CSBill Posted April 25, 2020 Posted April 25, 2020 https://www.pff.com/news/draft-ranking-the-100-best-available-2020-nfl-draft-prospects 1
tumaro02 Posted April 25, 2020 Posted April 25, 2020 BPA is an interesting theory. It is used because its easy to explain and understand. However, hidden inside this acronym is the more often MIPN (Most Impactful Player Now). It is never too far beneath the surface. Here are some Brandon Beane quotes from the post draft presser last night. The Bills were not supposed to have a "need". BPA was used by Beane and everyone. Then this: 2:17 “If I got a guy sticking out on a board with a need I’m going to try to get him” 8:40 We won’t reach out of the realm, If I got a guy in the mid 4 and a guy at the bottom of 4 I might lean to need especially if its one I think this guy is going to have a bigger impact immediately now that we’re moving in the later rounds. I think we talked about it earlier these first couple picks I was truly going to sit there and best player that’s what we were going to take um the running back was a probably the bigger need of the two if you want to compare that but with that said there were other guys that came off too that would have been in the mix so it was a really easy for Zach where he was sitting on the board but tomorrow hopefully it will be the best player available but if its close and there’s a need um we may aim to the need. I think its clear that BPA is for the masses because its easier to understand but its really MIPN that drives Beane's decisions. 1
Buddo Posted April 25, 2020 Posted April 25, 2020 Beane has always been pretty transparent about his approach. As was Buddy Nix. BPA is, was, and always has been, a myth. One way or another, teams have factored 'need' into their decision making process all along. It might be as Beane appears to do it now, where if there are picks available with the same, or close grades, then the one that is a 'need' wins out. Another approach I believe has been to add an additional point to a grade for a positional need, and then picking accordingly. Bottom line is that need is always a factor. As to the notion that draft strategy hinges on this spurious MIPN acronym, well, that's just not happening. For individual pick decisions, when things are close, then it could be a consideration, just like need can be, but you only have to look at who was picked immediately after Epeneza, (Dobbins) to realize that it's not any sort of driving force. By that criteria, you can comfortably argue that Moss should have been taken ahead of Epeneza, as he will very likely have more of an impact on the team this coming season (assuming it happens). 1
maryland-bills-fan Posted April 25, 2020 Posted April 25, 2020 I agree completely. We have all these posters saying "BPA" and then they immediately start talking about their favorate positions. "We don't draft for need!! We should take the BPA. Here are the best DE and WR that we should draft!!!" How can they slide from one extreme viewpoint to the complete opposite viewpoint in the same breath and not sense how crazy they are talking? Look at ANY mock draft or post draft analysis and see how they suggest/explain how "this was a good pick because they lost MR.XYZ and needed a player at position ABC". Geesh ! Before I retired, I always got into trouble for asking questions when similar split-brain positions were advanced. 1
No_Matter_What Posted April 25, 2020 Posted April 25, 2020 I wonder if we take Weaver if he is somehow available.
maryland-bills-fan Posted April 25, 2020 Posted April 25, 2020 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Buddo said: Beane has always been pretty transparent about his approach. As was Buddy Nix. BPA is, was, and always has been, a myth. One way or another, teams have factored 'need' into their decision making process all along. It might be as Beane appears to do it now, where if there are picks available with the same, or close grades, then the one that is a 'need' wins out. Another approach I believe has been to add an additional point to a grade for a positional need, and then picking accordingly. Bottom line is that need is always a factor. As to the notion that draft strategy hinges on this spurious MIPN acronym, well, that's just not happening. For individual pick decisions, when things are close, then it could be a consideration, just like need can be, but you only have to look at who was picked immediately after Epeneza, (Dobbins) to realize that it's not any sort of driving force. By that criteria, you can comfortably argue that Moss should have been taken ahead of Epeneza, as he will very likely have more of an impact on the team this coming season (assuming it happens). I have been beating the drum about trying to get one of the top 5 running backs. Especially, getting one that is also a natural receiver like Swift and Edward-Helaine. (who went 35 and 32). But I think, they got Epenesa about 30 picks below were he should have/might have been drafted. Too much of a super value to get a good 1st round guy 2/3 down the second round. Thank the Lord, that my #6 RB was available at #86. If offered the choice of {Dobbins and a #10 DE} or _{Epensea and the 6th RB,} I would take what we did. Edited April 25, 2020 by maryland-bills-fan 1
Einstein's Dog Posted April 25, 2020 Posted April 25, 2020 10 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said: I have been beating the drum about trying to get one of the top 5 running backs. Especially, getting one that is also a natural receiver like Swift and Edward-Helaine. (who went 35 and 32). But I think, they got Epenesa about 30 picks below were he should have/might have been drafted. Too much of a super value to get a good 1st round guy 2/3 down the second round. Thank the Lord, that my #6 RB was available at #86. If offered the choice of {Dobbins and a #10 DE} or _{Epensea and the 6th RB,} I would take what we did. I had been of the opinion/hope the Bills were going Edge in the 2nd. Didn't think they would be able to get Epenesa, what a break, thought more in the line of T Lewis. Give the new DC his choice. It is a long/intermediate winning strategy. These guys are close to 10 mill a year, a good RB like Fournette is a 4 million player. Need to jettison/replace Murphy/Hughes and probably pretty Addison within the next 2-3 years. Need to make cash room for the hopeful budgeting of the franchise QB Allen and some others. Getting a non prima donna RB like Moss will keep the RB room young, hungry, developing w Josh, and cost contained. Now they can get their developing CB. This guy will be in line to move out one of the underperforming expensive vets, whoever that is Gaines/Norman or maybe Wallace (hopefully not but he really needs to improve a lot, not all draft picks work out). Great draft IMO. Great value at positions that the team can use young players.
Don Otreply Posted April 25, 2020 Posted April 25, 2020 BPA has always been a myth, need is always factored into player acquisitions. Being that regardless of draft position, teams don’t draft players they don’t feel they have a need for, that being a starter or all the way down to developmental selections. One can play semantics with descriptions, but at the end of the day BPA is need driven. It’s good that Beane has said that need is a determining factor, maybe folk will come to understand. BPA, you keep saying this, I do not think it means what you think it means... Go Bills!!! 1
Airbornetrooper Posted April 25, 2020 Posted April 25, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, Don Otreply said: BPA has always been a myth, need is always factored into player acquisitions. Being that regardless of draft position, teams don’t draft players they don’t feel they have a need for, that being a starter or all the way down to developmental selections. One can play semantics with descriptions, but at the end of the day BPA is need driven. It’s good that Beane has said that need is a determining factor, maybe folk will come to understand. BPA, you keep saying this, I do not think it means what you think it means... Go Bills!!! Unless you are the 2010 Bills trying to justify taking CJ Spiller with the 10th overall pick ?♂️ Edited April 25, 2020 by Airbornetrooper
Buddo Posted April 25, 2020 Posted April 25, 2020 29 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said: I have been beating the drum about trying to get one of the top 5 running backs. Especially, getting one that is also a natural receiver like Swift and Edward-Helaine. (who went 35 and 32). But I think, they got Epenesa about 30 picks below were he should have/might have been drafted. Too much of a super value to get a good 1st round guy 2/3 down the second round. Thank the Lord, that my #6 RB was available at #86. If offered the choice of {Dobbins and a #10 DE} or _{Epensea and the 6th RB,} I would take what we did. I don't really have a problem with the way it panned out. I think Epeneza was way ahead of any other DE on their board by then, so the drop off would make sense to take him. My concern is that Dobbins was taken next by the Ravens, and I'm not sure that is a good thing, for other teams. ;( The difficulty really, would be that in taking Dobbins, where do you go with the 3rd round pick? WR? DB? Chances are a DE taken there is much more of a development guy, and you might find a similar potential later still. I don't know how the Bills had Dobbins rated, but Beane did mention RB as a possibility there, so I would guess it would be him, but ultimately, I think Bene has made the right decision to get the best combination of the 2 picks, that he could.
maryland-bills-fan Posted April 25, 2020 Posted April 25, 2020 (edited) With Edward-Helaire and Swift.... are we seeing a new wave of hybrid RB/WR? That is what I really wanted us to get in the draft. Let's hope Moss is a good receiver so we can expand the playbook. Edited April 25, 2020 by maryland-bills-fan
Don Otreply Posted April 25, 2020 Posted April 25, 2020 Just now, Airbornetrooper said: Unless you are the 2010 trying to justify taking CJ Spiller with the 10th overall pick ?♂️ The team felt they had a need, it’s that simple, good or bad choice doesn’t change that need is always a determining factor. Yes our teams GMs have made bad choices over the the past years, that doesn’t change what determines draft selections. Beane even says need is a determining factor. Go Bills!!! 1
Milanos Milano Posted April 25, 2020 Posted April 25, 2020 47 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said: I wonder if we take Weaver if he is somehow available. Yes please. We need more players with a mean bend.
djp14150 Posted April 25, 2020 Posted April 25, 2020 Is BPA for best player or best potential... 4th and 5th round are players who can help you now 6th and 7th are more projects that you don’t expect stuff from them this next season. They have some raw skill but need more training or development. one thing I’d like to see..teams have a 3 -5 player development list which exempts them from playing but also exempts them from waivers.
djp14150 Posted April 25, 2020 Posted April 25, 2020 12 minutes ago, Don Otreply said: The team felt they had a need, it’s that simple, good or bad choice doesn’t change that need is always a determining factor. Yes our teams GMs have made bad choices over the the past years, that doesn’t change what determines draft selections. Beane even says need is a determining factor. Go Bills!!! I get the need piece in drafting Spiller as a complementary back. But you don’t burn two top 20 picks on running backs. they could have drafted a RB in the 3rd or 4th round and it would have bern fine.
Don Otreply Posted April 25, 2020 Posted April 25, 2020 Just now, djp14150 said: I get the need piece in drafting Spiller as a complementary back. But you don’t burn two top 20 picks on running backs. they could have drafted a RB in the 3rd or 4th round and it would have bern fine. All that is true, the point i was making is that a teams needs, real or perceived are a determining factor in all draft selections, its always been that way. Yes some GMs are way better at it than others, we’re talking humans here after all... Go Bills!!!
Rk_Bills86 Posted April 25, 2020 Posted April 25, 2020 I'm hoping we pick up one of the following(no particular draft slot - just in general): EDGE CURTIS WEAVER, BOISE STATE IOL NETANE MUTI, FRESNO STATE CB BRYCE HALL, VIRGINIA S GENO STONE, IOWA T BEN BARTCH, ST. JOHN’S LB AKEEM DAVIS-GAITHER, APPALACHIAN STATE (I feel like we really need another LB) WR JAUAN JENNINGS, TENNESSEE CB JOHN REID, PENN STATE DI JOHN PENISINI, UTAH IOL LOGAN STENBERG, KENTUCKY IOL CALVIN THROCKMORTON, OREGON WR ANTONIO GANDY-GOLDEN, LIBERTY IOL MICHAEL ONWENU, MICHIGAN T CAMERON CLARK, CHARLOTTE DI LEKI FOTU, UTAH LB MARKUS BAILEY, PURDUE (if healthy a steal) WR DONOVAN PEOPLES-JONES, MICHIGAN (I'm shocked he's fallen this far and would take him in a heartbeat) IOL SHANE LEMIEUX, OREGON TE JARED PINCKNEY, VANDERBILT (sneaky late pick - basically the knox/sweeny/caleb of the draft this year imo) EDGE JONATHAN GARVIN, MIAMI DI TEAIR TART, FIU
Lurker Posted April 25, 2020 Posted April 25, 2020 35 minutes ago, Don Otreply said: BPA has always been a myth, need is always factored into player acquisitions. I'd add "scheme fit" and value to need. It's not just checking off a box on a menu, but projecting that player into what you do as an offense or defense. Taking a guy who can set an edge (like Epenesa), which is critical in McD's defense vs. going with a higher rated but undersized speed rusher who can't defend the run. Or picking a RB like Moss for his complimentary skill set to Singletary, rather than another RB who again, might be higher rated. To me, that's a lot better approach than simply picing BPA and I'm glad Beane operates the way he does... 1
NoSaint Posted April 25, 2020 Posted April 25, 2020 1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said: I agree completely. We have all these posters saying "BPA" and then they immediately start talking about their favorate positions. "We don't draft for need!! We should take the BPA. Here are the best DE and WR that we should draft!!!" How can they slide from one extreme viewpoint to the complete opposite viewpoint in the same breath and not sense how crazy they are talking? Look at ANY mock draft or post draft analysis and see how they suggest/explain how "this was a good pick because they lost MR.XYZ and needed a player at position ABC". Geesh ! Before I retired, I always got into trouble for asking questions when similar split-brain positions were advanced. it’s pretty simple to explain that if 5-10 guys are of similar grades that the one filling a hole, or harder to get elsewhere would be selected. You have still gone “BPA” generally speaking. Or if you have a big hole to fill you move to where that position has value instead of taking them way out of line it’s not crazy split brain bi polar logic. I’d be annoyed if you were asking too many questions when it’s that simple
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