Senior Bowl executive director Jim Nagy on Jake Fromm

[Buffalo716]

2 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

I pick the metrics that franchise Qbs excel at. 

 

4 quarter comebacks?   Who cares?   You know who else led the league in game winning for the season?   Blake Bortles (2015) Geno Smith(2013) and Mariota (2017).   So what is that stat telling you? Nothing. 

 

Allen ranks dead last in Completion %.  He ranks 32nd in on-target throw percentage, per Sports Info Solutions.  His passing break down is below in the chart.  He literally falls off a cliff at about 23 yards.  And that just wasn't this year, it was his rookie year as well. 

 

"Allen’s advanced metrics do not paint an encouraging picture. He ranks 24th in QBR and has a negative Expected Points Added total. And he’s 25th in net-yards-per-attempt due to all of those sacks he takes."

 

"Even Allen’s improvement in the turnover department appears to be flukey. Yes, Allen has turned the ball over only four times (two interceptions and two fumbles lost) in the last 10 weeks, but only two players in the entire NFL have fumbled more often over that time — Buffalo has just recovered seven of his nine fumbles. And, according to Sports Info Solutions, defenders have dropped five would-be interceptions thrown by Allen since Week 10 alone."

 

His clean pocket stats, which carry the most predictive power of any statistical split, are not very good. He ranks in the bottom-third in the league in every major metric from a clean pocket, including EPA, yards-per-attempt and accuracy percentage. 

 

https://twitter.com/QBKlass/status/1208781915790004225/photo/1

 

There isn’t a quarterback from the right side of that list that turned out to be any good, except for maybe Ryan Tannehill, who is having a breakout season in Tennessee … at age 30. And even if you just use Allen’s 2019 ANY/A (5.75) as the cutoff, the only quarterback of note you’re adding to the “bad” side is Andy Dalton.

 

The bottom line is the most important analytics of a franchise Qb are absent from Allen. 

 

So I wont hold my breath waiting for him to be franchise guy, and if he fails, I'm simply happy to see McBeane has a contingency plan in the works with a steal in the fifth round.

 

Everyone says Fromm could be successful in the right system....Newsflash, this is the right system.   He's tailor made to run our style of offense. 

 

 

When Josh is a perennial pro bowler and Barkley is calling SEC games in 6 years remember how much you pounded the table for the steal Fromm

 

The only thing he is stealing is a paycheck from the Bills Because he will never play over Josh

[TroutDog]

3 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

I pick the metrics that franchise Qbs excel at. 

 

4 quarter comebacks?   Who cares?   You know who else led the league in game winning for the season?   Blake Bortles (2015) Geno Smith(2013) and Mariota (2017).   So what is that stat telling you? Nothing. 

 

Allen ranks dead last in Completion %.  He ranks 32nd in on-target throw percentage, per Sports Info Solutions.  His passing break down is below in the chart.  He literally falls off a cliff at about 23 yards.  And that just wasn't this year, it was his rookie year as well. 

 

"Allen’s advanced metrics do not paint an encouraging picture. He ranks 24th in QBR and has a negative Expected Points Added total. And he’s 25th in net-yards-per-attempt due to all of those sacks he takes."

 

"Even Allen’s improvement in the turnover department appears to be flukey. Yes, Allen has turned the ball over only four times (two interceptions and two fumbles lost) in the last 10 weeks, but only two players in the entire NFL have fumbled more often over that time — Buffalo has just recovered seven of his nine fumbles. And, according to Sports Info Solutions, defenders have dropped five would-be interceptions thrown by Allen since Week 10 alone."

 

His clean pocket stats, which carry the most predictive power of any statistical split, are not very good. He ranks in the bottom-third in the league in every major metric from a clean pocket, including EPA, yards-per-attempt and accuracy percentage. 

 

https://twitter.com/QBKlass/status/1208781915790004225/photo/1

 

There isn’t a quarterback from the right side of that list that turned out to be any good, except for maybe Ryan Tannehill, who is having a breakout season in Tennessee … at age 30. And even if you just use Allen’s 2019 ANY/A (5.75) as the cutoff, the only quarterback of note you’re adding to the “bad” side is Andy Dalton.

 

The bottom line is the most important analytics of a franchise Qb are absent from Allen. 

 

So I wont hold my breath waiting for him to be franchise guy, and if he fails, I'm simply happy to see McBeane has a contingency plan in the works with a steal in the fifth round.

 

Everyone says Fromm could be successful in the right system....Newsflash, this is the right system.   He's tailor made to run our style of offense. 

 

 

You’re ability to share statistics Indicates you have a grasp of stats in general. Given this, you should also know something of sample size. Josh has started less that two years and yet you’re offering these stats against his counterparts who have been filling the position for ten plus years. 
 

Try offering comparisons of second year QB’s...perhaps going back five years or so. 
 

If you can’t see the improvement, then ok. Try watching the games. ? 

Edited May 3, 2020 by TroutDog

[Coach Tuesday]

Fromm is not likely viewed as a potential lottery ticket starter.  More likely, he’s viewed as a solid backup AND a potential bridge starter in the event Allen flames out - i.e., someone who could start for a year or two while the next high draft pick QB develops.  Hopefully it doesn’t come to that.

[racketmaster]

Not sure if this was already posted but this is a good article on Fromm going back to the Super Bowl where Nagy was very high on him as a prospect. Here is the link:  htttps://dawgnation.com/football/jake-fromm-nfl-super-bowl-jim-nagy 

 

 

But the film doesn’t lie, and Nagy — a scout with six Super Bowl teams during his 18 years in the NFL — is among the best at breaking down talent.

“The more Jake Fromm tape we watch the more we like him,” Nagy said on his Twitter account. “He’s got more arm talent than we’ve given him credit for in the past. “Thought he was making a mistake leaving early but he’s not. After 42 SEC starts he’s more than ready.”

 

ESPN analyst Mel Kiper Jr. recently compared Fromm to Cincinnati Bengals QB Andy Dalton.

“From a competitiveness, leadership, smarts, size – (standpoint),” Kiper said during a podcast with fellow ESPN analyst Todd McShay.

Both analysts pointed out — as did Kirby Smart during last season — that Fromm had limited personnel to work with at receiver.

 

“A quarterback like that, kinda like (Tom) Brady at this point in his career, he’s got to be able to trust guys and where they are going, rather than just be able to drive the ball down the field — that’s not Fromm,” McShay said. “I think if he’s put in the right situation… I think he has the chance to be a solid, to good starter. He was one of if not the most impressive players I met with all season long, in terms of how hard he works and his knowledge of the game. So you are getting that but if you are worried about physical limitations, he’s not for you.” 

 

Bleacher report draft analyst Matt Miller said Kirk Cousins is who he compares Fromm to. Nagy, a scout for Super Bowl winning teams in Green Bay, New England and Seattle, said Fromm is “a few grade levels higher” than Cousins. Nagy also indicated that Fromm grades out much higher than former Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray, a fifth-round pick of the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2014 NFL Draft. 

 

Nagy said he’s surprised there aren’t more comparisons being made between Fromm and Brees.

Nagy also said that Fromm’s pass protection wasn’t as good as most assume: “That OL isn’t nearly as good as you might think.  I was surprised how many issues they had in pass pro.”

 

Early on in the draft process (going back to January), McShay had Fromm as a top 32 prospect. I really do think the pandemic hurt Fromm because his intangibles and leadership qualities are off the charts. He would have lured some teams in on those intangibles alone. But I do also think a pro day in which he showed he could make all the throws using wrs he was familiar with would have alleviated some of the arm strength concerns. Watching his games I do see some throws that are under thrown or lacked zip but I also see just as many throws where he displays good arm strength and the ability to throw with enough velocity while off platform. I never really saw that from Barkley who I believe has a weaker arm compared to Fromm. 

 

I'm a huge Allen supporter and have been from the start so in no way am I advocating for Fromm to be our starter. I think Allen is an ascending qb and could be one of the top 5 qbs in the NFL within a year or two with all the talent he possesses. But it is always good to have insurance at the premium position of quarterback in case of injury or if for some reason Allen regresses. Most likely, Fromm comes in and sits behind Barkley and Allen for a year. Then he takes over for Barkely in year two. He plays well in preseason games and maybe during his 4 year rookie contract he gets a chance to start a few games due to an Allen injury or because we have a playoff spot locked up in the final week of season. Ideally, Fromm plays well in limited action and is either traded for a high pick before contract expires or he leaves for a big contract and it helps Bills get a better comp pick. This Fromm pick is a win, win with almost no risk or downside. 

Edited May 5, 2020 by racketmaster

[Ga boy]

On 5/3/2020 at 2:50 PM, BeastMaster said:

He would need to play with a great coach and system that tailors to his game perfectly and playing in fair weather conditions would also help.

 

I don't think he's getting any of that in Buffalo

If he is any thing like Brady, why didn’t the football genius in NE take him?? 

Edited May 5, 2020 by Ga boy

[racketmaster]

18 minutes ago, Ga boy said:

If he is any thing like Brady, why didn’t the football genius in NE take him?? 

Not sure but if I had to guess,  Bill believes in Stidham and he has been in there system for a year now and could hit the ground running this year for them. It is going to be a shortened period to get ready for the season which will make it tougher on all rookies, especially quarterbacks. Then again, maybe Bill was just waiting for the 6th round to grab Fromm lol 

[Doc]

8 hours ago, Ga boy said:

If he is any thing like Brady, why didn’t the football genius in NE take him?? 

 

Because it’s very tough to win the lottery twice?

[Steptide]

Man I dunno. I remember what happened last time this team decided to start a 5th round pick at qb. I hope he can become a long term back up qb, other than that I'm kinda tired of hearing about him

[racketmaster]

On 5/1/2020 at 6:48 PM, TwistofFate said:

Apparently, according to Nagy, Buffalo is extremely happy with the Fromm pick.  The outcome of Allen will impact what happens to Fromm.  Nagy lays down a couple of scenario's surrounding Fromm's future.

 

 

 

Fromm talk begins at 16:51

It seems likely that Nagy was texting with Dan Morgan after the pick of Fromm as the two worked together in Seattle for a few years. That would mean the excitement for Fromm is coming from the highest levels of the Bills organization. Also, indicated that the Bills are very high on Josh Allen and in no way looking to replace him. Just looks like what Beane has said, they were not necessarily looking for a qb but Fromm was too good to pass up at that point and he plays a premium position. My guess is the Bills had Fromm rated as a 3rd round prospect and he was just sticking out at that point in the draft. 

[TwistofFate]

On 5/5/2020 at 10:45 AM, Ga boy said:

If he is any thing like Brady, why didn’t the football genius in NE take him?? 

Because he plans on tanking the season while building a strong defense in order to prepare the team for his selection of Trevor Lawerence in next years draft. 

[NewEra]

On 5/5/2020 at 4:45 PM, Steptide said:

Man I dunno. I remember what happened last time this team decided to start a 5th round pick at qb. I hope he can become a long term back up qb, other than that I'm kinda tired of hearing about him

Problem:  tired of hearing about Jake Fromm

 

Solution: stop clicking on the links that contain his name

[Rico]

On 5/3/2020 at 12:40 AM, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

Why doesn’t Fromm just start then?  

Because stats are for losers.