Healthy Skepticism for This Year's Draft Class...

[John from Riverside]

7 hours ago, Rampage said:

Fromm's going to make the roster, he's too good of a developmental QB with a chance to be "the guy" should Allen falter for him not too.

Make no mistake about it

if Allen were to falter we would be dreading another Qi high

 

he won’t though

[ganesh]

9 hours ago, glazeduck said:

3. Here's where my skepticism really kicks in.  I love the way that Zach Moss runs, if the Terminator was a RB, I imagine they'd have very comparable styles. But I'm a big proponent of there being minimum thresholds of athleticism that one needs to perform at their relative position, and have seen some who feel that Moss doesn't meet those minimums. Only time will tell, but it's a concern (that builds into a larger concern, as mentioned be low)... They liked him, obviously, wanting to move up to get him, so I'll gladly be wrong here, but am nervous... Working on the theme above, would've loved to have been able to swoop in and take Mims before the Jets could've. Another big, athletic playmaker who opens up other avenues for the offense or Bryan Edwards.  Incomplete

On that highlight reel someone posted,  Moss outran an entire defense for 90 yards before being tackled in the end zone.    That is awesome athleticism. 

[GunnerBill]

I stopped reading at Claypool and Mims. One of my favourite things about the draft is that we didn't take either of that pair. We know the Bills didn't have a 2nd round grade on Mims and nor did I. Claypool was already gone so less clear what they thought of him. 

 

OP does have a point that this is not an exciting draft class. It is safe and solid. But exciting isn't always good.  

[Straight Hucklebuck]

10 hours ago, glazeduck said:

Separation is about a lot more than just explosion, it's ankle and hip agility, it's setting up CBs, it's knowing how to run routes against man v zone, hand placement/fighting, etc. This is why most GMs don't take too much away from the combine, literally no one in the NFL has ever run a straight line in shorts, unguarded in a game.

 

Hodgins had a hard time creating separation against a lot of middling-to-bad DBs in the P12. He's going to have his work cut out for him against NFL CBs. 

I call BS on this.

 

A lot of Coaches and GMs say they don’t take much away from the Combine.

 

But then Henry Ruggs is the first WR taken ahead of a great route runner, why? 4.27.

 

Then Trey Adams isn’t drafted. Why? Because he posted a 5.62 and other ghastly numbers. 

[teef]

7 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I call BS on this.

 

A lot of Coaches and GMs say they don’t take much away from the Combine.

 

But then Henry Ruggs is the first WR taken ahead of a great route runner, why? 4.27.

 

Then Trey Adams isn’t drafted. Why? Because he posted a 5.62 and other ghastly numbers. 

Or Ruggs was taken as the first wr because the raiders were being the raiders. They’ve often taken guys with top speed.  
 

many teams say the combine won’t sway them much in one direction or the other.  Can it?   Sure, but it tends to blow up in their face. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Just now, teef said:

Or Ruggs was taken as the first wr because the raiders were being the raiders. They’ve often taken guys with top speed.  
 

many teams say the combine won’t sway them much in one direction or the other.  Can it?   Sure, but it tends to blow up in their face. 

They’re all there with their little notebooks, pencils and stop watches every year. 

[GunnerBill]

10 hours ago, glazeduck said:

Separation is about a lot more than just explosion, it's ankle and hip agility, it's setting up CBs, it's knowing how to run routes against man v zone, hand placement/fighting, etc. This is why most GMs don't take too much away from the combine, literally no one in the NFL has ever run a straight line in shorts, unguarded in a game.

 

Hodgins had a hard time creating separation against a lot of middling-to-bad DBs in the P12. He's going to have his work cut out for him against NFL CBs. 

 

Agreed it is about more than explosion. It is about explosion, technique (especially at the line) and route running. It is true that neither Davis nor Hodgins were big separation guys in college. Neither has elite speed (though once he is long striding Davis is certainly quick enough).

 

The reason I worry more about Hodgins separating than I do about Davis is because when I watch Davis his technique at the line can definitely be improved and his route running lacks precision. Those are both very coachable and the Bills don't need him to start year one so they can bring him along in those regards while having him rotate in for certain plays and be their special teams gunner (which I think he will be from pretty much day 1). When I watch Hodgins..... that guy can run a route. After Jerry Jeudy he is pretty much as precise of a route runner as there is in the class, and yet he still didn't really separate in college. If I can make Davis better at the line and more precise running routes I think I can find an extra yard of separation in his game on most routes. How do I find that extra yard with Hodgins? Where does that incremental improvement come from? I think Hodgins could have a role on this team but it will likely be redzone only. Where the spaces are tighter in any event and so his ability to "go get it" makes him stand out. Is that a special enough skill for a roster spot? I know the overwhelming consensus among Bills fans will be "yes" I am a little more on the fence.

Edited April 28, 2020 by GunnerBill

[teef]

4 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

They’re all there with their little notebooks, pencils and stop watches every year. 

Yeah...good response. 
 

if you listen to coaches and staff, they often tell you the game tape is what they make their decisions on.  Combines are a good way to meet, interact and get to know the players. If you set your board based mostly in combine results, you’re likely in trouble.  Are all of the measurables looked at?  Sure. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agreed it is about more than explosion. It is about explosion, technique (especially at the line) and route running. It is true that neither Davis nor Hodgins were big separation guys in college. Neither has elite speed (though once he is long striding Davis is certainly quick enough).

 

The reason I worry more about Hodgins separating than I do about Davis is because when I watch Davis his technique at the line can definitely be improved and his route running lacks precision. Those are both very coachable and the Bills don't need him to start year one so they can bring him along in those regards while having him rotate in for certain plays and be their special teams gunner (which I think he will be from pretty much day 1). When I watch Hodgins..... that guy can run a route. After Jerry Jeudy he is pretty much as precise of a route runner as there is in the class, and yet he still didn't really separate in college. If I can make Davis better at the line and more precise running routes I think I can find an extra yard of separation in his game on most routes. How do I find that extra yard with Hodgins? Where does that incremental improvement come from? I think Hodgins could have a role on this team but it will likely be redzone only. Where the spaces are tighter in any event and so his ability to "go get it" makes him stand out. Is that a special enough skill for a roster spot? I know the overwhelming consensus among Bills fans will be "yes" I am a little more on the fence.

It’s a late 6th Round pick, if he’s David Nelson for a year or two than so be it.

 

I think part of the thinking is competition amongst the lower level WRs to see if that portion of the roster can be improved. Let’s throw two guys in there that improved every year of college and had 25 TDs between them. 

 

Every week last year it someone new - Isaiah McKenzie jet sweeps then he’d be inactive the next week, when is Foster getting out of the dog house, where is Duke Williams, can Andre Roberts be a real WR. 

And that WR that fans wanted, Antonio Gables Golden? He was 6’4” too and his first flag was speed, speed, speed. Not too many Moss’s out there. 

[Billy Claude]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agreed it is about more than explosion. It is about explosion, technique (especially at the line) and route running. It is true that neither Davis nor Hodgins were big separation guys in college. Neither has elite speed (though once he is long striding Davis is certainly quick enough).

 

The reason I worry more about Hodgins separating than I do about Davis is because when I watch Davis his technique at the line can definitely be improved and his route running lacks precision. Those are both very coachable and the Bills don't need him to start year one so they can bring him along in those regards while having him rotate in for certain plays and be their special teams gunner (which I think he will be from pretty much day 1). When I watch Hodgins..... that guy can run a route. After Jerry Jeudy he is pretty much as precise of a route runner as there is in the class, and yet he still didn't really separate in college. If I can make Davis better at the line and more precise running routes I think I can find an extra yard of separation in his game on most routes. How do I find that extra yard with Hodgins? Where does that incremental improvement come from? I think Hodgins could have a role on this team but it will likely be redzone only. Where the spaces are tighter in any event and so his ability to "go get it" makes him stand out. Is that a special enough skill for a roster spot? I know the overwhelming consensus among Bills fans will be "yes" I am a little more on the fence.

 

The voice of reason as always.   There must be something Hodgind is not good at otherwise he would not have been available in the 6th round.   I understand fan optimism, however, if you read the board you would think that its 100% certain that he will make the team and 50% chance he will be starting in a few years.

 

For what its worth (which is not very much) it appears to be a good draft but nothing wrong with a little skepticism.

 

[GunnerBill]

33 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

And that WR that fans wanted, Antonio Gables Golden? He was 6’4” too and his first flag was speed, speed, speed. Not too many Moss’s out there. 

 

Gandy-Golden, yea. He isn't fast either - ran a 4.60 at the combine - and looks definitely slower than Davis on tape. He has drops issues too. The thing you can say for the two guys the Bills took is they both have good hands.

[DCOrange]

12 hours ago, familykwi said:

The one thing that I find curious is the organization's stated need to acquire touchdown makers, yet the characteristic that all of these picks share is average to below athleticism.  I'm all for have a tough and smart team, but if we are going to become a more potent offense, or a defense that makes bigger plays, we need guys that stress the opponent.

 

It's not that I don't like the values we found, but I am a little concerned.

 

Just putting it out there.

  

12 hours ago, glazeduck said:

This was part of what I was trying to get at. It feels like this draft was "safe" in a lot of respects, as opposed to pushing for new/different elements to the team.

 

Moss could certainly help on the goal line, as could Hodgins, potentially, but this is now 2 drafts in a row we've opted for tougher, older-school football players, rather than more dynamic athletes... Which, in today's NFL, is definitely an interesting decision...

I don't really agree with this. Time will tell, but I think you can clearly see where Beane would say he did indeed add touchdown makers. Moss had 39 TDs the last 3 years, one of if not the highest elusive ratings to come around in a very long time, and had the second most average yards after contact of any RB in the class. Between his power in short-yardage situations and his ability to bounce off people and pick up big chunks, I'm sure Beane thinks he is indeed a touchdown maker.

 

As far as the WRs go, before this draft we had no size. Diggs is very good at making contested catches despite his size, but we had three good WRs that generally win with their quickness and speed. Davis and Hodgins bring us a different element with their size. Davis had the 2nd highest average depth of target in the class; he was pretty much purely a deep ball guy in college and recorded 19 TDs the last two years. Between his size, his deep ball ability, and his TD production, I'm sure Beane would consider him to be a touchdown maker and he definitely fits a different mold from our other WRs.

 

Hodgins even moreso, as he gives us a big bodied red zone target that we didn't have on the roster before. With his size, body control, and hands, he dominated in the red zone in college, making him a potential touchdown maker.

  

12 hours ago, Turbo44 said:

why would we assume Hodgins with have problems separating in the NFL. His 20 td split time (which equates to quickness from a standing position) was best of any WR at the combine. Please elaborate?

He struggled pretty badly to create separation against college athletes. There's no reason to think he won't have problems separating in the NFL.

[Lurker]

I think Hodgins has a chance to carve out a role as a third down or red zone specialist, despite his limitations.   Jump balls, back shoulder and sideline throws are all something he can win due to his length and hands, even if there's good DB coverage.   

 

It will be a big leap for him to deal with the speed of the NFL, but he seems like a smart kid with a high football IQ.   I give him a much better chance than Foster, Duke Williams, Ray Ray, et al...

[noacls]

12 hours ago, Lurker said:

While a RB is a lot more than the sum of their measureables, guess who the mystery player (former Bill) is versus Moss...

 

                               Mystery Player                          Zach Moss               

 

40 Yard Dash:                4.47           seconds              4.52
20 Yard Split:                 2.59           seconds              2.63
10 Yard Split:                 1.61           seconds              1.60
Bench Press:                 13 reps       (225 lb)                19 reps

Vertical Leap:                33.0              inches               33.0

Broad Jump:               114.0              inches                N/A

20 Yd Shuttle:               4.21             seconds             4.37

 

Height:                           69.9               inches               70.0

Weight:                           198              pounds                222

Hand Size:                     8.75              inches                9.25

BMI:                              29.18                                       32.62

Not sure what your point is here?

[Don Otreply]

14 hours ago, DCOrange said:

I think it’s realistic to not expect all of the picks to hit even if I personally liked almost all of the picks. 
 

Regarding Moss though, he’s more athletic than Singletary and obviously Singletary played quite well as a rookie. 

As you said Singletary performed really well as a rookie, showing that top end speed at running back is not the end all, so having Moss doing what he can do in tandem with Devon is not in any way going to hinder the offense, the OP is assigning values incorrectly imo. 

[hondo in seattle]

If you're going to do skepticism, GD, do it right.  Don't start your post with two enthusiastic A grades.  

 

Round 1.  Diggs.  A good GM can find an impact player in the first round.  Instead Beane got an impact player by trading his first round pick away.  The difference?   A draftee gets a modest rookie contract and Diggs is getting paid $12m per year.  More bonehead moves like this and Beane will quickly return us to Cap Hell.  Grade D.

 

Round 2.  Epenesa.  An edge rusher that lacks the burst to get around the edge.  We used a second round pick to get another Shaq Lawson.  Grade D.  

 

Round 3.  Moss.  The three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust era is long gone.  In the modern NFL, you need chunk plays to score.  Yet, with the Moss pick, Beane seems intent on making sure the Bills backfield is entirely devoid of breakaway speed.  Grade D.  

 

Round 4.  Davis.  While there's a lot to like about Josh Allen, pinpoint accuracy isn't one of them.  So Bean drafts a guy who will struggle to gain separation at the NFL level?  This is hard to understand.  Grade F.

 

Round 5.  Fromm.  Although he was an accomplished college signal caller, this guy's biggest contributions to the greater Buffalo community will be the 'Jake from' jokes.  Beane picked a QB who lacks NFL arm strength when Buffalo is the windiest city in the NFL.  Grade D.    

 

Round 6.  Bass.  Excellent college kicker who will fail to beat out Hauschka and won't make the team.  But maybe drafting Bass pushes the incumbent to improve a little?  Grade D.  

 

Round 6.  Hodgins.  Another wideout who can't separate - just what Josh needs.  Grade F.    

 

Round 7.  Jackson.  4.57 forty time.  No ball awareness.  Classic camp fodder.  But, hell, it's the 7th round.  Grade C.  

 

Besides WRs who can separate, what Josh needs is a better OL to protect him and better TEs.  Yet Beane didn't draft anyone to upgrade those position groups.  Not a good draft, says the skeptic.  

Edited April 28, 2020 by hondo in seattle

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

16 hours ago, glazeduck said:

Firstly, appreciate you being what would appear to be the first to have read my post before responding. 

 

I definitely see the potential in Moss and again, LOVE the way he runs. I guess I just question how dynamic a backfield can be with 2 guys with avg. to below-avg. speed, hopefully all of our smurfs will stretch the defense enough to open some holes.

 

Similar with Hodgins, I'm optimistic, but I just fear he's too limited and stiff to ever really be more than a role player.

 

On Jackson, again, you can't really waste a 7th round pick, so he's worth a shot, I'm just not going to be holding my breath for him to succeed, I don't look at it as likely (although I DO like our track record of developing DBs)

 

Fromm -- I don't see it, hope you're right.

 

With regards to Fromm - Barkley stinks.  So He doesn't even need to be very good to make the roster IMO.  

[KD in CA]

So all the picks after the second round couple are a crap shot.  You don't say.

[Doc]

21 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

If you're going to do skepticism, GD, do it right.  Don't start your post with two enthusiastic A grades.  

 

Round 1.  Diggs.  A good GM can find an impact player in the first round.  Instead Beane got an impact player by trading his first round pick away.  The difference?   A draftee gets a modest rookie contract and Diggs is getting paid $12m per year.  More bonehead moves like this and Beane will quickly return us to Cap Hell.  Grade D.

 

Round 2.  Epenesa.  An edge rusher that lacks the burst to get around the edge.  We used a second round pick to get another Shaq Lawson.  Grade D.  

 

Round 3.  Moss.  The three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust era is long gone.  In the modern NFL, you need chunk plays to score.  Yet, with the Moss pick, Beane seems intent on making sure the Bills backfield is entirely devoid of breakaway speed.  Grade D.  

 

Round 4.  Davis.  While there's a lot to like about Josh Allen, pinpoint accuracy isn't one of them.  So Bean drafts a guy who will struggle to gain separation at the NFL level?  This is hard to understand.  Grade F.

 

Round 5.  Fromm.  Although he was an accomplished college signal caller, this guy's biggest contributions to the greater Buffalo community will be the 'Jake from' jokes.  Beane picked a QB who lacks NFL arm strength when Buffalo is the windiest city in the NFL.  Grade D.    

 

Round 6.  Bass.  Excellent college kicker who will fail to beat out Hauschka and won't make the team.  But maybe drafting Bass pushes the incumbent to improve a little?  Grade D.  

 

Round 6.  Hodgins.  Another wideout who can't separate - just what Josh needs.  Grade F.    

 

Round 7.  Jackson.  4.57 forty time.  No ball awareness.  Classic camp fodder.  But, hell, it's the 7th round.  Grade C.  

 

Besides WRs who can separate, what Josh needs is a better OL to protect him and better TEs.  Yet Beane didn't draft anyone to upgrade those position groups.  Not a good draft, says the skeptic.  

 

I assume this is mostly sarcasm?

[Green Lightning]

This was a solid draft that filled in most of the blanks it needed to fill. We're just not used to having a solid roster to start with!