Healthy Skepticism for This Year's Draft Class...

[Einstein's Dog]

5 hours ago, teef said:

Or Ruggs was taken as the first wr because the raiders were being the raiders. They’ve often taken guys with top speed.  
 

many teams say the combine won’t sway them much in one direction or the other.  Can it?   Sure, but it tends to blow up in their face. 

Seems to me like Beane has been finding value in pro day drops.  Espensa fell, poor Fromm got crushed for his one bad day.  Last year Singletary took a hit, and this year I think Moss got hurt a little.  Beane keeps the body of work in mind and seems to find some value in over reactions on one poor day.

[skibum]

Moss looks pretty good to me - he has great balance, he knows right where to go to give tacklers no chance, and he runs really hard. He's like a faster version of Freddy Jackson. He also gets his eyes downfield so fast on spins and other dodgy moves. 

 

And I think it's great having him and Singletary split carries - Between Singletary's size and Moss's style, they are both going to need to keep their mileage down. 

[hondo in seattle]

18 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

I assume this is mostly sarcasm?

 

I've been impressed with Beane and mostly like this draft.  But there's an old saying in India, "When a pickpocket walks down the street, all he sees are pockets."  We all tend to see what we're hoping & looking to see.  A hungry guy driving down a street will notice all the restaurants.  A horny hetero guy driving down the street will notice all the ladies.  

 

Bills optimists find things to love about this draft because they're looking for reasons to believe.   On the other hand, I think skeptics can find valid reasons for concern.  

[whatdrought]

I didn’t read this in-depthly, but one thing I’ll mention regarding Moss and minimum athletic standards is that that’s the same argument that was made about Singletary last year and we’ve seen how that’s worked out. I think too much is put on traits where there are some guys who are just dogs that make ***** happen on the field. Epenesa, Moss, and Hodgins all look like that too me. It’s an encouraging draft in that regard because this FO has been widely about traits and athletic monsters in the past, so seeing them being diverse is encouraging as I don’t think it’s an either or game.

[HappyDays]

My main complaint with this draft is we did not take a single o-lineman. Our run blocking especially on the interior was fairly poor last year. Behind Spain and Feliciano we have no developing players, unless you count Bates I guess. I would take an OL and a CB every year because depth is that important.

 

IMO Fromm was a waste of a pick. I have gone back and forth on this and finally settled on the opinion that he doesn't have a role in the modern NFL. You can't be a statue with mediocre arm strength and make a living anymore. The ceiling of a player like that is Matt Ryan - as great a passer as he's been, he is useless without an above average offensive line and you just can't rely on that every year. And it is incredibly unlikely Fromm will reach that ceiling in any case. I know the comparison has been worn out but all I see is Matt Barkley 2.0 which to me is pointless to use a pick on. And the more I read on Fromm he is not really pinpoint accurate like some people have said.

 

The kicker worries me. I expect the job to be his to lose. I don't like the idea of relying on a rookie kicker because if it turns out he can't handle the pressure we're screwed on field goals the rest of the year. Hauschka had a down year but so did just about every kicker and at least with Hauschka we know what we're getting. He's been in pressure situations before. From what I've read about Bass he has a big leg but spotty accurscy. The last thing I want is the field goal version of Corey Bojorquez. I'm not 100% against the pick like I am with Fromm, I just get nervous if he ends up our starter.

 

All that being said I'm very pleased that we used this draft to build up the offense. Last year we had a major lack of talent around Allen, to the point that some Bills fans were tricked into thinking John Brown is a #1 receiver. We once again led the NFL in drops and our only receiver with a big catch radius came from the CFL and was inactive most of the games. Not to mention we gave a 97 year old running back the majority of rushes. So Beane adds 4 skill players (counting Diggs) - 3 receivers with a big catch radius and good hands, 2 of which also have size, and a real complementary RB that we can give the ball to without surrendering the down.

[Cash]

On 4/27/2020 at 7:15 PM, glazeduck said:

Firstly, appreciate you being what would appear to be the first to have read my post before responding. 

 

I definitely see the potential in Moss and again, LOVE the way he runs. I guess I just question how dynamic a backfield can be with 2 guys with avg. to below-avg. speed, hopefully all of our smurfs will stretch the defense enough to open some holes.

 

Similar with Hodgins, I'm optimistic, but I just fear he's too limited and stiff to ever really be more than a role player.

 

On Jackson, again, you can't really waste a 7th round pick, so he's worth a shot, I'm just not going to be holding my breath for him to succeed, I don't look at it as likely (although I DO like our track record of developing DBs)

 

Fromm -- I don't see it, hope you're right.

Thurman’s speed was average. Burst/acceleration was great, but there was no breakaway speed there. Just saying. 

[GunnerBill]

39 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

My main complaint with this draft is we did not take a single o-lineman. Our run blocking especially on the interior was fairly poor last year. Behind Spain and Feliciano we have no developing players, unless you count Bates I guess. I would take an OL and a CB every year because depth is that important.

 

IMO Fromm was a waste of a pick. I have gone back and forth on this and finally settled on the opinion that he doesn't have a role in the modern NFL. You can't be a statue with mediocre arm strength and make a living anymore. The ceiling of a player like that is Matt Ryan - as great a passer as he's been, he is useless without an above average offensive line and you just can't rely on that every year. And it is incredibly unlikely Fromm will reach that ceiling in any case. I know the comparison has been worn out but all I see is Matt Barkley 2.0 which to me is pointless to use a pick on. And the more I read on Fromm he is not really pinpoint accurate like some people have said.

 

The kicker worries me. I expect the job to be his to lose. I don't like the idea of relying on a rookie kicker because if it turns out he can't handle the pressure we're screwed on field goals the rest of the year. Hauschka had a down year but so did just about every kicker and at least with Hauschka we know what we're getting. He's been in pressure situations before. From what I've read about Bass he has a big leg but spotty accurscy. The last thing I want is the field goal version of Corey Bojorquez. I'm not 100% against the pick like I am with Fromm, I just get nervous if he ends up our starter.

 

All that being said I'm very pleased that we used this draft to build up the offense. Last year we had a major lack of talent around Allen, to the point that some Bills fans were tricked into thinking John Brown is a #1 receiver. We once again led the NFL in drops and our only receiver with a big catch radius came from the CFL and was inactive most of the games. Not to mention we gave a 97 year old running back the majority of rushes. So Beane adds 4 skill players (counting Diggs) - 3 receivers with a big catch radius and good hands, 2 of which also have size, and a real complementary RB that we can give the ball to without surrendering the down.

 

If Fromm is Matt Ryan I would jump for freaking joy. Matt Ryan has been a top half dozen QB for about a dozen years. I am not sure Fromm has close to that ceiling to be honest with you. I disagree that you can't be a pocket Quarterback with mediocre arm strength. Cincinnati better hope that isn't true anyway because while Burrow is certainly a lot better than Fromm he is a pocket QB with mediocre arm strength. You just have to be more accurate on more routes than Fromm is. I don't think Fromm's problem is his style. It is his ability. He could still have a good career as a backup though. Matt Barkley is the closest I have as a comparison but a shorter version of Trevor Siemian works too.

[Lurker]

12 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I've been impressed with Beane and mostly like this draft.  But there's an old saying in India, "When a pickpocket walks down the street, all he sees are pockets."  We all tend to see what we're hoping & looking to see.  A hungry guy driving down a street will notice all the restaurants.  A horny hetero guy driving down the street will notice all the ladies.  

 

Bills optimists find things to love about this draft because they're looking for reasons to believe.   On the other hand, I think skeptics can find valid reasons for concern.  

 

Man I can only wonder what street you've been driving down.  You might be the only person in America -- Bills fan or otherwise -- to just see warts on these guys and not the complimentary nature of how they fit into the roster and bring skill sets that we didn't have or can take advantage of.

 

Other than the Fromm and Bass picks, I think there is a great deal to work with in this draft class.   There are other ways to continue plugging holes at o-line or DB (post-draft and June 1st cuts of veterans, modest trades for depth players, etc.).    There's only a few depth positions left to fill and the Bills are in good shape already...

[Lurker]

15 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Round 3.  Moss.  The three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust era is long gone.  In the modern NFL, you need chunk plays to score.  Yet, with the Moss pick, Beane seems intent on making sure the Bills backfield is entirely devoid of breakaway speed.  Grade D.  

 

Moss ran a 4.52 at his pro day.    For comparison, D'Andre Swift ran a 4.48, Cam Akers ran a 4.47, A.J. Dillon ran a 4.53.   Nick Chubb, a guy I think is very similar to Moss, ran a 4.53 at the combine.    Frank Gore, another good comp, ran a 4.58.

 

I posted this in another thread, but the "mystery player" I compared Moss to turned out pretty well for the Bills once upon a time...

 

                               Mystery Player                          Zach Moss               

 

40 Yard Dash:                4.47           seconds              4.52
20 Yard Split:                 2.59           seconds              2.63
10 Yard Split:                 1.61           seconds              1.60
Bench Press:                 13 reps       (225 lb)                19 reps

Vertical Leap:                33.0              inches               33.0

Broad Jump:               114.0              inches                N/A

20 Yd Shuttle:               4.21             seconds             4.37

 

Height:                           69.9               inches               70.0

Weight:                           198              pounds                222

Hand Size:                     8.75              inches                9.25

BMI:                              29.18                                       32.62

 

[Chandler#81]

In a word, this LAMP thread sucks.

OP goes out his way disclaiming he doesn’t know shart from shinola, then proceeds to arbitrarily bash the entire Bills Draft, tossing out D-‘s, Pass & Incomplete's. He had no cred coming in and now likely never will. 

Y-Gen or Why Generation?

goddam punks!

 

On 4/27/2020 at 8:56 PM, Rc2catch said:

Here’s the simplicity of this draft. 
We got Diggs and moss who can contribute immediately and fill the two positions we had to have. 
This is the first draft in how long that we did not HAVE to depend on the rookie class to produce out of the gate?? Every year we need a rookie starter to come in and play above his experience level because we just don’t have the roster or depth. We don’t need that this year. We don’t need to  judge the class quickly because in all honesty we don’t need any of those guys to produce year one (barring injuries) 

This is the first class in as long as I can remember that we actually don’t need to produce in year one. Moss and Diggs are the only two that should really be involved that much to really make a difference. Espenesa will be in rotation and hopefully have some production. Everyone else is kinda long term progression. Rather any of us like the picks or not it’s going to be hard to see these guys play (barring injuries) 

We drafted pretty smart on the long term effect of things and now have replacements for some aging vets. If the rookie class works out it will be really easy to move on from the likes of jerry Hughes and John brown and Barkley etc etc in the future. We don’t need most of these kids this year, just need them to digest their playbooks and get used to the life as a professional and be ready when it’s their time to shine. Talk about a no pressure situation. 

Add in Epenesa and possibly PK. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:

In a word, this LAMP thread sucks.

OP goes out his way disclaiming he doesn’t know shart from shinola, then proceeds to arbitrarily bash the entire Bills Draft, tossing out D-‘s, Pass & Incomplete's. He had no cred coming in and now likely never will. 

Y-Gen or Why Generation?

goddam punks!

 

Add in Epenesa and possibly PK. 

 

 

Are you moaning about the young people again Chandler? Have they been on your lawn? 

[Chandler#81]

Whippersnappers! Haven’t they heard about social distancing-as in GETOFFMYLAWN!

[billsfan1959]

I think the one thing I am most skeptical about this draft is that Bills fans will be able to learn to consistently spell Epenesa's name right.

 

I have already spelled it Espensa, Espenesa, and Epenessa. WTF?

 

Maybe I'll just stick with A.J.

[Blokestradamus]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

He could still have a good career as a backup though. Matt Barkley is the closest I have as a comparison but a shorter version of Trevor Siemian works too.

 

I'm not sure how complimentary it is but I ended up with TJ Yates as a comparison with Fromm. I did toy with the idea of both of the guys you mentioned though.

[GunnerBill]

33 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

I think the one thing I am most skeptical about this draft is that Bills fans will be able to learn to consistently spell Epenesa's name right.

 

I have already spelled it Espensa, Espenesa, and Epenessa. WTF?

 

Maybe I'll just stick with A.J.

 

And I feel like Hodgins as opposed to Hodgkins is gonna catch a few out too.

Just now, Blokestradamus said:

 

I'm not sure how complimentary it is but I ended up with TJ Yates as a comparison with Fromm. I did toy with the idea of both of the guys you mentioned though.

 

You lie. You are sure how complimentary it is - not very!

[Blokestradamus]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

You lie. You are sure how complimentary it is - not very!

 

Having been the sole witness to my take on another draft pick, I thought I'd try to be diplomatic

[CNYfan]

I think in Epanesa, Moss and the CB7 McBeane injected extra toughness into the roster.   These guys one common trait is a strong, mean and tough attitude they bring to the gridiron.  

 

While I have my hesitation concerning DL#2,  I can see where the opposition will never be in for an easy pain free Sunday.   These guys bring a hard hitting theme  to the draft.

[ElMarko]

I hope you remember to post “I was wrong” later this year. Oh, and Dane Jackson, your D grade 7th round pick is going to make the team. 

[DCOrange]

6 hours ago, Lurker said:

 

Moss ran a 4.52 at his pro day.    For comparison, D'Andre Swift ran a 4.48, Cam Akers ran a 4.47, A.J. Dillon ran a 4.53.   Nick Chubb, a guy I think is very similar to Moss, ran a 4.53 at the combine.    Frank Gore, another good comp, ran a 4.58.

 

I posted this in another thread, but the "mystery player" I compared Moss to turned out pretty well for the Bills once upon a time...

 

                               Mystery Player                          Zach Moss               

 

40 Yard Dash:                4.47           seconds              4.52
20 Yard Split:                 2.59           seconds              2.63
10 Yard Split:                 1.61           seconds              1.60
Bench Press:                 13 reps       (225 lb)                19 reps

Vertical Leap:                33.0              inches               33.0

Broad Jump:               114.0              inches                N/A

20 Yd Shuttle:               4.21             seconds             4.37

 

Height:                           69.9               inches               70.0

Weight:                           198              pounds                222

Hand Size:                     8.75              inches                9.25

BMI:                              29.18                                       32.62

 

I don't think it particularly matters as speed really isn't all that important in a RB (unless their game relies on bouncing everything outside, which is probably not a good idea to begin with), but I would bet if someone takes Moss' pro day video frame by frame, it's probably about a 4.60 40 just like he timed at the Combine. And again, that's fine, but it almost certainly was not the 4.52 that it was reported as. And to be fair, the Combine time may have been off slightly as well; I don't really care enough to download the videos and do it frame-by-frame.

[Lurker]

27 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I don't think it particularly matters as speed really isn't all that important in a RB (unless their game relies on bouncing everything outside, which is probably not a good idea to begin with), but I would bet if someone takes Moss' pro day video frame by frame, it's probably about a 4.60 40 just like he timed at the Combine. And again, that's fine, but it almost certainly was not the 4.52 that it was reported as. And to be fair, the Combine time may have been off slightly as well; I don't really care enough to download the videos and do it frame-by-frame.

 

Agreed on speed.   There are many, many RBs that fall into that 4.5 to 4.6 range, with Chubb being a good contemporaneous comparable.    Like Moss, he's a one cut runner who uses other elements of the RB tool kit to be effective.

 

And I don't think we need to go all Zapruder with the video either.    That just seems way too anal unless we're the one's signing the paychecks...