Healthy Skepticism for This Year's Draft Class...

[Straight Hucklebuck]

9 hours ago, HappyDays said:

My main complaint with this draft is we did not take a single o-lineman. Our run blocking especially on the interior was fairly poor last year. Behind Spain and Feliciano we have no developing players, unless you count Bates I guess. I would take an OL and a CB every year because depth is that important.

 

IMO Fromm was a waste of a pick. I have gone back and forth on this and finally settled on the opinion that he doesn't have a role in the modern NFL. You can't be a statue with mediocre arm strength and make a living anymore. The ceiling of a player like that is Matt Ryan - as great a passer as he's been, he is useless without an above average offensive line and you just can't rely on that every year. And it is incredibly unlikely Fromm will reach that ceiling in any case. I know the comparison has been worn out but all I see is Matt Barkley 2.0 which to me is pointless to use a pick on. And the more I read on Fromm he is not really pinpoint accurate like some people have said.

 

The kicker worries me. I expect the job to be his to lose. I don't like the idea of relying on a rookie kicker because if it turns out he can't handle the pressure we're screwed on field goals the rest of the year. Hauschka had a down year but so did just about every kicker and at least with Hauschka we know what we're getting. He's been in pressure situations before. From what I've read about Bass he has a big leg but spotty accurscy. The last thing I want is the field goal version of Corey Bojorquez. I'm not 100% against the pick like I am with Fromm, I just get nervous if he ends up our starter.

 

All that being said I'm very pleased that we used this draft to build up the offense. Last year we had a major lack of talent around Allen, to the point that some Bills fans were tricked into thinking John Brown is a #1 receiver. We once again led the NFL in drops and our only receiver with a big catch radius came from the CFL and was inactive most of the games. Not to mention we gave a 97 year old running back the majority of rushes. So Beane adds 4 skill players (counting Diggs) - 3 receivers with a big catch radius and good hands, 2 of which also have size, and a real complementary RB that we can give the ball to without surrendering the down.

 

I think all of this is fair. I liked the Bills logic and path in this draft, because they have adopted full competition everywhere on offensive. They have reversed course from their 2017-2018 skill position debacles.

 

The structure of the Bills draft would have had to change to accommodate an OL. 

 

Maybe the Bills could have still gone Epenesa in Round 2 because he was BPA, but certainly to get a quality offensive lineman, the pick in the 3rd Round wouldn't have been Moss. Can we really see a 4th Round OLineman getting the reps that Moss will get? 

 

OL in the 3rd shoves RB down to Round 4 or 5, and by that point the WR's were picked over.  

 

That's where you're right about Fromm. Mediocre athlete with a weak arm, the Bills are banking on him being a student of the game. He does sound a lot like Barkley, who fell in the 2013 Draft for the same reasons, weak arm, less than ideal size, despite playing at high level D1 School. 

 

I think a few more more things:

1. The Bills are too thin at Linebacker for my tastes. You get past Edmunds, Milano and Klein, and its Vosean Joseph and ....... I was surprised they couldn't find a way to get a linebacker in this draft. Carter Coughlin lasted until the 7th. Instead of Fromm, were there any LB's available. Troy Dye fell to the 4th, maybe he would have been that linebacker instead of Davis. 

 

2. I think we have to keep in mind how active the Bills have been in FA the last two years. They lost two defensive lineman, but signed 3, and drafted another in the 2nd Round on top of Oliver last year. They lost Kevin Johnson at corner (who stunk anyways), and signed Gaines and Norman (last year out of camp they only kept 4 corners). They added Diggs at WR, and signed another couple offensive lineman in FA. I think they looked at their roster and tried to pick positions where guys would actually stick. 

 

3. On Kicker, for that pick to "work" he needs to beat out Hauschka this year. This Bills did this a few years ago when they took Dustin Hopkins. They didn't have the stomach to ride out the misses and bailed. Now the Redskins have had a decent kicker for years. But I think the Bills were right to flag anything over 50 yards was off the table last year, a problem that got worse and worse. Will the Bills have the stomach to ride out the misses early so this pick makes sense? If they don't it's a wasted 6th Round pick. 

 

 

Edited April 29, 2020 by Straight Hucklebuck

[Doc]

Dawkins is the LT, Morse is the C, and there are a ton of OG's.  The only position they'd be drafting for is RT, and they're still trying to develop Ford there, signed Daryl Williams who was 2nd team All-Pro in 2017 there, and still have Nsekhe.  I don't see where a 4th or later RT had a chance to stick.

[GunnerBill]

26 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

 

3. On Kicker, for that pick to "work" he needs to beat out Hauschka this year. This Bills did this a few years ago when they took Dustin Hopkins. They didn't have the stomach to ride out the misses and bailed. Now the Redskins have had a decent kicker for years. But I think the Bills were right to flag anything over 50 yards was off the table last year, a problem that got worse and worse. Will the Bills have the stomach to ride out the misses early so this pick makes sense? If they don't it's a wasted 6th Round pick. 

 

 

 

Actually Hopkins beat out Lindell in camp and pre-season only then to sustain an injury on the eve of the season. The Bills IR'd him signed Dan Carpenter who came in and had a hell of a year going 33 for 36 on FGs. He was the extended in the spring and beat Hopkins out that next camp. Hopkins spent 2014 basically out of the league but the Saints signed him at the end of that year to the PS and then he lost their kicker battle the next summer but was picked up by Washington where he has had a pretty good career. Meanwhile Carp had another good year here in 2014 but then he and Rex did not get on, Rex kept calling him out in pressers for missing kicks and by that point his confidence was gone and his leg maybe wasn't what it was and he had two poor years before we cut him.

[teef]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Actually Hopkins beat out Lindell in camp and pre-season only then to sustain an injury on the eve of the season. The Bills IR'd him signed Dan Carpenter who came in and had a hell of a year going 33 for 36 on FGs. He was the extended in the spring and beat Hopkins out that next camp. Hopkins spent 2014 basically out of the league but the Saints signed him at the end of that year to the PS and then he lost their kicker battle the next summer but was picked up by Washington where he has had a pretty good career. Meanwhile Carp had another good year here in 2014 but then he and Rex did not get on, Rex kept calling him out in pressers for missing kicks and by that point his confidence was gone and his leg maybe wasn't what it was and he had two poor years before we cut him.

this is some deep kicker knowledge.  i'm impressed.

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, teef said:

this is some deep kicker knowledge.  i'm impressed.

 

Ha I remember being really pleased that Hopkins won the job and then gutted when he got injured. I have always felt he was an unfortunate victim of circumstance here. Had things gone differently he could have been our kicker for a long time. 

[C.Biscuit97]

I think is a very solid if unspectacular draft class.  Things fell nicely for us.  I wanted a pass rusher and while I don’t know if he will ever be an elite one, but AJ will be a solid at worst starter for us for a lot of years.  Moss just runs hard and was a baller at Utah.  Not sure if he will ever be a bellcow rb but he will be good in a combo with DS.  I wanted Claypool or Pittman but I like taking 2 wrs with some physical upside.  
 

worst pick was Fromm.  I actually was on him early because of QB1 and he seems like a really good dude.  But he was a game manager at Georgia and the worst of the 3 qbs they had.  I get why they had to keep him but Fields leaving really hurt them.  Fromm is the “smart” and “hard working” qb that just doesn’t have the physical skills to ever really succeed in the NFL.  I feel like we just drafted a younger Barkley.  But I was generally really happy with it and would give it a B+ (draft grades are dumb).

[Jerboski]

I agree to an extent.. obviously beane is a wizard and knows best but I would have liked to see us make a move in the third or early fourth and grab a different wide receiver... this draft was loaded with WR talent and I'm not convinced the two we snagged are ever going to be big contributors 

[North Buffalo]

Interesting thread and evaluations... Im not as high on Epenesa as some, but he is needed.

Moss I really like. 

The two receivers have talent, but later round receivers can be such a crap shoot so who knows...

Same with CB though seems to be a very good tackler but can he learn to cover better deep through technique

Fromm is interesting but again another crap shoot but worth the pick at that point.  

Kicker if he can become more accurate has a leg.. put him on ps and let him work... Hauska needs competition...

I like Beane et al as talent evals so in this weird draft and UDFAs I hope there are a few diamonds.

I am hopeful but but will keep my powder dry as far as thinking this was a great draft... too many unknowns.

I rate it solid with a chance to be moving much higher.

The Diggs trade calculated in makes very good imo

 

Again offseason hope spring eternal... lets see how the pieces all fit in this weird environment.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

8 minutes ago, Jerboski said:

I agree to an extent.. obviously beane is a wizard and knows best but I would have liked to see us make a move in the third or early fourth and grab a different wide receiver... this draft was loaded with WR talent and I'm not convinced the two we snagged are ever going to be big contributors 

 

Sounds like a lot of the discontent are two things:

 

1. The Bills took a RB in Round 3, not OL or WR. If that's the case, it fits the growing trend that RB's are interchangeable and there is no need to draft them before Round 4. With that said, Moss seemed to be the last of the elite producers. After him, it did seem as if there was a drop off in college production. 

 

2. The Bills took a QB in the 5th who is a long-shot to make it in the NFL, even as a backup QB. But Beane and McDermott have had a blind spot at QB. Drafting Peterman, starting Peterman 2x, acquiring AJ McCarron who flopped, and talking Derek Anderson out of retirement. 

 

In a perfect world you sign Winston, and know you have a capable backup. But we know what that implies, you're spending real money on a backup and it puts Josh on notice. So we don't go that route. Instead, we go with weaker armed, game managers. The Bills have protected their starters (sometimes despite marginal results) for years. What can you do? 

 

After the 5th Round, the Kicker pick was meh, unless he becomes the starting Kicker and can hit 50+ yarders. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 hour ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

 

Sounds like a lot of the discontent are two things:

 

1. The Bills took a RB in Round 3, not OL or WR. If that's the case, it fits the growing trend that RB's are interchangeable and there is no need to draft them before Round 4. With that said, Moss seemed to be the last of the elite producers. After him, it did seem as if there was a drop off in college production. 

 

2. The Bills took a QB in the 5th who is a long-shot to make it in the NFL, even as a backup QB. But Beane and McDermott have had a blind spot at QB. Drafting Peterman, starting Peterman 2x, acquiring AJ McCarron who flopped, and talking Derek Anderson out of retirement. 

 

In a perfect world you sign Winston, and know you have a capable backup. But we know what that implies, you're spending real money on a backup and it puts Josh on notice. So we don't go that route. Instead, we go with weaker armed, game managers. The Bills have protected their starters (sometimes despite marginal results) for years. What can you do? 

 

After the 5th Round, the Kicker pick was meh, unless he becomes the starting Kicker and can hit 50+ yarders. 

 

In a perfect world you sign a guy with 30 INT last season and spend real money on him for a backup?

 

It would seem that pessimism doesn't equate to critical thinking after all.

 

[Big Turk]

On 4/27/2020 at 7:15 PM, glazeduck said:

Firstly, appreciate you being what would appear to be the first to have read my post before responding. 

 

I definitely see the potential in Moss and again, LOVE the way he runs. I guess I just question how dynamic a backfield can be with 2 guys with avg. to below-avg. speed, hopefully all of our smurfs will stretch the defense enough to open some holes.

 

Similar with Hodgins, I'm optimistic, but I just fear he's too limited and stiff to ever really be more than a role player.

 

On Jackson, again, you can't really waste a 7th round pick, so he's worth a shot, I'm just not going to be holding my breath for him to succeed, I don't look at it as likely (although I DO like our track record of developing DBs)

 

Fromm -- I don't see it, hope you're right.

 

I mean I don't know, how dynamic was Singletary who led the NFL RB's with an average of 5.4 YPC last year?  Seemed pretty special to me when he touched the ball enough.

12 hours ago, HappyDays said:

My main complaint with this draft is we did not take a single o-lineman. Our run blocking especially on the interior was fairly poor last year. Behind Spain and Feliciano we have no developing players, unless you count Bates I guess. I would take an OL and a CB every year because depth is that important.

 

IMO Fromm was a waste of a pick. I have gone back and forth on this and finally settled on the opinion that he doesn't have a role in the modern NFL. You can't be a statue with mediocre arm strength and make a living anymore. The ceiling of a player like that is Matt Ryan - as great a passer as he's been, he is useless without an above average offensive line and you just can't rely on that every year. And it is incredibly unlikely Fromm will reach that ceiling in any case. I know the comparison has been worn out but all I see is Matt Barkley 2.0 which to me is pointless to use a pick on. And the more I read on Fromm he is not really pinpoint accurate like some people have said.

 

The kicker worries me. I expect the job to be his to lose. I don't like the idea of relying on a rookie kicker because if it turns out he can't handle the pressure we're screwed on field goals the rest of the year. Hauschka had a down year but so did just about every kicker and at least with Hauschka we know what we're getting. He's been in pressure situations before. From what I've read about Bass he has a big leg but spotty accurscy. The last thing I want is the field goal version of Corey Bojorquez. I'm not 100% against the pick like I am with Fromm, I just get nervous if he ends up our starter.

 

All that being said I'm very pleased that we used this draft to build up the offense. Last year we had a major lack of talent around Allen, to the point that some Bills fans were tricked into thinking John Brown is a #1 receiver. We once again led the NFL in drops and our only receiver with a big catch radius came from the CFL and was inactive most of the games. Not to mention we gave a 97 year old running back the majority of rushes. So Beane adds 4 skill players (counting Diggs) - 3 receivers with a big catch radius and good hands, 2 of which also have size, and a real complementary RB that we can give the ball to without surrendering the down.

 

Well, I dunno.  I have seen some quotes attributed to NFL scouts/execs that say Fromm will likely have more NFL starts than at least one of the top 10 QB's.  So opinions vary.  I do know that before last year he was regarded as a first round pick and potentially #1 overall pick. So things can changed rapidly based on how things evolve.  

 

As far as OL, how many can you have on a team? They are returning the entire OLine and added a few more pieces to it in FA. Is a 5th round pick going to make the roster?  Highly unlikely.

[DeltaDigital]

Everyone sleeping on Gabe Davis... Not sure why. Brandon Marshall, while kind of a douchey player, has THIS to say about him.... 

I think this guy might be special. 2-3 years we'll know for sure. 

I think he beats out duke, and fosters as good as gone after last years BS. 

 

 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

35 minutes ago, DeltaDigital said:

Everyone sleeping on Gabe Davis... Not sure why. Brandon Marshall, while kind of a douchey player, has THIS to say about him....

 

 

One note: Not a douchey player. A guy who has Borderline Personality Disorder. Came to grips with it, sought treatment, worked through it, became a consummate professional and teammate, and used his platform to help reduce the stigma of mental health.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

56 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

In a perfect world you sign a guy with 30 INT last season and spend real money on him for a backup?

 

It would seem that pessimism doesn't equate to critical thinking after all.

 

Because how often is there a situation like the 2020 offseason where a 5,000 yard passer in his prime taken #1 overall is/was available, along with the 2011 #1 overall pick and an MVP winner.

 

Yeah, I would take 30-Int Winston over Barkley, and no I don’t think Allen has proved he is better than Winston. 
 

But the Bills have invested the draft capital in Allen, so that means you go with a non-threatening backup. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Because how often is there a situation like the 2020 offseason where a 5,000 yard passer in his prime taken #1 overall is/was available, along with the 2011 #1 overall pick and an MVP winner.

 

Yeah, I would take 30-Int Winston over Barkley, and no I don’t think Allen has proved he is better than Winston. 
 

But the Bills have invested the draft capital in Allen, so that means you go with a non-threatening backup. 

 

Pardon me for being old fashioned, but 5000 yards doesn't outweigh 30 INTs.

 

That turd can't be polished, and Arians agrees with me, apparently.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Just now, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Pardon me for being old fashioned, but 5000 yards doesn't outweigh 30 INTs.

 

That turd can't be polished, and Arians agrees with me, apparently.

Matt Barkley, 10 career TDs passes verses 21 Interceptions

 

Jameis Winston 121 career TDs passes verses 88 interceptions.

 

Call me old fashioned but Matt Barkley flat out sucks. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Call me old fashioned but Matt Barkley flat out sucks. 

Which is why he's a career backup.

 

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

7 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

Which is why he's a career backup.

 

 

Right, which is why Winston would have been an upgrade at backup QB over Barkley and almost assuredly Fromm.

 

But the Bills are not going to do that number one because he’s a real threat to Allen, and of course the money. 

[Doc]

4 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Right, which is why Winston would have been an upgrade at backup QB over Barkley and almost assuredly Fromm.

 

But the Bills are not going to do that number one because he’s a real threat to Allen, and of course the money. 

He could be the best backup QB for any team in the league. He believes by doing this he’ll be the heir-apparent to Brees. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

6 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Right, which is why Winston would have been an upgrade at backup QB over Barkley and almost assuredly Fromm.

 

But the Bills are not going to do that number one because he’s a real threat to Allen, and of course the money. 

 

Q:

 

If this guy's a gem, just an absolute football treasure, why did the QB whisperer Arians cut bait with him?