GMFB -- Bills Love. 👀 ​💪 - 2021 season — Is cantaloupe the offensive lineman of the fruit salad?

[Homey D. Clown]

The Bills definitely have an opportunity to dethrone the cheatriots, but until they do, the cheatriots are still the favorite, period. 

 

I am very happy we have enough talent for the box heads to be picking us, that's fun, but there's nothing that can punch you in the gut faster than over confidence.  The Cheaters are still the team to beat until we beat them soundly twice in a season.

 

Bills :: 10 - 6 again, with several of those "if we only", or if "Josh had only", or if "Singletary hadn't fumbled/been out of the game on that play" events that keep them from a nice, respectable 12-4 campaign.

[Kirby Jackson]

8 hours ago, MJS said:

I think it will be Bills, Pats, Jets, and Dolphins last. Pats and Jets are interchangeable. I think both will be around .500. I believe the Dolphins are the light version of last year's Browns. Everyone enamored with them but they will disappoint. They'll have about the same record as last year (which actually means they are better considering the tougher schedule).

 

I remember last year people were saying the schedule was brutal. You're right. But those were the sheep. And those sheep will say it every year. I remember many fans didn't think it was a tough schedule.

 

This schedule looks tougher, but you're right, nobody knows how it will turn out. I'll say one thing, the QB situation in the AFC is lacking. To me that says the conference is wide open. No reason to believe that the Bills can't be right in it.

Last year, the Bills played, statistically the 24th hardest schedule in the NFL entering the year. Their opponents had a combined .480 winning percentage in 2018. This ended up even easier in that Big Ben missed 2019. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sportingnews.com/us/amp/nfl/news/toughest-nfl-schedule-2019-strength-of-schedule/uul8u61c5vx715vm8xynhn7ci

 

This year it is, statistically tied for the 5th hardest. The Patriots have the hardest, the Jets 2nd hardest, & Dolphins 3rd. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2020-nfl-strength-of-schedule-cowboys-ravens-and-steelers-have-it-easiest-patriots-face-roughest-ride/

 

People don’t just say random things on the schedule going into each year. There are numbers that support having an easy or hard schedule. It’s not just an opinion. Obviously, the situation can change but all schedules aren’t created equally. The Bills had an easy road last year (as did the whole AFC East) and the Bills have a hard road this year (as does the whole AFC East).

[dollars 2 donuts]

11 hours ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

Brady got out while the getting was good, imho. If ever there was a year that had his downfall in the division written all over it...

 

that’s why it bugs me, HUDs...we are always going to be 3 and whatever against him (29 losses?).  I would have loved to have seen them sweep him this year.

 

We’ll get our revenge on the Pats...but not on Brady...darn it.

[foreboding]

11 hours ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

Miami is the second best team talent wise in the division. 3rd best coach wise. I think Jets finish season last with their lack of weapons. Patriots 3rd and Miami 2nd. 
 

This is the Bills year to take first. 

No f-in way the phins beat the Pat's for 2nd. 

[Kirby Jackson]

39 minutes ago, Homey D. Clown said:

The Bills definitely have an opportunity to dethrone the cheatriots, but until they do, the cheatriots are still the favorite, period. 

 

I am very happy we have enough talent for the box heads to be picking us, that's fun, but there's nothing that can punch you in the gut faster than over confidence.  The Cheaters are still the team to beat until we beat them soundly twice in a season.

 

Bills :: 10 - 6 again, with several of those "if we only", or if "Josh had only", or if "Singletary hadn't fumbled/been out of the game on that play" events that keep them from a nice, respectable 12-4 campaign.

They’re actually not. I just bet it last week after the draft. The Bills were +130. The Patriots were +145. Unless things have changed since Thursday the Bills are the favorite.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

 

I am much more afraid of Miami than I am the Jets.  I think Flores is going to be a really good coach in this league whereas I think Gase is a joke.

 

Flores is a NE product.  He needs to prove he's good.  The stigma that Belichecian offspring are good has been proven wrong more ofter.

 

Vrable Out Belicheated him with the Time outs so good on him.  1 guy out of how many? 

 

21 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Last year, the Bills played, statistically the 24th hardest schedule in the NFL entering the year. Their opponents had a combined .480 winning percentage in 2018. This ended up even easier in that Big Ben missed 2019. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sportingnews.com/us/amp/nfl/news/toughest-nfl-schedule-2019-strength-of-schedule/uul8u61c5vx715vm8xynhn7ci

 

This year it is, statistically tied for the 5th hardest. The Patriots have the hardest, the Jets 2nd hardest, & Dolphins 3rd. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2020-nfl-strength-of-schedule-cowboys-ravens-and-steelers-have-it-easiest-patriots-face-roughest-ride/

 

People don’t just say random things on the schedule going into each year. There are numbers that support having an easy or hard schedule. It’s not just an opinion. Obviously, the situation can change but all schedules aren’t created equally. The Bills had an easy road last year (as did the whole AFC East) and the Bills have a hard road this year (as does the whole AFC East).

 

I am not arguing your valid point ...  SOS was Pats with Tom.   how much will it change w/o Tom?  

 

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

Flores is a NE product.  He needs to prove he's good.  The stigma that Belichecian offspring are good has been proven wrong more ofter.

 

Vrable Out Belicheated him with the Time outs so good on him.  1 guy out of how many? 

 

Flores still has a lot to prove but his 1st year has to be considered a massive success. That team was AWFUL and traded away 2 of their best 3 players. The other one missed most of the season with injury. The Dolphins did everything in their power to finish last and they won 5 games. They played hard, were prepared, disciplined and overachieved. They just had no players. Their coaching staff did a really nice job last year. Now that they have a lot more talent and some expectations let’s see if it continues....

[Kirby Jackson]

6 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

Flores is a NE product.  He needs to prove he's good.  The stigma that Belichecian offspring are good has been proven wrong more ofter.

 

Vrable Out Belicheated him with the Time outs so good on him.  1 guy out of how many? 

 

 

I am not arguing your valid point ...  SOS was Pats with Tom.   how much will it change w/o Tom?  

 

I think that you’re referring to the Bills here? If so, it makes the division title easier. It doesn’t have a massive impact on a shot at the only bye imo. The rest of the Bills schedule is too tough to get to the 12 or 13 wins likely to get there IMO. With that being said, playing a lot of good teams will serve the Bills well when they do make the playoffs. They should be hosting that first playoff game as well. Even if the Bills are like 9-7 (a low end estimation) I still think that’s enough to host a playoff game. They can have a worse record and be better positioned to win a title. Hope that rambling makes sense...

[IDBillzFan]

19 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

I am not arguing your valid point ...  SOS was Pats with Tom.   how much will it change w/o Tom? 

 

SOS for the coming year is simply a useless stat. I never understand how anyone uses it to measure anything other than off season boredom.

 

I would rephrase your last question, however; how much will it change with Stidham?

 

I genuinely am asking this question because I don't follow college ball and have no idea what to expect with Stidham. This board is filled with QB prognosticators who declare their confident predictions of how good/bad a quarterback will be.  I would love to hear anyone's opinion on Stidham. Until you know what the Pats* have in him, it's difficult to be completely confident that the Bills take the East again.

 

Where are you, Stidham prognosticators? What should we expect?

 

 

[MJS]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Last year, the Bills played, statistically the 24th hardest schedule in the NFL entering the year. Their opponents had a combined .480 winning percentage in 2018. This ended up even easier in that Big Ben missed 2019. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sportingnews.com/us/amp/nfl/news/toughest-nfl-schedule-2019-strength-of-schedule/uul8u61c5vx715vm8xynhn7ci

 

This year it is, statistically tied for the 5th hardest. The Patriots have the hardest, the Jets 2nd hardest, & Dolphins 3rd. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2020-nfl-strength-of-schedule-cowboys-ravens-and-steelers-have-it-easiest-patriots-face-roughest-ride/

 

People don’t just say random things on the schedule going into each year. There are numbers that support having an easy or hard schedule. It’s not just an opinion. Obviously, the situation can change but all schedules aren’t created equally. The Bills had an easy road last year (as did the whole AFC East) and the Bills have a hard road this year (as does the whole AFC East).

People absolutely do say random things about the schedule. They look at it and make snap judgements.

 

The numbers, as you say, are based on the previous year. Historical data does not always, or even often, predict the future. It is ALWAYS different from what the strength of schedule suggests.

[Kirby Jackson]

4 minutes ago, MJS said:

People absolutely do say random things about the schedule. They look at it and make snap judgements.

 

The numbers, as you say, are based on the previous year. Historical data does not always, or even often, predict the future. It is ALWAYS different from what the strength of schedule suggests.

I agree that it changes some from year to year but it’s not totally random. The AFC East was 34-30 last year. I’d bet ANYTHING that the division has a worse record this year. The AFC West and NFC West are better than the AFC North and NFC East. 
 

SOS at this point isn’t idiot proof but it’s not irrelevant either. If you look at team numbers team you’ll see a tough road for the Bills and the AFC East. They play both Super Bowl teams. They play 2 teams that appear to have taken a big step in the offseason in Denver and Arizona. The Seahawks won a playoff game. The Rams played in the Super Bowl the year before. The Steelers get Ben back. The Titans played in the AFC Championship. That’s not interchangeable with the Bengals, Redskins, and Giants. 

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Last year, the Bills played, statistically the 24th hardest schedule in the NFL entering the year. Their opponents had a combined .480 winning percentage in 2018. This ended up even easier in that Big Ben missed 2019. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sportingnews.com/us/amp/nfl/news/toughest-nfl-schedule-2019-strength-of-schedule/uul8u61c5vx715vm8xynhn7ci

 

This year it is, statistically tied for the 5th hardest. The Patriots have the hardest, the Jets 2nd hardest, & Dolphins 3rd. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2020-nfl-strength-of-schedule-cowboys-ravens-and-steelers-have-it-easiest-patriots-face-roughest-ride/

 

People don’t just say random things on the schedule going into each year. There are numbers that support having an easy or hard schedule. It’s not just an opinion. Obviously, the situation can change but all schedules aren’t created equally. The Bills had an easy road last year (as did the whole AFC East) and the Bills have a hard road this year (as does the whole AFC East).

 

Nobody knows ultimately how easy or tough it will be.  Largely depends on WHEN you face a team.  Sometimes teams struggle early in the year and then turn into juggernauts after 4 or 5 games.  Sometimes teams start out like juggernauts and fade down the stretch.  Sometimes injuries to key players are the reason, sometimes its scheme changes, sometimes is altering play selection/ play calling throughout the year and other teams ability to adapt to it.

 

So yes, it LOOKS harder than it was, but will it really be harder? Nobody knows.  

 

Maybe we should say the other teams will have a hard road because they are playing us?  Have we become good enough to force other teams to worry about us rather than the other way around? Yet to be seen but I think we are really close to that being the case.

Edited May 6, 2020 by matter2003

[MJS]

3 hours ago, JetsFan20 said:

According to Vegas it’s not clear cut as the Bills are Co-Favorties with the Pats. 

Vegas doesn't make win predictions. They make bet predictions. They are predicting better sentiment.

 

And go look. Their win totals are just as far off every year as anyone else's. But like I said, that's not what they are trying to achieve.

[clayboy54]

13 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

SOS at this point isn’t idiot proof but it’s not irrelevant either. If you look at team numbers team you’ll see a tough road for the Bills and the AFC East. They play both Super Bowl teams. They play 2 teams that appear to have taken a big step in the offseason in Denver and Arizona. The Seahawks won a playoff game. The Rams played in the Super Bowl the year before. The Steelers get Ben back. The Titans played in the AFC Championship. That’s not interchangeable with the Bengals, Redskins, and Giants. 

I always found that SOS was a loaded stat. After all, the SOS would have been much stronger last year if the Bills hadn't beaten those teams, (not to mention the Pats). If the AFCE hadn't beat those teams to begin with, the SOS would have been quite different.

[Kirby Jackson]

30 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

Nobody knows ultimately how easy or tough it will be.  Largely depends on WHEN you face a team.  Sometimes teams struggle early in the year and then turn into juggernauts after 4 or 5 games.  Sometimes teams start out like juggernauts and fade down the stretch.  Sometimes injuries to key players are the reason, sometimes its scheme changes, sometimes is altering play selection/ play calling throughout the year and other teams ability to adapt to it.

 

So yes, it LOOKS harder than it was, but will it really be harder? Nobody knows.  

 

Maybe we should say the other teams will have a hard road because they are playing us?  Have we become good enough to force other teams to worry about us rather than the other way around? Yet to be seen but I think we are really close to that being the case.

My point being it isn’t totally random. There is such a thing as harder or easier. Entering last year the Bills had games against some bad teams. As it turned out, those teams projected to be bad (Dolphins, Giants, Redskins, Jets, Broncos Bengals) were bad. Those teams finished with a combined record of 28-68 with none of them reaching 8 wins. We thought that they’d be bad and they were.

 

They had some games against teams that were supposed to be good (Cowboys, Patriots, Steelers, Browns, Ravens, Eagles). Those teams finished with a combined record of 57 - 39. The Browns were the outlier in that they were the only team projected to be good that wasn’t (6-10). I didn’t include the Titans in either group because they were projected to be average. They finished 9-7 (so as projected).
 

There is obviously some variance but it isn’t random. The Bills play a bunch of teams this year projected from average to elite. The only bad teams that they are expected to play are the teams in the division and the Raiders. We shouldn’t expect all of the teams that are supposed to be good to be bad and vice versa. There will be some people that overachieve and underachieve but most will look like they are expected to.

Edited May 6, 2020 by Kirby Jackson

[Michael1962]

I have been waiting to buy an AFC East sweatshirt/t-shirt for a long long time.

[Homey D. Clown]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

They’re actually not. I just bet it last week after the draft. The Bills were +130. The Patriots were +145. Unless things have changed since Thursday the Bills are the favorite.

I don't doubt you in the least, but i speak form a strictly qualitative viewpoint.

[yungmack]

I think some of you are underestimating the Jets. I think they are going to be the Bills main competition if Darnold stays healthy.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

What bothers me is how nervous I still feel

about this team!  When the Bills were a perennial playoff team, I never had these jitters about whether they would deliver a 12+ win season.

 

i think we can win 12 games, yet I still remain nervous about the team and fears still lurk in my head. 
 

Anyone else feel the same way? 

[billsfan89]

4 hours ago, matter2003 said:

 

I am much more afraid of Miami than I am the Jets.  I think Flores is going to be a really good coach in this league whereas I think Gase is a joke.

 

To me the jury is still out on Flores, yes he did scratch 5 wins out of a team that probably should have only won 1-3 games BUT all he did was win 5 games. Many former NE coaches don't pan out long term and I think I am going to see what Flores does in year two with more expectations and talent before I call him a good coach. What doesn't make me afraid of Miami is their QB situation. Fitz is a mediocre QB and Tua in my opinion won't last at the NFL level health wise. If Tua is a bust that's at least 2-3 seasons burnt at the QB position. 

 

Why I think the Jets are the more looming threat is that they have the QB. I think Darnold will establish himself as a top 10 QB in the league next season and long term if nurtured right could be a top 5 QB. When you have the QB the rest of the team can fall in place a lot easier. They can sack Gase and find someone that can build around Darnold long term. 

 

The bottomline is that I am not so sure Flores is a good coach and if their QB situation with Tua doesn't pan out they are in for a rough time in the next 3 seasons. Whereas if Darnold is a top 10 QB the Jets despite their coaching will be competitive.