[paywall] Athletic 2020 draft class rank by team - Bills #2

[FireChans]

42 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

They have the #2 based on ROI from the amount of draft capital they have vs. the value across the athletics consensus big board.  Based on where kickers sit on the big board top 300 (probably not on it), he would be selected like 70 spots too high.  That's considered a reach.  

 

 

That at the time - we had value picks in ragland, lawson, and cardale jones based on where selected vs. where they sat on the big board.  4 years later, and 2 of those players vastly underperformed, and lawson while not a bust isn't necessarily outplaying his draft position.  

Lol that comparison was drawn on here a few days ago. Let’s hope the result is better.

[hondo in seattle]

2 hours ago, cage said:

Its actually a very good analysis and too bad its not available to everyone as it would make a good post draft discussion.  They basically average a ranking of each player based on 60 different evaluators to get a consensus draft board.  Then they take what each team picked and calculate how much of a reach or steal it is.  If you had the #10 pick and selected the #25 player then that is a -15 reach.  They make more advanced statistical adjustments based on position from previous drafts.  So the reach I just gave an example of may be less of one if you're picking a QB vs if you selected a TE or S.  

 

So then across the draft they can take your draft capital (positions you picked from) and match it against the big board to compute how much better or worse a team does than the consensus board. It looks like there's also some multiplier for each round.  So a -15 reach in the 1st is worse than one in the 7th round.  I didn't see an exact formula as to how they made some of those adjustments as I wasn't able to replicate their numbers

 

The Bills ended up #3 across the NFL.  Its not clear to me how they accounted for #22+ / Diggs trade in these calculations??

 

This sounds great. But is it?  How good are these evaluators?  How many good evaluators are there, actually, not working as NFL scouts?  

 

It seems like using 60 "evaluators," instead of say 20, only waters down the quality of the evaluator pool.  

Edited April 28, 2020 by hondo in seattle

[SDS]

1 hour ago, eball said:

I know some people just don't want to pay for their internet sports content but if there's one site you should consider subscribing to it's The Athletic.  They really have had the best Bills content by far since their inception, and there's a heluva lot more than that on the site.

Big picture. People pulling out content from local news companies have hastened the death of local news companies. You may be happy with the QBs analysis, but really pissed off that the local comptroller was embezzling funds or the mayor has neo-nazi roots and no one was around to tell you about it. 

[fergie's ire]

1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

All I know is the number of hits by Beane far outweigh the number of misses...honestly the only big miss I can think of would be Zay...

 

I mean sure you could say Teller but realistically can anyone after the 3rd round be considered a "miss"? The chances they succeed drop dramatically post round 3.

And Beane didn't draft Zay....unless you believe the conspiracy theory that he was orchestrating our draft while working for the Panthers.

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, fergie's ire said:

And Beane didn't draft Zay....unless you believe the conspiracy theory that he was orchestrating our draft while working for the Panthers.

 

Valid point...I always forget he didn't come in until after that first draft McDermott was here...does Beane have a miss yet in the draft here?

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

11 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Lol that comparison was drawn on here a few days ago. Let’s hope the result is better.

 

Lawson at 54 isn't too bad tbh.  Same with Cardale in the 5th.  Ragland was also a trade up to 41... that cost us pick 117.  Prescott went 135 to Cardales 139... If we are looking QB in the 4th.  Could have Prescott and Tyrod to start McD era in 2017.  Oops.

1 minute ago, matter2003 said:

 

Valid point...I always forget he didn't come in until after that first draft McDermott was here...does Beane have a miss yet in the draft here?

 

I don't consider anything after round 5 like miss-able.  McCloud and Proehl were misses but we found foster for nothing so, means nothing.  Even Teller got a return on draft picks before they released him.  Joseph didn't play so he's the only true ?

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, Turbo44 said:

Yeah he was the one pick I didn’t love. Huge leg but accuracy is a concern. I wanted Runyan (G) at that pick but Beane must not have liked him 

Josh has a huge arm but accuracy was a concern. That's working out so far. Hauschka's days are numbered and if this kid can kick a 50 yarder standing still, I can live with 78-80% his first year or two. Hauschka can't kick from 50 anymore and Sean knows it.

[TPS]

1 hour ago, GG said:

The article also pours salt on the wound of the pathetic 2016 Bills draft.

Yeah, I got a kick out of that.  They evaluated who was viewed as a steal as those being selected in some range outside of their ranking on their big board.

For the Bills, Lawson, Ragland, and C. Jones were all picked beyond their  projections.  They then identified them as 'steals" on whether or not they "panned out." I assume that meant they were retained by the teams who drafted them.  All three were designated correctly as NO.

[eball]

24 minutes ago, SDS said:

Big picture. People pulling out content from local news companies have hastened the death of local news companies. You may be happy with the QBs analysis, but really pissed off that the local comptroller was embezzling funds or the mayor has neo-nazi roots and no one was around to tell you about it. 

 

So The Athletic killed local non-sports news?  Interesting.

[SDS]

1 minute ago, eball said:

 

So The Athletic killed local non-sports news?  Interesting.

 

Classifieds first... Recently, the dropping of more subscriptions in favor of The Athletic, has accelerated the decline. Many parts subsidize the news room. Or used to.

[GG]

14 minutes ago, TPS said:

Yeah, I got a kick out of that.  They evaluated who was viewed as a steal as those being selected in some range outside of their ranking on their big board.

For the Bills, Lawson, Ragland, and C. Jones were all picked beyond their  projections.  They then identified them as 'steals" on whether or not they "panned out." I assume that meant they were retained by the teams who drafted them.  All three were designated correctly as NO.

 

They also missed the glaring No that was Adolphus Washington.

[No_Matter_What]

2 hours ago, matter2003 said:

All I know is the number of hits by Beane far outweigh the number of misses...honestly the only big miss I can think of would be Zay...

Zay was picked prior Beane's arrival, wasn't he?

[papazoid]

another great draft.....extend beane now....before his price goes higher than tre...lol

[saundena]

Curious to know what they said about SF and especially Houston (where I live).  BoB is the most hated man in the city.

[TroutDog]

1 hour ago, SDS said:

 

Classifieds first... Recently, the dropping of more subscriptions in favor of The Athletic, has accelerated the decline. Many parts subsidize the news room. Or used to.

I subscribe to The Athletic and Rochester D & C because local journalism is so critical. These local ‘papers’ ask so little (about $8 per month) that it’s a no brainer to me. 
 

The Athletic is another story: love their writing, both local and ‘local national’. It’s a new take and I appreciate it. Just my opinion...and I have the few bucks a month that both cost. If others do, they’re worth investing in because, if you do, you can turn off ESPN which everyone here seems to loathe. 

[ticketssince61]

5 hours ago, cage said:

Its actually a very good analysis and too bad its not available to everyone as it would make a good post draft discussion.  They basically average a ranking of each player based on 60 different evaluators to get a consensus draft board.  Then they take what each team picked and calculate how much of a reach or steal it is.  If you had the #10 pick and selected the #25 player then that is a -15 reach.  They make more advanced statistical adjustments based on position from previous drafts.  So the reach I just gave an example of may be less of one if you're picking a QB vs if you selected a TE or S.  

 

So then across the draft they can take your draft capital (positions you picked from) and match it against the big board to compute how much better or worse a team does than the consensus board. It looks like there's also some multiplier for each round.  So a -15 reach in the 1st is worse than one in the 7th round.  I didn't see an exact formula as to how they made some of those adjustments as I wasn't able to replicate their numbers

 

The Bills ended up #3 across the NFL.  Its not clear to me how they accounted for #22+ / Diggs trade in these calculations??

 

Do they weight the pick by the round?

 

For Example, picking a #100 ranked player with the overall #1 pick is much worse than picking a #300 ranked player with the #201nd pick

 

Hope everyone is safe and healthy

[JoPoy88]

2 hours ago, eball said:

 

So The Athletic killed local non-sports news?  Interesting.

I didn’t know you were such a shill for them. Or so humorless now. You used to be fun.

[Mike in Horseheads]

I'd say the Bills are fortunate this year that BPA because we need everything days are over. So makes sense to identify spots needing a patch or upgrade. I hope this works out having the Patriots at 31 makes me happy. But I want them to be 7-9,6-10, etc for years AKA QB hell not bottom feeders and getting top pick

[stinky finger]

5 hours ago, FireChans said:

What did it say?

 

Let me get 5 dollah 

[BuffaninSarasota]

6 hours ago, ALLEN-2-DIGGS-TD!! said:

I can never open up half of these things because you have to be a subscriber 

 

that's why PTR clearly uses the word "paywall" in his thread title