The trade that didn't happen

[BillsfaninSB]

Marino said it was John Simpson OG from Clemson. 

[JESSEFEFFER]

12 hours ago, mjt328 said:

If he was targeting an O-Lineman, that rules out Round 2.  We picked at 54 and the last OL player to go before us was Robert Hunt at 39.

Beane stated they were targeting Zack Moss the entire time in Round 3, and actually tried to move-up for him.  Also ruled out.

 

Now Beane says he was discussing the trade with an NFC General Manager.

He also states the pick was about 3-4 spots above ours.

 

• In Round 4, we picked at 128.  OT Charlie Heck went only two picks before us.  So if we were targeting him, that would mean we were discussing a trade up one spot with Philly.  This doesn't fit.  However, Detroit took OG Logan Stenberg 7 picks before us.  And Chicago owned pick 125 (eventually traded to the Jets).  This is a fit.
• In Round 5, there are several fits.  We picked at 167.  There are several NFC teams between us and when OC Nick Harris was picked at 160.  It's also worth noting that Beane "wasn't planning" on targeting a QB this weekend, and picked Jake Fromm simply because of value on the board.  This also suggests he was targeting something else, but it fell through.
• There are also fits in Round 6.  We picked at 188.  There were a handful of OL players picked in the early 180s (Hakeem Adeniji, Netane Muti and Michael Onwenu).  There are also a group of NFC GMs in-between, including our counterpart the Panthers at 184.  We ended up taking a kicker at that pick.  Later in the round, OT Blake Brandel went a few picks before us.  With the Vikings sitting in-between.
• Round 7 has Dustin Woodard going nine spots before us, with a handful of NFC teams in-between.

So by process of elimination, I believe the player Beane was targeting is among this list:

OG Logan Stenberg

OC Nick Harris

OT Hakeem Adeniji

OG Netane Muti

OG Michael Onwenu

OT Blake Brandel

OC Dustin Woodard

 

 

 

Hah!  Easy.  Colonel Mustard in the conservatory with a lead pipe!

[JESSEFEFFER]

7 hours ago, BillsfaninSB said:

Marino said it was John Simpson OG from Clemson. 

I don't think his guess is a good one.  He was picked too far away from where the Bills had their pick to fit the story, #109 vs. #128.  He was just very sure that the Bills were really interested in him.

[djp14150]

On 4/27/2020 at 9:20 PM, The Jokeman said:

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2020/04/27/brandon-beane-reveals-buffalo-bills-potential-2020-nfl-draft-trade/

 

Muti doesn't fit 3 or 4 picks away as he was the second pick in round 6, we owned eighth pick in round.

 

The way I read this...

 

someone was coming fown. He looked to jive up 4 picks to get him. He starts talks thike them while a team 10  picks ahead of buffalo is on the clock. Thry talk trade details but the player is picked 6-8 picks before buffalos original position..

 

this happens in 3rd or 5th ehere an OL was pickedaround 8 picks ahead and they likely talked with Dallas or Chicago.

 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

Pretty good round-by-round breakdown of all potential options here:

https://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/2020/04/buffalo-bills-nfl-draft-mystery-who-was-brandon-beane-attempting-to-trade-up-for-on-day-3.html

 

IMO, it was Muti in the 6th.

 

 

[JESSEFEFFER]

On 4/27/2020 at 9:20 PM, 1ManRaid said:

Wasn't it reported that they tried to trade up as high as 7 spots for Moss?

 

This trade that did not happen is just as interesting, imo.  He was fairly certain that the teams immediately ahead of him were out of the RB market but with 8 RBs off the board already he was probably really anxious about somebody jumping ahead of the Bills (a draft day disaster in his mind?) to get Moss and wanted to prevent that from happening.  Enough so as to give up a later round pick to avoid the disaster .  I'd love to know where they had him in their rankings.  They wanted a downhill, physical back and Moss was not only the best left but maybe the last that they had any interest in during the top half of the draft.

 

Kind of weird that he was the 9th taken.  I think DCOrange nailed it.  Moss in the 3rd was what the Bills were hoping for and it almost didn't happen as three others went in the round ahead of him and Beane was probably edging toward the freaking out stage.  

[BillsFan4]

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2020/04/buffalo-bills-nfl-draft-mystery-who-was-brandon-beane-attempting-to-trade-up-for-on-day-3.html

 

Quote

Using this information, let’s try to solve the mystery.

First, day two of the draft is pretty much eliminated. Beane would have noted that they were trying to trade up for a player on Friday if it had occurred on that day. In addition to this, no OL were taken between picks 40-53 in the second round of the draft. Robert Hunt, a potential Bills target, went at 39, but it’s doubtful that he was the target based on Beane mentioning they were looking to trade up just three to four spots.

 

Round 3 is also out of the picture as Beane noted that he was trying to trade up in the third round for Zack Moss.

 

Quote

“It wasn’t gonna be anything crazy,” he said. “But we were talking to teams, maybe even seven ahead of us, for a late Saturday pick. But teams just kept picking and there was a lot of talk about people wanting to get out of there. But then we got there and nobody wanted to get out of the pick.”

 

The Utah back ended up falling into Buffalo’s lap.

 

That leaves us with day three of the draft. To get an idea of the potential target, here is a round-by-round breakdown on possibilities, ties to Buffalo and more.

(continued in link)

 

He does a pretty good job breaking down who it could or couldn’t have been.

 

His best guess:

Quote

It’s unlikely that we will ever find out which OL Beane was targeting, but Stenberg and Muti are the two prospects that make the most sense after using Beane’s hints on the topic.

 

Edited April 29, 2020 by BillsFan4

[GunnerBill]

I think it is quite possible he worked on more than one trade up. The way he spoke about the OL it sounded like that was a day 3 thing. I think Muti makes some sense there. 

 

The speculation on Duvernay seems legit but I guess for reasons others have commented on Beane doesn't want that out there so he didn't mention it.... also possible that he never got close on that deal. He specifically said on the lineman he had agreed the parameters when the guy went right ahead of that pick. 

 

I doubt he is making up the OL story to cover for Duvernay.... just that of the two there is one trade up that didn't happen he doesn't mind having out there (late day 3 position they didn't draft) and one he does (late day 2 and they took a guy in that spot with their first pick of day 3). 

[below]

Logan Stenberg by Detroit in the 4th.