Convince me that the 2020 Pats are good...

[Kirby Jackson]

So, I’ve been posting this in numerous threads for a few months. I know there are some people with me on it and some that think it’s crazy. The Pats are a bad team. They will win 6 games (and that’s with the greatest coach ever). Someone please make a case as to why they are a threat in the division? Please don’t use some lame reason like, “because they are king’s until they are not” or “because they are always good.” Give FOOTBALL reasoning as to why they are good!!
 

My reasoning as to why they are bad is that they have no talent on offense. Their OL is pretty good but lost their legendary coach. They have, at best, a massive question mark at QB. At worst, they have the worst QB situation in the league. The Pats likely have the worst set of skill players in the NFL as well. Some people are saying that they are going to run the ball and play defense. Their backs aren’t good and they will be forced to run against loaded boxes because no one fears their passing game. How does this team generate offense?!? Please, someone, tell me...

 

The secondary is really good. The pass rush isn’t. They lost Collins and Van Noy this offseason as well as Danny Shelton. That’s 3 starters in their front 7. That defense is no longer elite (although it could still be a top 10ish unit). 
 

Add that to, statistically, the hardest schedule in the NFL and explain to me what I’m missing? Again, no “because they always are” responses. This team has different players and coaches. I’m asking why THIS team is still a threat?  https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/NE
 

I’m hoping that this thread inspires some thoughtful conversation. I suspect that the trauma of 20 years of being the nail has people living in fear for no reason. They will hide behind “because Belichick” because that’s the ONLY thing to stand behind. I’m not sure how many games, against that schedule, a great coach is good for? I think that they win 6 because of Belichick. That’s a 4 win team otherwise IMO. I’d love to hear a real football argument those as to why they can win? 

Edited May 6, 2020 by Kirby Jackson

[DFT]

Don’t you tell me how to spend my pandemic!

[Hardhatharry]

No

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

Convince me that the 2020 Pats are good...

 

At football?  Or bending the rules?

[youngjebrey]

I have said since day one that Tom Brady is a system QB and belichick is the real reason for the patriots dynasty. If stidham goes out there this season and lights it up, while Brady craps himself in Tampa with gronk, evans, and Godwin you will never hear the end of it from me calling out SysTom. 

[thebandit27]

I think that they’ll continue to have an excellent defense, and their OL can run block well. They need some young WRs to step up in a major way for whoever starts at QB.

 

That’s my best sell job.

[YoloinOhio]

I’m old enough to remember Jarrett stidham blowing a 20 point lead to Danny ***** etling in college 

 

that reminds me belichick drafted that dude too lol

Edited May 6, 2020 by YoloinOhio

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, youngjebrey said:

I have said since day one that Tom Brady is a system QB and belichick is the real reason for the patriots dynasty. If stidham goes out there this season and lights it up, while Brady craps himself in Tampa with gronk, evans, and Godwin you will never hear the end of it from me calling out SysTom. 

I don’t necessarily agree but thank you for having a reasonable explanation. 

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

I think that they’ll continue to have an excellent defense, and their OL can run block well. They need some young WRs to step up in a major way for whoever starts at QB.

 

That’s my best sell job.

Fair enough....still think the odds of ALL of that happening is unlikely

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

I think that they’ll continue to have an excellent defense, and their OL can run block well. They need some young WRs to step up in a major way for whoever starts at QB.

 

That’s my best sell job.

 

Yea that is their best case scenario. Maybe Sony Michel properly breaks out and they can run it down people's throats. Maybe the two young guys (who I do like) Uche and Jennings can be impactful on the edge as rooks and their secondary as a result continues to hold things down. But I just don't see how they move the ball in the air, like at all. If they had AB still for example, then I could see you can run it well, screen and swing pass well, and then use play action to take shots and make plays down the field with AB and you could see them maybe getting to 20 fairly often. But without at least one proper threat at wideout or tight end I don't see how they manage it.

 

Best case scenario 7-9. worst case 4-12.

[BuffaloRebound]

Because other than Brady, they’ve constantly churned the roster and still always win.  Brady wasn’t good last year.  If Stidham doesn’t turn the ball over, he won’t be much worse than Brady and even has a chance to be an upgrade if he surprises people.  They are cheating a-holes, but are still a championship organization.  

[Just Joshin']

I can't make the argument that they will be good.  Your points are correct.  I think their win range is 5 - 8.

 

Two other points:

1.  I also believe their draft is over rated for 2020 - it will take time for those guys to develop if they do at all. 

2.  Brady covered for lesser talent on the OL and WR areas.  So there is a double hit with less talent and less mitigation.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

Let me say this... if they win 9 games with this roster and Stidham then any suggestion it was more Brady than Bill needs to die and die fast. Would be a bit like I was always on the "Mike Tomlin is not a great coach" train.... but to go 8-8 with what he had last season? Yea. That an achievement. That took properly good coaching.

[Stank_Nasty]

Saying they are the to beat until proven otherwise is just a lazy football take. Doesn’t take any sort of thought. 

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Because other than Brady, they’ve constantly churned the roster and still always win.  Brady wasn’t good last year.  If Stidham doesn’t turn the ball over, he won’t be much worse than Brady and even has a chance to be an upgrade if he surprises people.  They are cheating a-holes, but are still a championship organization.  

 

Brady wasn't as good as usual last year but he is still the smartest QB in the league with 20 years of NFL experience. Even if Stidham is better than expected he's not going to replace that. And one of the reasons Brady had trouble is their offensive supporting cast wasn't any good. They didn't upgrade that at all this offseason.

 

With Brady they were a championship organization. Now he's gone. Looking at their schedule I can't find more than 6 wins.

[RiotAct]

[BeastMaster]

I won't say they will be good, but I think they could be 8-8 or possibly 9-7.

 

The defense will carry the load while the offense will try to grind out points. New England has done a fantastic job utilizing their backs in the pass game and that is very helpful to a young QB. I can see them playing small ball and letting the defense hold up...alot like this Bills team of the past few seasons. 

 

Also, you cannot discount McDaniels and Belicheck being able to outcoach their opponents. McDermott has never been able to match wits with Billy.

 

I think it's foolish to make a definitive statement for either side, but to say they won't be a good team is something I'm not ready to write off.

[RiotAct]

1 minute ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Saying they are the to beat until proven otherwise is just a lazy football take. Doesn’t take any sort of thought. 

to be fair, neither does “they lost Brady and a couple other guys, so they’ll obviously suck”.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, BeastMaster said:

Also, you cannot discount McDaniels and Belicheck being able to outcoach their opponents. McDermott has never been able to match wits with Billy.

 

 

The interesting thing is generally his defences have played well vs Belichick both here and in Carolina. But our offenses have never managed to keep up our end of the bargain. I do think those are two games where Daboll is legitimately a problem for us because he is essentially running the Pats offense back against them. Bill is too good to be outsmarted by that. It is the exact same when Bill O'Brien tries it for the most part. I know Houston finally beat them last year but that was as much about Watson magic as it was about scheme.

[TroutDog]

Kirby, what still makes me think they may have a chance is who else they’ll pick up between here and the season. BB always seems to find some older guys who still have a year left to plug holes and I suspect this season will be no different. 
 

As you have stated in so many places, their current roster is poor but I doubt this is all they’ll carry into the season. Grab a FA QB and a decent mid-level receiver or two (particularly slot) and they could feasibly be close to what they were last year...which was a decent team. 
 

I would not at all be surprised to see some of our guys that are cut winding up there. 
 

EDIT: I believe their cap situation is poor and not sure how that will impact my argument. 

Edited May 6, 2020 by TroutDog

[Kirby Jackson]

8 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Because other than Brady, they’ve constantly churned the roster and still always win.  Brady wasn’t good last year.  If Stidham doesn’t turn the ball over, he won’t be much worse than Brady and even has a chance to be an upgrade if he surprises people.  They are cheating a-holes, but are still a championship organization.  

In a down year Brady completed 61% of his passes, threw for 4,057 yards with 24 TDs and 8 INTs. If Stidham duplicates those numbers, with that lack of talent, they’ll throw a parade. I think that he will be closer to Trubisky (about 3,300 yards, 18 TDs, 11 INTs).