My Thoughts on the Draft.

[Gambit]

7 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Again as I said before. Draw up your draft impression thread and leave him out of it. To easy. And I still look forward to reading it. 

Please don't encourage him to post more. 

[krf139]

9 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Stephon Diggs - well done getting one of the top Route runners in the NFL. For years we have struggled watching Bills WRs able to get separation now all three of our starters get major Separation with Brown, Diggs and Beasley. To go get a WR in his prime was the best move they could have made in this draft. Beane called it right as well after the trade saying the package we used could get us to 18 and he thinks the top WRs would be gone. Lamb was the last one and was gone at 17. That is great foresight a month and a half away from the draft. 
 

AJ Epenesa - During the draft run up he was a top 20 projected pick for 8 months. (I never saw it, I actually thought this edge class was overrated due to a weak class). However I did have him graded late 1st/early 2nd guy. Now with that said still about 20 pick value at 54. What I like is his power and consistency. I think he was a little heavy at 280. I think with an NFL nutrition program he can drop 10 to 15 keep his power and gain even more burst. His burst now isn’t bad. He will be your Base End (LDE) not enough quickness to play against the top LTs. I don’t think you are ever going to see top end sack numbers but a consistent 5-8 sack guy a year (probably most coming from interior if he reduces down). Put a very very powerful guy with lethal hands will also greatly aid in setting the edge. Also think he has protected the long arm (meaning I think you will see him get the ball from the QB in his rush more than the sack, this will be limited going into the QBs face from the left spot but going up against the likes of Tua (lefty) will bring the Fumble into play. If down the line he leans out keeps his power and builds more burst and quickness to move to the RDE spot not only will the sacks come but the strip sacks will as well. Heck of a player we got pure football player. 
 

Zach Moss - Probably my favorite pick. And before I go on this is not a dig on Singletary, just more of a compliment of Moss. Give it a year and if he stays healthy he would be your RB1. That is how much people will love him. His vision is great, feet are great, sneaky good out of the backfield, can pass block well, runs mean. He is just as likely to run you over as he is to jump cut you. What does concern me is his Injuries. And I don’t think that they are going to go away so it is good to have two young RBs. He has around 800 carries with a vicious running style and because of that I think he gets hurt more than he should. If I am the Bills I am teaching him how to take care of his body. He doesn’t always have to be the one putting the other in the cold tub. If his vicious running will turn a 10 yard gain into a 12 yard gain (on 3rd and 4) I hope the Bills can teach him that is an opportunity to take care of your body. But I don’t want to completely change his running just have him make better choices. However as a third round pick. If you give me 1 Rookie Contract before breaking down it is a win and will take that from RBs all day long. 
 

Gabriel Davis - really like this pick as well. Now that said he is a developing player. Watching him all the time as a UCF season ticket holder there is talent there. First anytime UCF needed a play he was who they looked at (9/10 he made it for him). While at UCF he lined up eat outside. There are reasons for that because he just relied on his for given ability and UCF didn’t want to try and change it his routes are not precise. So on in breaking routes the extra 2-3 yards he lined up compared to most outside WRs helped him still get the separation with his rounded routes.  Not slow but not quick either. His speed builds over time so his routes are rounded which works in college. Not only does he have to learn more of the route tree but the nuances of running routes. He is plenty quick enough to gain separation out of breaks if fought how to do it properly. I think he is a High end WR2 ceiling (many UCF fans would kill me for saying that they think he is a legit One. I don’t). However all that said about routes. He has been working on them every day and people are saying they are getting better. Even 30 minutes after hearing his name called he was out with UCF QB running routes. the work ethic and kid are top notch. 
 

Jake Fromm - probably the surprise of the draft to a lot of people. I also really like this pick because I see him for what he is a player that likely will have a long 20 year career as a BU and eventually transitioning to a coach. His physical attributes are limited but his football mind is amazing. That is what I want in a BU an ultra smart player that if called on can come in and perform under limited reps. The value in the 5th was just too much to keep ignoring. If people think but we didn’t need him we have Barkley let me point to the NE game. We had that game won if Barkley could have been AVG. he puked himself and at that point I knew it was time to move on. I would have thought they would have gone a Vet but I applaud going with a young player. And who knows maybe by year three he is flipped for two 2nds like a Schaub trade or even a 2nd like Jimmy G. And Beane turned a 5th into multiple pick return in a couple years. Also I love his attitude. He has out performed and beat out more talented players his entire career. 
 

Tyler Bass - Love the pick as well. An ultra strong leg kicker. Kid was booming Kicks at the Senior Bowl. Posting videos of drilling 50 yarders with no approach just leg swing and 60 yarders with a 1 step approach. Love the signal drafting a kicker sends to your Vet as well. It seems the Waiver Claim mid season of McLaughlin woke Hausch up. What would drafting a kicker do. To be honest I think it is Bass’s job to lose. But perfect spot for a position group that probably is the easiest way onto the Roster. 

Isaiah Hodgins - don’t know much about him others will know more. What I do know is his hands are amazing. He catches EVERYTHING. He also has some sick quick feet for a Big WR. Watching what little I did I would put him below Davis in terms of right now. But with a higher ceiling. He could become a legit No1 WR with development. But he just has a longer climb to get their than Davis does to get to his ceiling as a WR2. 
 

Dane Jackson - I really know nothing about him. But glad they went and got a CB somewhere. I think he projects more inside than outside. But I have to defer to McD and Beane here one thing they seem to know is DBs and how to get the most out of them. 

all and all I would give this draft a solid A. Great Value all around and the did what they needed to do without reaching. On getting weapons, Youth at EDGE, a BU QB and Kicker Competition. 

 

 

Last time I heard about a Bills draft pick who "catches everything" was Zay Jones.  He gets in a game and is afraid of the ball.  The tape only shows so much on these guys.  You just don't know until they get into live NFL action.

[MAJBobby]

Just now, krf139 said:

Last time I heard about a Bills draft pick who "catches everything" was Zay Jones.  He gets in a game and is afraid of the ball.  The tape only shows so much on these guys.  You just don't know until they get into live NFL action.

Well 173 targets 3 drops does say a lot specially on a contested catch guy. 

[maryland-bills-fan]

9 hours ago, SCBills said:

Agree with most of what you said.   A draft where, after every pick, I just thought “ok, I like it!”... maybe I just trust anything Beane does at this point. 
 

I love Fromm as a football player.. I do worry about his arm in cold and/or windy weather.  He clearly doesn’t have a cannon, but if he can handle the elements of football north of the Mason Dixon Line, we got ourselves a tremendous backup QB. 
 

Moss/Epenesa were homerun picks.  
 

Taking two WRs in a loaded WR draft, even after trading for Diggs, is something I absolutely loved. 
 

No issue with Bass or Jackson.  McDermott is a secondary wizard and it may be time to move on from Haushka. 
 

I would’ve liked a punter, but Beane seems pretty high on Vedvik being that competition for Bojo.  
 

Most exciting camp battle is going to be for the last 2-3 WR spots.  “Iron sharpens iron”... Duke, McKenzie and Foster better bring it if they want to hold off Davis and Hodgins.  
 

 

You can always get a WR in the later rounds.

[stinky finger]

Moss is my favorite pick.

 

Love his style of running. Can't wait to see him punish the opposing D.

 

We boast a terrific 1-2 combo in the backfield.

[Einstein's Dog]

11 hours ago, SoTier said:

I think the Bills pretty much went BPA which I believe in.  Having a decent roster means that the team doesn't have to "reach" to fill desperate needs on either side of the ball, consequently no 'WTF picks".  Now, if the Bills can re-sign their top performers from recent drafts, they'll be on their way to doing what teams that consistently make the playoffs do -- grab talented players regardless of position rather than trying to fill holescreated by continually letting their top young starters leave in FA.

I totally disagree.  This BPA talk has boiled down to coach speak.

 

Round 1 - WR.  They were going WR but since it looked to them they weren't going to like the choice there they traded it for Diggs.  Great move but obviously they used round 1 for a need and not taking BPA.

 

Round 2 - DE.  Going to get a DE which will allow them to jettison someone like Murphy or replace Hughes/Addison.  Epensa fell into their lap but I bet T Lewis /Weaver/Urche would have filled that same void.  Not really BPA but best DE available.  

 

Round 3 - RB.  They knew an RB would be there in round 3, a non-prima donna RB like Singletary.  If Moss wasn't there then Evans/McFarland/maybe Dillon would have probably fit the bill.

 

Round 4 -WR.  This is supposed to be a historic year for WRs.  Take 2 in later rounds to see if you can hit with one as an eventual WR replacement.  I never heard of the guy they took, but I imagine best WR on their board.

 

After that it is a crapshoot.  But there had been talk about needing a backup QB, and a CB.

 

Great draft, but IMO, they had it in their minds pre-draft to go DE, RB, WR.  

 

 

[John from Riverside]

12 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Nice writeup OP. We should revisit this thread at the end of the season again.

 

My take:

 

1. Diggs is more than worthy of pick #18 and fills the one major hole we had on the roster. We had been desperate to get that hole filled since the past trading deadline - and, Diggs is the perfect fit for that hole - perfect fit, signed on for 3 more years, great work ethic, wants to win, respects Josh Allen and wants to go to war with him. All -in all, a home run, if ever there was one.

2. Epenesa - last year this time, he was viewed as a top 5 pick. Then he had to face double teams constantly at Iowa and his sack numbers went down the first 6-7 games - but he and his coaches figured out a way to get his production up since he also started situationally rushing from the inside. One can directly credit him for being the difference maker in at least three major wins over ranked opponents for the Hawkeyes last season. Oh, and he manhandled the fins' #18 pick Anthony Jackson. I even read reports justifying Jackson at #18 that discounted the performance against Epenesa since Epenesa was elite and any other tackle would not have performed better. Now, his 40 time was atrocious - but he is not the "Uche / Hughes" kinda Defensive End who relies on twitch and speed. In fact, I am going out on a limb and calling him a poor man's JJ Watt. As late as January, based on his game tape, guys had him going top 20. And unlike other DE whose fall was justified post-combine (like Jachai Polite last year), he is a high character blue collar worker with zero attitude issues.  I will admit there is a small part of me that would have liked a mini move up (costing a fifth rounder) to #50 to draft Trevon Diggs - who is the perfect McD CB comparable to Tre White, but the main reason Beane did not do that was the continued availability of Epenesa, Dobbins, Akers (at the time I included Mims in this list - but Beane accidentally let on that the Bills did not have a second round grade on Mims) etc. - so this is a home run as well.

3. Zack Moss - We did have a minor hole on the roster for a power back to complement Singletary - and, my oh my, Zack Moss was the only remaining fitting back left for a looong time and miraculously, fell to us. Folks - dont think of him as RB2. This is RB1b to Singletary's RB1a. And with a lower workload than at college (man was he overutilized) - Moss should be able to stay healthy and produce for a long time. We have a beast mode just like the Seahawks during their SB years and a pair of complementary RBs like New Orleans with Kamara and Mark Ingram and Ravens with Dobbins and Ingram this season. Another home run. So far Beane has hit 3 for 3 with three home runs.

4. Gabe Davis - OK our scouting group has researched WRs a lot and feel Davis is undervalued. He is a tallish long ball threat since UCF basically had him go deep often and he hauled in a decent percent of these long balls (with YAC) and was a big play threat on virtually every play. But do we need him given we have Diggs, Brown, Foster and even McKenzie already available? Wasnt Bryce Hall still available? Could we have moved up 4 picks and taken James Morgan (dammit those stupid Jets picked him at #125)? Why not Jake Fromm here? Given the lack of holes available, why not take a flyer on potential first round talents (Hall) who have fallen due to injury. Guys like Myles Jack, Jaylon Smith, Jeffrey Simmons  etc. all overcame significant injuries since these guys are young. My issue is less with Gabe Davis' value  (I will take our scouting department's word that he represents value at #128) and more with what else was available (and dammit the stupid Jets picked Hall early in the 5th) - at best, a sac bunt - but likely a strike there. I do not see Davis making the roster due to ST ability just based on his 40 yard time - but his ability on contested catches is great - so at worst, he is a PS guy who can be promoted if Diggs cant go for some reason.

5. Jake Fromm - Love it. Completely unexpected that Fromm falls to the fifth round. Bills get a chance to "redeem" their 4th round "miss" on Fromm by still unexpectedly having him available. We need a backup QB - and this makes so much sense at #167 relative to the Packers' gamble with Love at #26, Philly's pick of Hurts at #53 and the Pats' several wiffs on the QB position). At worst  an RBI base hit - if he fills in well as relief for Allen and is worth a 2nd round pick two years from now. Everything about Jake Fromm - his prep, work ethic, leadership, proven winner etc. - tells me he will succeed in the NFL. 

6. Isiah Hodgins - Instantly becomes our tallest receiver. Is Beane overcompensating for his smurf collection from last year? But did we really need another WR with Duke Williams, Foster, McKenzie, Easley, Ray-Ray, Roberts and Davis above already backing up our top 3. We already had 10 WRs on the roster - do we need a 11th? I dont see Hodgins contributing on ST - he had a really slow 40 time - so how does he get on the field? likely a strike

7. Dane Jackson - I became aware of him at the senior bowl and, by all accounts, he performed really well there. Unlike WR, you can never have too many CBs and I trust McD's ability to spot CB talent- so I am quite happy to get him in the 7th. Base hit.

 

Bottomline: I dont think there is any doubt that we killed the top half of the draft. In the bottom half, I will wait till the season to see how our WR picks pan out. 

Just not getting why anyone would think these 2 WR's would not make this team......past the top 3 our WR's are JAGS

[folz]

After watching highlights of our draft picks, what I really liked about our draft (including giving up the first for Diggs) is this:

 

What were our major areas of weakness last year (in no particular order):

 

1. We need to score more points (red zone):

    In comes Diggs (and his precision route running), 2 tall rookie receivers that can be red zone threats, and a RB (Moss) that can bull his way into the end zone.  

 

2. No height in the WR room:

    Diggs 6'0", Gabe Davis 6'2", Isiah Hodgins 6'4" (all with reliable hands)

 

3. We need to stay on the field (3rd down production):

    We already have Beasley, who is good on 3rd downs, and then we add Diggs, who is also good there and will keep teams from doubling Beasley.

    Zach Moss, the guy is a beast in short yardage for those 3rd and shorts

    Isiah Hodgins, if he can make the team, he's a true, big possession receiver. He's not going to blow the lid off, but like 90% of his receptions go for first   

    downs (and he has sure hands). He was a move-the-chains beast in college.

    Gabe Davis, big, great at 50/50 contested catches, loves and excels at taking the quick slant over the middle. It'll be much harder to knock him off that route

    than Brown or  Beasley.

 

4. Pass Rush:

    Added Epenesa (after already getting Addison). Can hold the edge as well as Shaq did, but a more powerful pass rusher and can kick inside too (more 

    versatility).

 

5. Stouter against the run: 

    Addressed in free agency and A.J. mitigates the loss of Shaq

 

6. Bigger, stronger, tougher (especially on offense):

    All of these draft picks (save the QB and K) are strong/tough/physical players. Have you watched Dane Jackson's tackling? It's like watching Antoine

    Winfield, Sr.; A.J. is one tough SOB; the receivers are physical (they're big, good blockers for the run game, make catches in traffic, etc.), Zach moss 

    (fuggetaboutit), the kid is a beast.

 

7. More targets forJosh:

    Diggs and two big WRs and a complimentary back who is good at catching passes out of the backfield. There's 4 more possibly dynamic targets for Josh.

 

8. No #1 WR:

    Diggs

 

And in the department of always needing to improve, Hauschka had some rough moments early last year and Barkley couldn't pull the New England game out when he came in. So, adding competition to those two spots definitely is not a bad thing.

 

By no means a splashy draft, but with what we already added in free agency, it does feel like Brandon Beane and Co. really attacked our areas of weakness with value picks and guys that have a chance to actually make the team. 

 

 

 

 

 

And is it just me? Or does Dane Jackson remind you a little of Fred Jackson, looks-wise? Like he could be his son or nephew? (I know he is not.)

 

 

 

Edited April 27, 2020 by folz

[hjnick]

18 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Stephon Diggs - well done getting one of the top Route runners in the NFL. For years we have struggled watching Bills WRs able to get separation now all three of our starters get major Separation with Brown, Diggs and Beasley. To go get a WR in his prime was the best move they could have made in this draft. Beane called it right as well after the trade saying the package we used could get us to 18 and he thinks the top WRs would be gone. Lamb was the last one and was gone at 17. That is great foresight a month and a half away from the draft. 
 

AJ Epenesa - During the draft run up he was a top 20 projected pick for 8 months. (I never saw it, I actually thought this edge class was overrated due to a weak class). However I did have him graded late 1st/early 2nd guy. Now with that said still about 20 pick value at 54. What I like is his power and consistency. I think he was a little heavy at 280. I think with an NFL nutrition program he can drop 10 to 15 keep his power and gain even more burst. His burst now isn’t bad. He will be your Base End (LDE) not enough quickness to play against the top LTs. I don’t think you are ever going to see top end sack numbers but a consistent 5-8 sack guy a year (probably most coming from interior if he reduces down). Put a very very powerful guy with lethal hands will also greatly aid in setting the edge. Also think he has protected the long arm (meaning I think you will see him get the ball from the QB in his rush more than the sack, this will be limited going into the QBs face from the left spot but going up against the likes of Tua (lefty) will bring the Fumble into play. If down the line he leans out keeps his power and builds more burst and quickness to move to the RDE spot not only will the sacks come but the strip sacks will as well. Heck of a player we got pure football player. 
 

Zach Moss - Probably my favorite pick. And before I go on this is not a dig on Singletary, just more of a compliment of Moss. Give it a year and if he stays healthy he would be your RB1. That is how much people will love him. His vision is great, feet are great, sneaky good out of the backfield, can pass block well, runs mean. He is just as likely to run you over as he is to jump cut you. What does concern me is his Injuries. And I don’t think that they are going to go away so it is good to have two young RBs. He has around 800 carries with a vicious running style and because of that I think he gets hurt more than he should. If I am the Bills I am teaching him how to take care of his body. He doesn’t always have to be the one putting the other in the cold tub. If his vicious running will turn a 10 yard gain into a 12 yard gain (on 3rd and 4) I hope the Bills can teach him that is an opportunity to take care of your body. But I don’t want to completely change his running just have him make better choices. However as a third round pick. If you give me 1 Rookie Contract before breaking down it is a win and will take that from RBs all day long. 
 

Gabriel Davis - really like this pick as well. Now that said he is a developing player. Watching him all the time as a UCF season ticket holder there is talent there. First anytime UCF needed a play he was who they looked at (9/10 he made it for him). While at UCF he lined up eat outside. There are reasons for that because he just relied on his for given ability and UCF didn’t want to try and change it his routes are not precise. So on in breaking routes the extra 2-3 yards he lined up compared to most outside WRs helped him still get the separation with his rounded routes.  Not slow but not quick either. His speed builds over time so his routes are rounded which works in college. Not only does he have to learn more of the route tree but the nuances of running routes. He is plenty quick enough to gain separation out of breaks if fought how to do it properly. I think he is a High end WR2 ceiling (many UCF fans would kill me for saying that they think he is a legit One. I don’t). However all that said about routes. He has been working on them every day and people are saying they are getting better. Even 30 minutes after hearing his name called he was out with UCF QB running routes. the work ethic and kid are top notch. 
 

Jake Fromm - probably the surprise of the draft to a lot of people. I also really like this pick because I see him for what he is a player that likely will have a long 20 year career as a BU and eventually transitioning to a coach. His physical attributes are limited but his football mind is amazing. That is what I want in a BU an ultra smart player that if called on can come in and perform under limited reps. The value in the 5th was just too much to keep ignoring. If people think but we didn’t need him we have Barkley let me point to the NE game. We had that game won if Barkley could have been AVG. he puked himself and at that point I knew it was time to move on. I would have thought they would have gone a Vet but I applaud going with a young player. And who knows maybe by year three he is flipped for two 2nds like a Schaub trade or even a 2nd like Jimmy G. And Beane turned a 5th into multiple pick return in a couple years. Also I love his attitude. He has out performed and beat out more talented players his entire career. 
 

Tyler Bass - Love the pick as well. An ultra strong leg kicker. Kid was booming Kicks at the Senior Bowl. Posting videos of drilling 50 yarders with no approach just leg swing and 60 yarders with a 1 step approach. Love the signal drafting a kicker sends to your Vet as well. It seems the Waiver Claim mid season of McLaughlin woke Hausch up. What would drafting a kicker do. To be honest I think it is Bass’s job to lose. But perfect spot for a position group that probably is the easiest way onto the Roster. 

Isaiah Hodgins - don’t know much about him others will know more. What I do know is his hands are amazing. He catches EVERYTHING. He also has some sick quick feet for a Big WR. Watching what little I did I would put him below Davis in terms of right now. But with a higher ceiling. He could become a legit No1 WR with development. But he just has a longer climb to get their than Davis does to get to his ceiling as a WR2. 
 

Dane Jackson - I really know nothing about him. But glad they went and got a CB somewhere. I think he projects more inside than outside. But I have to defer to McD and Beane here one thing they seem to know is DBs and how to get the most out of them. 

all and all I would give this draft a solid A. Great Value all around and the did what they needed to do without reaching. On getting weapons, Youth at EDGE, a BU QB and Kicker Competition. 

 

 

Great analysis and writeup...

 

Couple of things:

 

1) RBs better get used to having more competition constantly.  I'm hoping that Beane drafts a RB in every draft and creates a whole stable of RBs to run.  Play the best one and if they need a breather, bring in the second one.  We need to keep fresh young legs in the backfield...

 

2) IMO, Fromm was a good pick.  He looks like he can be a more than adequate backup in the NFL.  Also, (I'm not hoping this) if Josh Allen doesn't work out like we all hope he does, we will have a QB with 2 years of experience under his belt and we can put in if needed.  I think this is a good backup insurance policy at QB.

 

3) What I like about our WRs is they were their teams #1 receiver (UCF and Oregon State).  So they got the other teams best CB every week.  Look at the production these guys produced for their teams.  I'm not saying they will do the same in the NFL, but I feel pretty confident they will compete for WR spots 4,5,6.

[maryland-bills-fan]

2 hours ago, hjnick said:

Great analysis and writeup...

 

Couple of things:

 

1) RBs better get used to having more competition constantly.  I'm hoping that Beane drafts a RB in every draft and creates a whole stable of RBs to run.  Play the best one and if they need a breather, bring in the second one.  We need to keep fresh young legs in the backfield...

 

2) IMO, Fromm was a good pick.  He looks like he can be a more than adequate backup in the NFL.  Also, (I'm not hoping this) if Josh Allen doesn't work out like we all hope he does, we will have a QB with 2 years of experience under his belt and we can put in if needed.  I think this is a good backup insurance policy at QB.

 

3) What I like about our WRs is they were their teams #1 receiver (UCF and Oregon State).  So they got the other teams best CB every week.  Look at the production these guys produced for their teams.  I'm not saying they will do the same in the NFL, but I feel pretty confident they will compete for WR spots 4,5,6.

Good point that is usually overlooked.   That is why I am often leery of taking a player from a winning team, who played beside another good player at the same position. (e.g. two DT or 2 LB or 2 DB or 2 WR).   The fear is that the two each were just a bit better than the college competition, but the opposition could not defend both at the same time- double both of them.  So the one with the weaker coverage could dominate.  In the pros, the bar is higher. We will see how Ruggs(1-12) and Jeudy (1-15) do.

 

[SoTier]

8 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I totally disagree.  This BPA talk has boiled down to coach speak.

 

Round 1 - WR.  They were going WR but since it looked to them they weren't going to like the choice there they traded it for Diggs.  Great move but obviously they used round 1 for a need and not taking BPA.

 

Round 2 - DE.  Going to get a DE which will allow them to jettison someone like Murphy or replace Hughes/Addison.  Epensa fell into their lap but I bet T Lewis /Weaver/Urche would have filled that same void.  Not really BPA but best DE available.  

 

Round 3 - RB.  They knew an RB would be there in round 3, a non-prima donna RB like Singletary.  If Moss wasn't there then Evans/McFarland/maybe Dillon would have probably fit the bill.

 

Round 4 -WR.  This is supposed to be a historic year for WRs.  Take 2 in later rounds to see if you can hit with one as an eventual WR replacement.  I never heard of the guy they took, but I imagine best WR on their board.

 

After that it is a crapshoot.  But there had been talk about needing a backup QB, and a CB.

 

Great draft, but IMO, they had it in their minds pre-draft to go DE, RB, WR.  

 

 

 

All teams factor in their needs when they draft players. 

 

When teams draft "for need", however, they rank their needs and decide what position they need most.  They aren't willing to take advantage of a better player falling into their laps.  If they decide that they need an edge rusher more than anything else, they draft Aaron Maybin, a lesser prospect than numerous other players available, in the first round so they're sure they have him.  In that 2009 draft, if the Bills had drafted BPA rather than for need, they could have had Orakpo (66 sacks in a 10 year career including 3 Pro Bowl appearanaces)  or one of the OTs (another position they needed desperately) and still picked up a decent DE in the second round as Connor Barwin who had a 10 year career and 56.5 sacks wasn't taken until almost the middle of that round.  Maybin had a grand total of 6 sacks in a 4 year career.

 

When teams have a BPA draft strategy, they are flexible in how they view their needs.   Beane said as much when discussing why he took Jake Fromm in the fifth.  If the Bills had drafted for need, they probably would have taken a DB or LB  rather than a backup QB -- and maybe not drafted a kicker at all.  If a team has what they consider an "immediate" need, they move before the draft to fill that through FA or trade -- as the Bills did by trading for Diggs which not only  enabled them to be more flexible in the draft itself but also gave them a much better player for 2020 than they had any real hope of acquiring through the draft.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MrEpsYtown]

How high do you guys think Gabe Davis would have gone if this was not such a deep class?

[SoTier]

3 hours ago, hjnick said:

Great analysis and writeup...

 

Couple of things:

 

1) RBs better get used to having more competition constantly.  I'm hoping that Beane drafts a RB in every draft and creates a whole stable of RBs to run.  Play the best one and if they need a breather, bring in the second one.  We need to keep fresh young legs in the backfield...

 

2) IMO, Fromm was a good pick.  He looks like he can be a more than adequate backup in the NFL.  Also, (I'm not hoping this) if Josh Allen doesn't work out like we all hope he does, we will have a QB with 2 years of experience under his belt and we can put in if needed.  I think this is a good backup insurance policy at QB.

 

3) What I like about our WRs is they were their teams #1 receiver (UCF and Oregon State).  So they got the other teams best CB every week.  Look at the production these guys produced for their teams.  I'm not saying they will do the same in the NFL, but I feel pretty confident they will compete for WR spots 4,5,6.

 

This is a valid point, especially since there have been several first round QBs -- Bortles, Winston, and Mariota -- from recent drafts who haven't proven out.  There's also the example of Trubisky regressing in his third season.  The Bills also definitely need a backup QB who can come in and "hold down the fort" if Allen gets hurt as the Chiefs and Saints demonstrated -- and Barkley isn't that guy.

 

 

 

[Einstein's Dog]

2 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

All teams factor in their needs when they draft players. 

 

When teams draft "for need", however, they rank their needs and decide what position they need most.  They aren't willing to take advantage of a better player falling into their laps.  If they decide that they need an edge rusher more than anything else, they draft Aaron Maybin, a lesser prospect than numerous other players available, in the first round so they're sure they have him.  In that 2009 draft, if the Bills had drafted BPA rather than for need, they could have had Orakpo (66 sacks in a 10 year career including 3 Pro Bowl appearanaces)  or one of the OTs (another position they needed desperately) and still picked up a decent DE in the second round as Connor Barwin who had a 10 year career and 56.5 sacks wasn't taken until almost the middle of that round.  Maybin had a grand total of 6 sacks in a 4 year career.

 

When teams have a BPA draft strategy, they are flexible in how they view their needs.   Beane said as much when discussing why he took Jake Fromm in the fifth.  If the Bills had drafted for need, they probably would have taken a DB or LB  rather than a backup QB -- and maybe not drafted a kicker at all.  If a team has what they consider an "immediate" need, they move before the draft to fill that through FA or trade -- as the Bills did by trading for Diggs which not only  enabled them to be more flexible in the draft itself but also gave them a much better player for 2020 than they had any real hope of acquiring through the draft.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And I contend they drafted for need this year (and it worked out great).  Round one was going to be WR.  They even said they couldn't get one (and went so far as to discuss the possibility of moving up to 18).

Round 2 they were leaning DE, the best one on their board.  And yes, they were always going to claim it was BPA.  IMO, they got lucky Epenesa dropped, but if not they would have taken the highest on their board, Urche/T Lewis/Weaver types.  

IMO, round 3 had options.  If a prime WR - Claypool or Mims had dropped I think they would have pulled the trigger and then moved up with their next pick to get an RB.  Since a desired WR didn't drop they took the best RB on their board and took the best WR on their board in round 4.

After round 4 it's a crapshoot but Beane said he went more for need in those rounds (but once again that's really just coachspeak since he went need all along).

[SCBills]

2 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

How high do you guys think Gabe Davis would have gone if this was not such a deep class?

I think it’s reasonable to assume the talent and depth of this WR class probably pushed guys down a round from where they would normally be drafted.  
 

If that’s the case, Gabe Davis in the 3rd and Isaiah Hodgins in the 5th.  

[The Frankish Reich]

Overall, I'm very happy with this draft (and I will take into account trading for Diggs too).

Minor criticisms: (1) I'm still concerned about the O line. No improvement there, and standing pat with last year's line is definitely a risk. I guess Beane didn't see any clear upgrade at the spots we were picking at. (2) Given that it is a deep roster, I was a bit surprised Beane didn't move to consolidate some of those lower round picks -- maybe package the 5 and the 6 to move up to a 4 next year or something like that. I like the WR competition, but unless there's trades to be had out there (and I don't see any value) you're gonna wind up waiving half of these guys anyway (Foster, McKenzie, Roberts, Duke, the 6th rounder we took, etc.). (3) We have numbers at TE, but really no proven commodity. I thought Kroft was good as gone, now I assume they are confident enough in his health (and his play in a limited role) to keep him.

Again, minor criticisms. I try to look at the offseason as a whole -- with the Diggs trade, bringing in Epenesa to take that Shaq role, finding a 2nd RB so we can let Frank Gore move on, maybe even saving Haushka money since presumably the kicker we took was the highest rated one out there. I won't pretend I watch hours of film on any of these guys, but Beane has earned the benefit of the doubt. 

[Mark Vader]

21 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

I was very surprised how quick his feet are on that long frame as well. 

So why was he picked so late?

 

His speed, or lack thereof?

[The Frankish Reich]

5 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

This is a valid point, especially since there have been several first round QBs -- Bortles, Winston, and Mariota -- from recent drafts who haven't proven out.  There's also the example of Trubisky regressing in his third season.  The Bills also definitely need a backup QB who can come in and "hold down the fort" if Allen gets hurt as the Chiefs and Saints demonstrated -- and Barkley isn't that guy.

 

 

 

And sometimes the guy who can hold down the fort -- basically keep the team playing .500 while the starter is out -- is not the same guy you would want to groom as a potential starter a year or two down the road. See Kyle Allen, Chase Daniel, even Brandon Allen (Broncs).  If your starter is out more than half a dozen games, unless you're a really good team with a really good backup (Saints/Bridgewater) your season is over anyway. Fromm fits the "hold down the fort" profile.

[SoTier]

1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

And sometimes the guy who can hold down the fort -- basically keep the team playing .500 while the starter is out -- is not the same guy you would want to groom as a potential starter a year or two down the road. See Kyle Allen, Chase Daniel, even Brandon Allen (Broncs).  If your starter is out more than half a dozen games, unless you're a really good team with a really good backup (Saints/Bridgewater) your season is over anyway. Fromm fits the "hold down the fort" profile.

 

From what I read about Fromm, he probably doesn't have much starting QB potential, but that's okay.  Good backup QBs are valuable commodities in themselves, and Fromm would likely make a better bridge QB in the event that Allen failed than Barkley.  I think it was a good move by the Bills to have an eye on the future ... "just in case".  

 

Moreover, having little chance of becoming a starter doesn't mean that it's impossible.  The Seahawks took Wilson in the third round, the Cowboys found Romo among the UDFAs, and the Pats plucked Brady out of the sixth round.  Kurt Warner also was an UDFA who got a break, so sometimes lighting does strike.

[starrymessenger]

Agree with the assessment of the Diggs move as well as with what is said about AJ and Moss. The WR strategy was interesting. Hodgins will never break a tackle or produce much YAC at the next level. Probably too slow for STms. Thing is what he does well are also important attributes and he does them at a near elite level even as part of a strong WR class - short area quickness, agility, balance/body control, hands. He projects as a very good possession receiver whether lining up in the slot or outside, and a big time red zone threat. Beane complemented the Hodgins pick with another physical prospect who, unlike Hodgins, flashes the ability to stretch the field. These are good picks who should compete for roster spots. Nothing is given however so we will have to wait to see whether/how well they can develop.

Dont know about Fromm. I take the comments of a Bulldogs fan in the Fromm thread about his having benefitted by Georgia's ground game and excellent O-line. Even in his highlights he seems to have outstanding protection. 

Edited April 27, 2020 by starrymessenger