Grade the draft

[HOUSE]

9 hours ago, TroutDog said:

Ummmm...can I respond in three years? ? 

 

No...

 

[TroutDog]

4 hours ago, HOUSE said:

 

No...

 

Ok. ? 

 

Overall I like the draft. I know many aren’t high on Epinosa but I am. Also like the RB, but I’m generally opposed to taking them back to back in the third in this day and age...particularly a bruiser type with an injury history. 
 

The WR’s are very intriguing...only wish they could have an off-season: so important, especially for that position. 
 

Factor in Diggs and I give it a solid B+. 
 

Of course none of that means a thing until three years from now...thus my initial post. I get it’s fun to do this...especially now...but I’ve been watching football for well over 40 years now and recognize that some guys take longer to develop. 
 

Happy now?!!!! ? 

 

PS: love ‘House’. Great show. 
 

EDIT: after watching/listening to the picks interviews, there is a definitive trend with this regime in picking young men who are humble, deeply driven and have a higher maturity level than others. 
 

I really like having a team that has a ‘no knucklehead zone’ mentality. 

Edited April 26, 2020 by TroutDog

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

I will include diggs as he cost picks. I give the draft a B. I'm not sold on epenesa being anything special.  Otherwise solid.

[skibum]

I'm going B.

• The first two picks were very, very good.
• They took two receivers after so many were already off the board, and neither of these guys look like they are guaranteed to make the team. They conjure memories of James Hardy, Marcus Easley, etc. 
• The QB was good value, but I'm not sure Josh Allen is ready to be the mentor yet, so to me it only works if they are planning to use a roster spot for a QB3. They still need a vet there, and I don't know if sticking Fromm on the Practice Squad would be worth anyone's while. And everyone saying Fromm is an upgrade over Barkley -  Based on what? If we are comparing apples to apples, you have to go to the college days and based on that, they are very similar. And Barkley has 7 years as a pro now. 
• I liked the kicker pick. Hauschka has been unreliable and the best chance you have of developing a good kicker is getting the first one off the board. And you aren't likely to find contributors on offense or defense in round 6. 
• Beane wasn't able to trade up at all. Maybe they felt the talent was there when they were picking, but more likely other GMs weren't in the market for a bunch of 5-7 rounders. That said, I'm glad they didn't trade any of next year's top 4 picks - which may have been their best trade bait.
• Overall, they got needs filled higher in the draft, which is nice. They took fliers lower, which is better than picking suspect players to fill needs. The two WR picks look like duds to me, but maybe that's just me. 

Edited April 26, 2020 by skibum

[Buddo]

Not going to grade it as such, but I found it very underwhelming.

I thought it was a decent draft, but it just seemed incredibly safe.

Epenesa is a solid choice and good value where we took him. Realistically a 'need' in terms of needing to get younger at the position also.

Moss, again, a solid choice. Will bring some extra physicality , and a change in style to Devin.

Without looking at it too hard, you have to wonder if the values might have been able to be similar, if we had switched the two picks around, and taken Dobbins instead of Epeneza, and then found a DE with upside in the 3rd round.

I believe from some of Beane's comments, they may well have been considering that.

Problem is who would be that DE in the 3rd. My guess is that they looked hard at that, and decided that the drop off between Epenesa and whoever they were looking at, was much greater than the drop off between Dobbins and, as it turns out Moss.

Ironically, if they had taken Dobbins, I would feel a lot more excited about this draft, than the way they went - although I can easily see why that was.

Davis in the 4th I like. There needs to be competition for that 4th WR spot, and he's a bigger unit, so has a chance of being a complementary piece.

I don't have any particular problem with the Fromm pick. A future backup QB, and no doubt the value was glaring off the board at Beane. Means we will probably keep 3 Qbs this year, but I don't see that as an issue really.

A Kicker. Hauschka has had a wobble or two, and it isn't the worst idea. This kid does have a serious leg, although his 'stats' don't show that. Again, no real problem with the pick, but it hardly gets the juices going.

Another tall WR, who apparently has great hands. No real speed, but apparently does most things ok but has both a big catch radius, and good hands. A longshot to make the team, but could develop into something if we can keep him on the PS.

Probably the same sort of scenario with the CB we picked last. Don't bet against him making the roster in a big hurry though, if McDermott gets the opportunity to work with him. McCoach knows how to teach DBs.

As I said before, I think it's a solid draft, but I really don't see anything to get excited about, well apart from getting to watch what Diggs can do.

[SoCal Deek]

I give it a solid A. This is what a draft looks like when you’re finally a playoff team picking in a playoff team slot at the back of the draft, and have few glaring holes to fill. And yes, when you put in Diggs....it’s probably closer to an A+.

[BarleyNY]

IMO the only criteria to use when immediately grading a draft is: 1) were the risks/rewards for players and trades reasonable,  2) was draft capital used efficiently and 3) did it fit the overall plan and circumstances?

 

The a Diggs trade was particularly good on all three of those.  We needed a WR1 who could contribute immediately.  We sure got that for a reasonable amount of draft capital (even with his contract).  Young player who separates as well as anyone in the NFL and fit our #1 need.  Beane did really, really well here. 
 

Epenesa sure seems like a reasonable choice at 54.  His risk is that he’s a power end and is not going to beat anyone with speed.  He is so strong though that he can win with power. He can also hold the edge well and push the pocket from the edge (and maybe the middle).  I just see a slightly slower and noticeably stronger version of Shaq.  The difference between getting a player like that at 54 versus 19 can’t be overstated.  Really happy with the risk va reward here. 
 

Moss seems like a soild choice too.  Getting a really good RB in round 3 should not ever be difficult, but we really needed one.  The only real risk here is opportunity cost.  We could’ve gone with higher value position like CB or OL and gotten a good RB later.  Fine.  That’s probably true, but I’m not going to get too stressed about that.  For the record you can throw Bass into the same boat.  Analytics will tell you to never ever draft a kicker.  But I also don’t put any value on 6th and 7th round picks (and technically analytics doesn’t either) so I have no problem with that selection.  He’s a priority free agent that we automatically get to sign, just like every other 6th and 7th round pick. 
 

On the flip side of that coin analytics would love that we took players at two high value positions with our 4th and 5th round picks.  Fromm in the 5th has tremendous upside with very little risk.  Put that man on the same vitamin regimen as that weak armed college QB Tom Brady was on and see what happens.  I don’t know much about Davis, but a 4th round WR in this draft is a good move.  Lots of WR talent got pushed down due to the sheer number of quality prospects at the position.  And it’s a high value position which makes the risk-reward even better.

 

That got long!  It’s difficult to not like the job Beane did with this draft, especially with the Diggs trade included.  All of these players won’t work out, but there’s very little to complain about when I look at the shots Beane took. 

[BillsFanSD]

I was slightly bummed when we took Epenesa over Dobbins, but getting Moss in the third just goes to show why Beane is the GM and I'm not.  I far prefer Epenesa + Moss to Dobbins + whatever DE we would have drafted in round three.  If you include Diggs -- and I'm not sure how can't include him since he cost us our first round pick -- I think this draft is a pretty solid A.  Obviously things will different three years from now with the benefit of hindsight.

 

Diggs -- Legitimate #1 WR who doesn't need to be developed or adjust to the NFL.  Should be a game-altering weapon from Week 1.  Instantly makes Brown and Beasley better.  Diggs contributes so much more in the current window than anybody we would have drafted at #22 that it makes that trade look like a steal for us.

 

Epenesa -- Consistently disruptive throughout his career in a power conference.  His ceiling isn't as high as more athletic guys, but his floor is very high, making this a safe, low-variance pick.  I expect that he'll have a long career as a key contributor to a DL rotation.  I also expect that he'll be more productive for us than he would for a lot of other teams, since he doesn't have to be "the guy" here. Epenesa strikes me as a Phil Hansen type who can exploit all the attention that his teammates get.

 

Moss -- I love this pick.  If you were to genetically engineer the perfect guy to split carries with Singletary, Moss is what you would come up with.  As much as I like Singletary, it would not surprise me in the slightest if Moss emerges as the lead back with 60%-65% of the carries.  The only negative associated with this pick is that RBs with his running style tend to have short careers in the NFL, but our focus should be on the upcoming 3-4 year window.  Not to be too mercenary about it, but I'm not too worried about what happens after Moss plays out his rookie deal.

 

Think about where we were two years ago.  An ultra-raw rookie QB.  Our leading receiver was a rookie UDFA.  An aging Shady in the backfield.  Arguably only one lineman who had any business starting for an NFL team.  Jason Croom was our most reliable TE.  All of those problems are fixed to varying degrees.  Our WRs and RBs are outstanding IMO.  The line isn't perfect by any means, but it's solid across the board (well, RT maybe) and we have quality depth.  There's reason for optimism at TE.  It's all up to Allen now.

 

Davis -- Good size, good speed, needs development.  I read someplace that his route tree is actually better than what shows up on tape, and of course it isn't his fault if the offense he played in was a little gimmicky.  But really I don't know anything about Davis besides what I've read in the past 24 hours.  I do know that I love that Beane continued to add competition at this position.  I really don't see Foster or Duke as good depth players, and I would like upgrades there.

 

Fromm -- I can't make up my mind on this pick.  "Game manager" sounds like exactly what you're looking for in a backup QB.  But you can't fix arm strength, and I worry that Fromm will end up being a very rich man's Nathan Peterman.  I guess if he develops into Trent Edwards only with more leadership, that would be a success.  I believe Beane when he says that Fromm was BPA by a good margin, and I trust this front office to know what they're doing.

 

Bass -- Obviously I know next to nothing about this player, but I know that this team needs to improve at PK.  

 

Hodgins, Jackson -- No opinion, except I like Hodgins' size and hands.  I'm honestly surprised we even made these picks and didn't trade them away at some point.  If either of these players make the roster, that would be great.  It's really hard to imagine seven rookies making our team though. 

 

The first three picks (including Diggs) were great and addressed clear needs.  The rest of the picks were logical, with no head-scratchers or weird reaches.  They won't all pan out, but I understand what Beane was thinking with each of them.  Looks good to me.

[Big Turk]

B+ although I kind of think its silly to grade anything prior to 3 or 4 years when we see how the picks do.

 

Really we are just grading what we think will happen in our minds versus what actually will happen.

[maryland-bills-fan]

Diggs   absolutely a no brainer.  Good move.

 

Epenesa-    That was a good pick but Dobbins would have been better.  A top 3 running back and a good receiver. It would have given us a better weapon and notice how the Ravens snatched him up in a heartbeat.  And we might eat crow and see him beat us in the playoffs.   BUT..... Epensea was a bargain because he should have been a low 1st round pick,,,,, he fits Buffalo's offensive line scheme where defensive ends hold the edge, push the pocket and the interior DT is more involved in getting to the QB. ...... AND we got, not one of the top 5 RB's but a guy who is just slightly behind them and a good step above the rest of the pack- some of who were drafted earlier.  Sometimes it is good to be lucky,

 

Moss  ,,, He is just a step below the top 5, so getting him makes up a little for getting a backup DE for this year.  He will probably replace Singletary before the season is over.  What I wanted at RB was somebody who would look acceptable as an outside WR or slot guy.  That is the coming trend and I wanted Swift of Edward-Helare. They were gone at 32 and 35, so I have some support for that idea.  Moss did play in the PAC10 and is said to be a good receiver- I can hope there is more there than what little I know.  Maybe he has some capability there that hasn't been seen.

 

Fromm    Good pick. I don't think that arm strength knock is a big deal.  He might not throw a 30 yard out pattern, but the rest of them are there.  He has the touch and smarts under pressure already.  I think he will be a great backup and is a legit starter.

 

Big wide receivers:    The run typical speeds for 220+ guys.  They ran limited route trees in college, but do have the attitude to learn more.  This type was not sexy this year and one may be a good different type of weapon, who can come in and be schemed to win on a mismatch with a smaller DB.  That is the coaches job, but he has to have the players to use.

 

A "safe" draft.  I would have liked to have moved up 5 spots in the 2nd to get Swift or Edwards-Helaire.  I also wanted a pony for Christmas.

Edited April 26, 2020 by maryland-bills-fan

[Kelly the Dog]

This draft becomes an A in the first quarter of the first game when Josh throws a 20 yard bullet on the run to Diggs who takes it to the house.