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Opinions on a hypothetical trade


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Would you pull this trade off if you were the Bills GM?

 

John Brown for AJ Green

 

AJ Green is not happy in Cincy and wants a new deal.  He is a perennial pro bowler, (7 pro bowls).  AJ Green has only played 4 full seasons out of 9. He probably would play 2 more years tops.  Personally I think for the short term he would be amazing on the other side of Diggs, almost like what James Lofton was for Andre Reed.  He is great with the intermediate and deep ball and has a knack for the end zone.

 

John Brown's value has never been higher.  He is coming off a great year with Buffalo and has 2 years remaining on his contract. He lacks size but is a very good route runner and came through in the clutch many times for us last year.  John Brown has only played 2 full seasons out of 6.

 

AJ Green (will be 32yrs old when the season begins)                      John Brown (will be 30yrs old when the season begins)                             

6'4                                                                                                                5'11

9 seasons                                                                                                   6 seasons

75 catches per season  avg                                                                    48 catches per season avg

1,113 yards per season avg                                                                    715 yards per season avg

8 td's per season avg                                                                                5 td's per season avg

7 pro bowls                                                                                                 0 pro bowls

 

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You're looking at statistics the wrong way.   You shouldn't look at them over the player's entire career.   You should be looking at them in a statistically relevant sample size, or in this case, the most recent years, and not just over a one year period which could give you anomalies.   A good sample size is the last three years.  In that case you'd end up with the following:  That said why would you trade a younger player, for an older, more injured player who is less productive?  Especially when the younger player just had his best career as a pro?

 

Player

Current Age

GMS/YR

Rec/YR

Yrds/YR

TD/YR

Green

30

9

43

570

4

Brown

29

13

45

690

4

Edited by thenorthremembers
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7 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

You're looking at statistics the wrong way.   You shouldn't look at them over the player's entire career.   You should be looking at them in a statistically relevant sample size, or in this case, the most recent years, and not just over a one year period which could give you anomalies.   A good sample size is the last three years.  In that case you'd end up with the following:  That said why would you trade a younger player, for an older, more injured player who is less productive?  Especially when the younger player just had his best career as a pro?

 

Player

Current Age

GMS/YR

Rec/YR

Yrds/YR

TD/YR

Green

30

9

43

570

4

Brown

29

13

45

690

4

If there’s salary room, of course it would be a no-brainer trade.  Green has been about equally productive while playing 12 fewer games and at about 60% physically.  If he returns to full strength, he’s twice the player.  If he doesn’t, he’s still at least equal.

Edited by Billl
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Maybe if they throw in a second. But even then, I don’t see a need. Diggs and Brown are a sexy compliment to me because the both are 3 level threats whose speed has to be accounted for. You can’t play single high against them on the outside.

 

We wanted that to happen with Foster and Brown on the outside, but Foster laid an egg. We know we’re getting it with Brown and Diggs.

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I would not do that trade, primarily because of Green’s injury issues recently. That, and Brown seems to be trending up the last two seasons. 
 

Peak AJ Green is a better player for sure. But I don’t think peak AJ exists anymore.

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13 minutes ago, Billl said:

If there’s salary room, of course it would be a no-brainer trade.  Green has been about equally productive while playing 12 fewer games and at about 60% physically.  If he returns to full strength, he’s twice the player.  If he doesn’t, he’s still at least equal.

 

the statistics on whether he returns to full strength or plays in all of those games where he is not helping you at all is 0 divided by zero

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27 minutes ago, Billl said:

If there’s salary room, of course it would be a no-brainer trade.  Green has been about equally productive while playing 12 fewer games and at about 60% physically.  If he returns to full strength, he’s twice the player.  If he doesn’t, he’s still at least equal.

The best decisions are made by taking the scenario that has fewer "what ifs."  For me its a no brainer to keep Brown.

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