GoBills808 Posted April 24, 2020 Author Posted April 24, 2020 Just now, YattaOkasan said: Just to note he can be both 1) Really good against a small sample set of 8 man boxes (thus not holding back his YPC). 2) Still faced a few number of 8 man boxes and have his YPC drop if he faced more. His vision and contact balance is still so amazing. Cover 1 did the Pittsburgh game and while the fumbles were rough some of his vision is insane (he jump cuts away from a guy coming from behind him; how?). It COULD be both, certainly, but from what I've seen it's more likely that it isn't.
Mat68 Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 He is a 3 down back. He needs a back than can play any situation like himself. I feel confident with him getting a carry 2 and 10, 3 and 10, 4th and goal. He is so good at making the first man miss that he should be on the field when it matters. I think another talented back is needed to give him rest. You cant scheme and back a role in the offense over singeltary. 3
Big Turk Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 Singletary is going to be a star...last year was only the tip of the iceberg with him 3
maryland-bills-fan Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 (edited) .He didn't play in short yardage situations, so that inflated his yard per carry. They used the QB or Gore for those. He ran in a lot of 3rd and 25 situations and got 15 yards. Better punting field position and no risk of a pick6. The QB was used in short yardage situations rather than him. The QB had more than half the rushing yards of Singletary. He was about 16th in the league in rushing if you give him credit for 4 games he missed. (expected for an undersized guy running mainly between the tackles). I think yards gained is a good measure of a RB. I think TD's scored are a good measure for a RB. He is not top 10 in those- more like top 16. He had 4 TD's total for the year. We need a guy with break away speed and big play ability. We need a guy who is good in the passing game. We need a guy who can line up as a WR and be dangerous with single coverage. He was about #44 in RB receiving. NO, the Bills are smart enough to have passed a lot to him if it were effective. That is not the excuse. Singletayr is you complementary back and not the RB1A on a top team. Edited April 24, 2020 by maryland-bills-fan 1
maryland-bills-fan Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 13 minutes ago, Mat68 said: He is a 3 down back. He needs a back than can play any situation like himself. I feel confident with him getting a carry 2 and 10, 3 and 10, 4th and goal. He is so good at making the first man miss that he should be on the field when it matters. I think another talented back is needed to give him rest. You cant scheme and back a role in the offense over singeltary. They why did they use Gore and Allen in those goal line situations? The bills schemed around his limitations and made use of what he did well.
GoBills808 Posted April 24, 2020 Author Posted April 24, 2020 1 minute ago, Gugny said: @GoBills808 .... I love you for this thread. Yes I know
Gugny Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 31 minutes ago, matter2003 said: Singletary is going to be a star...last year was only the tip of the iceberg with him Absolutely agree.
Ethan in Cleveland Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 Half or more of the examples are not 8 guys in the box. There may be 8 guys in the picture but it is because the formation has a WR in motion or in close to the O-line. This draws the defender in but also add an extra blocker - the WR. A stacked box is when a team brings down an extra DB and leaves only 3 DBs in zone or cover zero in the backfield. 4
Royale with Cheese Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 And some of you people wanted to sign Derrick Henry.
Ethan in Cleveland Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 56 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said: They why did they use Gore and Allen in those goal line situations? The bills schemed around his limitations and made use of what he did well. Because McD falls in love with the wrong guys - see Murphy, Gore, DiMarco and Peterman 1
GreggTX Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 (edited) He certainly passes the eye test no matter what the numbers say. He is special. Bring in Carlos Hyde to back him up and we're strong at RB, IMO. What our running game really needs is a huge upgrade at RT and RG, but Beans has done nothing to improve the OL this offseason. Trent Williams appears appears to be the only option, but does Beane think he's a process guy? Would he even sign for the right price? Ford needs to move inside, but the prospect of starting Nsekhe or Williams at RT is pretty scary. We ranked pretty high in rushing yards as a team, but much of that was due to Allen's scrambling ability. Edited April 24, 2020 by GreggTX
Mango Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 55 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said: Half or more of the examples are not 8 guys in the box. There may be 8 guys in the picture but it is because the formation has a WR in motion or in close to the O-line. This draws the defender in but also add an extra blocker - the WR. A stacked box is when a team brings down an extra DB and leaves only 3 DBs in zone or cover zero in the backfield. I was thinking the same thing. Also a bunch of the stills are post snap not pre snap. You can’t take a picture of the field after they hand the ball off and yell “8 guys chasing the guy with the ball, must have stacked the box”.
John from Riverside Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said: .He didn't play in short yardage situations, so that inflated his yard per carry. They used the QB or Gore for those. He ran in a lot of 3rd and 25 situations and got 15 yards. Better punting field position and no risk of a pick6. The QB was used in short yardage situations rather than him. The QB had more than half the rushing yards of Singletary. He was about 16th in the league in rushing if you give him credit for 4 games he missed. (expected for an undersized guy running mainly between the tackles). I think yards gained is a good measure of a RB. I think TD's scored are a good measure for a RB. He is not top 10 in those- more like top 16. He had 4 TD's total for the year. We need a guy with break away speed and big play ability. We need a guy who is good in the passing game. We need a guy who can line up as a WR and be dangerous with single coverage. He was about #44 in RB receiving. NO, the Bills are smart enough to have passed a lot to him if it were effective. That is not the excuse. Singletayr is you complementary back and not the RB1A on a top team. Nope 1
Prickly Pete Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, YattaOkasan said: Just to note he can be both 1) Really good against a small sample set of 8 man boxes (thus not holding back his YPC). 2) Still faced a few number of 8 man boxes and have his YPC drop if he faced more. His vision and contact balance is still so amazing. Cover 1 did the Pittsburgh game and while the fumbles were rough some of his vision is insane (he jump cuts away from a guy coming from behind him; how?). he makes guys nervous when he approaches, and then look silly. Singletary has been making people take note. This guy has some nice analysis, and the plays he shows aren't just TD's, mostly just regular runs, and he's not some guy from Buffalo, acting like a homer. This guy even mentions that Singletary appears to have been gaining respect from opponents. Edited April 24, 2020 by 32ABBA 1
MJS Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 3 hours ago, The Dean said: For the record, if he only had 8 plays and you looked at ALL of them, it isn't a "sample" it's a "census". And sample sizes don't mean anything when you have a verified census. The 8 plays are a sample. Census is specifically having to do with people, I believe. I think what you are describing is the difference between a statistic and a parameter. Parameter is a characteristic of 100% of your population (population being a group of people, things, animals, or phenomena that share common characteristics.) A statistic is a characteristic of a sample of the population. In this case, I think the true population would be the total carries of all running backs, perhaps ever, because we are trying to decide whether or not his averages are good or not, and that takes referencing basically all our knowledge about carries and their characteristics. So in this case, 8 carries is an extremely small sample size. Even all his carries from last year are a small sample size (which makes sense because it takes at least a couple years of play for people to come to a consensus about a player, because our reference is our knowledge of players that came before and who are currently playing).
GoBills808 Posted April 24, 2020 Author Posted April 24, 2020 17 minutes ago, 32ABBA said: he makes guys nervous when he approaches, and then look silly. Singletary has been making people take note. This guy has some nice analysis, and the plays he shows aren't just TD's, mostly just regular runs, and he's not some guy from Buffalo, acting like a homer. This guy even mentions that Singletary appears to have been gaining respect from opponents. Nice video! 1
Big Turk Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 2 hours ago, GreggTX said: He certainly passes the eye test no matter what the numbers say. He is special. Bring in Carlos Hyde to back him up and we're strong at RB, IMO. What our running game really needs is a huge upgrade at RT and RG, but Beans has done nothing to improve the OL this offseason. Trent Williams appears appears to be the only option, but does Beane think he's a process guy? Would he even sign for the right price? Ford needs to move inside, but the prospect of starting Nsekhe or Williams at RT is pretty scary. We ranked pretty high in rushing yards as a team, but much of that was due to Allen's scrambling ability. The biggest improvement in analytic studies with the offensive lines are made via continuity not bringing in new players necessarily. 1
maryland-bills-fan Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 4 hours ago, GoBills808 said: Yes I know Get a room you two.
longtimebillsfan Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 8 hours ago, GoBills808 said: Recently @thebandit27 @Blokestradamus and I had a discussion about Singletary's sparkling 5.1 yards per carry (good for 4th in the league for qualifying RBs). The point of contention was that his average was inflated due to seeing a very low amount of 8man boxes, as illustrated by ESPN's NextGen stats ranking him dead last among RBs facing such defenses at a rate of only 5.3% of his total carries. For reference, Tevin Coleman faced the highest amount of 8man at 40.15% of his rushes. That is a large discrepancy. Singletary had 151 total attempts last season, and some quick math says he only faced what ESPN refers to as an '8 man box' eight times throughout the season. If true, that could explain his high YPA...he was getting carries vs nickel and taking advantage of some good playcalling from Daboll. Not having anything better to do I pulled up his highlight reel (more on this later) to see what it showed. Examples below- ...one of his first carries against the Jets, went for 21 yards. another carry against the Jets, this one went for 13. gained 14 yards here more to follow It would be interesting to see what the league average is for rushing attempts vs 8 men in the box.
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