My Thoughts on the Draft.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

Stephon Diggs - well done getting one of the top Route runners in the NFL. For years we have struggled watching Bills WRs able to get separation now all three of our starters get major Separation with Brown, Diggs and Beasley. To go get a WR in his prime was the best move they could have made in this draft. Beane called it right as well after the trade saying the package we used could get us to 18 and he thinks the top WRs would be gone. Lamb was the last one and was gone at 17. That is great foresight a month and a half away from the draft. 
 

AJ Epenesa - During the draft run up he was a top 20 projected pick for 8 months. (I never saw it, I actually thought this edge class was overrated due to a weak class). However I did have him graded late 1st/early 2nd guy. Now with that said still about 20 pick value at 54. What I like is his power and consistency. I think he was a little heavy at 280. I think with an NFL nutrition program he can drop 10 to 15 keep his power and gain even more burst. His burst now isn’t bad. He will be your Base End (LDE) not enough quickness to play against the top LTs. I don’t think you are ever going to see top end sack numbers but a consistent 5-8 sack guy a year (probably most coming from interior if he reduces down). Put a very very powerful guy with lethal hands will also greatly aid in setting the edge. Also think he has protected the long arm (meaning I think you will see him get the ball from the QB in his rush more than the sack, this will be limited going into the QBs face from the left spot but going up against the likes of Tua (lefty) will bring the Fumble into play. If down the line he leans out keeps his power and builds more burst and quickness to move to the RDE spot not only will the sacks come but the strip sacks will as well. Heck of a player we got pure football player. 
 

Zach Moss - Probably my favorite pick. And before I go on this is not a dig on Singletary, just more of a compliment of Moss. Give it a year and if he stays healthy he would be your RB1. That is how much people will love him. His vision is great, feet are great, sneaky good out of the backfield, can pass block well, runs mean. He is just as likely to run you over as he is to jump cut you. What does concern me is his Injuries. And I don’t think that they are going to go away so it is good to have two young RBs. He has around 800 carries with a vicious running style and because of that I think he gets hurt more than he should. If I am the Bills I am teaching him how to take care of his body. He doesn’t always have to be the one putting the other in the cold tub. If his vicious running will turn a 10 yard gain into a 12 yard gain (on 3rd and 4) I hope the Bills can teach him that is an opportunity to take care of your body. But I don’t want to completely change his running just have him make better choices. However as a third round pick. If you give me 1 Rookie Contract before breaking down it is a win and will take that from RBs all day long. 
 

Gabriel Davis - really like this pick as well. Now that said he is a developing player. Watching him all the time as a UCF season ticket holder there is talent there. First anytime UCF needed a play he was who they looked at (9/10 he made it for him). While at UCF he lined up eat outside. There are reasons for that because he just relied on his for given ability and UCF didn’t want to try and change it his routes are not precise. So on in breaking routes the extra 2-3 yards he lined up compared to most outside WRs helped him still get the separation with his rounded routes.  Not slow but not quick either. His speed builds over time so his routes are rounded which works in college. Not only does he have to learn more of the route tree but the nuances of running routes. He is plenty quick enough to gain separation out of breaks if fought how to do it properly. I think he is a High end WR2 ceiling (many UCF fans would kill me for saying that they think he is a legit One. I don’t). However all that said about routes. He has been working on them every day and people are saying they are getting better. Even 30 minutes after hearing his name called he was out with UCF QB running routes. the work ethic and kid are top notch. 
 

Jake Fromm - probably the surprise of the draft to a lot of people. I also really like this pick because I see him for what he is a player that likely will have a long 20 year career as a BU and eventually transitioning to a coach. His physical attributes are limited but his football mind is amazing. That is what I want in a BU an ultra smart player that if called on can come in and perform under limited reps. The value in the 5th was just too much to keep ignoring. If people think but we didn’t need him we have Barkley let me point to the NE game. We had that game won if Barkley could have been AVG. he puked himself and at that point I knew it was time to move on. I would have thought they would have gone a Vet but I applaud going with a young player. And who knows maybe by year three he is flipped for two 2nds like a Schaub trade or even a 2nd like Jimmy G. And Beane turned a 5th into multiple pick return in a couple years. Also I love his attitude. He has out performed and beat out more talented players his entire career. 
 

Tyler Bass - Love the pick as well. An ultra strong leg kicker. Kid was booming Kicks at the Senior Bowl. Posting videos of drilling 50 yarders with no approach just leg swing and 60 yarders with a 1 step approach. Love the signal drafting a kicker sends to your Vet as well. It seems the Waiver Claim mid season of McLaughlin woke Hausch up. What would drafting a kicker do. To be honest I think it is Bass’s job to lose. But perfect spot for a position group that probably is the easiest way onto the Roster. 

Isaiah Hodgins - don’t know much about him others will know more. What I do know is his hands are amazing. He catches EVERYTHING. He also has some sick quick feet for a Big WR. Watching what little I did I would put him below Davis in terms of right now. But with a higher ceiling. He could become a legit No1 WR with development. But he just has a longer climb to get their than Davis does to get to his ceiling as a WR2. 
 

Dane Jackson - I really know nothing about him. But glad they went and got a CB somewhere. I think he projects more inside than outside. But I have to defer to McD and Beane here one thing they seem to know is DBs and how to get the most out of them. 

all and all I would give this draft a solid A. Great Value all around and the did what they needed to do without reaching. On getting weapons, Youth at EDGE, a BU QB and Kicker Competition. 

 

 

Very nice write up, i pretty much agree with everything you posted. I do think that whenever a DB is drafted that you need to include Frazier name in the conversation. McD and Frazier obviously work very well together which is a huge benefit to our defense as a whole. Frazier is a amazing DC, the rookies and newly signed players improve so much due to our great coaching duo of McD and Frazier. Frazier is a huge reason our secondary has grown into what it presently is right now. It's a great time to be a Bills fan.

[MrEpsYtown]

Good work! I think I might like the Epenesa pick than most becuase he is such a perfect fit scheme wise. And he seems like the kind of guy who will not bust. Probably a really solid base end for the next ten years. At the very least he has a Derek Wolfe type of career, maybe Aaron Smith formerly of the Steeers, but I think he has some more upside than that. Definitely happy with this draft. 

[MAJBobby]

Just now, MrEpsYtown said:

Good work! I think I might like the Epenesa pick than most becuase he is such a perfect fit scheme wise. And he seems like the kind of guy who will not bust. Probably a really solid base end for the next ten years. At the very least he has a Derek Wolfe type of career, maybe Aaron Smith formerly of the Steeers, but I think he has some more upside than that. Definitely happy with this draft. 

going all the way back to the 90s will be the Phil Hansen to our Future Bruce Smith. 

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

Excellent analysis.  The biggest surprise for me was the selection of Fromm.  After thinking about this, it makes sense to me given Barkley's inconsistency.  I have also wondered if this was a preemptive move by Beane to deny him to the Cheatriots.  NE didn't draft a QB but moved quickly to sign an UDFA .  Belicheat also stated that not drafting a QB was not part of their plan.  Did Beane beat him to the pick?  We'll probably never know.

[Coach Tuesday]

48 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Wow, can’t believe the Ravens drafted Calais Campbell in the fifth! The Broncos drafted AJ Bouye and Jurell Casey in the late rounds! The 49ers found out Joe Staley was retiring and drafted Trent Williams this year and next year!

No, it’s absolutely silly. I loved the Diggs move. No one talks about players acquired by trading picks as “drafted players.” See above.

I don’t really know what the point of this is but I’ll say this, if they would’ve strongly considered Espanesa at 22 then they basically got Diggs for free.

[GaryPinC]

43 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Wow, can’t believe the Ravens drafted Calais Campbell in the fifth! The Broncos drafted AJ Bouye and Jurell Casey in the late rounds! The 49ers found out Joe Staley was retiring and drafted Trent Williams this year and next year!

No, it’s absolutely silly. I loved the Diggs move. No one talks about players acquired by trading picks as “drafted players.” See above.

Cripes, you're pathetic.  In a receiver-rich draft, in a pre-draft interview Beane explained he hates giving up first round picks and he justified the Diggs trade by considering him our first round draft pick in 2020.  That's why some of us choose to mirror Beane's thinking in this instance.

[IgotBILLStopay]

Nice writeup OP. We should revisit this thread at the end of the season again.

 

My take:

 

1. Diggs is more than worthy of pick #18 and fills the one major hole we had on the roster. We had been desperate to get that hole filled since the past trading deadline - and, Diggs is the perfect fit for that hole - perfect fit, signed on for 3 more years, great work ethic, wants to win, respects Josh Allen and wants to go to war with him. All -in all, a home run, if ever there was one.

2. Epenesa - last year this time, he was viewed as a top 5 pick. Then he had to face double teams constantly at Iowa and his sack numbers went down the first 6-7 games - but he and his coaches figured out a way to get his production up since he also started situationally rushing from the inside. One can directly credit him for being the difference maker in at least three major wins over ranked opponents for the Hawkeyes last season. Oh, and he manhandled the fins' #18 pick Anthony Jackson. I even read reports justifying Jackson at #18 that discounted the performance against Epenesa since Epenesa was elite and any other tackle would not have performed better. Now, his 40 time was atrocious - but he is not the "Uche / Hughes" kinda Defensive End who relies on twitch and speed. In fact, I am going out on a limb and calling him a poor man's JJ Watt. As late as January, based on his game tape, guys had him going top 20. And unlike other DE whose fall was justified post-combine (like Jachai Polite last year), he is a high character blue collar worker with zero attitude issues.  I will admit there is a small part of me that would have liked a mini move up (costing a fifth rounder) to #50 to draft Trevon Diggs - who is the perfect McD CB comparable to Tre White, but the main reason Beane did not do that was the continued availability of Epenesa, Dobbins, Akers (at the time I included Mims in this list - but Beane accidentally let on that the Bills did not have a second round grade on Mims) etc. - so this is a home run as well.

3. Zack Moss - We did have a minor hole on the roster for a power back to complement Singletary - and, my oh my, Zack Moss was the only remaining fitting back left for a looong time and miraculously, fell to us. Folks - dont think of him as RB2. This is RB1b to Singletary's RB1a. And with a lower workload than at college (man was he overutilized) - Moss should be able to stay healthy and produce for a long time. We have a beast mode just like the Seahawks during their SB years and a pair of complementary RBs like New Orleans with Kamara and Mark Ingram and Ravens with Dobbins and Ingram this season. Another home run. So far Beane has hit 3 for 3 with three home runs.

4. Gabe Davis - OK our scouting group has researched WRs a lot and feel Davis is undervalued. He is a tallish long ball threat since UCF basically had him go deep often and he hauled in a decent percent of these long balls (with YAC) and was a big play threat on virtually every play. But do we need him given we have Diggs, Brown, Foster and even McKenzie already available? Wasnt Bryce Hall still available? Could we have moved up 4 picks and taken James Morgan (dammit those stupid Jets picked him at #125)? Why not Jake Fromm here? Given the lack of holes available, why not take a flyer on potential first round talents (Hall) who have fallen due to injury. Guys like Myles Jack, Jaylon Smith, Jeffrey Simmons  etc. all overcame significant injuries since these guys are young. My issue is less with Gabe Davis' value  (I will take our scouting department's word that he represents value at #128) and more with what else was available (and dammit the stupid Jets picked Hall early in the 5th) - at best, a sac bunt - but likely a strike there. I do not see Davis making the roster due to ST ability just based on his 40 yard time - but his ability on contested catches is great - so at worst, he is a PS guy who can be promoted if Diggs cant go for some reason.

5. Jake Fromm - Love it. Completely unexpected that Fromm falls to the fifth round. Bills get a chance to "redeem" their 4th round "miss" on Fromm by still unexpectedly having him available. We need a backup QB - and this makes so much sense at #167 relative to the Packers' gamble with Love at #26, Philly's pick of Hurts at #53 and the Pats' several wiffs on the QB position). At worst  an RBI base hit - if he fills in well as relief for Allen and is worth a 2nd round pick two years from now. Everything about Jake Fromm - his prep, work ethic, leadership, proven winner etc. - tells me he will succeed in the NFL. 

6. Isiah Hodgins - Instantly becomes our tallest receiver. Is Beane overcompensating for his smurf collection from last year? But did we really need another WR with Duke Williams, Foster, McKenzie, Easley, Ray-Ray, Roberts and Davis above already backing up our top 3. We already had 10 WRs on the roster - do we need a 11th? I dont see Hodgins contributing on ST - he had a really slow 40 time - so how does he get on the field? likely a strike

7. Dane Jackson - I became aware of him at the senior bowl and, by all accounts, he performed really well there. Unlike WR, you can never have too many CBs and I trust McD's ability to spot CB talent- so I am quite happy to get him in the 7th. Base hit.

 

Bottomline: I dont think there is any doubt that we killed the top half of the draft. In the bottom half, I will wait till the season to see how our WR picks pan out. 

Edited April 26, 2020 by IgotBILLStopay

[nucci]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

We didn’t draft Stefon Diggs!!!

but we used our 1st pick to get him

[FireChans]

8 minutes ago, GaryPinC said:

Cripes, you're pathetic.  In a receiver-rich draft, in a pre-draft interview Beane explained he hates giving up first round picks and he justified the Diggs trade by considering him our first round draft pick in 2020.  That's why some of us choose to mirror Beane's thinking in this instance.

Seeing as Ozzie Newsome gave up a fifth rounder for Calais Campbell, why wouldn’t he consider him his fifth round pick?

 

Regardless of what Beane or this board says, we didn’t draft Stefon Diggs. The Vikings drafted at our pick because we didn’t draft anybody in the first round.

 

Christ, this is the “Sammy only cost one first round pick” double speak crap all over again.

1 minute ago, nucci said:

but we used our 1st pick to get him

 

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Wow, can’t believe the Ravens drafted Calais Campbell in the fifth! The Broncos drafted AJ Bouye and Jurell Casey in the late rounds! The 49ers found out Joe Staley was retiring and drafted Trent Williams this year and next year!

No, it’s absolutely silly. I loved the Diggs move. No one talks about players acquired by trading picks as “drafted players.” See above.

 

13 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

I don’t really know what the point of this is but I’ll say this, if they would’ve strongly considered Espanesa at 22 then they basically got Diggs for free.

Man, someone mentioned the 2016 draft earlier, and now you have me thinking, “They considered Ragland in the first!”

[Nitro]

Excellent analysis.  I am in agreement on the no WTF picks.  Prior to Beane, I was leery of the Bills drafts.   Sold picks who fill specific needs.  the y are getting into the position to be able to draft depth to groom for the future.  That is what good organizations do.  Thanks for the well written post.  It will go on your OER!    

[MAJBobby]

9 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Seeing as Ozzie Newsome gave up a fifth rounder for Calais Campbell, why wouldn’t he consider him his fifth round pick?

 

Regardless of what Beane or this board says, we didn’t draft Stefon Diggs. The Vikings drafted at our pick because we didn’t draft anybody in the first round.

 

Christ, this is the “Sammy only cost one first round pick” double speak crap all over again.

 

 

Man, someone mentioned the 2016 draft earlier, and now you have me thinking, “They considered Ragland in the first!”

Again as I said before. Draw up your draft impression thread and leave him out of it. To easy. And I still look forward to reading it. 

3 minutes ago, Nitro said:

Excellent analysis.  I am in agreement on the no WTF picks.  Prior to Beane, I was leery of the Bills drafts.   Sold picks who fill specific needs.  the y are getting into the position to be able to draft depth to groom for the future.  That is what good organizations do.  Thanks for the well written post.  It will go on your OER!    

ha ha ha ha. No longer get those though got the last one November 2018 the same day I picked up my DD214 and retirement package. 

[GunnerBill]

43 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Good work! I think I might like the Epenesa pick than most becuase he is such a perfect fit scheme wise. And he seems like the kind of guy who will not bust. Probably a really solid base end for the next ten years. At the very least he has a Derek Wolfe type of career, maybe Aaron Smith formerly of the Steeers, but I think he has some more upside than that. Definitely happy with this draft. 

 

That is exactly how I see him. I started this draft season adamant he wasn't a first rounder and ended it (even before the Bills took him) defending him as a second round pick. He was scheme specific I will say that. But there were half a dozen teams where he fitted perfectly and the Bills were one.  

[Nitro]

3 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Again as I said before. Draw up your draft impression thread and leave him out of it. To easy. And I still look forward to reading it. 

ha ha ha ha. No longer get those though got the last one November 2018 the same day I picked up my DD214 and retirement package. 

I got my final NCOER in 2005 and retired.  Great career.  

[Don Otreply]

13 minutes ago, SoTier said:

I think the Bills pretty much went BPA which I believe in.  Having a decent roster means that the team doesn't have to "reach" to fill desperate needs on either side of the ball, consequently no 'WTF picks".  Now, if the Bills can re-sign their top performers from recent drafts, they'll be on their way to doing what teams that consistently make the playoffs do -- grab talented players regardless of position rather than trying to fill holescreated by continually letting their top young starters leave in FA.

   
Beane as usual has done a great job of drafting the right players to fill the teams positional scheme needs, he has a very good crew assessing that needed talent. 
     You are absolutely correct in your assessment of how Beane has set up the team for a high likelihood of continued success, and as you said no wtf picks.  Nothing like a competent front office.  This season is going to be fun to watch unfold. ?

 

Go Bills!!!

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

23 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Again as I said before. Draw up your draft impression thread and leave him out of it. To easy. And I still look forward to reading it. 

ha ha ha ha. No longer get those though got the last one November 2018 the same day I picked up my DD214 and retirement package. 

 

Signing up for the VA and finding my 20 year old dd214 has been a joy 

[TroutDog]

Love the write up. Primary area of disagreement is saying Epenesa should lose 15 pounds. I would argue he needs the weight (and a pro-level strength program) to take his game to the next level. Playing 250 on a 6’6” frame as an end would make him much more ‘beatable’. 

3 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Signing up for the VA and finding my 20 year old dd214 has been a joy 

You can get them digitally now. Not nearly as hard as it used to be to get a replacement. Phew! ? 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, TroutDog said:

 

You can get them digitally now. Not nearly as hard as it used to be to get a replacement. Phew! ? 

 

I actually found it in an old storage tote. A minor miracle.

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Wow, can’t believe the Ravens drafted Calais Campbell in the fifth! The Broncos drafted AJ Bouye and Jurell Casey in the late rounds! The 49ers found out Joe Staley was retiring and drafted Trent Williams this year and next year!

No, it’s absolutely silly. I loved the Diggs move. No one talks about players acquired by trading picks as “drafted players.” See above.

I see both sides of this debate, but FWIW most of the national media draft grades considered Diggs In their Bills grade

[TPS]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Wow, can’t believe the Ravens drafted Calais Campbell in the fifth! The Broncos drafted AJ Bouye and Jurell Casey in the late rounds! The 49ers found out Joe Staley was retiring and drafted Trent Williams this year and next year!

No, it’s absolutely silly. I loved the Diggs move. No one talks about players acquired by trading picks as “drafted players.” See above.

The OP said he was giving his thoughts on the draft, not the draft picks.  Any analysis of the draft should include how you used your draft capital.  In this case, the most valuable draft asset was used to acquire a #1 WR.  Was it a good move to use all of that draft capital to get Diggs?  The OP answers that question as part of his "thoughts on the draft."

 

Btw, based on published trade charts, if you assume next year's R4 = R5 this year, it adds no more than 70 points to their R1 pick which gets them to pick 20, not 18.  Well played by Beane.

 

 

Edited April 26, 2020 by TPS

[yungmack]

Great analysis.