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Posted (edited)

Just for interest to see how some Big Boards rate the running backs. I think these rankings are better than my opinion about the relative merits and draft values of the players and would be of interest to people concerning the economic and value use of our 2nd and third round pick.

 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/prospect-rankings

18   Dobbins

23   Swift

25   Taylor

37   Helaire

76   Moss

84   Gibson

88   Benjamin

Akens not listed   correction   #41 in this board

https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/04/19/draft-big-board-updated-top-255-prospects

23   Swift

29   Taylor

33   Dobbins

44   Heliare

66   Akers

88   Moss

106  Benjamin

107  Gibson

https://walterfootball.com/nfldraftbigboard

14   Swift

17   Taylor

32   Helaire

46   Akers

48   Moss

50   Dobbins

77   Dillon

92   Perine

https://www.cleveland.com/browns/2020/04/nfl-mock-draft-2020-see-the-composite-big-board-featuring-the-top-100-prospects.html

The rankings used for this year’s big board come from NFL.com’s Gil Brandt from April 13Pro Football Focus from April 14, USA Today Draft Wire’s Luke Easterling from April 17, NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah from April 20 and SB Nation’s Dan Kadar from April 21.

29   Swift

38   Taylor

49   Dobbins

49   Helaire

65   Akers

77   Moss

http://www.tankathon.com/nfl/big_board

33   Swift

45   Taylor

48   Dobbins5

51   Helaire

65   Akers

80   Moss

https://draftwire.usatoday.com/2020/04/17/2020-nfl-draft-rankings-big-board-top-300/3/

17   2Taylor  

21   Swift

42   Dobbins

47   Akers

49   Helaire

59   Moss

 

Overall averages for the top RB

24   Swift

28   Taylor

44   Hilaire

48   Dobbins

....Bills pick at #54

55   Akers   still at 55

71 Moss

...Bills pick at #86

Edited by maryland-bills-fan
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Posted (edited)

It will be interesting because that is where they rank - yet most experts think at most 1 RB in RD 1 and maybe none.  
 

RBs as a position drop significantly in the draft and QBs are pushed up.  RBs are an undervalued position because having a top back - like the Giants, Cleveland, and Dallas - does not get you into the playoffs.  
 

QBs are pushed up because they are so much more important.  Same with DE, OT, CB - more premium positions.

 

The draft values on RBs are useless because the position as a whole is the least valued position in the game.  UDFA like in Denver can come in and be just as good or better than high round draft picks. 
 

 

Edited by Rochesterfan
Posted

I'm higher on them, but generally the same result as your conclusion. 

17 Swift

24 Taylor 

29 Dobbins 

36 Edwards-Helaire 

55 Akers

76 Moss

 

We also pick at 128, and I've got 

113 Darrynton Evans 

127 Ke'Shawn Vaughn 

131 Eno Benjamin 

Posted

The AThletic has a Consensus Big Board that compiles the numbers using 50-60 boards, and with the exception of Dobbins, you're close:

22 Swift

27 Taylor

29  Dobbins

45  CEH

57 Akers

76  Moss

 

Posted

I just think there is no chance Bills take a RB @ 54. If a big name receiver drops to them that they can't say no to or they go defense. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

FYI Akers is 41 on TDN

Must have missed it. thanks.

1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said:

It will be interesting because that is where they rank - yet most experts think at most 1 RB in RD 1 and maybe none.  
 

RBs as a position drop significantly in the draft and QBs are pushed up.  RBs are an undervalued position because having a top back - like the Giants, Cleveland, and Dallas - does not get you into the playoffs.  
 

QBs are pushed up because they are so much more important.  Same with DE, OT, CB - more premium positions.

 

The draft values on RBs are useless because the position as a whole is the least valued position in the game.  UDFA like in Denver can come in and be just as good or better than high round draft picks. 
 

 

Well, teams that are struggling to get into the playoff...maybe they draft a RB high because it is the best pick to get the best and quickest improvement?   And yes,  low draft picks in CB, WR and offensive line often perform better than high draft picks.  And you point is??

Posted

I would be happy with any of the top 4 at #54 or with some sort of move up.  Akers, because of the o-line problems and quirky offense scheme could be a bust or could be better than his ranking.  He has more risk.   We lack a RB who is a good WR and Swift, E-H and Dobbins are good as a wide out (Swift & E-H) and pass catcher (Dobbins).   They would be my choice, but they might be gone.  Anyway, if we take one of the top 4, I would not consider it a reach.

Posted

I would love to get one of those top 4 at 54, but if they feel one of the EDGE rushers or premium WR's are there, then we should probably take them and go after either Devonta Freeman,  Carlos Hyde, Lamar Miller, Crowell, Montgomery or Chris Thompson in that order and draft the best RB left in the 3rd or 4th.

Posted

1. J.K Dobbins
2. D Swift
3. J Taylor
4. C Edwards-Helaire
5. C Akers
6. AJ Dillon
7. Z Moss
8. J Kelly
9. K Vaughn
10. A Gibson
11. L Perine
12. D Evan's
13. A McFarland 
14. D Dallas
15. M Warren

16. E Benjamin

Posted

I see a ton of A.J. Dillon love around here.

 

i can already see it now, 3rd round passes, people scream for Dillon, 4th round passes still no Dillon, 5th round, cmon man we gotta be taking Dillon here he’s fallen so far!

 

Someone takes him in the 6,7th , or goes undrafted. Can’t believe we didn’t take that guy he’s a stud. Cut in training camp by 1 of 32 teams. 

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, BillsRdue said:

I would love to get one of those top 4 at 54, but if they feel one of the EDGE rushers or premium WR's are there, then we should probably take them and go after either Devonta Freeman,  Carlos Hyde, Lamar Miller, Crowell, Montgomery or Chris Thompson in that order and draft the best RB left in the 3rd or 4th.

premium edge rushers will not last to #54.   Projects,  hopes and development players will be there.  We will NOT get somebody who will start this season.

 

 

 

 

4 hours ago, BillsRdue said:

I would love to get one of those top 4 at 54, but if they feel one of the EDGE rushers or premium WR's are there, then we should probably take them and go after either Devonta Freeman,  Carlos Hyde, Lamar Miller, Crowell, Montgomery or Chris Thompson in that order and draft the best RB left in the 3rd or 4th.

And we will go into a late season game with a chance to make the playoffs.  The field is covered with snow, the snow is coming in horizontal, the score is 3 to 7 and wide receivers are elephants walking on slipper ice.  We might have a 4th round RB, playing against a 1st or 2nd round pick.  There is maybe a 1 in 8 chance that we have the better RB on the field. ....   WTF. !!!!

Edited by maryland-bills-fan
Posted
5 hours ago, TPS said:

The AThletic has a Consensus Big Board that compiles the numbers using 50-60 boards, and with the exception of Dobbins, you're close:

22 Swift

27 Taylor

29  Dobbins

45  CEH

57 Akers

76  Moss

 

my rankings are pretty close to consensus it seems. Spot on for dobbins and moss. Unfortunately that probably means I'm way off...

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Posted

It is interesting.  I grew up in the 60=70's and RB was one of the most critical positions.  Teams had a starting halfback (speed) and a fullback (power).  Go back to the 50's and early 60's and teams had two halfbacks and a fullback, one halfback was really a wing back (also called a flanker) that could line up on either side and be used as a receiver  - this eventually evolved into a full time "wide receiver". 

 

Today the defenses are so much faster (and better) that the game has change to predominantly passing with the 3 receiver and one tailback (no fullback)  formation as  the norm.  

 

There are a lot of very good backs to pick from.  I suspect we draft one in the 3rd round but either the 2nd or 4th would not be a surprise.  I would like whoever we pick to be more of a power runner than Singletary, and have the ability to pass block, then release and catch short passes that can be turned into big gains.  Josh needs this to get out of a play when the downfield reads are not there. 

 

Even without a #1 this is a very interesting draft.  Our confidence in Beane and his staff makes it so. 

 

Posted
6 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

It will be interesting because that is where they rank - yet most experts think at most 1 RB in RD 1 and maybe none.  
 

RBs as a position drop significantly in the draft and QBs are pushed up.  RBs are an undervalued position because having a top back - like the Giants, Cleveland, and Dallas - does not get you into the playoffs.  
 

QBs are pushed up because they are so much more important.  Same with DE, OT, CB - more premium positions.

 

The draft values on RBs are useless because the position as a whole is the least valued position in the game.  UDFA like in Denver can come in and be just as good or better than high round draft picks. 
 

 

I agree with you generally, and that kind of thinking leads to this:

 

Beane says, and I believe him, that he goes strictly BPA in the first couple of rounds.   If I understand what he does, his rankings of BPA are not generally position rated.   So if the running backs actually have big board ratings like that, and if GMs generally agree with you, those running backs will fall, and they will begin to stick out as the BPA on the board.    What does Beane do when he sees a clear BPA falling, and that guy is at a position of need?  Beane has told us that is exactly the situation where he will look to trade up.   

 

So if these lists are more or less correct and Beane sees a Dobbins, Swift or Taylor falling into the second round and Beane thinks he's a fit, Beane will be looking to move up.  

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Posted
12 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree with you generally, and that kind of thinking leads to this:

 

Beane says, and I believe him, that he goes strictly BPA in the first couple of rounds.   If I understand what he does, his rankings of BPA are not generally position rated.   So if the running backs actually have big board ratings like that, and if GMs generally agree with you, those running backs will fall, and they will begin to stick out as the BPA on the board.    What does Beane do when he sees a clear BPA falling, and that guy is at a position of need?  Beane has told us that is exactly the situation where he will look to trade up.   

 

So if these lists are more or less correct and Beane sees a Dobbins, Swift or Taylor falling into the second round and Beane thinks he's a fit, Beane will be looking to move up.  


I agree it will be interesting.  I think they build those boards on athletic modeling and RBs tend to model well.  When it gets to how the GMs rate them - my guess is there are many factors that pull into that and position is part of that.  
 

Based on everything Beane has said over the last several years with regards to the draft - if he has similar rankings and one of those guys is available and is head and shoulders above others - he will take him.  
 

If Beane has the RB and a CB, OT, or DE available with similar grades at 54 - then he has stated he looks at positional depth both on the team and on the board.  If he looks at the information they have put together and thinks they can get less drop off at RB with a 3rd or 4th round selection because there is more depth in the draft at that position - I would guess he would take a BPA at a position with less draft depth.

 

The hard part is we will never know exactly what his board or his reasoning is.

 

I think the general prevailing ideas around the league is that if there is elite talent (Barkley/Elliott) you take that high - other than that you wait until they are far and away the best talent on the board because even elite RBs barely move a win/loss meter.  I think Buffalo may be in a good position for that train of thought.  
 

Most teams seem to subscribe to the have 3 or 4 guys and don’t worry at all about where you got them.  KC had a terrible running back group and they were Super Bowl Champs, SF running back by committee, NE last year had 4/5 RBs to handle the load.  The Rams had Gurley (big time lead back) and replaced him with a mid season street FA to get to the Super Bowl.  
 

If the Bills get a guy that falls to them and is highly ranked great, if not the difference with a 3rd, 4th, 5th round guy will be very small - the fit is more important for this team.

Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, BillsRdue said:

I would love to get one of those top 4 at 54, but if they feel one of the EDGE rushers or premium WR's are there, then we should probably take them and go after either Devonta Freeman,  Carlos Hyde, Lamar Miller, Crowell, Montgomery or Chris Thompson in that order and draft the best RB left in the 3rd or 4th.

Which edge rushers do you speak of?

 

edit:  I feel the only edge rusher I’d be happy with at 54 is Uche and he’s more of a LB/situational pass rusher, similar to Lorax

Edited by NewEra
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