C.Biscuit97 Posted May 3, 2020 Posted May 3, 2020 2 hours ago, MJS said: Because he's fast? When he played last year, he seemed to score a td every game. But it was a major reach and weirdly, the Bengals are good at finding receivers. Burrow probably has one of the best top to bottom receiving cores in the nfl. 43 minutes ago, Hebert19 said: See. I'd take a different approach with allen. As we know hes at least a winner. I think you try and get his to take a home town discount after year 3 if he doesnt light it up. Circa 18M-20M per year...then he is also decent trade bait if a guy falls to you in the draft...but hes locked in in case he turns into the rock star you hope. A lot of qbs would have been “winners” on the Bills. Trubisky won 12 games with the Bears in his second season. Was he a “winner” then? This year, if it happens will be great for Allen. We are going to be playing against real qbs and tough competition. Allen has a top 5 trio of wrs. There are zero excuses. If he doesn’t show he can win with his arm more than his legs, he will probably never show it. I’m excited to see if he can do it. 3
SoTier Posted May 3, 2020 Posted May 3, 2020 1 hour ago, Hebert19 said: See. I'd take a different approach with allen. As we know hes at least a winner. I think you try and get his to take a home town discount after year 3 if he doesnt light it up. Circa 18M-20M per year...then he is also decent trade bait if a guy falls to you in the draft...but hes locked in in case he turns into the rock star you hope. Name a QB in the last twenty years who has been a mediocre starter for three seasons and then morphed into a franchise QB. There isn't anybody. A team doesn't pay $18-20 million a year for a QB who's merely competent. Moreover, if a team has built a good team, they aren't going to waste it by hoping that some QB "falls to them". They go out and try to secure one. As the Eagles did when they traded up to get Wentz. As the Vikings did when they signed Kirk Cousins. As the Chiefs did when they traded up to get Mahomes even though they had a good QB worth $18-20 million already on the roster. 1
Florida Bills Fanatic Posted May 3, 2020 Posted May 3, 2020 2 hours ago, SoTier said: Actually, I think it says a lot more about changes taking place in the NFL than specifically those four teams since there were numerous other teams that also didn't extend their 2017 first rounders. Teams want to see their first rounders get up to speed quickly even if they're supposed to be "projects". If they can't produce as well as their teams think they should in their first three seasons, they aren't getting a big fifth year pay day. I think the Bears not extending Trubisky not only underscores how skeptical the team is of his ability to be a good NFL QB but is likely based on the recent past experience: young QBs who haven't shown themselves to be top QBs after three years of starting aren't likely to have an epiphany and become good/great QBs in their fourth or fifth years. It just doesn't happen. I can't think of a single mediocre three year starter who suddenly "saw the light" and became a top QB in his fourth or fifth season as a starter. In recent years, teams that extended fifth year options to mediocre first round QB wasted both time and money: Jax with Bortles (2014), TB with Winston (2015), and Tennessee with Mariota (2015). A decade ago it was common for teams to not only pick up fifth year options on first round QBs but also to extend them even if their performance wasn't all that good. Both Mark Sanchez and Ryan Tannehill benefited from that policy. I'm sure there were others. That's now morphed into only the outstanding young QBs getting paid big bucks early (Goff, Wentz, likely Mahomes and Watson soon) and the lesser one getting kicked to the curb. Teams have also become quicker to cut their losses with first round QBs who are easily identifiable busts and move on. Paxton Lynch and Josh Rosen are the quintessential examples of this. I think this trend narrows the window Josh Allen has to become a top NFL QB. Lots of Allen fans were willing to give Allen the full five years, but I don't think he gets that unless he absolutely improves this year so that he's among the top dozen or so QBs in the NFL.. Beane has taken away all of Allen's excuses by providing him with a good WR corps, decent protection, and now a pair of young RBs. Beane also drafted a potential replacement/bridge QB if Allen doesn't progress well enough and leaves after 2021. I agree with most of what you are saying. But the facts remain that all four of the teams identified in the original post have struggled to win consistently and have had more than their share of problems with high round draft picks. Those two problems are directly related.
GunnerBill Posted May 3, 2020 Posted May 3, 2020 1 hour ago, Hebert19 said: See. I'd take a different approach with allen. As we know hes at least a winner. I think you try and get his to take a home town discount after year 3 if he doesnt light it up. Circa 18M-20M per year...then he is also decent trade bait if a guy falls to you in the draft...but hes locked in in case he turns into the rock star you hope. You think Allen is signing for $18-20m next offseason? There is no chance of that. There are three options: 1. He regresses in 2020 - if so he isn't signing a long term deal on the back of a down year he is betting on himself in 2021 to put himself in a better negotiating position after that season. 2. He flatlines in 2020 - again, he isn't signing a contract. He bets on 2021 being better. Even if he did $20m isn't going to touch the sides. 3. He continues to ascend in 2021 at which point $18-20m doesn't even make his agent answer the phone. 2
Florida Bills Fanatic Posted May 3, 2020 Posted May 3, 2020 2 hours ago, Doc said: I think teams have finally realized that if you haven't justified your 1st round status by the end of year 3, it's not likely going to happen. And if you do somehow manage to put it all together in year 4, they can always franchise you. Sometimes it's just bad coaching, bad scheme fit, or just a bad team. There are some that don't fit the generalization. I think about Jerry Hughes as an example.
first_and_ten Posted May 3, 2020 Posted May 3, 2020 9 hours ago, hjnick said: Jags being Jags... ??? They try and trade Forunette, won't take whatever they can get for him... and still decline his 5th year option... What a bunch of Jags... ? Well , you have a Marrone coaching the team 1 1
yungmack Posted May 3, 2020 Posted May 3, 2020 1 hour ago, Doc said: He should be putting up good numbers this year. If he can't, then you keep him for year 4 but bring in competition and see what happens. I believe Josh is on the clock this year. He has to finally click and become the QB they hoped he was. If he doesn't, Fromm is now in the room. 2
Doc Posted May 3, 2020 Posted May 3, 2020 16 minutes ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said: Sometimes it's just bad coaching, bad scheme fit, or just a bad team. There are some that don't fit the generalization. I think about Jerry Hughes as an example. Hughes is more the exception than the rule. 11 minutes ago, yungmack said: I believe Josh is on the clock this year. He has to finally click and become the QB they hoped he was. If he doesn't, Fromm is now in the room. Yup. Although if Josh can't do it, I think they draft another QB high next year and have him compete with Fromm. I doubt the fall back is "well, Fromm's got this." 1
yungmack Posted May 3, 2020 Posted May 3, 2020 15 minutes ago, Doc said: Hughes is more the exception than the rule. Yup. Although if Josh can't do it, I think they draft another QB high next year and have him compete with Fromm. I doubt the fall back is "well, Fromm's got this." Bills shouldn't be drafting high no matter who is under center. And off the top of my head, I can't think of a hot candidate. No fan of Lawrence.
SoTier Posted May 3, 2020 Posted May 3, 2020 38 minutes ago, Doc said: Yup. Although if Josh can't do it, I think they draft another QB high next year and have him compete with Fromm. I doubt the fall back is "well, Fromm's got this." This only works if there's a QB they like that they can acquire. If not, then they likely have Allen and Fromm compete next year -- or maybe they bring in a veteran starter who's been displaced like Dalton, and hope there's a young stud QB they like -- and is attainable -- in the next draft. It's easier to say "draft a QB next year" than it is to actually do it especially for teams that are playoff caliber but need a QB upgrade. IMO, the Packers' decision to draft Love in the first round this year was partly influenced by the struggles by the Vikings and Bears to find their franchise QBs. They don't want to be a QB short of a Super Bowl contender.
Ed_Formerly_of_Roch Posted May 3, 2020 Posted May 3, 2020 17 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said: Mitch obviously a bust, but Davis and Ross were huge reaches during draft time so that makes sense. I guess the Fournette thing is becuase they hate each other and probably don’t want to pay 8 million to a running back for one year. Not sure if I'd call Mitch a bust, but he was a bust only based on where he was selected. If he were a 4th round selection, no one would be talking about how terrible he is. He may join the likes of many 1sr round stars who become career back-ups at lower cost contracts.
apuszczalowski Posted May 4, 2020 Posted May 4, 2020 4 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said: Not sure if I'd call Mitch a bust, but he was a bust only based on where he was selected. If he were a 4th round selection, no one would be talking about how terrible he is. He may join the likes of many 1sr round stars who become career back-ups at lower cost contracts. I wonder if the Patriots try to make a deal to get him or Rosen. Seems like something BB would do, grab a highly drafted QB that someone else has given up on and bring them in to turn them around under his system. These guys obviously have the talent since they were drafted as high as they were, they probably just need to find the right fit
Hebert19 Posted May 4, 2020 Posted May 4, 2020 10 hours ago, SoTier said: Name a QB in the last twenty years who has been a mediocre starter for three seasons and then morphed into a franchise QB. There isn't anybody. A team doesn't pay $18-20 million a year for a QB who's merely competent. Moreover, if a team has built a good team, they aren't going to waste it by hoping that some QB "falls to them". They go out and try to secure one. As the Eagles did when they traded up to get Wentz. As the Vikings did when they signed Kirk Cousins. As the Chiefs did when they traded up to get Mahomes even though they had a good QB worth $18-20 million already on the roster. Alex smith, drew brees, kirk cousins, matt Stafford say hi. We will see if tanny also takes that path. Net net is it can happen if the team is ***** for the first couple years... 1
Ed_Formerly_of_Roch Posted May 4, 2020 Posted May 4, 2020 22 minutes ago, Hebert19 said: Alex smith, drew brees, kirk cousins, matt Stafford say hi. We will see if tanny also takes that path. Net net is it can happen if the team is ***** for the first couple years... Another one Vinny Testarverdi (sp) He never lived up to his billing when drafted in Tampa, but had a long career, wouldn't call him a franchise QB, but certainly did better than he looked the first few years. That was before FA started too in his initial years.
Florida Bills Fanatic Posted May 4, 2020 Posted May 4, 2020 11 hours ago, SoTier said: Name a QB in the last twenty years who has been a mediocre starter for three seasons and then morphed into a franchise QB. There isn't anybody. A team doesn't pay $18-20 million a year for a QB who's merely competent. Moreover, if a team has built a good team, they aren't going to waste it by hoping that some QB "falls to them". They go out and try to secure one. As the Eagles did when they traded up to get Wentz. As the Vikings did when they signed Kirk Cousins. As the Chiefs did when they traded up to get Mahomes even though they had a good QB worth $18-20 million already on the roster. If that's entirely true, what's the story of Warren Moon and Kurt Warner. They were less than mediocre, didn't get drafted, had to play in the CFL and the arena league respectively. The facts are that they did develop and became franchise QB's. Those are just two obvious guys that came to mind. I'm not sure what is significant about the last twenty years but here are a couple examples. As far as merely competent QB's go, the 49er's just paid big bucks for Jimmy G. and I consider him to be barely competent. Tannehill and Bridgewater also fall into that description IMHO.
AlCowlingsTaxiService Posted May 4, 2020 Posted May 4, 2020 On 5/2/2020 at 10:21 PM, MrEpsYtown said: Mitch obviously a bust, but Davis and Ross were huge reaches during draft time so that makes sense. I guess the Fournette thing is becuase they hate each other and probably don’t want to pay 8 million to a running back for one year. Trubiski followed up a solid season with a sub par one. Too early to make an “obvious bust” declaration IMO
hjnick Posted May 4, 2020 Posted May 4, 2020 19 hours ago, machine gun kelly said: Funny thing about the Jags is they didn’t pay the $8mil. for Fournette, and didn’t draft anyone, and didn’t take a trade partner. Jag offs. Whatever they were asking, teams didn’t want to pay it, and over a dozen teams took RB’s in the draft. They are a lot cheaper than $8 mil. I agree they are alot cheaper, but Fournette wasn't that bad of a RB, but he did produce. Other than his attitude and non-teammatedness. I guess ultimately they thought keeping him for 1 more year was worth more than any trade offer they received.
jdonley1180 Posted May 4, 2020 Posted May 4, 2020 soooooo, are most of these guys going to end up on the trading block?
GunnerBill Posted May 4, 2020 Posted May 4, 2020 13 minutes ago, jdonley1180 said: soooooo, are most of these guys going to end up on the trading block? I'd be interested in both the Davis guys at the right price. Jarrad would start for us immediately at linebacker and be an upgrade on AJ Klein, and while we have upgraded the WR corps we have to be conscious that Beasley is 31 and John Brown is 30. Davis could come into the rotation this year and then if you get him to take essentially the money they are giving to Brown and extend him for a couple of seasons I think for 2021, 2022, 2023 Diggs as the #1 and Davis as the #2 would be pretty sweet. Wouldn't throw much at either though. We only have 7 picks next year (no #4 - Diggs trade; extra #5 - Zay Jones) so a 6th rounder would probably be as much as I'd do for what might be a one year rental on either.
Captain Caveman Posted May 4, 2020 Posted May 4, 2020 On 5/3/2020 at 7:20 AM, Buddo said: About the only one who actually has played well enough to deserve his option being picked up, is Fournette. Trouble is, he appears to be trouble, with too much to say and do, that affects the team negatively. Some of these guys just don't seem to learn. As good as he can be, RBs are viewed as expendable, pretty much throughout the NFL. Making it through all of your first deal, including getting your option picked up, is far more beneficial in the long run, than messing things up. Fournette will become a FA next year, but he won't get $8 million from anyone, unless it's over more than one year. Teams don't want perceived headaches, when they can find guys all over the place, who might give them close to the same production, at a fraction of the cost. Yet another example of an NFL player, shooting himself in the foot financially. In the case of Fournette there's also an entire organization involved which has consistently shown a remarkable ability to ostracize and alienate their own talent / players.
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