The Bills 2020 Draft in Perspective

[Shaw66]

7 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

Four off-seasons into this regime has helped illustrate who they are and which priorities they have in assembling a roster.  Much of the heavy lifting has been completed such as identifying, maneuvering, and then acquiring the QB.  Or, building the defense into a unit the HC demands.  

 

I've said it elsewhere, but the plan has to bear fruit this season, i.e. a playoff win and a division title.  McBeane will be judged not by individual player decisions with much of rebuilding behind them. Now, it's all about how their plan leads to wins in the regular season.  

 

I just hope the plan (or "process" in McD speak) can accomplish this.  If not, the plateau into being average or slightly better will be frustrating.  There are no more excuses.   

This debate went on endlessly in a thread a few weeks.   

 

It doesn't have to happen in 2020.   If the Bills go 9-7, neither the HC nor the GM will be going anywhere.  

[GunnerBill]

Yea it was an eminently sensible draft. It wasn't necessarily exciting but exciting doesn't always equal good. Personally I'd have preferred a speedier back but that is a matter of personal preference. I still think Moss can be productive. 

 

My only slight caveat is they must think the kicker has a legit shot at winning the job. And that means if we get a pre-season giving him proper chance to win it. Otherwise that was an odd pick. 

[Comebackkid]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Cool way to look at it.   A good balance.   

Balance is a very good way to look at it.   The Pats have been the best team in the league for the last 20 years at finding talent with out over spending.   letting players go before they are washed up and still hold some value.  having the right balance of coaches that can work together.   

Also maybe the hardest thing to do ...finding a balance that allows you to win this year while still having your focus on winning for the next 10 years.

 

I think that with Beane, he does and excellent job of understanding this balance, by far better than any previous gm we have had in ages.   Also the Union of Bean and McDermmot

being on the same page and having similair philosophies gives us a great advantage to build upon.   

 

Thanks for the write up, nice work. 

[TheCockSportif]

2 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

I think a lot of the older Bills fan have been so spoiled with the incredible talent of the past, that the last 20 years have been incredibly boring. When you get to watch amazing players like Bruce, OJ, Kelly, Thurman, etc, your eyes feed off it. Even other teams talent during those times was amazing. Lawrence Taylor, Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders, Marino, Elway, etc you just get spoiled. Honestly the NFL is lacking in high quality stars like the golden days. 

 

But it it does appear to be changing again. People like Barkley and Mahomes give you that same feeling once again. 

Hmm, I had to ponder this for a second or two.  Going into the glory years, the Bills had been terrible for 6 years (and yeah, I'm lumping the 1982 season in there) and then laid an egg in 1989 ("same old Bills" was the thinking with many in WNY back then).  Before that the 1970s were the very definition of mediocrity -- and with OJ and the Electric Co no less!  What I'm telling you is that we enjoyed the ride while it lasted, oh, and those 4 SB losses were crushing.  The band-aids the team put on the later 1990s squads were exactly that.

 

If 40+ years of fandom has taught me anything it's that being a Bills' fan makes you anything but spoiled.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

This debate went on endlessly in a thread a few weeks.   

 

It doesn't have to happen in 2020.   If the Bills go 9-7, neither the HC nor the GM will be going anywhere.  

 

The other side of the sensible draft coin Shaw is that fans will start holding them to a higher standard. If they don't win the division this year they will be criticised and rightly so. I agree their jobs are not under threat with a 9-7 year that either doesn't make the playoffs or precedes another 1 and done - it would take a lot for their jobs to be at risk and that is also right.

 

But opportunity is knocking for Buffalo. I am tired of Cinderella stories. Being better than Chan Gailey and Dick Jauron isn't the test. Being better than Andy Reid and John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin and Bill Belichick is. 

[TheCockSportif]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The other side of the sensible draft coin Shaw is that fans will start holding them to a higher standard. If they don't win the division this year they will be criticised and rightly so. I agree their jobs are not under threat with a 9-7 year that either doesn't make the playoffs or precedes another 1 and done - it would take a lot for their jobs to be at risk and that is also right.

 

But opportunity is knocking for Buffalo. I am tired of Cinderella stories. Being better than Chan Gailey and Dick Jauron isn't the test. Being better than Andy Reid and John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin and Bill Belichick is. 

This freaking exactly.

[jwhit34]

The hope is that the draft becomes like it was in the Super Bowl years. Some perspective on that:

 

1991: Picked 26th, Henry Jones in 1st, Phil Hansen in 2nd, Mark Maddox in 9th

1992:  Picked 27th, John FIna in 1st, Matt Darby in 5th, Kurt Schulz in 7th

1993: Picked 28th, Thomas Smith in 1st, John Parrella in 2nd, Mike Devlin in 5th, Corbin Lacina in 6th

1994: Picked 27th, Jeff Burris in 1st, Sam Rogers in 2nd 

 

Point here is it was harder to get the superstar players picking at the end of the draft but there was an influx of players that had good, solid careers each year that helped fuel the continued success of the team. No perennial Pro Bowlers but guys who started in the league a long time. I picked the ones that had at least 100 games played in the league there were others that had 4-6 years in the league. Parrella of course played more for Chargers than Bills but had a nice career. 

 

This ends up being the first draft for Beane (and hopefully not the last) where he is drafting at the back end of each round, it will be interesting to see how he does in adding talent to an already pretty good roster. The encouraging thing is listening to him talk, he has a plan/methodology and so far his drafts seem to be pretty good. I ascribe to the theory that drafts should be evaluated 3-4 years after they happen so we'll start to see how he's doing in the coming years. The McDermott draft seems to be pretty good hitting on 3 good building blocks (White, Milano, Dawkins) let's see how the subsequent ones pan out. 

 

 

 

 

[Bill from NYC]

1 hour ago, GoBills1111 said:

For many many years our fanbase could have done better at the draft than the highly paid "professionals" (The Modraks and alike) The new group has earned my patience and respect and feel like we are FINALLY moving in the correct direction...GO Bills!

Great first post, and welcome to the board!

You will find that many posters will defend stupid moves that the Bills made over the years through thick and thin. It's cool, after all; this is a page for Bills Fans. That said, your post is 100% correct. The organization was horrible, and fans right here on this board were often clearly superior to the Bills management, and this includes Levy, Jauron, Ryan, and a host of others.

It does appear that things have changed, and it really is great to see.

Once again, welcome!

GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Shaw66]

7 minutes ago, Groin said:

This freaking exactly.

I agree too.

 

My point really is that there are two different standards - the owners' and the fans. 

 

When BillsVet said the "plan has to bear fruit this season," that's a fan's standard.   It doesn't "have to" at all.   It's hard to win the NFL, and it's really hard to win in the playoffs.   It doesn't happen in a straight line.   It isn't no playoffs, wildcard loss, wildcard win, conference championship loss, then Super Bowl loss, then Super Bowl win.  If the Bills have to lose another wildcard game to figure it out, that's okay with me.  Not what I'll want, sitting and watching the game, but it simply isn't for me to tell the team what it "has to do."  

 

As usual, Gunner said it right. 

 

Gunner.  By the way, I commented in your day 2 draft commentary that you wanted more speed.  I care less about the speed than that Moss is a nice complement to Singletary.  I think it's good to have guys with similar running styles - that means both guys can run the whole play book.   And I think quickness, change of direction, and vision are more important in the modern NFL than break-away speed.   So I actually was happy to hear the descriptions of Moss's style.   On video he runs a lot like Singletary.   Of course, the Bills needed a power short-yardage back, and it looks like they got that in Moss, too.  

[BillsVet]

20 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

This debate went on endlessly in a thread a few weeks.   

 

It doesn't have to happen in 2020.   If the Bills go 9-7, neither the HC nor the GM will be going anywhere.  

 

No, neither the HC or GM will go anywhere and I did not imply that.  Yet, I am extremely confident McBeane didn't do all this work to go 9-7 and hope for a 5 or 6 seed  

 

Psychologically speaking, I think most people are afraid to have expectations for fear they will not be realized.  It's OK to expect big things.  It's OK to demand them from your favorite sports team and one is not less of a fan for doing so.  For all the glowing reviews McBeane have received each off-season, isn't it logical to expect to see excellence by year 4?  

 

You can't applaud the personnel moves and then set the bar low for the coming season.  It's a non-sequitur.  

 

[Shaw66]

8 minutes ago, jwhit34 said:

The hope is that the draft becomes like it was in the Super Bowl years. Some perspective on that:

 

1991: Picked 26th, Henry Jones in 1st, Phil Hansen in 2nd, Mark Maddox in 9th

1992:  Picked 27th, John FIna in 1st, Matt Darby in 5th, Kurt Schulz in 7th

1993: Picked 28th, Thomas Smith in 1st, John Parrella in 2nd, Mike Devlin in 5th, Corbin Lacina in 6th

1994: Picked 27th, Jeff Burris in 1st, Sam Rogers in 2nd 

 

Point here is it was harder to get the superstar players picking at the end of the draft but there was an influx of players that had good, solid careers each year that helped fuel the continued success of the team. No perennial Pro Bowlers but guys who started in the league a long time. I picked the ones that had at least 100 games played in the league there were others that had 4-6 years in the league. Parrella of course played more for Chargers than Bills but had a nice career. 

 

This ends up being the first draft for Beane (and hopefully not the last) where he is drafting at the back end of each round, it will be interesting to see how he does in adding talent to an already pretty good roster. The encouraging thing is listening to him talk, he has a plan/methodology and so far his drafts seem to be pretty good. I ascribe to the theory that drafts should be evaluated 3-4 years after they happen so we'll start to see how he's doing in the coming years. The McDermott draft seems to be pretty good hitting on 3 good building blocks (White, Milano, Dawkins) let's see how the subsequent ones pan out. 

 

 

 

 

Good stuff here.  Thanks.  

 

Yes, for sure about the back end of the draft.    Welcome to the mid-20s.    

 

The other thing that Beane now will have to do is play the salary cap game.    The Lawson Epenesa move looks brilliant in that regard.   Bills avoid a big contract and get what looks to be an equivalent player,  maybe even better.  

 

At the end of the season, McDermott said he'd be happy to go into 2020 with the roster he closed 2019 with.   I thought it was a statement of support for his team, one of those positive coach-speak things that's true, of course, but McD knew he was going to get better.    Turns out it was very true about the offensive line.    But the more important point about that comment, which bears on the draft position Beane will have to deal with, is that McDermott was saying to Beane "I don't have any holes.  I don't have needs.    Get me players wherever you want, at whatever position, and if some of them turn out to be better than what I have today, great."    Having an existing lineup like that was what allowed Belichick to take two tight-ends in the first four rounds a few years ago.   

3 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

No, neither the HC or GM will go anywhere and I did not imply that.  Yet, I am extremely confident McBeane didn't do all this work to go 9-7 and hope for a 5 or 6 seed  

 

Psychologically speaking, I think most people are afraid to have expectations for fear they will not be realized.  It's OK to expect big things.  It's OK to demand them from your favorite sports team and one is not less of a fan for doing so.  For all the glowing reviews McBeane have received each off-season, isn't it logical to expect to see excellence by year 4?  

 

You can't applaud the personnel moves and then set the bar low for the coming season.  It's a non-sequitur.  

 

Gotcha.   You probably agree with how Gunner put it, too.  

 

I agree with what you've said.   No one has low expectations.   Not the fans, not the owners, not the GM, not McDermott.   Not now. 

 

As soon as I heard the Bills traded for Diggs I said it was a message to McDermott and Allen - "you're expected to win now."   Keeping the first pick and getting a receiver would have said "grow with this guy - we expect you to win with him."   Getting Diggs said instead "keep up with this guy.  It's time."

 

I've always said that I've surmised from things McBeane have said that two years ago they targeted 2021 as the season it would all come together, the first time they should be good enough to play for a Lombardi.   But I also thought they implied that if things well, it could be as early as 2020.   I think the Diggs trade said they think things went well.  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

It’s all good as long as Allen gets better. He looks like he CAN be a franchise QB. He has much to improve. If he doesn’t then It will be a challenge just to get back to the playoffs let alone make a deep run.

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

This debate went on endlessly in a thread a few weeks.   

 

It doesn't have to happen in 2020.   If the Bills go 9-7, neither the HC nor the GM will be going anywhere.  

How long do you want to wait? 

[Shaw66]

18 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

It’s all good as long as Allen gets better. He looks like he CAN be a franchise QB. He has much to improve. If he doesn’t then It will be a challenge just to get back to the playoffs let alone make a deep run.

How long do you want to wait? 

Absolutely it all depends in Allen.  

 

Heck, I can wait three, four more years.  If Allen keeps progressing, he will be a star.  If he becomes a star in four years, he still has eight or ten years left.  If thats how long it takes, and it's followed by an eight year championship run, I definitely can wait. 

[FireChans]

18 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Absolutely it all depends in Allen.  

 

Heck, I can wait three, four more years.  If Allen keeps progressing, he will be a star.  If he becomes a star in four years, he still has eight or ten years left.  If thats how long it takes, and it's followed by an eight year championship run, I definitely can wait. 

Teams don’t usually make 8 year straight runs. Your window is technically open if you have a franchise QB in place, but getting your roster to SB contender status usually happen once every 3 years or so if you’re drafting and managing cap well.

 

The Falcons, Packers, Chargers and Saints are good examples of that. Technically contenders every year, which is awesome. But they only had a handful of seasons each during their QB’s primes when they had the talent to be winners.

 

We have a window right now. Our team is built to compete. Hopefully Josh continues to become a star, but if we wait three years, the roster may not be ready.

Edited April 27, 2020 by FireChans

[Shaw66]

42 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Teams don’t usually make 8 year straight runs. Your window is technically open if you have a franchise QB in place, but getting your roster to SB contender status usually happen once every 3 years or so if you’re drafting and managing cap well.

 

The Falcons, Packers, Chargers and Saints are good examples of that. Technically contenders every year, which is awesome. But they only had a handful of seasons each during their QB’s primes when they had the talent to be winners.

 

We have a window right now. Our team is built to compete. Hopefully Josh continues to become a star, but if we wait three years, the roster may not be ready.

I'd suggest listening to McBeane.  They have been pretty good at doing what they say.  They say they are building for sustained long term success.  

 

Their intention is to be the Pats, not the Falcons, Packers, Chatgers or Saints.  

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I'd suggest listening to McBeane.  They have been pretty good at doing what they say.  They say they are building for sustained long term success.  

 

Their intention is to be the Pats, not the Falcons, Packers, Chatgers or Saints.  

Lots of tremendous coaches and tremendous QB’s have not achieved what the Pats have done. That’s why they are so heralded. It’s a great intention, but the history of the league tells us it is extremely likely to not be so. 

[Don Otreply]

6 hours ago, first_and_ten said:

 

 

Where do I begin? We missed out on all the good QBs and all the good offensive linemen? The Stud DBs and Wrs?

The Bills used their first pick to get a stud WR. Would you  rather they had finished near the bottom so they could have draftet another QB ? What do you think teams who make the playoffs do? They don't get the top players. They already have them. We already have a stud DB. We have a solid line already. How were they supposed to get one of the top ones? By osmosis? 

What kind of draft is this? It's the draft of a team who is already very good and is not in a position to draft the top players.

You're all over the place in your comments. You're not making sense. The draft is obviously not as exciting when You're not near the bottom each year. Do you want to go back to that?

You might want to re read it with a different eye ? it seems to have gone over your head just a wee bit. 
nuthin but luv ??

 

Go Bills!!!

[DefenseWins]

I don't usually put much stock in post-draft evaluations in the first place. I don't think you can ever get a good read on a player this soon. I'm content to wait and see. I think where Diggs is concerned, he should make a much bigger contribution this year than any rookie fresh out of college. 

[Bob in STL]

7 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm just reflecting on how life as a Bills fan has changed.   

 

We suffered through 15 years of NFL drafts, in my case foolishly hoping that some name that the Bills selected in the first round or maybe the second would make the team good.   Think of the all the unreasonable expectations people put on Manuel, on Gilmore, on Maybin, on Dareus, on Sammy, on McGahee, on Lynch.   It went on, year after year.   You may have been excited about this choice or disappointed about that choice, but every year there was this unreasonable hope, this expectation, that we were witnessing the beginning of greatness.  

 

Viewed from the perspective of those years, the Bills' 2020 draft was an enormous disappointment.   No first round pick (remember 2005, when Aaron Rodgers could have become a Bill?), an edge player whom no one expects to be a Kahlil Mack or Von Miller, a running back who's too short and too slow to be a stud, a wideout left over after a bumper crop of wideouts was drafted, a back-up quarterback, a kicker, for Pete's sake, a too slow receiver and a corner back who lasted to the seventh round.   Are you kidding?   We're supposed to be excited about that?   We missed out on all the good quarterbacks, all the good offensive linemen, all the good receivers, some stud defensive backs.   What kind of draft is this?

 

Well, when you have your franchise quarterback, you get a backup QB in your draft every few years.   When you have a really good defense, a role-playing defensive end is just what you need.   When you already have a starting running back and you can get another guy to share the load without having to be a star in his own right, you do it.   When you gave up your first pick to get top-end wideout, you can afford to let the cream of the crop go to other teams who are desperate to generate offense.  

 

The national press seems to be giving the Bills As and Bs for the 2020 draft.   In years gone by, they would have blasted, absolutely blasted the Bills for being so clueless.   Where are the impact players, the diamonds in the rough?   Well, when you're good, they're already on the team.  

 

I spent 20 years looking forward to the time when the Bills would be good.   In part, I looked forward to how exciting it would be.   In fact, the only exciting time is when the Bills are on the field.   The draft and free agency have turned out to be the most boring parts of the year.   Not unimportant, but not all that exciting, either.  

 

Go Bills!!!

Nicely Stated. 
 

I think we picked up some very good pieces here.  We got what we needed.  A few of these kids will help now and a few will develop and help later.  

[Straight Hucklebuck]

8 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm just reflecting on how life as a Bills fan has changed.

 

I think a few things.

 

1. I liked the Bills strategy in this draft. I agree with you that finally the Bills have a team with quality depth (outside of Linebacker), so it’s not the old days of Nate Clements walks, so now there is a hole at cornerback, or Jason Peters is traded and so now we have Demetress Bell playing LT.

 

The old Bills would have taken cornerbacks you’ve never heard of in the second round, taken Centers and tried to convert them into Guards, take large Safeties and put them at Linebacker.

 

2. So competition now defines the offense. We have Diggs, Beasley, Brown, Foster, Williams, McKenzie, Roberts, Davis and Hodgins all fighting for their place in the pecking order.
 

Can Knox take a stranglehold on the Tight End room? I’m glad we did not do what the Saints did and give up 3-4 picks for a decent Tight End.

 

The Bills kept Gore on the field last year because they wanted his physical style, now they have a 22 year old that plays that way, not Chris Ivory, Mike Tolbert or 97 year old Frank Gore. 

 

We’ve got a million lineman now that can compete for 8 jobs.

 

Barkley isn’t going to handed the backup job. So far the Beane/McDermott regime has fumbled the backup QB position with guys like McCarron, Peterman, Anderson. And Barkley stunk last year when forced to play. Fromm can come in and see if he can displace Barkley. A guy from a big college, 3 years, some nice wins. Peterman didn’t work, talking guys out of retirement doesn’t work (Orton, Anderson), taking other teams backups and making them compete doesn’t work (Kolb, Holcomb), resurrecting careers doesn’t work (Brohm). 

 

3. Speaking of which, the Bills did two things I liked. All their picks Rounds 2, 3, 4, 5 and Hodgins in the 6th produced big numbers in college. So they stopped with the projecting and just got players who dominated on tape. Also, they didn’t draft 23 and 24 year olds. They got a few guys who are 21, the rest 22 and have not played their best football yet. They weren’t dipping for Special Teams only guys in the 3rd and 4th Round.

 

4. don’t think we have to anoint Allen. He needs to improve by NFL standards now, not just improvement compared to himself. I don’t think we can kick our feet up and think the QB position is solved. Yes Allen improved, and willed the Bills to some gutsy victories. But he had a defense that held opponents to 16.2 ppg and the schedule and QBs on that schedule were weak. 
 

The Bills finally have invested heavily in the offense. No more pop gun football hoping to wait for a mistake by the other team and win 17-13. 
 

Allen needs to make a jump, otherwise he is the piece holding the team back. Nice guy, great competitor, but I don’t think he’s done enough with the fumbling and high stakes games to close the door. 
 

And that’s a protective mechanism from the old days. We want to feel good about what’s going on so we call the search for a franchise QB over too quickly, our old GM called Fitz a

franchise QB, fans sided with Marrone when Steve Johnson was traded for running irregular touts, some fans made post after post about Tyrod being the guy. We’ll know if Allen gets there when the Bills get out of the teens in scoring and Allen starts putting up more than an occasional dominant performance.

 

The Bills FO has upgraded the talent significantly, without making the offense too old. 

 

Edited April 27, 2020 by Straight Hucklebuck