maryland-bills-fan Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 (edited) Just for interest to see how some Big Boards rate the running backs. I think these rankings are better than my opinion about the relative merits and draft values of the players and would be of interest to people concerning the economic and value use of our 2nd and third round pick. https://thedraftnetwork.com/prospect-rankings 18 Dobbins 23 Swift 25 Taylor 37 Helaire 76 Moss 84 Gibson 88 Benjamin Akens not listed correction #41 in this board https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/04/19/draft-big-board-updated-top-255-prospects 23 Swift 29 Taylor 33 Dobbins 44 Heliare 66 Akers 88 Moss 106 Benjamin 107 Gibson https://walterfootball.com/nfldraftbigboard 14 Swift 17 Taylor 32 Helaire 46 Akers 48 Moss 50 Dobbins 77 Dillon 92 Perine https://www.cleveland.com/browns/2020/04/nfl-mock-draft-2020-see-the-composite-big-board-featuring-the-top-100-prospects.html The rankings used for this year’s big board come from NFL.com’s Gil Brandt from April 13, Pro Football Focus from April 14, USA Today Draft Wire’s Luke Easterling from April 17, NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah from April 20 and SB Nation’s Dan Kadar from April 21. 29 Swift 38 Taylor 49 Dobbins 49 Helaire 65 Akers 77 Moss http://www.tankathon.com/nfl/big_board 33 Swift 45 Taylor 48 Dobbins5 51 Helaire 65 Akers 80 Moss https://draftwire.usatoday.com/2020/04/17/2020-nfl-draft-rankings-big-board-top-300/3/ 17 2Taylor 21 Swift 42 Dobbins 47 Akers 49 Helaire 59 Moss Overall averages for the top RB 24 Swift 28 Taylor 44 Hilaire 48 Dobbins ....Bills pick at #54 55 Akers still at 55 71 Moss ...Bills pick at #86 Edited April 24, 2020 by maryland-bills-fan 1
Rochesterfan Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 (edited) It will be interesting because that is where they rank - yet most experts think at most 1 RB in RD 1 and maybe none. RBs as a position drop significantly in the draft and QBs are pushed up. RBs are an undervalued position because having a top back - like the Giants, Cleveland, and Dallas - does not get you into the playoffs. QBs are pushed up because they are so much more important. Same with DE, OT, CB - more premium positions. The draft values on RBs are useless because the position as a whole is the least valued position in the game. UDFA like in Denver can come in and be just as good or better than high round draft picks. Edited April 23, 2020 by Rochesterfan
BuffaloHokie13 Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 I'm higher on them, but generally the same result as your conclusion. 17 Swift 24 Taylor 29 Dobbins 36 Edwards-Helaire 55 Akers 76 Moss We also pick at 128, and I've got 113 Darrynton Evans 127 Ke'Shawn Vaughn 131 Eno Benjamin
TPS Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 The AThletic has a Consensus Big Board that compiles the numbers using 50-60 boards, and with the exception of Dobbins, you're close: 22 Swift 27 Taylor 29 Dobbins 45 CEH 57 Akers 76 Moss
ALLEN1QB Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 I just think there is no chance Bills take a RB @ 54. If a big name receiver drops to them that they can't say no to or they go defense. 1
maryland-bills-fan Posted April 23, 2020 Author Posted April 23, 2020 1 hour ago, DCOrange said: FYI Akers is 41 on TDN Must have missed it. thanks. 1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said: It will be interesting because that is where they rank - yet most experts think at most 1 RB in RD 1 and maybe none. RBs as a position drop significantly in the draft and QBs are pushed up. RBs are an undervalued position because having a top back - like the Giants, Cleveland, and Dallas - does not get you into the playoffs. QBs are pushed up because they are so much more important. Same with DE, OT, CB - more premium positions. The draft values on RBs are useless because the position as a whole is the least valued position in the game. UDFA like in Denver can come in and be just as good or better than high round draft picks. Well, teams that are struggling to get into the playoff...maybe they draft a RB high because it is the best pick to get the best and quickest improvement? And yes, low draft picks in CB, WR and offensive line often perform better than high draft picks. And you point is??
maryland-bills-fan Posted April 23, 2020 Author Posted April 23, 2020 I would be happy with any of the top 4 at #54 or with some sort of move up. Akers, because of the o-line problems and quirky offense scheme could be a bust or could be better than his ranking. He has more risk. We lack a RB who is a good WR and Swift, E-H and Dobbins are good as a wide out (Swift & E-H) and pass catcher (Dobbins). They would be my choice, but they might be gone. Anyway, if we take one of the top 4, I would not consider it a reach.
1st Ammendment NoMas Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 I would love to get one of those top 4 at 54, but if they feel one of the EDGE rushers or premium WR's are there, then we should probably take them and go after either Devonta Freeman, Carlos Hyde, Lamar Miller, Crowell, Montgomery or Chris Thompson in that order and draft the best RB left in the 3rd or 4th.
Just Joshin' Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 Dobbins @#6 on the Walter rankings is a farce.
DJB Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 1. J.K Dobbins 2. D Swift 3. J Taylor 4. C Edwards-Helaire 5. C Akers 6. AJ Dillon 7. Z Moss 8. J Kelly 9. K Vaughn 10. A Gibson 11. L Perine 12. D Evan's 13. A McFarland 14. D Dallas 15. M Warren 16. E Benjamin
hjnick Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 AJ Dillon not in the top 100... Pick this dude in the 4th/5th round. 1
gonzo1105 Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 I see a ton of A.J. Dillon love around here. i can already see it now, 3rd round passes, people scream for Dillon, 4th round passes still no Dillon, 5th round, cmon man we gotta be taking Dillon here he’s fallen so far! Someone takes him in the 6,7th , or goes undrafted. Can’t believe we didn’t take that guy he’s a stud. Cut in training camp by 1 of 32 teams. 1
maryland-bills-fan Posted April 23, 2020 Author Posted April 23, 2020 (edited) 4 hours ago, BillsRdue said: I would love to get one of those top 4 at 54, but if they feel one of the EDGE rushers or premium WR's are there, then we should probably take them and go after either Devonta Freeman, Carlos Hyde, Lamar Miller, Crowell, Montgomery or Chris Thompson in that order and draft the best RB left in the 3rd or 4th. premium edge rushers will not last to #54. Projects, hopes and development players will be there. We will NOT get somebody who will start this season. 4 hours ago, BillsRdue said: I would love to get one of those top 4 at 54, but if they feel one of the EDGE rushers or premium WR's are there, then we should probably take them and go after either Devonta Freeman, Carlos Hyde, Lamar Miller, Crowell, Montgomery or Chris Thompson in that order and draft the best RB left in the 3rd or 4th. And we will go into a late season game with a chance to make the playoffs. The field is covered with snow, the snow is coming in horizontal, the score is 3 to 7 and wide receivers are elephants walking on slipper ice. We might have a 4th round RB, playing against a 1st or 2nd round pick. There is maybe a 1 in 8 chance that we have the better RB on the field. .... WTF. !!!! Edited April 23, 2020 by maryland-bills-fan
BuffaloHokie13 Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 5 hours ago, TPS said: The AThletic has a Consensus Big Board that compiles the numbers using 50-60 boards, and with the exception of Dobbins, you're close: 22 Swift 27 Taylor 29 Dobbins 45 CEH 57 Akers 76 Moss my rankings are pretty close to consensus it seems. Spot on for dobbins and moss. Unfortunately that probably means I'm way off... 1
Bob in STL Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 It is interesting. I grew up in the 60=70's and RB was one of the most critical positions. Teams had a starting halfback (speed) and a fullback (power). Go back to the 50's and early 60's and teams had two halfbacks and a fullback, one halfback was really a wing back (also called a flanker) that could line up on either side and be used as a receiver - this eventually evolved into a full time "wide receiver". Today the defenses are so much faster (and better) that the game has change to predominantly passing with the 3 receiver and one tailback (no fullback) formation as the norm. There are a lot of very good backs to pick from. I suspect we draft one in the 3rd round but either the 2nd or 4th would not be a surprise. I would like whoever we pick to be more of a power runner than Singletary, and have the ability to pass block, then release and catch short passes that can be turned into big gains. Josh needs this to get out of a play when the downfield reads are not there. Even without a #1 this is a very interesting draft. Our confidence in Beane and his staff makes it so.
Shaw66 Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 6 hours ago, Rochesterfan said: It will be interesting because that is where they rank - yet most experts think at most 1 RB in RD 1 and maybe none. RBs as a position drop significantly in the draft and QBs are pushed up. RBs are an undervalued position because having a top back - like the Giants, Cleveland, and Dallas - does not get you into the playoffs. QBs are pushed up because they are so much more important. Same with DE, OT, CB - more premium positions. The draft values on RBs are useless because the position as a whole is the least valued position in the game. UDFA like in Denver can come in and be just as good or better than high round draft picks. I agree with you generally, and that kind of thinking leads to this: Beane says, and I believe him, that he goes strictly BPA in the first couple of rounds. If I understand what he does, his rankings of BPA are not generally position rated. So if the running backs actually have big board ratings like that, and if GMs generally agree with you, those running backs will fall, and they will begin to stick out as the BPA on the board. What does Beane do when he sees a clear BPA falling, and that guy is at a position of need? Beane has told us that is exactly the situation where he will look to trade up. So if these lists are more or less correct and Beane sees a Dobbins, Swift or Taylor falling into the second round and Beane thinks he's a fit, Beane will be looking to move up. 1
Rochesterfan Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 12 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: I agree with you generally, and that kind of thinking leads to this: Beane says, and I believe him, that he goes strictly BPA in the first couple of rounds. If I understand what he does, his rankings of BPA are not generally position rated. So if the running backs actually have big board ratings like that, and if GMs generally agree with you, those running backs will fall, and they will begin to stick out as the BPA on the board. What does Beane do when he sees a clear BPA falling, and that guy is at a position of need? Beane has told us that is exactly the situation where he will look to trade up. So if these lists are more or less correct and Beane sees a Dobbins, Swift or Taylor falling into the second round and Beane thinks he's a fit, Beane will be looking to move up. I agree it will be interesting. I think they build those boards on athletic modeling and RBs tend to model well. When it gets to how the GMs rate them - my guess is there are many factors that pull into that and position is part of that. Based on everything Beane has said over the last several years with regards to the draft - if he has similar rankings and one of those guys is available and is head and shoulders above others - he will take him. If Beane has the RB and a CB, OT, or DE available with similar grades at 54 - then he has stated he looks at positional depth both on the team and on the board. If he looks at the information they have put together and thinks they can get less drop off at RB with a 3rd or 4th round selection because there is more depth in the draft at that position - I would guess he would take a BPA at a position with less draft depth. The hard part is we will never know exactly what his board or his reasoning is. I think the general prevailing ideas around the league is that if there is elite talent (Barkley/Elliott) you take that high - other than that you wait until they are far and away the best talent on the board because even elite RBs barely move a win/loss meter. I think Buffalo may be in a good position for that train of thought. Most teams seem to subscribe to the have 3 or 4 guys and don’t worry at all about where you got them. KC had a terrible running back group and they were Super Bowl Champs, SF running back by committee, NE last year had 4/5 RBs to handle the load. The Rams had Gurley (big time lead back) and replaced him with a mid season street FA to get to the Super Bowl. If the Bills get a guy that falls to them and is highly ranked great, if not the difference with a 3rd, 4th, 5th round guy will be very small - the fit is more important for this team.
TPS Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 2 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: my rankings are pretty close to consensus it seems. Spot on for dobbins and moss. Unfortunately that probably means I'm way off... It's an interesting piece. Here's the link if you have a subscription: https://theathletic.com/1758405/2020/04/20/2020-consensus-big-board-top-300-nfl-draft-prospects/
NewEra Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 (edited) 6 hours ago, BillsRdue said: I would love to get one of those top 4 at 54, but if they feel one of the EDGE rushers or premium WR's are there, then we should probably take them and go after either Devonta Freeman, Carlos Hyde, Lamar Miller, Crowell, Montgomery or Chris Thompson in that order and draft the best RB left in the 3rd or 4th. Which edge rushers do you speak of? edit: I feel the only edge rusher I’d be happy with at 54 is Uche and he’s more of a LB/situational pass rusher, similar to Lorax Edited April 23, 2020 by NewEra 1
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