Can our #2 WR consistently beat one on one coverage

[The Rooster]

11 hours ago, MJS said:

I didn't read it and think that the OP thinks Brown can't. I think he just meant it as conversation.

 

But yeah, I think the answer is pretty obvious. The real question is how many targets will Brown get now? His production likely will drop if Diggs is getting the targets that he got last year. Or, we might have two 1,000 yard receivers, which would be crazy. Have we ever had that?

 

If Josh takes the right steps the production shouldn't change all that much. Diggs and Brown at ~1000 yds, Beasley not far behind at 600-800, Knox above 500, and more production through Davis/Hodgins/Rbs etc. making up another 500 or more yards. Both the offense and Josh would have to be taking steps forward though. 

[DJB]

16 hours ago, Old Coot said:

 

 

Edited May 1, 2020 by DJB

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And in addition double Diggs or spy Allen is a tougher choice. I suspect teams spy less than they did last year when the Bills are in 11. 

Indeed.

 

Start looking at the defensive math and you have to make a sacrifice. Teams want to play nickel as much as possible for flexibility, but at best you can match to your 3 WRs and a TE. To do so you’ve got to pick from 3

options: playing hat on hat in the run game, spying the QB, or playing single high in the secondary.

 

You better have some athletic LBs and safeties that can thump against the run, or else you’re going to have to substitute and give the offense a look they can take advantage of. This is the type of thing that NE****** has been doing with their forced personnel looks for years.

[JerseyBills]

Yes, some might say he can Smoke 1 on 1 coverage

[dbfla10]

17 hours ago, MJS said:

John Brown did pretty well as the number one guy last year. He got open with speed, quickness, and precise route running. Should have an even easier time this year.

 

Diggs is great because he's like John Brown on steroids. Not just a good route runner, he is the best. He's quick. Maybe not as fast as Brown (not sure). But the new element that he brings is contested catch ability, something we have sorely lacked.

Diggs ability to catch 50 50 balls is a huge asset the Bills are getting. Not sure I remember the last Bills WR with his ball skills. The biggest problem with Watkins is hes not good "in the air" getting 50 50, an attribute a good #1 needs. 

[GunnerBill]

50 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Indeed.

 

Start looking at the defensive math and you have to make a sacrifice. Teams want to play nickel as much as possible for flexibility, but at best you can match to your 3 WRs and a TE. To do so you’ve got to pick from 3

options: playing hat on hat in the run game, spying the QB, or playing single high in the secondary.

 

You better have some athletic LBs and safeties that can thump against the run, or else you’re going to have to substitute and give the offense a look they can take advantage of. This is the type of thing that NE****** has been doing with their forced personnel looks for years.

 

Absolutely. That is why a true #1 makes a difference. It is not just the plays Diggs will make. It is the way he makes people defend you as a team. It was noticeable last year that most of Allen's yards running were when he got outside, whereas go back to early 2018 before teams were spying him as a matter of course and the image of him charging right up the middle of the field like a rhino let loose was a regular sight. If the spy disappears to allow you to have a safety over the top of Diggs or to play a conventional cover 2 shell to avoid giving up the throw over the top to either of the two outside guys then it opens things up for Allen in the run game.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

A real conundrum for defenses...especially when Daboll then runs the RB straight up the middle.  ?

*
I know, the door is over there...?

[dbfla10]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Absolutely. That is why a true #1 makes a difference. It is not just the plays Diggs will make. It is the way he makes people defend you as a team. It was noticeable last year that most of Allen's yards running were when he got outside, whereas go back to early 2018 before teams were spying him as a matter of course and the image of him charging right up the middle of the field like a rhino let loose was a regular sight. If the spy disappears to allow you to have a safety over the top of Diggs or to play a conventional cover 2 shell to avoid giving up the throw over the top to either of the two outside guys then it opens things up for Allen in the run game.

Teams will not be scared of the deep game until allen starts hitting the deep ball.  Allen missed brown on deep balls more than I can count. I see teams still playing 1 high even with a true 1 until Allen can prove he can hit the deep ball consistently 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

I know we’ve been told by the Bills for years about how a #1 WR draws all this extra coverage, tilts the field, similar to a dominant DT drawing double teams so the ends are left one on one and vice versa, but the real question is does it help us get more points on the board?

 

We’ve talked for years on here about catch radius and being open when you’re not open, but none of it has translated to a top flight offense.

 

John Brown is a good NFL WR. But I don’t think Diggs, Beasley and Brown are such a nightmare for opposing defensive coaches that they won’t be able to plan for it. The coverage will be there. It will be up to Allen to make the throws. 
 

Foster and the deep throw disappeared last year, so I don’t know if that’s supposed to be Gabe Davis now. But if the Bills stick Diggs on the outside and change little else, then I would expect modest improvements. Not a scheme to take the league by storm.

 

Honestly I think Allen is limited. I think getting to 24-25 ppg with him is going to be an accomplishment.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

29 minutes ago, dbfla10 said:

Teams will not be scared of the deep game until allen starts hitting the deep ball.  Allen missed brown on deep balls more than I can count. I see teams still playing 1 high even with a true 1 until Allen can prove he can hit the deep ball consistently 

This is what I think as well.

 

If Allen remains a limited passer, I don’t think sticking Diggs on the outside generates a large shift in points scored.

 

I think it’s going to be modest improvement. The only measure that ultimately matters is points.

 

All this scheme and coverage and catch radius and mismatches has not translated into an an upper echelon offense in Buffalo for 20 years. 

[Big Gun]

18 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

Well he was often double covered last year as our #1 WR and had the best year of his career. 72 catches, 1060 yards and 6 TD. I don't think he will have any issues. 

 

If he can't beat single coverage on a given play, there is also Cole Beasley.

 

I have a feeling on a given play 1/3 of those guys will be open. 

I know, right! Do people just wake up from under a rock or something! WTF!

[jrober38]

The Bills have one of the top 4-5 WR groups in the NFL.

 

This is a non-issue. 

[Fr. Jerk]

I like that Cole now rocks Roscoe's old number.

 

That was one fast f***, ya dig?

Edited May 1, 2020 by The Jerk

[Doc]

1 hour ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

A real conundrum for defenses...especially when Daboll then runs the RB straight up the middle.  ?

*
I know, the door is over there...?

 

It opens things up for Josh to run as well.

 

37 minutes ago, The Jerk said:

I like that Cole now rocks Roscoe's old number.

 

That was one fast f***, ya dig?

 

Cole's old number in Dallas too.  Zay had it and I believe you can't change numbers in-season.

[dbfla10]

54 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

The Bills have one of the top 4-5 WR groups in the NFL.

 

This is a non-issue. 

 

Doesn't matter how good your WR are. IF the QB cant hit the deep, and scare teams into playing 2 high safety the WR position doesn't matter... As of right now Allen really struggles with the deep ball. I believe he hit less than 25% on balls over 20yds. That is absolutely terrible

[Doc]

25 minutes ago, dbfla10 said:

Doesn't matter how good your WR are. IF the QB cant hit the deep, and scare teams into playing 2 high safety the WR position doesn't matter... As of right now Allen really struggles with the deep ball. I believe he hit less than 25% on balls over 20yds. That is absolutely terrible

 

Did defenses eschew playing 2 high safety last year?  I don't know, just asking.

[The Firebaugh Kid]

John Brown? Without a doubt. 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

20 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

Well he was often double covered last year as our #1 WR and had the best year of his career. 72 catches, 1060 yards and 6 TD. I don't think he will have any issues. 

 

If he can't beat single coverage on a given play, there is also Cole Beasley.

 

I have a feeling on a given play 1/3 of those guys will be open. 

Ravens pats and phins mostly manned up.  Occasionally there was deep zone safety help, but who was outright doubling or bracketing him, don’t recall that...

[nedboy7]

5 hours ago, dbfla10 said:

 

Doesn't matter how good your WR are. IF the QB cant hit the deep, and scare teams into playing 2 high safety the WR position doesn't matter... As of right now Allen really struggles with the deep ball. I believe he hit less than 25% on balls over 20yds. That is absolutely terrible

back into quarantine for you! 

[Prospector]

OP FAIL! Where's the dang poll?! What a waste...

 

 

 

 

and yes