It's not just Allen under the microscope this year, so is Daboll

[stuvian]

I'm sure Daboll is keeping his CV handy for a reunion with Frank Gore once the Jets annual head coach vacancy opens up later this year

[Alphadawg7]

My thoughts:

 

Daboll has a lot to prove as OC still.  He has flashed brilliance at times and utter stupidity at others, and unfortunately those stupid moments have often come at critical moments of games.  

 

Daboll strikes me as someone who cares more about being viewed as a genius than he does at making sound decisions in those moments.  Feels like he outsmarts himself at moments where he just needs to call a good play.  Running a draw with a 35 year old RB at a moment he thinks no one would expect him to run a draw (because its utterly stupid) is a good example, and one he's unfortunately on several occasions.  

 

I have been up and down with him.  But the on thing I will say...I think he finally has the personnel to do better with his system.  Adding in Diggs is an obvious major impact because its not just about Diggs.  John Brown no longer will draw the top coverage.  You got elite speed on the outside, elite quickness in the slot in Cole, an athletic TE that can pressure the middle and seams, and now a run game that should be dominant between a young stud in Devin, Allen as a major threat to run as a QB, and now Moss who has substantial potential.  All with our OL staying in tact with more depth.  

 

So I agree, I think Daboll is going to be on a make or break season personally.  If the offense isn't taking the steps it should with this roster, he may be replaced.  If he has great success like I think we will, he is a top HC candidate next year without question.

[GunnerBill]

Daboll is certainly under more scrutiny because we have now finally given him the tools to produce a productive offense. If he isn't top half of the league he will be replaced (and should be). If he is top 10 he will get a Head Coach job (and probably deservedly). The window for him still being with the Bills as OC in 2021 is quite a narrow one IMO. It is somewhere between 11th and 17th best offense in the NFL and Josh taking another step.

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

Daboll is certainly under more scrutiny because we have now finally given him the tools to produce a productive offense. If he isn't top half of the league he will be replaced (and should be). If he is top 10 he will get a Head Coach job (and probably deservedly). The window for him still being with the Bills as OC in 2021 is quite a narrow one IMO. It is somewhere between 11th and 17th best offense in the NFL and Josh taking another step.

 

Totally agree with all this

[FireChans]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Daboll is certainly under more scrutiny because we have now finally given him the tools to produce a productive offense. If he isn't top half of the league he will be replaced (and should be). If he is top 10 he will get a Head Coach job (and probably deservedly). The window for him still being with the Bills as OC in 2021 is quite a narrow one IMO. It is somewhere between 11th and 17th best offense in the NFL and Josh taking another step.

Being the OC who “fixed” Josh Allen, a super polarizing QB prospect, would be quite the feather. 

 

I could see the Chargers take a good long look at him this offseason once they get an excuse to jettison Lynn.

[BarleyNY]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Daboll is certainly under more scrutiny because we have now finally given him the tools to produce a productive offense. If he isn't top half of the league he will be replaced (and should be). If he is top 10 he will get a Head Coach job (and probably deservedly). The window for him still being with the Bills as OC in 2021 is quite a narrow one IMO. It is somewhere between 11th and 17th best offense in the NFL and Josh taking another step.

I don’t necessarily disagree with your thoughts, but I don’t think anything concerning Daboll trumps the impending financial decision on Allen.  I think Daboll has done better than most here give him credit for.  Execution has been a bigger problem than his game planning and play calling even though he’s certainly made some mistakes.

 

The real issue is that Daboll isn’t due a huge financial and cap commitment soon.  In March the Bills will have to decide whether or not to exercise Allen’s fifth year option.  It’s important to note that he will be in the first class of players who the new rules will apply to.  Fifth year options will be fully guaranteed when executed and the salary calculation will be more favorable for Allen than in the past.

 

If the offense doesn’t improve this season then I can see Allen and Daboll paying the price and I can see Allen paying the price, but I don’t see just Daboll paying it.  We’d do what in that last case?  Bring in a new OC to work with Allen for one season and then make a decision on whether or not to pay Allen?  That’s tough.  It’s possible that it could happen, but it’d be a really tough situation for everyone.  

[Mango]

35 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I don’t necessarily disagree with your thoughts, but I don’t think anything concerning Daboll trumps the impending financial decision on Allen.  I think Daboll has done better than most here give him credit for.  Execution has been a bigger problem than his game planning and play calling even though he’s certainly made some mistakes.

 

The real issue is that Daboll isn’t due a huge financial and cap commitment soon.  In March the Bills will have to decide whether or not to exercise Allen’s fifth year option.  It’s important to note that he will be in the first class of players who the new rules will apply to.  Fifth year options will be fully guaranteed when executed and the salary calculation will be more favorable for Allen than in the past.

 

If the offense doesn’t improve this season then I can see Allen and Daboll paying the price and I can see Allen paying the price, but I don’t see just Daboll paying it.  We’d do what in that last case?  Bring in a new OC to work with Allen for one season and then make a decision on whether or not to pay Allen?  That’s tough.  It’s possible that it could happen, but it’d be a really tough situation for everyone.  

I think Allen has to fall off a cliff to not get his 5th year, as he probably should. I say that as a guy who has been critical of him at times. That said, if Allen doesn’t show another large leap in his consistency and effectiveness from the pocket, the staff will find somebody else to give it a go. It isn’t one year, it is two. Allen is headed into his third season. Buffalo will have to make the decision before he starts his 4th.  

[BarleyNY]

7 hours ago, Mango said:

I think Allen has to fall off a cliff to not get his 5th year, as he probably should. I say that as a guy who has been critical of him at times. That said, if Allen doesn’t show another large leap in his consistency and effectiveness from the pocket, the staff will find somebody else to give it a go. It isn’t one year, it is two. Allen is headed into his third season. Buffalo will have to make the decision before he starts his 4th.  

I agree that Allen will almost certainly (and should) get four years to prove himself, but the Bills can give him that without exercising his 5th year option.  If he regresses or stays the same then I definitely don’t think he gets it.  If he takes a big leap forward I think he definitely does.

 

But if he just makes a small improvement, then I really don’t know.  I’d guess that they’d punt and give him year 4 as the starter, but not exercise the option.  There’s always a tag.  Or they could give him a big sign of confidence and exercise it.  The big downside of that is that they will know if he’s the guy or not after four seasons and if he’s not, then they’d be stuck paying him close to $25M for year 5.  Let’s hope he lights it up and makes the decision easy.  

[GunnerBill]

40 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I agree that Allen will almost certainly (and should) get four years to prove himself, but the Bills can give him that without exercising his 5th year option.  If he regresses or stays the same then I definitely don’t think he gets it.  If he takes a big leap forward I think he definitely does.

 

But if he just makes a small improvement, then I really don’t know.  I’d guess that they’d punt and give him year 4 as the starter, but not exercise the option.  There’s always a tag.  Or they could give him a big sign of confidence and exercise it.  The big downside of that is that they will know if he’s the guy or not after four seasons and if he’s not, then they’d be stuck paying him close to $25M for year 5.  Let’s hope he lights it up and makes the decision easy.  

 

I think small improvement he gets the option picked up. To be honest I think anything other than regression he gets the option picked up. Not saying it is necessarily what I'd do but I think it is what the Bills will do.

[Mango]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

I agree that Allen will almost certainly (and should) get four years to prove himself, but the Bills can give him that without exercising his 5th year option.  If he regresses or stays the same then I definitely don’t think he gets it.  If he takes a big leap forward I think he definitely does.

 

But if he just makes a small improvement, then I really don’t know.  I’d guess that they’d punt and give him year 4 as the starter, but not exercise the option.  There’s always a tag.  Or they could give him a big sign of confidence and exercise it.  The big downside of that is that they will know if he’s the guy or not after four seasons and if he’s not, then they’d be stuck paying him close to $25M for year 5.  Let’s hope he lights it up and makes the decision easy.  

He’s a top 10 pick, the 5th year option is the same as the transition tag. Why use one and not the other? It’s about $24M. 
 

He’ll have to go full Trubisky/Bortles to not get his 5th year option with this FO. Right or wrong, I think they are all in on 5 years with the kid even if he flat lines or shows incremental improvement. Which is fine with me because he has shown he can get better. And I say that as a guy who also thinks the current version of Josh Allen is a pretty bad passer of the football. 
 

Edit: Let me rephrase. He’ll get 5 years in a Bills uniform. I can’t see them not taking it after this year barring catastrophic failure. They may head into year 5 with a fail safe and Allen could get yanked. 

Edited May 7, 2020 by Mango

[BarleyNY]

11 minutes ago, Mango said:

He’s a top 10 pick, the 5th year option is the same as the transition tag. Why use one and not the other? It’s about $24M. 
 

He’ll have to go full Trubisky/Bortles to not get his 5th year option with this FO. Right or wrong, I think they are all in on 5 years with the kid even if he flat lines or shows incremental improvement. Which is fine with me because he has shown he can get better. And I say that as a guy who also thinks the current version of Josh Allen is a pretty bad passer of the football. 

The big difference is that his option would have to be executed in March 2021, a full year before the transition tag would be.  That’s my main point.  Unless he improves a good bit this season, why not wait and see how he does in year 4 before guaranteeing him $24M for year 5?

[GunnerBill]

28 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

The big difference is that his option would have to be executed in March 2021, a full year before the transition tag would be.  That’s my main point.  Unless he improves a good bit this season, why not wait and see how he does in year 4 before guaranteeing him $24M for year 5?

 

It is a fair point. That is new, right?

[Dopey]

On 4/27/2020 at 8:47 AM, Buffalo03 said:

I almost feel that you can't really make a fair judgement on Allen with Daboll as OC. The guys playcalling is extremely atrocious a lot of the time. He was the reason we ended up in a lot of 3rd and long situations trying to run 36 year old Frank Gore to the side instead of up the middle. He also gets to happy with QB draws for Allen. I feel like in order to have a fair assement of Allen this season that Daboll needs to just let Allen let loose

I feel the same way, except the other way around. Last year was hard to judge Daboll with Allen as the QB. We should have beat NE in our 1st match up but Allen was horrible. Just before the 1st half of the Philly game, Allen fumbles and Philly scores with 25 second left in the half. Philly also scores a 2 pointer off that td. Allen gave them 8 points. Philly takes the momentum and scores to open the 3rd and it's over for us. If Allen hits on a couple of plays vs. Balt. we win. Daboll called 2 awesome plays early in that game, but Allen didn't execute. Allen had a 3 play meltdown late in the playoff game( I still laugh at the attempted lateral to Knox). Daboll called a winning game vs. the Texans. Player lack of execution was the problem.

[Buffalo03]

2 minutes ago, Dopey said:

I feel the same way, except the other way around. Last year was hard to judge Daboll with Allen as the QB. We should have beat NE in our 1st match up but Allen was horrible. Just before the 1st half of the Philly game, Allen fumbles and Philly scores with 25 second left in the half. Philly also scores a 2 pointer off that td. Allen gave them 8 points. Philly takes the momentum and scores to open the 3rd and it's over for us. If Allen hits on a couple of plays vs. Balt. we win. Daboll called 2 awesome plays early in that game, but Allen didn't execute. Allen had a 3 play meltdown late in the playoff game( I still laugh at the attempted lateral to Knox). Daboll called a winning game vs. the Texans. Player lack of execution was the problem.

Yeah, but both are at fault here. Allen needs to fix some things but I don't think Daboll is necessarily putting him in the best position a lot of times. Running Gore to the side on 2 and 10 and ending up with 3rd and 9 doesn't really help anyone. Allen did turn the Ball over a lot in the NE game trying to play hero ball. That game was on him. I feel like he settled down a lot as the season went on. And that fumble that Allen had in the Philly game was a QB draw play. Which is another play that Daboll gets too happy with. Allen needs to work on touch and not trying to be the hero all the time but Daboll needs to put him in better situations. Especially, with Diggs here now. He nees to air it out anf trust Allen. That Steelers Sunday night game last year had me ripping my hair out with the plays that Daboll was calling. We got a turnover and then run the ball 3 straight times. Two of them with Gore and then Settle for a FG. You can't do that

[Mango]

2 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

The big difference is that his option would have to be executed in March 2021, a full year before the transition tag would be.  That’s my main point.  Unless he improves a good bit this season, why not wait and see how he does in year 4 before guaranteeing him $24M for year 5?

 

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is a fair point. That is new, right?

 

 

This is a good point, why commit yourself financially if you don't have to. Again, I think Allen gets 5 years on the roster to prove he either is or is not the guy. I have been critical of his passing, but he has shown enough improvement currently to get that year. Even if he only shows incremental improvements over the next two years, they will give him part or all of his 5th year to take a huge step as a passer. And if that happens, there will be somebody on the bench ready to step in if he doesn't at that point. But probably not before then.  

 

In regards to the difference between a 5th year and Transition tag, I believe the Transition tag is similar to being an RFA. Where the Bills have the right of first refusal. Just an example, Jacksonville in 2 years offers Allen 3 years at 30M/Y, because they still blow and their new HC thinks they can make something work.  Buffalo can match or decline and lose him. Which they probably would in the above scenario because they are waiting for him to "prove it". Where as the 5th year option, he has to be a Buffalo Bill in year 5 baring a trade or cut. After that both can re sign or walk away without an issue. 

[BarleyNY]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is a fair point. That is new, right?

Yes!

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Yes!

 

When did it become guaranteed under the old CBA?

[BarleyNY]

5 hours ago, Mango said:

 

 

 

This is a good point, why commit yourself financially if you don't have to. Again, I think Allen gets 5 years on the roster to prove he either is or is not the guy. I have been critical of his passing, but he has shown enough improvement currently to get that year. Even if he only shows incremental improvements over the next two years, they will give him part or all of his 5th year to take a huge step as a passer. And if that happens, there will be somebody on the bench ready to step in if he doesn't at that point. But probably not before then.  

 

In regards to the difference between a 5th year and Transition tag, I believe the Transition tag is similar to being an RFA. Where the Bills have the right of first refusal. Just an example, Jacksonville in 2 years offers Allen 3 years at 30M/Y, because they still blow and their new HC thinks they can make something work.  Buffalo can match or decline and lose him. Which they probably would in the above scenario because they are waiting for him to "prove it". Where as the 5th year option, he has to be a Buffalo Bill in year 5 baring a trade or cut. After that both can re sign or walk away without an issue. 

Yeah.  The fifth year option is a team option that can’t be refused by the player (except with retirement).  No other team can negotiate with the player.  Starting next season it becomes guaranteed at the time it is executed.

 

The transition tag allows the player to negotiate and sign with another team, but the team that tagged him can match.  They get no compensation if they don’t.  The non-exclusive franchise tag is the same except the team gets two first round picks from the team that signs him away if they don’t match.  The exclusive rights franchise tag does not allow the player to negotiate or sign with anyone else.  All of the tags become guaranteed at the time the player signs them.

 

So in addition to the transition tag the franchise tags are also options if his fifth year option isn’t picked up.  I look at QBs (not just Allen) like this: If you get through four seasons and you still don’t think enough of that QB to tag him, then it’s time to part ways.  The financial cost just becomes too great by year 5.  So if he earns the fifth year option this season, awesome.  Start preparing to sign him to a long term deal after year 4.  If he doesn’t, but earns a tag in 2021, still great.  If not, then it’s time to find somebody else.  Four years is long enough to decide whether or not he’s the guy. 

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

When did it become guaranteed under the old CBA?

Guaranteed for injury only at time it was executed.  Fully guaranteed on the first day of the league year (in March).  This last group that included White is under the old rule. 

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Guaranteed for injury only at time it was executed.  Fully guaranteed on the first day of the league year (in March).  This last group that included White is under the old rule. 

 

So guaranteed on the first day of the league year to which the option applies (so year 5) rather than now when it becomes guaranteed when it is triggered in the offseason before year 4?

[Mango]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

Yeah.  The fifth year option is a team option that can’t be refused by the player (except with retirement).  No other team can negotiate with the player.  Starting next season it becomes guaranteed at the time it is executed.

 

The transition tag allows the player to negotiate and sign with another team, but the team that tagged him can match.  They get no compensation if they don’t.  The non-exclusive franchise tag is the same except the team gets two first round picks from the team that signs him away if they don’t match.  The exclusive rights franchise tag does not allow the player to negotiate or sign with anyone else.  All of the tags become guaranteed at the time the player signs them.

 

So in addition to the transition tag the franchise tags are also options if his fifth year option isn’t picked up.  I look at QBs (not just Allen) like this: If you get through four seasons and you still don’t think enough of that QB to tag him, then it’s time to part ways.  The financial cost just becomes too great by year 5.  So if he earns the fifth year option this season, awesome.  Start preparing to sign him to a long term deal after year 4.  If he doesn’t, but earns a tag in 2021, still great.  If not, then it’s time to find somebody else.  Four years is long enough to decide whether or not he’s the guy. 

Guaranteed for injury only at time it was executed.  Fully guaranteed on the first day of the league year (in March).  This last group that included White is under the old rule. 

I am aware of how the transition tag works, that is why I said it doesn’t make sense to use it when you can guarantee that 5th year for the same exact amount of money with no danger or matching. The franchise doesn’t make any sense in this scenario because by the time the situation arises for a 5th year, it will cost the team an extra $10M minimum to apply it. 
 

You can avoid all that mess by just applying the 5th year option, assuming Allen shows even incremental growth/the wheels don’t fall off. 

Edited May 7, 2020 by Mango