super Bowl

 

I think it’s safe to say that BB understands how to find and groom backup QBs.  There have never been more starting QBs available as this season between Rivers, Brady, Newton, Dalton, Winston, Bridgewater, etc.  If BB didn’t think Stidham was the guy, he had plenty of options.  I haven’t seen any indication that he’s interested.  If that changes, there are still solid options available.

 

They had a bad offense, a great defense, and great special teams last year.  No reason to think they can’t pull off something similar this year.  I don’t know if they’re going to compete for the bye, but they’re still going to be smart, disciplined, and well coached in all facets.  That’s enough to be a good team.  I’ve watched a ridiculous amount of condensed replays on Gamepass this offseason, and I’m amazed at how undisciplined and unprepared many teams are.  A tremendous amount of games are decided because a team beats itself.  That team is never coached by BB.

 

They look like a 6-10 team to me on paper, but I know better.  So does Vegas.

[Shaw66]

Kirby -

 

I don't know how good the Pats will be.   I don't pay attention to any team other than the Bills.   However, I'll say the same thing I've been saying for years:

 

The NFL game is about coaching and organization much more than it is about players.   There is no salary cap on coaches, and there is a salary cap on players.   The result is that the best coaches go where they want, but all teams have relatively similar levels of on-field talent.   

 

In that environment, having the guy who is unquestionably the greatest coach in the history of the game is a huge advantage.  Belichick and his team of coaches win two or three or four games that just about all other coaches lose.   So if his player talent is good enough to go 6-10, his team is going to win 8 or 10 games.   

 

As a consequence, I'm not declaring the Patriots dead until I see the stake through their heart.   And I hope the Bills put it there.  

[Kirby Jackson]

12 minutes ago, Real McNasty said:

 

On Offense I agree 100% and why I think they land .500. However, you can easily argue that this current D and ST core is better than the 2007-2008 core no?

The point being they were 5 games worse when Brady was out. Everyone looks at 11-5 with Cassel as a success. Was that a success coming off of a 16-0 season? If Allen went out and the Bills were 5 games worse would we be raving about 5-11?

[Negan]

Pats are a cooked goose now, defense got weaker.

 

They lost arguably the greatest o-line coach ever in Dante Scarneccia or however you spell it.

 

No more ref love either with Brady heading down south.

 

6-10 team

Edited May 6, 2020 by Negan

[frogger]

I think they’re an 6 win team at best, Bill will get them prepared and he’ll coach them to a few wins (any given Sunday scenario) Defensively they’ll still be good, but I just can’t see them Scoring more than 12 points a game.  

[Jauronimo]

1 hour ago, BfloBillsFan said:

I have also shared the thought that Brady is a systems QB.  He's great at reading the defense at the line of scrimmage and making those quick throws.  He's very unlikely to improvise and make the throws that Brees, Rogers, Mahomes, etc can make.  

 

 

The reasons the Pats may be good this year:

 

1. Bellichek's coaching, arguably the greatest of all time

2. Their defense keeping them in games (directly related to my #1).

 

 

I would add best special teams in the league to that list.

[hondo in seattle]

I'm a bit of a news junkie and back in January, I started ignoring what the Chinese government and media reporters were saying in Wuhan.  Instead I started paying attention to the actual science and what the epidemiologists were saying about the reproduction and mortality rates of the novel coronavirus.  I told my wife and some friends, "This coronavirus thing is going to go pandemic.  It's coming to America and thousands will die.  It's gonna be bad."   A few believed me.  Most were kind of like, "I've never seen a new disease sweep across America like that and I'm not going to believe it's going to happen now until it does."   

 

I'm not right about a lot of things but I was right about Covid 19 because the data was telling us a compelling - if unexpected - story if we simply chose to pay attention and educate ourselves.   Kirby is doing more-or-less he same thing with the Pats.  He's ignoring the media pundits and doing his own expert analysis.  In contrast, most football fans are saying - despite the data: "I'll believe it when I see it."  

 

And in this case, I find myself in the I'll-believe-it-when-I-see-it crowd.  So much for intellectual consistency!!!

 

Bill and the Pats haven't won less than 10 games since 2002.  They haven't had a losing season since Bill's first season in Foxboro in 2000.  So it's difficult to imagine the Pats suffering a losing season in 2020.  Sadly, three things in life seem to be certain: death, taxes, and the Pats finishing ahead of the Bills in the AFCE.    The world  turns, the sun rises, the Pats beat the Bills.  That's just how the universe works.  

 

So that's why I don't believe the Pats will fall this year.  Granted, it's not an intellectually satisfying argument so let me offer this instead.  Belichick is an extraordinary coach.  The Pats special teams were very good last year - 3rd in the NFL according to Gosselin.  The Pats D was downright dominant.   Brady, on the other hand was far from dominant - just 18th in passer rating, 17th in QBR, and 27th in yards/attempt.   The Pats won 12 games last year despite Brady's lackluster statistical showing.  

 

As impressive as Brady's career has been, he's been just one ingredient in Belichick's recipe for success.  With that one ingredient out of many missing, Bill will find a - albeit inferior - substitute to make the recipe work.  If Belichick can win with Cassel, he will win with Stiddy.  

 

 

 

 

Edited May 6, 2020 by hondo in seattle

[Kirby Jackson]

41 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

For 20 years people have said the same thing about BB's defenses. He has traded away and cut guys once they get too expensive or show decline. That is his genius.  He wanted to do the same thing with Brady and keep Garapalo but Kraft said no. The defense will still be very tough. If who ever is playing QB keeps the INT total less than 12 they will win no less than 8 games.  Keep the turnovers down and his defense will keep them in a lot of games. 

I still think they find a way to add Newton at QB. If they do then the division title will be up for grabs until Bills and Patriots play in December. 

If they add Cam and he is healthy I will think differently of them.

[MJS]

44 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Their draft picks are not going to make up for the loss of Shelton, Van Noy, and Collins. Their defense will be worse. As it is it was trending downwards at the end of last year.

 

The only chance the Patriots have to be good is if Stidham is way better than people think.

Yeah, those were three good players they lost. Everyone seems to think that their defense will be just as good. I don't see it. Bill Belichick always fields a good defense and I expect him to again, but they cantt be as good as last year.

 

And man, if they weren't the Patriots everyone would be saying the Pats have the worst offense in the league. They have nobody but an old, beat up Edelman and a couple of dime a dozen running backs.

[First Round Bust]

umh...Pats have a playoff caliber defense and coaching staff, the O will get better as the season progresses andi f the young qb does not progress he will be replaced.

They had the usual strong draft in rounds 2 and 3 so the replacements are in place.

The new and improved Bills under McBean Bills are 0-6 against the Pats, so until we beat them the Pats get the benefit of the doubt as in maybe not the div winner but a wildcard ?

 

I am sure BB is motivated to proof that he can win and coach successfully without TB12

[boater]

2 hours ago, youngjebrey said:

Brady craps himself in Tampa with gronk, evans, and Godwin

I think there is a good chance Brady bombs in Tampa. But it won't be him failing outside Belichicks system, it  will be due to the fact he's 42 years old.

 

We some physical decline last year, it only gets worse.

 

As to the OP: I won't convince you the Pats are good. I could convince you the Pats are average--and average teams can be dangerous.

[Warren Zevon]

Great defense - ***** QB. I predict a year like the Manuel/Orton led Bills team.

[ngbills]

47 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The point being they were 5 games worse when Brady was out. Everyone looks at 11-5 with Cassel as a success. Was that a success coming off of a 16-0 season? If Allen went out and the Bills were 5 games worse would we be raving about 5-11?

They were then 10-6 the next year. 1 game worse with Brady than Cassel.

 

But it does not work that way. Can only look at the facts and not speculate what they would have done if.... They played without Brady and still went 11-5. In 2016 they went 3-1 without Brady. Until proven otherwise they have still won without Brady. 

[Kirby Jackson]

9 minutes ago, ngbills said:

They were then 10-6 the next year. 1 game worse with Brady than Cassel.

 

But it does not work that way. Can only look at the facts and not speculate what they would have done if.... They played without Brady and still went 11-5. In 2016 they went 3-1 without Brady. Until proven otherwise they have still won without Brady. 

Fair enough but they did lose Richard Seymour, Mike Vrabel, Teddy Bruschi, Rodney Harrison and Junior Seau before the start of 2009. In a lot of ways that is feeding into my point. When they were really talented they won. This 2020 team IS NOT very talented.

Edited May 6, 2020 by Kirby Jackson

[ALLEN1QB]

They suck