RD 2, Pick 54: DE AJ Epenesa, University of Iowa

[Mopreme]

Jeremy Chin should have been the pick in the 2nd if RB wasn’t the answer.   Epenesa will likely be a marginal starter as a rotating player which to me is a waste in the 2nd where impact starters should be picked. 

[Ga boy]

10 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

I think Moss gives us what we need at RB next year.  He’s not gonna break any long runs, but he can catch, block, and get you tough yards.  Maybe take a chance on a guy like Marlin Mack who’s coming back from an injury.  I don’t think drafting Dobbins would’ve moved the needle very much and I still think Epenesa could blossom.  

Stay with Moss and get a mauler OL at 30.  Someone who can protect the best player on the team.

[SirAndrew]

18 minutes ago, Mopreme said:

Jeremy Chin should have been the pick in the 2nd if RB wasn’t the answer.   Epenesa will likely be a marginal starter as a rotating player which to me is a waste in the 2nd where impact starters should be picked. 

People are quick to criticize anyone who questions Epenesa, but I have major concerns about him. The weight loss and strength issues are huge to me. It seems like the team didn’t get the guy they assumed they were drafting. How many times do those type of players turn into something special ? I haven’t given up on him, but there are some red flags. 

[whatdrought]

32 minutes ago, DJB said:

 

To me its now a waste however. 

 

Epenesa to me wasn't great last year and Dobbins would have filled the RB need that we glaringly have. 

 

Now we still have a RB need and have to hope Harris is there. Instead we could have had Dobbins, and use our 1st this year to select a quality player to fill a different need. 

 

your dobbins pushing is ridiculous.

 

for one “glaring need at rb” is over dramatic and completely misses the wholistic issues of our running game.

 

for two, dobbins was an okay back in the most run heavy offense in the league. He didn’t light the world on fire at all. 

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

27 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

PSA that in the opinion of some who spend a lot of time watching film, no running back could have filled the run game need we so glaringly have unless they somehow managed to persuade the line, TE etc to run block better in front of them.

Nate Geary recently guested on Locked On Bills with Joe Marino and their conversation was just loaded with real good analysis. Geary feels the O-line and (my boy) Daboll share equal blame for the run game struggles...a point I thought was interesting was that he said we ran less gap/power runs and actually ran a lot of outside zone this year.

 

His opinion was that you shouldn't run so much outside zone with Singletary and Moss because they don't have the footspeed to really threaten the edge. With those backs he said you should work largely inside the tackle box. He said if Fred Warner is on the other side and you run outside zone, Warner can just slowplay and force the HB to commit to a hole first, and then just go make the tackle. Because he's not afraid of those guys getting the edge on him he never has to over-pursue and open up a cutback lane the way outside zone is designed for. He thinks they're limited in what they can do with these HBs.

Edited February 13, 2021 by 2020 Our Year For Sure

[DJB]

42 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

PSA that in the opinion of some who spend a lot of time watching film, no running back could have filled the run game need we so glaringly have unless they somehow managed to persuade the line, TE etc to run block better in front of them.

 

While I agree that either the run scheme, blocking scheme or the players we have up front aren't good enough, still doesn't take away the fact we don't have a capable #1 RB that is a threat on the ground or through the air. 

 

Dobbins would have been a huge upgrade on both Moss and Singletary. 

 

I actually like Moss. But he's a notch below Dobbins. 

 

Singletary I've never liked. 

[GunnerBill]

17 minutes ago, SirAndrew said:

People are quick to criticize anyone who questions Epenesa, but I have major concerns about him. The weight loss and strength issues are huge to me. It seems like the team didn’t get the guy they assumed they were drafting. How many times do those type of players turn into something special ? I haven’t given up on him, but there are some red flags. 

 

It was the team who told him to drop weight. He dropped more than they asked him too and struggled to put it back on and maintain it per Beane's end of season presser.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

19 minutes ago, 2020 Our Year For Sure said:

Nate Geary recently guested on Locked On Bills with Joe Marino and their conversation was just loaded with real good analysis. Geary feels the O-line and (my boy) Daboll share equal blame for the run game struggles...a point I thought was interesting was that he said we ran less gap/power runs and actually ran a lot of outside zone this year.

 

His opinion was that you shouldn't run so much outside zone with Singletary and Moss because they don't have the footspeed to really threaten the edge. With those backs he said you should work largely inside the tackle box. He said if Fred Warner is on the other side and you run outside zone, Warner can just slowplay and force the HB to commit to a hole first, and then just go make the tackle. Because he's not afraid of those guys getting the edge on him he never has to over-pursue and open up a cutback lane the way outside zone is designed for. He thinks they're limited in what they can do with these HBs.

 

It's been posted and discussed elsewhere on this site, but Erik Turner and Anthony Prohaska ("Disguised Coverage") did a detailed breakdown of the Bills run game issues.   A point (I felt) they made was that the gap runs just weren't working, which is why the Bills got away from them.  Benching then cutting Spain may have been big in this regard.  They have a detailed figure about how the % of gap vs zone runs changed last year vs this year. 

 

 

Turner and Prohaska call it 60% run blocking (not just on the line - TE also), 20% RB and 20% scheme.  I would go with that. 

 

They show that the run blocking faults were not necessarily where people think (Ford, Winters and Boettger were bad at times, but Williams and Feliciano also blew it and Knox was inconsistent)

 

I would tend to go with not pointing the finger quite so much at Daboll...he was clearly working to find run plays that the players he had out there could execute.  He said as much after the Tenn. game "I have to draw up plays that the players can execute".  Daboll is far too smart to go away from something that's working to something that's less suited to our backs "just because".

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

15 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

your dobbins pushing is ridiculous.

 

for one “glaring need at rb” is over dramatic and completely misses the wholistic issues of our running game.

 

for two, dobbins was an okay back in the most run heavy offense in the league. He didn’t light the world on fire at all. 

I agree. Also Dobbins had 1/6 of his rushing yards in a meaningless week 17 game. 16% of his yearly total in 1 game. Give Zack his offensive line and Dobbins our offensive line and let's see what happens. My guess is their stats flip.

[BillsFan130]

10 minutes ago, DJB said:

 

While I agree that either the run scheme, blocking scheme or the players we have up front aren't good enough, still doesn't take away the fact we don't have a capable #1 RB that is a threat on the ground or through the air. 

 

Dobbins would have been a huge upgrade on both Moss and Singletary. 

 

I actually like Moss. But he's a notch below Dobbins. 

 

Singletary I've never liked. 

Perfectly said all around IMO.

 

Yes I think we all can agree the run blocking wasn't good.

 

But to think Singletary wasn't a problem in our run game is really missing part of the boat.

 

Dobbins IMO would have been the better pick than Espenesa

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It's been posted and discussed elsewhere on this site, but Erik Turner and Anthony Prohaska ("Disguised Coverage") did a detailed breakdown of the Bills run game issues.   A point (I felt) they made was that the gap runs just weren't working, which is why the Bills got away from them.  Benching then cutting Spain may have been big in this regard.  They have a detailed figure about how the % of gap vs zone runs changed last year vs this year. 

 

 

Turner and Prohaska call it 60% run blocking (not just on the line - TE also), 20% RB and 20% scheme.  I would go with that. 

 

They show that the run blocking faults were not necessarily where people think (Ford, Winters and Boettger were bad at times, but Williams and Feliciano also blew it and Knox was inconsistent)

 

I would tend to go with not pointing the finger quite so much at Daboll...he was clearly working to find run plays that the players he had out there could execute.  He said as much after the Tenn. game "I have to draw up plays that the players can execute".  Daboll is far too smart to go away from something that's working to something that's less suited to our backs "just because".

 

Yea I might go a tad more on the backs because even in some of the plays on that cover 1 video that they put on the line there are holes there, however, fleeting and the reason they close so fast is not just the line not holding up but also the backs not having the burst. I'd definitely go run blocking #1, the backs #2 and scheme #3 in my order of blame. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Yea I might go a tad more on the backs because even in some of the plays on that cover 1 video that they put on the line there are holes there, however, fleeting and the reason they close so fast is not just the line not holding up but also the backs not having the burst. I'd definitely go run blocking #1, the backs #2 and scheme #3 in my order of blame. 

 

That's fair.  If the backs showed more burst and committment they could get to the holes faster.  I did see Singletary squeeze through some phone booths at times, so there's that.

 

To me it doesn't matter too much what the exact percentage is, the point is that the OL blocking rightly takes the largest share of the blame, the backs take a significant share, and while I'm sure there were "tells" to our run play calls that hurt us some of the stuff people say about "no creativity" blah blah doesn't gibe with the plays that were actually designed and called.

[Solomon Grundy]

10 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I might go a tad more on the backs because even in some of the plays on that cover 1 video that they put on the line there are holes there, however, fleeting and the reason they close so fast is not just the line not holding up but also the backs not having the burst. I'd definitely go run blocking #1, the backs #2 and scheme #3 in my order of blame. 

I was riding the Jonathan Taylor train hard last draft

[PrimeTime101]

I don't know why threads like this keep getting refreshed.. to much "I told you so" BS

 

 

Defensive Line is missing a solid one tech DT that draws double teams... We did not have that this year thus the apposing O'Line could pick and choose who to double and when.

 

 

Get a SOLID one tech DT then lets see how the rest fills it... For now we keep going up at bat for edge players but till we get that solid DT 1 Tech? this book is not fully written yet...

 

Congrats on being right once out of 3 times.

[SirAndrew]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It was the team who told him to drop weight. He dropped more than they asked him too and struggled to put it back on and maintain it per Beane's end of season presser.

Thanks, I’d forgotten the team asked him to lose that weight. I still worry he’ll struggle to fit the mold of what they’re looking for. It was just his rookie season, so there’s still hope. He just looked really small, and lacked the strength he showed at Iowa. We have to hope he finds that spot where he’s at his best. 

[GunnerBill]

15 minutes ago, SirAndrew said:

Thanks, I’d forgotten the team asked him to lose that weight. I still worry he’ll struggle to fit the mold of what they’re looking for. It was just his rookie season, so there’s still hope. He just looked really small, and lacked the strength he showed at Iowa. We have to hope he finds that spot where he’s at his best. 

 

Agree there is reason to be concerned, but I did think there were some flashes after the bye. Fingers crossed they get his body right and then we can get a better handle on who he is at this level.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

45 minutes ago, SirAndrew said:

Thanks, I’d forgotten the team asked him to lose that weight. I still worry he’ll struggle to fit the mold of what they’re looking for. It was just his rookie season, so there’s still hope. He just looked really small, and lacked the strength he showed at Iowa. We have to hope he finds that spot where he’s at his best. 

 

I think what the team wanted ultimately was to shift his body composition - get him to lower his bodyfat %.

 

It probably hurt him a lot in that regard to have none of the usual OTAs and everything virtual

 

I've heard that it's very very hard for players to build muscle during the season, that with all the wear and tear on their bodies they work hard to just maintain

[John from Riverside]

3 hours ago, DJB said:

 

To me its now a waste however. 

 

Epenesa to me wasn't great last year and Dobbins would have filled the RB need that we glaringly have. 

 

Now we still have a RB need and have to hope Harris is there. Instead we could have had Dobbins, and use our 1st this year to select a quality player to fill a different need. 

 

Its hard to judge draft picks in their first years.   I willl def concede that LAST year Dobbins was more important to his team then AJE was to his.

[DCofNC]

I’m hopeful AJ was in the adjustment phase of, no more dough boy, bring that power at 15lbs lighter and have the speed to turn the corner at the pro level.   He flashed some out there, kid has a nose for the ball.  I wanted Dobbins at that pick, but it is what it is.

[BillsFan1988]

On 2/13/2021 at 7:07 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I might go a tad more on the backs because even in some of the plays on that cover 1 video that they put on the line there are holes there, however, fleeting and the reason they close so fast is not just the line not holding up but also the backs not having the burst. I'd definitely go run blocking #1, the backs #2 and scheme #3 in my order of blame. 

So in a way our Running gm was like a microwavable pizza . The toppings , ingredients and dough all almost as bad as each other. Lol.