Examining Brandon Beane’s comp pick hack

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

To say Howie Roseman is not a good GM is ridiculous. To compare him to Ryan Pace who is a bloody awful GM is even worse. I am not giving Roseman a pass.... he doesn't need a pass. He has the playoff appearances, the all pros and a Superbowl ring to prove it. 

 

 

:Lol:

 

The Eagles fans would disagree with your assessment.

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

:Lol:

 

The Eagles fans would disagree with your assessment.

 

If the Eagles fans don't like the GM who built them a Superbowl winner and a consistent contender I can't help them. Maybe they want GM Chip back. Anyone you ask in football will tell you he is in the upper echelon. I suspect if you asked Brandon Beane he'd tell you that too.

[machine gun kelly]

The MTC guys on NFLR the other day had this conversation about comp picks and Kirwan’s point is why want more comp picks and losing developed players vs. bringing in the right value guys, and extending those that work out.  As he was talking, I kept thinking the is Beane.

[fergie's ire]

I think Beane (rightly so) values guys who have actually played in the league more than he values the potential of rookies.  Which is why he would trade for Diggs.  He knows what he is doing.  But that doesn't mean he ignores potential.  To me, what was interesting about his rebuild is that he would aggressively go after 2nd tier free agents.  He would sign guys that would normally linger until after a few weeks of free agency early in the process, and perhaps overpay.  Remember the complaining from another GM about how much the Bills paid Nsekhe?  But when you pay too much for a Nsekhe, even if he doesn't work out, you haven't invested too much.  (Unlike sinking all those extra millions into a player like Darius.)  The kind of player Beane looks for are ones that have potential to be more valuable than they have been recently either because of injury (a la Murphy) or situation (a la Feliciano and Nsekhe).  By signing many of these, for not huge salaries, Beane can have some hits while still affording to cut or (better yet) trade the misses.  The trades turn into those "comp picks."   The approach seems very moneyball-ish to me.

[BarleyNY]

I like a lot of what Beane has done and I think he’s a very good GM, but I really take issue with some of the moves praised in that article as innovative or even good.  I’ll start with them praising him for getting a 5th round pick for AJ McCarron.  F that.  The Bills paid $4.1M for that fifth round pick.  No GM worth his salt does that intentionally.  And then there’s the matter of even making that trade, which left Peterman as the only QB besides Allen on the roster.  Again, F that.  There’s no part of that situation that wasn’t mishandled.

 

Beane’s handling of the OL has been good.  It was a hot mess that he got into decent shape rather quickly and for that he deserves credit.  It’s a lot better than it was.  A lot.  But it isn’t exactly a strength now though.  His strategy of bringing in a lot of capable players to fill out the line, letting them compete and then recouping some draft picks was very solid.  I liked that.  The Morse signing was needed badly.  Beane overpaid for him, but I understand why.  I’m not criticizing him for that, but I’m also not handing out extra credit for giving an above average center the biggest contract ever (at the time).  He did what he needed to do.  This season Beane seemed to focus on continuity rather than improvement where the OL is concerned.  I’d have liked to have seen an improvement at RT.  Right now I see a slightly below average OL, but one with a lot of depth especially on the interior.  Big improvement since 2018, but not quite where I’d like it to be. 
 

IMO Beane’s best move of the last year was the one he gave up picks for - Diggs.  We needed a bona fide #1 WR who could step in and be that player from day one and Beane found one.  That was not an easy task. Fantastic job.

 

Again, overall I like the job Beane is doing here.  I don’t expect him to be perfect and I think he’s a very good GM.  I just think it’s important to look at everything impartially and realistically.  

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I like a lot of what Beane has done and I think he’s a very good GM, but I really take issue with some of the moves praised in that article as innovative or even good.  I’ll start with them praising him for getting a 5th round pick for AJ McCarron.  F that.  The Bills paid $4.1M for that fifth round pick.  No GM worth his salt does that intentionally.  And then there’s the matter of even making that trade, which left Peterman as the only QB besides Allen on the roster.  Again, F that.  There’s no part of that situation that wasn’t mishandled.

 

Beane’s handling of the OL has been good.  It was a hot mess that he got into decent shape rather quickly and for that he deserves credit.  It’s a lot better than it was.  A lot.  But it isn’t exactly a strength now though.  His strategy of bringing in a lot of capable players to fill out the line, letting them compete and then recouping some draft picks was very solid.  I liked that.  The Morse signing was needed badly.  Beane overpaid for him, but I understand why.  I’m not criticizing him for that, but I’m also not handing out extra credit for giving an above average center the biggest contract ever (at the time).  He did what he needed to do.  This season Beane seemed to focus on continuity rather than improvement where the OL is concerned.  I’d have liked to have seen an improvement at RT.  Right now I see a slightly below average OL, but one with a lot of depth especially on the interior.  Big improvement since 2018, but not quite where I’d like it to be. 
 

IMO Beane’s best move of the last year was the one he gave up picks for - Diggs.  We needed a bona fide #1 WR who could step in and be that player from day one and Beane found one.  That was not an easy task. Fantastic job.

 

Again, overall I like the job Beane is doing here.  I don’t expect him to be perfect and I think he’s a very good GM.  I just think it’s important to look at everything impartially and realistically.  

 

Only bit of this I potentially take issue with is if they actually have a an open competition at right tackle I think they have upgraded. Darryl Williams would win an open competition at my mind and even if he isn't quite at his 2nd team all pro best.... 80% of that would be a noticeable upgrade on Ford as a rookie. Of course Ford could take a step as well that is fair to point out. I just think two years ago Williams was in the conversation with Bulaga and James and Wagner and Conklin as one of the better right tackles in the NFL (not quite Lane Johnson but in that next group). If he can be close to that I can't see how he isn't the starter there.

[BarleyNY]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Only bit of this I potentially take issue with is if they actually have a an open competition at right tackle I think they have upgraded. Darryl Williams would win an open competition at my mind and even if he isn't quite at his 2nd team all pro best.... 80% of that would be a noticeable upgrade on Ford as a rookie. Of course Ford could take a step as well that is fair to point out. I just think two years ago Williams was in the conversation with Bulaga and James and Wagner and Conklin as one of the better right tackles in the NFL (not quite Lane Johnson but in that next group). If he can be close to that I can't see how he isn't the starter there.

That’s fair.  He did bring in Williams to compete.  I forgot about him. 

[Mr. WEO]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The reason Beane has been a master at controlling the cap is he hasn't had to pay anyone yet. Check back in 2 years. The Bills will be up against the cap. And that will be a good thing. It will mean the guys are getting paid.  

 

To say Howie Roseman is not a good GM is ridiculous. To compare him to Ryan Pace who is a bloody awful GM is even worse. I am not giving Roseman a pass.... he doesn't need a pass. He has the playoff appearances, the all pros and a Superbowl ring to prove it. 

 

There is absolutely no justification for having Beane in the top 3 at this stage. He is a good GM and he has done a good job. But his record simply cannot stand up to scrutiny against the guys I have mentioned and your only response to that is "yea but we have cap space." 

 

Cap space. Add it to comp picks as things Bills fans are unduly obsessed by. 

 

 

Spot on for all three counts.

 

Bills fans are hungry and it finally seems there is food, or at least the smell of it, coming from the kitchen.

 

We will see if the legend of Beane is based in reality soon enough.  He may become their next Polian.  Or he may just be Chauncey Gardner....

[Saxum]

On 5/5/2020 at 4:55 PM, matter2003 said:

 

Butler's last draft was among the worst in the history of the NFL. In fact it was so bad that I will always believe that he tanked it on purpose because he knew he was gone after that year. His track record as a personnel evaluator makes it near impossible to miss that badly on that many picks.

 

Butler wanted the title but not the responsibilities including NFL meetings and such.   And Butler also hired coaches who should not even be hired in college so he had some impression he was walking on glass.

On 5/5/2020 at 4:42 PM, apuszczalowski said:

I don't think they have outlived their purpose, but I think the problem is that some organizations are milking the system for not what it was intended for. The Pats for most of their run, have been able to let go of high end players at the end of their prime and other teams were suckered into giving them big deals that helped the Pats return. They were also able to get higher end players to sign cheaper deals to get a chance to play for a championship so it swung the comp pick equation in  their favour.

 

When the rats find the holes because they know where the traps are you need new traps and need to place them in new places.

[Saxum]

On 5/5/2020 at 7:01 PM, blacklabel said:

 

Yeah but, Beane didn't do a thing I thought he should've done. And then McDermott did a thing I thought should've been done but not in the way I wanted. Therefore, these bums just can't be trusted. I am a fan and they owe this to me. I pay these guys salaries, ya know. Cause this one time I bought a plate of nachos at the game and that was like $63 bucks, man. I ain't no dummy. I know that money lines them Mean Beane pockets. The fact that the nacho cheese poured down the front of my pants and scalded my, uh, thing, is irrelevant! They still owe me exactly one nachos and to do things the way I say they should be done. Because again, I pay the salaries and my football expertise generated over years of babbling on internet forums far surpasses anything those two dumdums think they know. 

 

I do not think Beane should be blamed for a drop of nacho cheese (which would fit in an eye dropper) covering your "thing" but sue them and maybe you will be as famous as the coffee lady at McDonalds.

On 5/5/2020 at 9:20 PM, HankBulloughMellencamp said:

 

The Sabres are now at the point where many ultra loyal fans are about to revolt in record numbers after being taken for granted for too long.  And this eventuality has nothing to do with the pandemic, but now coupled with it, will only magnify the mutiny we'll soon see.

 

 

Problem is it is a lot harder to find paper bags like the old days.

[JerseyBills]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think your argument comes down to cap space. He is a master at constructing contracts and building a balanced roster is what you said. My response is, yes, but that was easy for him the past two years. When it wasn't because he was carrying dead money he did what in his own words he called "a horrible job" in 2018 of putting a credible offense on the field. I think we can only judge whether he is really a master with contracts and building balanced rosters once he is paying some star salaries. Beane has done a good job so far. But the tough bit is ahead of him. 

There's nothing easy about literally tearing down a roster and building it back up with your guys. Actually , it's extremely hard and most Gms are unable to . I agree , it will be different because he will have to pay our guys but that's because great drafting and if continues to hit on drafts and get value FA , he will have sustained success with this roster. 

Beane has done a brilliant job thus far. Came in with a clear vision and blueprint and has done a magnificent job executing

[GunnerBill]

29 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

There's nothing easy about literally tearing down a roster and building it back up with your guys. Actually , it's extremely hard and most Gms are unable to . I agree , it will be different because he will have to pay our guys but that's because great drafting and if continues to hit on drafts and get value FA , he will have sustained success with this roster. 

Beane has done a brilliant job thus far. Came in with a clear vision and blueprint and has done a magnificent job executing

 

You are right. Not easy. But easier. Climbing the mountain is hard. But staying up there is even harder in amy sport and especially when you are in a cap governed sport and paying those guys that got you there starts to bite. 

[JerseyBills]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You are right. Not easy. But easier. Climbing the mountain is hard. But staying up there is even harder in amy sport and especially when you are in a cap governed sport and paying those guys that got you there starts to bite. 

That's true   I can agree with that. 

[Alphadawg7]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think your argument comes down to cap space. He is a master at constructing contracts and building a balanced roster is what you said. My response is, yes, but that was easy for him the past two years. When it wasn't because he was carrying dead money he did what in his own words he called "a horrible job" in 2018 of putting a credible offense on the field. I think we can only judge whether he is really a master with contracts and building balanced rosters once he is paying some star salaries. Beane has done a good job so far. But the tough bit is ahead of him. 

 

No disrespect, you focused on cap space so I addressed it.  I said a lot more about Beane than cap space, but you got stuck on cap space convo.  In no particular order, these are all the things I said about Beane, but I will start with the cap point since you keep talking about it.

1. Yes, cap management has been phenomenal by Beane so far.  You talk about him not yet having to deal with paying big contracts to retain, but doesn't matter.  Everything he's done to date has been excellent, including extensions like Poyers.  There isn't a single bad contract on this roster right now.  He even restructured Star, who had a contract that was probably exceeding his on field play, although he gets more hate here than he deserves.  Since you talk about that the most, we will start there.  
2. Finding value in under the radar signings
3. Creating depth, and at the right positions
4. Drafting, he has had excellent drafts thus far, and this years looks to be another stellar one on paper, but we wont know until they hit field.  He has found quietly players up and down the draft.
5. Trading, has anyone been able to execute as much value in trades the last 3 years as Beane?  I dont think so, he has obtained a substantial amount of draft capital that was used to get premium players by trading guys no one though had any trade value what so ever. 
6. Finding the right players who blend perfectly into the team and culture

We are, in 3 short seasons, one of the deepest rosters in the entire NFL right now.  He found the right Josh...he managed to trade up 3 times in the first round of a single draft without giving up ANY future picks and landing what look to be two studs in the making in Allen and Trumiane.  I mean we went from 21 to the 7th pick without trading a future first or our other first that year...I cant remember another trade where a team moved into the top 7 from the 20's without giving up a 2nd first round pick.  

 

So, you can keep saying all I am focused on is cap management, but its not true and didnt read the substance of my previous posts.  Yes, I did write a big section on it, but that was in direct response to you focusing on the cap part of the discussion.

 

Its cool you don't think he's a top 3 GM because you want to compare guys with 15 years, 20 years, etc on the job GM resumes to only his 3.  I get it, hard to overlook a SB trophy.  But we made playoffs 2 of his 3 years, and that was with a scrub roster he inherited and had just started putting this stamp on and with a young roster with 9 new starters on the offense and a 2nd year QB still developing.  

 

But if you ISOLATE the last 3 years, he's done as good as job as any and IMO has been a top 3 GM over that span.  

 

And there is nothing you can say that will make me agree with you on the Eagles.  That team is a mess, every Eagle fan I know wants a GM change and he built that mess. Dumb luck SB win, great for him, no one can ever take that away and I would honestly be on cloud 9 if we had a dumb luck SB win behind some scrub journey man QB catching fire.  But, there is 0% chance I would hire him over Beane to build me a team...if both were available to be signed. 

[GunnerBill]

21 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No disrespect, you focused on cap space so I addressed it.  I said a lot more about Beane than cap space, but you got stuck on cap space convo.  In no particular order, these are all the things I said about Beane, but I will start with the cap point since you keep talking about it.

1. Yes, cap management has been phenomenal by Beane so far.  You talk about him not yet having to deal with paying big contracts to retain, but doesn't matter.  Everything he's done to date has been excellent, including extensions like Poyers.  There isn't a single bad contract on this roster right now.  He even restructured Star, who had a contract that was probably exceeding his on field play, although he gets more hate here than he deserves.  Since you talk about that the most, we will start there.  
2. Finding value in under the radar signings
3. Creating depth, and at the right positions
4. Drafting, he has had excellent drafts thus far, and this years looks to be another stellar one on paper, but we wont know until they hit field.  He has found quietly players up and down the draft.
5. Trading, has anyone been able to execute as much value in trades the last 3 years as Beane?  I dont think so, he has obtained a substantial amount of draft capital that was used to get premium players by trading guys no one though had any trade value what so ever. 
6. Finding the right players who blend perfectly into the team and culture

 

 

1. He has done a good job with contracts and cap management for the most part. But again, he isn't paying anyone yet. When he was faced with reduced space in 2018 because he was eating dead money he did a "horrible job" - his words, not mine on allocation of those resources on offense.

 

2. Yep. He has done a good job there.

 

3. This is directly related to point 1. He has created depth. You are supposed to have depth when you are not paying anyone at any of the premium positions. I suppose you could probably put Diggs in that category now. If you are paying nobody and have no depth you need to be fired. That doesn't make him a top 3 GM so much as it prevents him being a bottom 3 one.

 

4. Again... this for me is still to be proved. He hasn't drafted any day 1 or 2 bums in his two drafts, that is for certain. But excellent drafts produce elite players. I love Oliver and Edmunds and I am optimistic on Josh. But for those first two drafts to be "excellent" one of them, or Harrison Phillips or Devin Singletary or Cody Ford has to turn into an elite player not just a starter level player.

 

5. Yep - I give you his ability to extract maximum value on trading away guys who weren't making his roster has been mighty impressive. The trade ins of Kelvin Benjamin and Corey Coleman were less impressive but everyone makes the odd error.

 

6. He, along with McDermott has done a good job on creating a culture. No doubt.

 

Basically I don't disagree with a lot there.... what I disagree with is your conclusion that it is a resume of a top 5 or top 3 General Manager. You judge GMs by their ability to acquire elite players and build teams that win in the post season. They are the only judgments that matter. The rest is irrelevant. I am pretty optimistic we will eventually be able to talk about Beane in those terms but as yet, there is just no way. It is crazy in my mind to have him in that territory. You are still projecting what you think is going to happen next. The team is in a really good place and as long as Josh keeps progressing the Bills are poised to be good for a decent period. But the proof is in the pudding. I am not going to crown him until he deserves crowning. As yet, he is a promising, young GM. To be the best in the business you have to have the results to back that up.

[Alphadawg7]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

If the Eagles fans don't like the GM who built them a Superbowl winner and a consistent contender I can't help them. Maybe they want GM Chip back. Anyone you ask in football will tell you he is in the upper echelon. I suspect if you asked Brandon Beane he'd tell you that too.

 

That SB roster was not that good, you are over exaggerating it based on the result.  That was a mediocre team who had a career journeyman QB go on a streak of games like he sold his soul to the devil as it was so above and beyond his norm.  Truth is, if Wentz was in there, not only does he likely not out duel a 500+ yard Brady, but they likely wouldn't have even advanced to the SB as Eagles needed every inch of what Foles produced, and I dont see Wentz having that same run, especially what Foles did in the NFCC and SB games.  

 

Again, I get it...I would trade anything for a SB win too like that.  But there is 0% chance I am trusting that GM, who every Eagle fan I know wants gone, to build me a roster over Beane right now.  If you would hire him over Beane, well thats your choice and its all good.  But I think if both were available, Beane probably gets hired first IMHO.

 

 

Edited May 7, 2020 by Alphadawg7

[Alphadawg7]

15 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

1. He has done a good job with contracts and cap management for the most part. But again, he isn't paying anyone yet. When he was faced with reduced space in 2018 because he was eating dead money he did a "horrible job" - his words, not mine on allocation of those resources on offense.

 

2. Yep. He has done a good job there.

 

3. This is directly related to point 1. He has created depth. You are supposed to have depth when you are not paying anyone at any of the premium positions. I suppose you could probably put Diggs in that category now. If you are paying nobody and have no depth you need to be fired. That doesn't make him a top 3 GM so much as it prevents him being a bottom 3 one.

 

4. Again... this for me is still to be proved. He hasn't drafted any day 1 or 2 bums in his two drafts, that is for certain. But excellent drafts produce elite players. I love Oliver and Edmunds and I am optimistic on Josh. But for those first two drafts to be "excellent" one of them, or Harrison Phillips or Devin Singletary or Cody Ford has to turn into an elite player not just a starter level player.

 

5. Yep - I give you his ability to extract maximum value on trading away guys who weren't making his roster has been mighty impressive. The trade ins of Kelvin Benjamin and Corey Coleman were less impressive but everyone makes the odd error.

 

6. He, along with McDermott has done a good job on creating a culture. No doubt.

 

Basically I don't disagree with a lot there.... what I disagree with is your conclusion that it is a resume of a top 5 or top 3 General Manager. You judge GMs by their ability to acquire elite players and build teams that win in the post season. They are the only judgments that matter. The rest is irrelevant. I am pretty optimistic we will eventually be able to talk about Beane in those terms but as yet, there is just no way. It is crazy in my mind to have him in that territory. You are still projecting what you think is going to happen next. The team is in a really good place and as long as Josh keeps progressing the Bills are poised to be good for a decent period. But the proof is in the pudding. I am not going to crown him until he deserves crowning. As yet, he is a promising, young GM. To be the best in the business you have to have the results to back that up.

 

There is nothing you said here that I necessarily disagree with.  I am just grading the last 3 years among all the GM's because thats the only time he has been a GM.  And for me, what he has done with this roster is top 3 in the league in that short time.  

 

I get it, results include playoff wins, conference titles, and SB trophies.  But, he has only 3 years, and in those 3 years he has built a roster that has made the playoffs twice after missing them for 179 years straight lol.  

 

When I look for a GM, I am looking for all the things above.  At the end of the day, what separates a GM from being seen as good/solid vs elite is a single player or two, with QB being the big one.  For all of Beanes work to pay off in the trophy case, his one key selection of Josh Allen needs to officially pay off.  All the signs are there that it will, but we will not really know the answer to that question until this year when we see what Josh does in his 3rd act with a properly stocked arsenal of weapons.  Like you, I am quite optimistic on Josh taking another big step.  I fully believe Josh is our future and the franchise QB to lead us to consistent playoff success.

 

But again, the only thing I look for in a GM is can they rebuild my team and roster, and do so for long term success not some quick 2 year window like the Rams did trying to buy a SB and see that window start closing so fast due to cap issues.  And what I have seen from Beane checks every single box I am looking for in a GM.  So for me, I rank him higher for that.  I get others wont agree...and maybe my opinion on this is premature in terms of conclusive proof...but I will bet anyone that I am proven right on this topic when we revisit in another 3 years hahaha 

 

For the record:  Thoroughly enjoyed the conversation, and honestly we dont really even disagree that much on this other than I rank him higher today than you would.  Except Eagles, not a fan of that GM.  

Edited May 7, 2020 by Alphadawg7

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

That SB roster was not that good, you are over exaggerating it based on the result.  That was a mediocre team who had a career journeyman QB go on a streak of games like he sold his soul to the devil as it was so above and beyond his norm.  Truth is, if Wentz was in there, not only does he likely not out duel a 500+ yard Brady, but they likely wouldn't have even advanced to the SB as Eagles needed every inch of what Foles produced, and I dont see Wentz having that same run, especially what Foles did in the NFCC and SB games.  

 

Again, I get it...I would trade anything for a SB win too like that.  But there is 0% chance I am trusting that GM, who every Eagle fan I know wants gone, to build me a roster over Beane right now.  If you would hire him over Beane, well thats your choice and its all good.  But I think if both were available, Beane probably gets hired first IMHO.

 

 

I disagree about their Superbowl team. They had a top 3 offensive line and a top 3 defensive line and fantastic depth on both. They were able to keep the show on the road with Foles at Quarterback because they won the trenches. They were deep at running back, 3 deep at tight end and had decent linebackers and safeties. Where that roster was weaker was on the outside. Receiver and corner were weak spots. I've never been a big Alshon Jeffrey guy or a big Nelson Agholor guy and their best corner was Ronald Darby who while a good scheme fit is really a good #2 rather than a #1 corner. To me that roster proved the old adage "built front to back and in to out" more than any Superbowl Champion in recent years. That is where I think Roseman excels. It is with the unsexy guys who win up front. He isn't the greatest drafter of wide recievers (probably an understatement) and while he has done well finding role players at corner they have never had a lockdown guy until trading for Slay.

Edited May 7, 2020 by GunnerBill