[paywall] Athletic 2020 draft class rank by team - Bills #2

[PromoTheRobot]

https://theathletic.com/1777429/2020/04/27/consensus-big-board-ranking-the-2020-nfl-draft-classes-from-1-to-32/

 

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So let’s project for 2020. Here, we calculated the expected value each team earned on the pick and subtracted the capital of the pick, using an equation that weighs the value of the team’s selections (capital) against the draftees’ rankings in the Consensus Big Board (value). We also take into account positional needs — if a team, for example, drafts a running back because he’s the highest-ranked player on the board but then never plays that running back because there are five better ones on the roster, that wasn’t a good pick. (For more information on how we arrived at the capital and value numbers, check out last year’s article.) Most teams ended up over 100 percent in the return on investment column because the positional need calculation gave them boosts, which means that some teams that graded poorly in other draft class rankings still ended up net positive in value here — just not as positive as the other teams around them.

 

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As for Buffalo, San Francisco and Houston, there are three different stories. Analysts were high on Buffalo’s draft but not nearly high enough — Buffalo gained value with every single pick except kicker Tyler Bass. A first-round talent in the second, a third-round talent in the fifth and a pair of fifth-round talents in the seventh highlight their draft.

 

They consider K Tyler Bass the #14 reach of the draft.

Edited April 28, 2020 by PromoTheRobot

[Don Otreply]

So, are they saying drafting for positional need is the way to draft? 
( no subscription ) 

[PromoTheRobot]

Just now, Don Otreply said:

So, are they saying drafting for positional need is the way to draft? 
( no subscription ) 

 

No but they gave points for hitting a need.

[ALLEN1QB]

I can never open up half of these things because you have to be a subscriber 

[Turbo44]

32 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

https://theathletic.com/1777429/2020/04/27/consensus-big-board-ranking-the-2020-nfl-draft-classes-from-1-to-32/

 

 

 

They consider K Tyler Bass the #14 reach of the draft.

Yeah he was the one pick I didn’t love. Huge leg but accuracy is a concern. I wanted Runyan (G) at that pick but Beane must not have liked him 

[Don Otreply]

21 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

No but they gave points for hitting a need.

That only makes sense, like Oliver last season, total need driven pick that happened to be filled by an above average prospect. Beane has a knack for filling positional scheme needs, gotta like that guy...?

[cage]

Its actually a very good analysis and too bad its not available to everyone as it would make a good post draft discussion.  They basically average a ranking of each player based on 60 different evaluators to get a consensus draft board.  Then they take what each team picked and calculate how much of a reach or steal it is.  If you had the #10 pick and selected the #25 player then that is a -15 reach.  They make more advanced statistical adjustments based on position from previous drafts.  So the reach I just gave an example of may be less of one if you're picking a QB vs if you selected a TE or S.  

 

So then across the draft they can take your draft capital (positions you picked from) and match it against the big board to compute how much better or worse a team does than the consensus board. It looks like there's also some multiplier for each round.  So a -15 reach in the 1st is worse than one in the 7th round.  I didn't see an exact formula as to how they made some of those adjustments as I wasn't able to replicate their numbers

 

The Bills ended up #3 across the NFL.  Its not clear to me how they accounted for #22+ / Diggs trade in these calculations??

[NewEra]

16 minutes ago, ALLEN-2-DIGGS-TD!! said:

I can never open up half of these things because you have to be a subscriber 

2020.  That’s life

[Big Turk]

All I know is the number of hits by Beane far outweigh the number of misses...honestly the only big miss I can think of would be Zay...

 

I mean sure you could say Teller but realistically can anyone after the 3rd round be considered a "miss"? The chances they succeed drop dramatically post round 3.

Edited April 28, 2020 by matter2003

[GG]

The article also pours salt on the wound of the pathetic 2016 Bills draft.

[Mat68]

You can draft the best player, you can fill a need.  Accomplishing both while still getting good value is the key.  Buffalo basically drafted a player a rd later than where they were rated.  They left the draft with a question mark at punter and saftey depth.  It might not be the the players people here were clamoring for.  They got guys come August, who are going to push decent player off the roster.

[eball]

I know some people just don't want to pay for their internet sports content but if there's one site you should consider subscribing to it's The Athletic.  They really have had the best Bills content by far since their inception, and there's a heluva lot more than that on the site.

[Chandler#81]

8 minutes ago, eball said:

I know some people just don't want to pay for their internet sports content but if there's one site you should consider subscribing to it's The Athletic.  They really have had the best Bills content by far since their inception, and there's a heluva lot more than that on the site.

well, since you’re willing to go door to door in this uncertain era to sell your subscriptions, young man, what’s the co$t?

[FireChans]

21 minutes ago, GG said:

The article also pours salt on the wound of the pathetic 2016 Bills draft.

What did it say?

[JerseyBills]

It's cool but projecting how these rookies adapt to the NFL is nearly impossible and unpredictable. 

Always Huge busts and shockers , such as UDFA rookies outplaying a 1st rder . That's what makes the NFL and draft so great

[eball]

2 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

well, since you’re willing to go door to door in this uncertain era to sell your subscriptions, young man, what’s the co$t?

 

LOL -- I honestly don't know.  Maybe $60/year or something like that?  I think there are deals also.

[JoPoy88]

22 minutes ago, eball said:

I know some people just don't want to pay for their internet sports content but if there's one site you should consider subscribing to it's The Athletic.  They really have had the best Bills content by far since their inception, and there's a heluva lot more than that on the site.

But what if you really really hate Joe B?

[eball]

1 minute ago, JoPoy88 said:

But what if you really really hate Joe B?

 

Then I'd say you have bigger issues than deciding whether or not to pay for sports coverage.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said:

https://theathletic.com/1777429/2020/04/27/consensus-big-board-ranking-the-2020-nfl-draft-classes-from-1-to-32/

 

 

 

They consider K Tyler Bass the #14 reach of the draft.

 

They have the #2 based on ROI from the amount of draft capital they have vs. the value across the athletics consensus big board.  Based on where kickers sit on the big board top 300 (probably not on it), he would be selected like 70 spots too high.  That's considered a reach.  

 

15 minutes ago, FireChans said:

What did it say?

 

That at the time - we had value picks in ragland, lawson, and cardale jones based on where selected vs. where they sat on the big board.  4 years later, and 2 of those players vastly underperformed, and lawson while not a bust isn't necessarily outplaying his draft position.  

[JoPoy88]

40 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Then I'd say you have bigger issues than deciding whether or not to pay for sports coverage.

*really really hate Joe B’s coverage eball, obviously.