Examining Brandon Beane’s comp pick hack

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

15 hours ago, matter2003 said:

 

Butler's last draft was among the worst in the history of the NFL. In fact it was so bad that I will always believe that he tanked it on purpose because he knew he was gone after that year. His track record as a personnel evaluator makes it near impossible to miss that badly on that many picks.

 

Whaley in 2016 was pretty brutal. Flowers was a miss, at least lawson turned into a player.  

14 hours ago, JoeF said:

Play in a little Jeopardy.  The answer is Robert Foster, House Money and Trent Murphy.  
 

The question is “who does GM BB turn into picks at the end of training camp this year?

 

I think Murphy either stays or gets cut - its a pretty large cap hit.  I'd also consider Williams or Long too.  

[HardyBoy]

So to me this is part of the team building continuum when you have a qb on their rookie deal. First you sign a bunch of value free agents to one year deals to build depth.

 

Then you turn some of those players into picks...basically turning cap space into draft capital in the early late rounds (5th and 6th rounds).

 

Then, you use those picks initially to move up to get players that you have a significant higher value for you because of system fit or identifying an elite skill others are missing, but drop to say the third round because moneyball.

 

Then, you stop trading up and using those picks to find high value depth (where a lot of teams are still plugging in needs for starters). You're still signing one year free agents, but that really needs to stop once you need to start signing players, but by then you have a steady stream of rookies going from year 3 to year 4, and those are basically your one year free agent deals, but now you actually get comp picks when they leave and instead of using free agents to trade for mid round capital to keep this rolling, you start trading down.

 

Don't know if I'm right (directionally I think I'm on the right track for sure though), but by the time I got done typing that out, I'm pretty sure I was describing the Pats.

Edited May 6, 2020 by HardyBoy

[Alphadawg7]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This is such an Alpha post.... and I do mean that with love and respect but it is a little overexcited.

 

Beane is the best GM the Bills have had in my fandom, McDermott is the best coach the Bills have had in my fandom and they are perfectly aligned with each other in executing a strategy (something I think barring Gailey and Nix I can't ever remember another GM-HC tandem being in my fandom). I agree that both should be extended and should be extended sooner, rather than later. I'd actually prioritise McDermott of the two but I am very happy with both and I want them here for the long haul. As for worrying about him leaving... I can't ever remember a GM leaving one team for another. Maybe it has happened but I don't recall it. I think he is here until he is fired (which I believe will be some way into the future.... but as the old saying goes there are only two types of coaches.... those that have been fired and those that are gonna get fired.... it is the same with GMs).

 

But top 3 in the league and not another GM you'd swap him for? Come on now. He has yet to produce a roster capable of winning in the postseason and he is yet to draft a Pro Bowl player, let alone an All Pro. I think there is a chance that some of the young guys he has drafted become that.... I love Ed Oliver, I like Tremaine Edmunds a lot and Josh is still improving. They could each end up as elite players in this league IMO. But I think let's hold off on crowning Brandon Beane until it happens. He is a good, young, General Manager. I like his philosophy, other than Josh Allen (where people know what my view was pre-draft) he seems to value players very similarly to me come draft time... the last two drafts at times I have even thought he had stolen my board. I am excited about where the team can go. But I am not a big belief guy. I am a bring home the bacon guy. Before Beane gets thrown in that elite GM talk is team needs to win in the post season and the guys he has acquired need to make pro bowls and be in the all pro conversation. If that happens then I am comfortable with talk about him as a top 3 GM.

 

 

1.  Name 3 GMs who are unquestionably better.  I tried and I can’t.  I can’t find a GM that i would feel is better suited for this team across the NFL.

2.  Pro Bowl?  Come on Gunner, you very well know we have had deserving players that don’t get the respect because they have been in Buffalo.  Pro Bowl is not the barometer to use in grading what he has built.  Those will come once Buffalo continues to earn respect as a winning team after being irrelevant for 20 years.  Even last year we lacked respect because the perceived ease of our schedule.  

[GunnerBill]

50 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

1.  Name 3 GMs who are unquestionably better.  I tried and I can’t.  I can’t find a GM that i would feel is better suited for this team across the NFL.

2.  Pro Bowl?  Come on Gunner, you very well know we have had deserving players that don’t get the respect because they have been in Buffalo.  Pro Bowl is not the barometer to use in grading what he has built.  Those will come once Buffalo continues to earn respect as a winning team after being irrelevant for 20 years.  Even last year we lacked respect because the perceived ease of our schedule.  

 

1. Well what about those that have won Superbowls? Kevin Colbert has built two Superbowl winning teams in Pittsburgh and in 20 years as their GM as overseen ONE losing season (his title did change but he has been in charge of personnel in Pittsburgh since Tom Donahoe was fired). Micky Loomis built a Superbowl winner and then has put together consistent playoff teams despite paying a future HoF QB top dollar. Brett Veach was the guy who staked his reputation on Pat Mahomes being great and then went all in on giving him the tools to win a Superbowl. Howie Roseman built one playoff level roster in Philly, watched that idiot Chip Kelly tear it up and then rebuilt it to win a Superbowl. John Schneider won a Superbowl in Seattle with guys he found all over the draft and as UDFAs. From the 3rd round Russell Wilson to the 5th round Richard Sherman. This is without mentioning John Lynch who I was sceptical of when he was hired but who in three seasons has turned what was previously a mess of a roster that had gone through 3 coaches in 3 years into a team that very nearly won a Superbowl, or Eric DeCosta the man who remoulded the Ravens in the image of a team to play to Lamar Jackson's strengths and helped him to an MVP season.

 

There are a few others that spring to mind as well - the likes of Dimitroff, Colbert, Snead and Elway who have built teams that have made (and in Elway's case won) Superbowls - though I don't think they are top end GMs. All of those guys have proven more at this stage than Brandon Beane. Beane for me is in the same category as Chris Ballard. He is young, he is smart, he has done a good job after walking into a messy situation but he is yet to really have that "pay off" moment or move. He is a perfect fit with McDermott (as he should be, McDermott basically hired him) and them being totally aligned and having a clear strategy is refreshing for a Bills fan. But we shouldn't be comparing them against the standard of what other guys have done here and more against what other guys have done across the NFL.

 

2. Okay forget pro-bowl then (I agree with you it Is a it of a popularity contest but even so I think the rosters are usually pretty good reflections and we have had plenty of pro bowlers in recent years). Let's talk about all pro - the gold standard. So far no player acquired by Brandon Beane has been a first or second team all pro. Our most recent 1st team all pro was in 2019 (Tre'Davious White - drafted by Sean McDermott). Prior to that the only other first or second team all pro of this regime was second team selection Micah Hyde in 2017 (acquired by Sean McDermott). In 2018 not a single Buffalo Bill got a single all pro vote. In 2019 aside from White no Bill made the first or second team. There were, however, some votes for Beane guys.... Mitch Morse got 2 votes (it is out of 50) at center, Jordan Phillips for 2 votes at defensive tackle, Tremaine Edmunds got 2 votes at linebacker and Andre Roberts got 3 votes as a returner (out of 100 because he got 1 as a kick returner and 2 as a punt returner). Until he is finding guys who are getting significant votes as consensus guys in those conversations you can't put him in the conversation with GMs who have long track records of doing that.

 

 

Again, I like Brandon Beane. I think he is a good General Manager and I am very pleased the Bills have him and in my view he will be here for a long time to come. But let's just hold our horses a little bit. I'm not one for crowning guys before they have got the credentials on paper and as a General Manager that means teams that go deep in the post-season and players that get national recognition as among the best at their positions. At the moment I have Beane somewhere between 10 and 15. That is still good for a guy who has only just overseen his 3rd draft in the job. I think he can move up that list. But I'm not going to throw him up at the top prematurely.

 

 

Edited May 6, 2020 by GunnerBill

[boater]

Beane... the best GM since John Butler (RIP)

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

1. Well what about those that have won Superbowls? Kevin Colbert has built two Superbowl winning teams in Pittsburgh and in 20 years as their GM as overseen ONE losing season (his title did change but he has been in charge of personnel in Pittsburgh since Tom Donahoe was fired). Micky Loomis built a Superbowl winner and then has put together consistent playoff teams despite paying a future HoF QB top dollar. Brett Veach was the guy who staked his reputation on Pat Mahomes being great and then went all in on giving him the tools to win a Superbowl. Howie Roseman built one playoff level roster in Philly, watched that idiot Chip Kelly tear it up and then rebuilt it to win a Superbowl. John Schneider won a Superbowl in Seattle with guys he found all over the draft and as UDFAs. From the 3rd round Russell Wilson to the 5th round Richard Sherman. This is without mentioning John Lynch who I was sceptical of when he was hired but who in three seasons has turned what was previously a mess of a roster that had gone through 3 coaches in 3 years into a team that very nearly won a Superbowl, or Eric DeCosta the man who remoulded the Ravens in the image of a team to play to Lamar Jackson's strengths and helped him to an MVP season.

 

There are a few others that spring to mind as well - the likes of Dimitroff, Colbert, Snead and Elway who have built teams that have made (and in Elway's case won) Superbowls - though I don't think they are top end GMs. All of those guys have proven more at this stage than Brandon Beane. Beane for me is in the same category as Chris Ballard. He is young, he is smart, he has done a good job after walking into a messy situation but he is yet to really have that "pay off" moment or move. He is a perfect fit with McDermott (as he should be, McDermott basically hired him) and them being totally aligned and having a clear strategy is refreshing for a Bills fan. But we shouldn't be comparing them against the standard of what other guys have done here and more against what other guys have done across the NFL.

 

2. Okay forget pro-bowl then (I agree with you it Is a it of a popularity contest but even so I think the rosters are usually pretty good reflections and we have had plenty of pro bowlers in recent years). Let's talk about all pro - the gold standard. So far no player acquired by Brandon Beane has been a first or second team all pro. Our most recent 1st team all pro was in 2019 (Tre'Davious White - drafted by Sean McDermott). Prior to that the only other first or second team all pro of this regime was second team selection Micah Hyde in 2017 (acquired by Sean McDermott). In 2018 not a single Buffalo Bill got a single all pro vote. In 2019 aside from White no Bill made the first or second team. There were, however, some votes for Beane guys.... Mitch Morse got 2 votes (it is out of 50) at center, Jordan Phillips for 2 votes at defensive tackle, Tremaine Edmunds got 2 votes at linebacker and Andre Roberts got 3 votes as a returner (out of 100 because he got 1 as a kick returner and 2 as a punt returner). Until he is finding guys who are getting significant votes as consensus guys in those conversations you can't put him in the conversation with GMs who have long track records of doing that.

 

 

Again, I like Brandon Beane. I think he is a good General Manager and I am very pleased the Bills have him and in my view he will be here for a long time to come. But let's just hold our horses a little bit. I'm not one for crowning guys before they have got the credentials on paper and as a General Manager that means teams that go deep in the post-season and players that get national recognition as among the best at their positions. At the moment I have Beane somewhere between 10 and 15. That is still good for a guy who has only just overseen his 3rd draft in the job. I think he can move up that list. But I'm not going to throw him up at the top prematurely.

 

 

 

First good convo, and enjoying the dialogue.

 

Most of the guys you mentioned best days are behind them, not whats going on in the NFL today.  I get why you say Veach because they won a Super Bowl...but also, I don't think hes as good as he is lucky.  What had he really done there outside of Mahomes?  You cant take away the SB, he earned that no doubt.  But, did he really build a great roster or did he get lucky finding a once in a lifetime QB that really carries a roster than isn't as good or deep with most other QBs leading that team.  They have also had cap issues.

 

Roseman?  No.  Not a chance I would take him over Beane.  Cant even believe he is on your list as someone better than Beane.  Eagles roster is a mess.  Catching lighting in a bottle with a scrub journeyman backup QB having the 3 most improbable games in a row in history doesn't make you a great GM.  

 

Lynch is another guy on the rise, I like him.  But there is no way you can definitively put him ahead of Beane.  He also gave a BUTT LOAD of money to an unproven QB who now looks more like a mistake than a successful decision.  I mean Niners seriously considered replacing their over priced QB with a ancient Tom Brady this year.  No way Beane would ever make that mistake.  Now Lynch better hope Jimmy G isn't just the most over paid game manager ever and can actually lead them somewhere. 

 

Schneider is absolutely in the top 3, I think he is a top tier GM.  No disagreement whatsoever from me on that one.

 

DeCosta?  Sorry, majority of that roster was mostly built by Ozzie, including Lamar, and the genius behind Lamar is on Roman, not the roster decisions DeCosta made.  He has proven nothing yet, and most importantly, they haven't even proven if the system and style they are playing is sustainable.  That Ravens offense started getting figured out after the Niners and Bills games and wasn't as unstoppable after that.  There is still a lot to prove there, and he has yet to really put his stamp on that team.  

 

Loomis?  The guy whose wasted the best years of Drew Brees career?  The same team that couldn't get to .500 for many seasons and rarely made the playoffs despite Brees eclipsing 5000 yards every year?  That Loomis?  The same Saints team that keeps folding at end of games in the playoffs?  The same Loomis who couldn't build a defense to save his life for years which will always be the sole reason Brees hasn't been a multi-super bowl winner despite being one of the greatest of his generation at the most important position in football?

 

Sorry, Beane for me has built a better BALANCED OVERALL roster than almost all the GM's you mentioned. Many of them have more years than Beane and have future HOF QB's already in place, hence more opportunity for the trophy case.  Beane has gone out and maximized value better than any of these guys.  He is smarter on contracts, he is smarter with the cap, he is substantially better at trades.  He completely revamped not only our roster, but our cap in his first 3 years as a GM.  

 

I stand FIRMLY by my top 3 claim on Beane.  I get it, you and others I am sure only want to measure it by the post season right now.  But thats honestly not a very accurate or reliable way to measure the value of the GM, especially against long time GMs and one whose been a GM for 3 seasons.  I mean Dick Juaron won COY too for having one lighting in a bottle season, doesn't make him a great coach.  Eagles GM has a mess of a roster and getting one SB where a Journeyman QB had the best 3 game stretch of his career where hes mostly been a scrub doesn't suddenly make you a great GM.  

 

Here is a question for you:   If you take away the QB position on every team...would you swap our roster and cap situation with any of those teams?  Again, not factoring in the QB so you aren't getting Mahomes, Wilson, Brees, etc.  

 

I can honestly say I would not.  Our OL and DL depth is superior to any one of them, our WR group right now is probably the best of the bunch outside of KC (which I give them the edge because of Kelce even though his position is TE, he is a monster receiving weapon), our secondary is easily the best unit of the group.  Our LB group is arguably as good or better than most of those teams too.  And our cap situation is better than all of them IMO.  And we are full of YOUTH giving us a longer window moving forward as well.  

 

And basically our entire roster outside a couple players, plus our cap situation, was all built and orchestrated by Beane.  And in just 3 seasons.  

 

He is a top 3 GM right now in 2020.  At least IMHO he is.  

Edited May 6, 2020 by Alphadawg7

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

First good convo, and enjoying the dialogue.

 

Most of the guys you mentioned best days are behind them, not whats going on in the NFL today.  I get why you say Veach because they won a Super Bowl...but also, I don't think hes as good as he is lucky.  What had he really done there outside of Mahomes?  You cant take away the SB, he earned that no doubt.  But, did he really build a great roster or did he get lucky finding a once in a lifetime QB that really carries a roster than isn't as good or deep with most other QBs leading that team.  They have also had cap issues.

 

Roseman?  No.  Not a chance I would take him over Beane.  Cant even believe he is on your list as someone better than Beane.  Eagles roster is a mess.  Catching lighting in a bottle with a scrub journeyman backup QB having the 3 most improbable games in a row in history doesn't make you a great GM.  

 

Lynch is another guy on the rise, I like him.  But there is no way you can definitively put him ahead of Beane.  He also gave a BUTT LOAD of money to an unproven QB who now looks more like a mistake than a successful decision.  I mean Niners seriously considered replacing their over priced QB with a ancient Tom Brady this year.  No way Beane would ever make that mistake.  Now Lynch better hope Jimmy G isn't just the most over paid game manager ever and can actually lead them somewhere. 

 

Schneider is absolutely in the top 3, I think he is a top tier GM.  No disagreement whatsoever from me on that one.

 

DeCosta?  Sorry, majority of that roster was mostly built by Ozzie, including Lamar, and the genius behind Lamar is on Roman, not the roster decisions DeCosta made.  He has proven nothing yet, and most importantly, they haven't even proven if the system and style they are playing is sustainable.  That Ravens offense started getting figured out after the Niners and Bills games and wasn't as unstoppable after that.  There is still a lot to prove there, and he has yet to really put his stamp on that team.  

 

Loomis?  The guy whose wasted the best years of Drew Brees career?  The same team that couldn't get to .500 for many seasons and rarely made the playoffs despite Brees eclipsing 5000 yards every year?  That Loomis?  The same Saints team that keeps folding at end of games in the playoffs?  The same Loomis who couldn't build a defense to save his life for years which will always be the sole reason Brees hasn't been a multi-super bowl winner despite being one of the greatest of his generation at the most important position in football?

 

Sorry, Beane for me has built a better BALANCED OVERALL roster than almost all the GM's you mentioned. Many of them have more years than Beane and have future HOF QB's already in place, hence more opportunity for the trophy case.  Beane has gone out and maximized value better than any of these guys.  He is smarter on contracts, he is smarter with the cap, he is substantially better at trades.  He completely revamped not only our roster, but our cap in his first 3 years as a GM.  

 

I stand FIRMLY by my top 3 claim on Beane.  I get it, you and others I am sure only want to measure it by the post season right now.  But thats honestly not a very accurate or reliable way to measure the value of the GM, especially against long time GMs and one whose been a GM for 3 seasons.  I mean Dick Juaron won COY too for having one lighting in a bottle season, doesn't make him a great coach.  Eagles GM has a mess of a roster and getting one SB where a Journeyman QB had the best 3 game stretch of his career where hes mostly been a scrub doesn't suddenly make you a great GM.  

 

Here is a question for you:   If you take away the QB position on every team...would you swap our roster and cap situation with any of those teams?  Again, not factoring in the QB so you aren't getting Mahomes, Wilson, Brees, etc.  

 

I can honestly say I would not.  Our OL and DL depth is superior to any one of them, our WR group right now is probably the best of the bunch outside of KC (which I give them the edge because of Kelce even though his position is TE, he is a monster receiving weapon), our secondary is easily the best unit of the group.  Our LB group is arguably as good or better than most of those teams too.  And our cap situation is better than all of them IMO.  And we are full of YOUTH giving us a longer window moving forward as well.  

 

And basically our entire roster outside a couple players, plus our cap situation, was all built and orchestrated by Beane.  And in just 3 seasons.  

 

He is a top 3 GM right now in 2020.  At least IMHO he is.  

 

My response to this is stop worrying about the sodding cap. It is the most over worried about thing on these boards. When you are good you pay your guys and you don't have cap space. That is the NFL. People banging on about the Eagles cap situation.... they have been loading up for runs. That is what you do when you see a Superbowl window. Two years ago the 49ers had loads of cap space and a damn awful team. Now they have no cap space but a Superbowl calibre roster. That should be the aim - to be good. Not to have loads of cap room. If they Bills are good they will not have loads of cap space. The reason we have load of cap space is because Bean purged all our good "prime age" players and replaced them with young player who bought into their vision. Not a policy I am criticising at all but when those players get to prime age we will be right up against the cap. Anyone expecting the Bills to have cap space when White, Allen, Edmunds, Diggs, Dawkins and Oliver are all being paid is deluded. And it robs your middle class.... so the Milanos and the mid price guys we can pay now like Brown and Beasley and Spain.... they will be gone. That is the league. 

 

Howie Roseman built  a terrific roster in Philadelphia. Yes, the QB situation with Foles was lightening in a bottle - I agree, but they needed the rest of that roster to support it and he had built a situation capable of handling it. Is it cheap? No. Is he up against the cap now? Yes. But he has a Superbowl and then two more playoff seasons to boot. Mikey Loomis has built consistent contenders despite paying a franchise QB... and yes, they had three years of 7-9 in the middle of that but his 2017 draft class is historically good.

 

As for would I take our roster excluding Quarterback? Well first of all what is the point of excluding Quarterback? I'd have taken out 2015 roster excluding Quarterback over all but 4 or 5 in the NFL.... but this is a Quarterback league. Second of all.... the Saints are better on the offensive line than us by a million miles, I'd take their skill position guys in an instant too. The only Bills starter on offense that starts for the Saints is Stefon Diggs. At least three of their defensive starters start on our team - Lattimore, Cam Jordan and any of their three linebackers who were keeping Bills pencilled in starter AJ Klein on the bench in 2019. I'd take the Chiefs roster too..... we are closer to them on the offensive line, but their receiving weapons are better, and on defense Chris Jones, Frank Clark and the honey badger all start in the Bills. As for Baltimore..... my word that is just top to bottom the best roster in the NFL. Stacked doesn't even begin to cover it. Lamar Jackson could take a noticeable step back in 2020 and win 12 games.

 

Beane has done well. I think he is a good GM. It is just a huge reach to put him above those other guys. They have the credentials to show it. Whether you judge by team success or by individual success they are proven and Brandon Beane isn't, yet. He can get there.... but he needs to prove it. So far he has done a nice job in turning around a difficult situation. But now we have to see the pay off to put him in that category.

[Mr. WEO]

17 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

You are so right Mr. Weo.  I too tire of posters here having good things to say about Brandon Beane. The truly intelligent posters on TBD, like yourself, realize that Beane’s time as GM here has been a catastrophe on every level.

 

I wish more people followed your philosophy for posting here, “If you don’t have something bad to say about someone, then don’t say anything at all.”

 

 

 

LOL say what??

 

Thanks for inventing a take for me, but I'm good without your goofball straw man stuff.

 

I give credit where/when due.  Beane has done some strong work--far better than several predecessors.  I just don't carve his each utterance (Joe Marino's quote I cited is ridiculous) onto a sacred tablet.  His success will not be defined by  posters ooo'ing and ahhh'ing over each down-home nugget he gives the press, but by sustained playoff winning--same as every GM.

 

Some people need to believe in one thing at a time--that only one way can be true.  The true believers.  I won't take that away from you---seems like you need that kind of uniformity of thought, without nuance or a critical eye----I envy you that!

 

Cheers!

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

My response to this is stop worrying about the sodding cap. It is the most over worried about thing on these boards. When you are good you pay your guys and you don't have cap space. That is the NFL. People banging on about the Eagles cap situation.... they have been loading up for runs. That is what you do when you see a Superbowl window. Two years ago the 49ers had loads of cap space and a damn awful team. Now they have no cap space but a Superbowl calibre roster. That should be the aim - to be good. Not to have loads of cap room. If they Bills are good they will not have loads of cap space. The reason we have load of cap space is because Bean purged all our good "prime age" players and replaced them with young player who bought into their vision. Not a policy I am criticising at all but when those players get to prime age we will be right up against the cap. Anyone expecting the Bills to have cap space when White, Allen, Edmunds, Diggs, Dawkins and Oliver are all being paid is deluded. And it robs your middle class.... so the Milanos and the mid price guys we can pay now like Brown and Beasley and Spain.... they will be gone. That is the league. 

 

Howie Roseman built  a terrific roster in Philadelphia. Yes, the QB situation with Foles was lightening in a bottle - I agree, but they needed the rest of that roster to support it and he had built a situation capable of handling it. Is it cheap? No. Is he up against the cap now? Yes. But he has a Superbowl and then two more playoff seasons to boot. Mikey Loomis has built consistent contenders despite paying a franchise QB... and yes, they had three years of 7-9 in the middle of that but his 2017 draft class is historically good.

 

As for would I take our roster excluding Quarterback? Well first of all what is the point of excluding Quarterback? I'd have taken out 2015 roster excluding Quarterback over all but 4 or 5 in the NFL.... but this is a Quarterback league. Second of all.... the Saints are better on the offensive line than us by a million miles, I'd take their skill position guys in an instant too. The only Bills starter on offense that starts for the Saints is Stefon Diggs. At least three of their defensive starters start on our team - Lattimore, Cam Jordan and any of their three linebackers who were keeping Bills pencilled in starter AJ Klein on the bench in 2019. I'd take the Chiefs roster too..... we are closer to them on the offensive line, but their receiving weapons are better, and on defense Chris Jones, Frank Clark and the honey badger all start in the Bills. As for Baltimore..... my word that is just top to bottom the best roster in the NFL. Stacked doesn't even begin to cover it. Lamar Jackson could take a noticeable step back in 2020 and win 12 games.

 

Beane has done well. I think he is a good GM. It is just a huge reach to put him above those other guys. They have the credentials to show it. Whether you judge by team success or by individual success they are proven and Brandon Beane isn't, yet. He can get there.... but he needs to prove it. So far he has done a nice job in turning around a difficult situation. But now we have to see the pay off to put him in that category.

 

Again, enjoying the dialogue, sincerely.

 

I respectively disagree with almost all of this about the cap.  Nothing is a bigger killer to a team than cap management.  And cap management is MORE than just contracts. Its literally one of the single most important parts of a GM's job.  Is Jimmy G's contract good or bad cap management?  Anyone believe the Niners dont regret that contract right now?  The Rams have had god awful cap management trying to buy a Super Bowl and they are likely going to see a down turn instead of more success.  Ryan Pace went from a hot GM to a joke with terrible cap management and roster decisions.  

 

Yes you always have to pay elite players...but great GM's know who, when, and how to pay those players to complete a talented and balanced roster.  Beane has been a master at contract structure and talent discovery on the lower price tag to continue to leave us fully prepared to retain talent.  Beane has also been excellent at drafting to replenish affordable talent once we have to start paying bigger money for player retention.  I would argue, Beane has been one of the best, if not the best at this during the past 3 years.  

 

Sorry, Eagles are a mess.  Roseman built the mess.  You can give him a pass because a scrub QB had the 3 games of his life he will never repeat with some dumb luck all you want, but I won't.  We have without a doubt a better roster than Eagles, and our roster is better than the Eagles super bowl roster.  They won because a scrub journeyman somehow went into some zone where he summoned his best Kurt Warner impression in the playoffs and out dueled a 500 yard performance by the GOAT Brady.  Roseman gets his ring and they get that trophy...its real...it happened.  But like I said, Dick Jauron was COY one fluke season, did not make him a great coach.  

 

And yes, I asked about the roster MINUS the QB because the QB position is the most important, so comparing rosters to teams with Brees, Wilson, and Mahomes will distract you form the question about the whole roster.  And Allen only has 2 seasons under his belt, but coming off a 30 TD performance while also adjusting to a 9 player overhaul on offense and marginal weapons last year before Beane added the missing pieces to the offense this off season.  So Beane may have also found his gem already, its just about a season too early to know for sure.

 

And yes Saints offense is better because it includes a first ballot HOF QB leading them.  But I would take the other 10 guys we have over the 10 guys they have.  Its not like its a landslide...but I think our depth is just better, especially on the OL.  And Beane built that over 3 seasons...Loomis has been there since 2002 and already has seen Beane build, at the very least, a comparable offensive roster outside the First Ballot HOF QB.  And Allen may get there himself, hes on a very good trajectory right now.  

 

More importantly, Loomis has just utterly failed to build the right roster around Brees.  The only SB was the emotion charged Hurricane Katrina year when they actually had a defense for once.  Outside of that, the Saints have too often underperform, especially on the road, in bad weather, and in the post season.  

 

At the very least, Beane is in the top 5 conversation in comparison to what the other GMs have done the last 3 years.  And I would still argue for top 3 personally as I think there are things he does better than most GM's out there in terms of finding talent, managing contracts, and his already impressive draft record.

Edited May 7, 2020 by Alphadawg7

[JerseyBills]

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/comp-pick-buffalo-bills-brandon-beane

 

Alot of talk about comp picks and never looked at it this way but I totally agree and just another reason why Beane is just a phenomenal GM , in total control of this roster. 

 

Instead of reducing the player pool when adding talent to Buffalo’s roster, Beane has loaded up on free agents on bargain deals to create a competitive roster, often to the point of a surplus of talent at one position. 

 

Take last season for example. To fix the offensive line, Beane inked six unrestricted free agent offensive linemen, including making Mitch Morse the highest-paid center in NFL history. Veterans Spencer Long, Ty Nsekhe, Jon Feliciano, Quinton Spain and LaAdrian Waddle were also signed in addition to investing a high 2019 second-round selection on Oklahoma offensive tackle Cody Ford. Those moves were made with Dion Dawkins, Russell Bodine and Wyatt Teller already on the roster. 

 

Just before the season, Beane sent Bodine to the Patriots for a 2020 sixth-round pick and Teller to the Browns for 2020 fifth- and sixth-round picks. No, the Bills were not awarded any compensatory picks for this year's draft, but Beane created his own by building a competitive roster, having a surplus and trading away talent he was going to cut in exchange for draft capital. 

 

Just an excerpt , highly recommend reading. 

 

[Gugny]

 

[JerseyBills]

3 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

Oh wow didn't see that. 

You can delete. That thread should be bumped

[JerseyBills]

This guy was born to be a GM . He's in total control of this roster , had a clear vision and blueprint he shares with McDermott and has executed at a ridiculously high level. I mean he completely tore this roster down and in 3.5 offseasons has built a legit contender in the AFC . 

 

He's going to be here for a LONG time!

[hjnick]

No comment.  Just wanted to get in before it gets locked. ?

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Again, enjoying the dialogue, sincerely.

 

I respectively disagree with almost all of this about the cap.  Nothing is a bigger killer to a team than cap management.  And cap management is MORE than just contracts. Its literally one of the single most important parts of a GM's job.  Is Jimmy G's contract good or bad cap management?  Anyone believe the Niners dont regret that contract right now?  The Rams have had god awful cap management trying to buy a Super Bowl and they are likely going to see a down turn instead of more success.  Ryan Pace went from a hot GM to a joke with terrible cap management and roster decisions.  

 

Yes you always have to pay elite players...but great GM's know who, when, and how to pay those players to complete a talented and balanced roster.  Beane has been a master at contract structure and talent discovery on the lower price tag to continue to leave us fully prepared to retain talent.  Beane has also been excellent at drafting to replenish affordable talent once we have to start paying bigger money for player retention.  I would argue, Beane has been one of the best, if not the best at this during the past 3 years.  

 

Sorry, Eagles are a mess.  Roseman built the mess.  You can give him a pass because a scrub QB had the 3 games of his life he will never repeat with some dumb luck all you want, but I won't.  We have without a doubt a better roster than Eagles, and our roster is better than the Eagles super bowl roster.  They won because a scrub journeyman somehow went into some zone where he summoned his best Kurt Warner impression in the playoffs and out dueled a 500 yard performance by the GOAT Brady.  Roseman gets his ring and they get that trophy...its real...it happened.  But like I said, Dick Jauron was COY one fluke season, did not make him a great coach.  

 

And yes, I asked about the roster MINUS the QB because the QB position is the most important, so comparing rosters to teams with Brees, Wilson, and Mahomes will distract you form the question about the whole roster.  And Allen only has 2 seasons under his belt, but coming off a 30 TD performance while also adjusting to a 9 player overhaul on offense and marginal weapons last year before Beane added the missing pieces to the offense this off season.  So Beane may have also found his gem already, its just about a season too early to know for sure.

 

And yes Saints offense is better because it includes a first ballot HOF QB leading them.  But I would take the other 10 guys we have over the 10 guys they have.  Its not like its a landslide...but I think our depth is just better, especially on the OL.  And Beane built that over 3 seasons...Loomis has been there since 2002 and already has seen Beane build, at the very least, a comparable offensive roster outside the First Ballot HOF QB.  And Allen may get there himself, hes on a very good trajectory right now.  

 

More importantly, Loomis has just utterly failed to build the right roster around Brees.  The only SB was the emotion charged Hurricane Katrina year when they actually had a defense for once.  Outside of that, the Saints have too often underperform, especially on the road, in bad weather, and in the post season.  

 

At the very least, Beane is in the top 5 conversation in comparison to what the other GMs have done the last 3 years.  And I would still argue for top 3 personally as I think there are things he does better than most GM's out there in terms of finding talent, managing contracts, and his already impressive draft record.

 

The reason Beane has been a master at controlling the cap is he hasn't had to pay anyone yet. Check back in 2 years. The Bills will be up against the cap. And that will be a good thing. It will mean the guys are getting paid.  

 

To say Howie Roseman is not a good GM is ridiculous. To compare him to Ryan Pace who is a bloody awful GM is even worse. I am not giving Roseman a pass.... he doesn't need a pass. He has the playoff appearances, the all pros and a Superbowl ring to prove it. 

 

There is absolutely no justification for having Beane in the top 3 at this stage. He is a good GM and he has done a good job. But his record simply cannot stand up to scrutiny against the guys I have mentioned and your only response to that is "yea but we have cap space." 

 

Cap space. Add it to comp picks as things Bills fans are unduly obsessed by. 

[Alphadawg7]

22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The reason Beane has been a master at controlling the cap is he hasn't had to pay anyone yet. Check back in 2 years. The Bills will be up against the cap. And that will be a good thing. It will mean the guys are getting paid.  

 

To say Howie Roseman is not a good GM is ridiculous. To compare him to Ryan Pace who is a bloody awful GM is even worse. I am not giving Roseman a pass.... he doesn't need a pass. He has the playoff appearances, the all pros and a Superbowl ring to prove it. 

 

There is absolutely no justification for having Beane in the top 3 at this stage. He is a good GM and he has done a good job. But his record simply cannot stand up to scrutiny against the guys I have mentioned and your only response to that is "yea but we have cap space." 

 

Cap space. Add it to comp picks as things Bills fans are unduly obsessed by. 

I said a lot more than cap space ?

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I said a lot more than cap space ?

 

I think your argument comes down to cap space. He is a master at constructing contracts and building a balanced roster is what you said. My response is, yes, but that was easy for him the past two years. When it wasn't because he was carrying dead money he did what in his own words he called "a horrible job" in 2018 of putting a credible offense on the field. I think we can only judge whether he is really a master with contracts and building balanced rosters once he is paying some star salaries. Beane has done a good job so far. But the tough bit is ahead of him. 

[Thurman#1]

On 5/6/2020 at 2:22 AM, YoloinOhio said:

 

Examining Brandon Beane’s comp pick hack

 

 

 

IMO, a bad article, for two main reasons.

 

First, there's an article based on the exact same idea, with pretty much the same evidence, written by Thad Brown, called "Is Brandon Beane Cornering His Own Comp Pick Market?". Posted on March 30th, about a week ago. And the new article never mentions it.

 

https://www.rochesterfirst.com/sports/buffalo-bills/is-brandon-beane-cornering-his-own-comp-pick-market/

 

And second because unlike the first article, the new one puts down the idea of getting actual comp picks, as if it's a bad idea. Implies that Beane thinks so too. And clearly, Beane doesn't, and has said in no uncertain terms that he thinks aiming for comp picks is important and that as soon as possible, he'll be planning to get them. He knows that comp picks are smart.

 

So why hasn't he gotten any yet? Because comp picks come mostly in the mature stage of the life cycle of a team. When you're rebuilding, you need to bring in FAs to fill your most urgent holes. It's teams that have good solid veteran cores and depth that tend to accumulate comp picks. The Pats are absolute comp  pick masters, they accumulate them year after year, but if you go back to Belichick's first three or four years, not so much. Ravens, too.

 

It was too early in the life cycle of this team to pick up a lot of comp picks.

 

And while Beane's method here is really nice, very smart ... it's not a replacement for comp picks. It's an excellent way to supplement them. 

[Thurman#1]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

My response to this is stop worrying about the sodding cap. It is the most over worried about thing on these boards. When you are good you pay your guys and you don't have cap space. That is the NFL. People banging on about the Eagles cap situation.... they have been loading up for runs. That is what you do when you see a Superbowl window. Two years ago the 49ers had loads of cap space and a damn awful team. Now they have no cap space but a Superbowl calibre roster. That should be the aim - to be good. Not to have loads of cap room. If they Bills are good they will not have loads of cap space. The reason we have load of cap space is because Bean purged all our good "prime age" players and replaced them with young player who bought into their vision. Not a policy I am criticising at all but when those players get to prime age we will be right up against the cap. Anyone expecting the Bills to have cap space when White, Allen, Edmunds, Diggs, Dawkins and Oliver are all being paid is deluded. And it robs your middle class.... so the Milanos and the mid price guys we can pay now like Brown and Beasley and Spain.... they will be gone. That is the league. 

 

Howie Roseman built  a terrific roster in Philadelphia. Yes, the QB situation with Foles was lightening in a bottle - I agree, but they needed the rest of that roster to support it and he had built a situation capable of handling it. Is it cheap? No. Is he up against the cap now? Yes. But he has a Superbowl and then two more playoff seasons to boot. Mikey Loomis has built consistent contenders despite paying a franchise QB... and yes, they had three years of 7-9 in the middle of that but his 2017 draft class is historically good.

 

As for would I take our roster excluding Quarterback? Well first of all what is the point of excluding Quarterback? I'd have taken out 2015 roster excluding Quarterback over all but 4 or 5 in the NFL.... but this is a Quarterback league. Second of all.... the Saints are better on the offensive line than us by a million miles, I'd take their skill position guys in an instant too. The only Bills starter on offense that starts for the Saints is Stefon Diggs. At least three of their defensive starters start on our team - Lattimore, Cam Jordan and any of their three linebackers who were keeping Bills pencilled in starter AJ Klein on the bench in 2019. I'd take the Chiefs roster too..... we are closer to them on the offensive line, but their receiving weapons are better, and on defense Chris Jones, Frank Clark and the honey badger all start in the Bills. As for Baltimore..... my word that is just top to bottom the best roster in the NFL. Stacked doesn't even begin to cover it. Lamar Jackson could take a noticeable step back in 2020 and win 12 games.

 

Beane has done well. I think he is a good GM. It is just a huge reach to put him above those other guys. They have the credentials to show it. Whether you judge by team success or by individual success they are proven and Brandon Beane isn't, yet. He can get there.... but he needs to prove it. So far he has done a nice job in turning around a difficult situation. But now we have to see the pay off to put him in that category.

 

 

 

While I agree with you that Beane is in no way - yet - top three, you are drastically undervaluing the importance of excellent cap management. Which is most important, a good roster or good cap management? If you want your team to be not just competitive for a year or two, but competitive in the long term, consistently ... they're both necessary. An awful lot of the reason Belichick has been able to field competitive teams year after year after year is Tom Brady and his defensive game-planning, and an awful lot more is how he husbands every single cap dollar year after year after year, getting rid of expensive guys when they hold out for what value they can get elsewhere, letting good players go early so he'll never waste a cap dollar on a guy past his prime, and consistently spending less than other teams do on various position groups that other teams throw dollars at. He's got a magnifying glass on this at all times, as do all of the consistently competitive teams, except maybe the Saints.

 

Cap space is huge. Sure, it means nothing with a crappy roster, but if you can be competitive and still have cap space, you can become one of those teams that's nearly always good.

 

And the Eagles have shown themselves over the years at being really good at handling the cap. But they have low-first-year-base-salaried themselves into cap trouble now, and it's coming back to bite them. They haven't really been able to fill holes this year, largely because of their cap situation. I suspect Roseman will learn a lesson from this going forward. Till now, he's always 

 

Agree with you on pretty much the first six or seven GMs you cited. They've proven excellence. Maybe Beane will be a top three guy some day, maybe even soon. But he's got more to prove. And I do really really like this brain trust, both guys, an awful lot.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

While I agree with you that Beane is in no way - yet - top three, you are drastically undervaluing the importance of excellent cap management. Which is most important, a good roster or good cap management? If you want your team to be not just competitive for a year or two, but competitive in the long term, consistently ... they're both necessary. An awful lot of the reason Belichick has been able to field competitive teams year after year after year is Tom Brady and his defensive game-planning, and an awful lot more is how he husbands every single cap dollar year after year after year, getting rid of expensive guys when they hold out for what value they can get elsewhere, letting good players go early so he'll never waste a cap dollar on a guy past his prime, and consistently spending less than other teams do on various position groups that other teams throw dollars at. He's got a magnifying glass on this at all times, as do all of the consistently competitive teams, except maybe the Saints.

 

Cap space is huge. Sure, it means nothing with a crappy roster, but if you can be competitive and still have cap space, you can become one of those teams that's nearly always good.

 

And the Eagles have shown themselves over the years at being really good at handling the cap. But they have low-first-year-base-salaried themselves into cap trouble now, and it's coming back to bite them. They haven't really been able to fill holes this year, largely because of their cap situation. I suspect Roseman will learn a lesson from this going forward. Till now, he's always 

 

Agree with you on pretty much the first six or seven GMs you cited. They've proven excellence. Maybe Beane will be a top three guy some day, maybe even soon. But he's got more to prove. And I do really really like this brain trust, both guys, an awful lot.

 

So cap MANAGEMENT matters. Cap space matters less and they are different. I actually don't think the Eagles situation is that bad all things being equal (ie. Covid not causing cap shrink). They have moves they can make next year. And they went all in on the 3 years after winning a Superbowl and before Wentz's cap numbers escalate. That is kind of what you are supposed to do. When you have a window be aggressive and ride your cap. They might have a mini down year in 2021 but they are back in a decent enough position beyond that.