4merper4mer Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 If the top 1 million fans entered a survivor pool of sorts using the draft, how many picks would it take to eliminate 999,999 of them? Could even one in a million nail the entire first round? I'd say probably not even close. My guess is the furthest anyone would get would be 17 or 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ehfeuh57 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Last year 99% of participants would have been out at pick 4. This would be the most complicated of equations because you would have to assign weights to each player(top 60 players?) and their likelihood of going in each position before you even start the math. and those are all arbitrary based on whose assigning those. An equal weighted permutation between all available draftees would be wildly innacurate. look through previous contests would be the best way to get this data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hjnick Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Trades would make it almost impossible to make it. Let's say you get to pick 25, from 25-32 there are normally a good amount of trades to get someone before the end of the round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Hammersticks Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Still more probable than getting a perfect NCAA bracket, I would imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 1 hour ago, hjnick said: Trades would make it almost impossible to make it. Let's say you get to pick 25, from 25-32 there are normally a good amount of trades to get someone before the end of the round. Trades do make it even more difficult, but even if the NFL outlawed trades for a year, or if each pick was just #1, #2, #3, with who does the pick completely eliminated as a factor, it isn't almost impossible, it's beyond reasonable probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machine gun kelly Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 How can anyone know whether it is LA or Miami who makes the trade to 3, or does Detroit want to stay put? I know we’re all a little stir crazy with the quarantine, but this one is a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Brown Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 5 hours ago, DrDare said: Last year 99.99% of participants would have been out at pick 4. Mayock and Gruden would've made it to 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackFergy Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 I’m usually in the 89% - 92% range. Takes a lot of work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 5 hours ago, Johnny Hammersticks said: Still more probable than getting a perfect NCAA bracket, I would imagine. I think when you factor in the open ended possibility of trades the draft would actually be worse odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4merper4mer Posted April 22, 2020 Author Share Posted April 22, 2020 8 hours ago, DrDare said: Last year 99% of participants would have been out at pick 4. This would be the most complicated of equations because you would have to assign weights to each player(top 60 players?) and their likelihood of going in each position before you even start the math. and those are all arbitrary based on whose assigning those. An equal weighted permutation between all available draftees would be wildly innacurate. look through previous contests would be the best way to get this data. If correct that 99% go out every 4 picks that leave 10k people after 4, 100 after 8 and just one after 12. That makes my 17-18 guess a bad one. I'd guess that even 12 might be a stretch because the very top is probably easier than the next tier and so on. It it would be a pretty cool contest for DraftKings or someone to set up. Everyone throws in $1 and the last man standing takes all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Even when Mike Mayock was being fed info straight from the horses’ mouths, he still only got 12-15 picks right in his mock drafts. There is no chance that anyone could ever nail a perfect first round. Ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Even when Mike Mayock was being fed info straight from the horses’ mouths, he still only got 12-15 picks right in his mock drafts. There is no chance that anyone could ever nail a perfect first round. Ever. I'm pretty sure 2015 was my best year ever. I got 10 player/team matches and 26 first round players correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 17 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: I'm pretty sure 2015 was my best year ever. I got 10 player/team matches and 26 first round players correct. Last year was my best. 8 correct matches of team/player/slot and 2 correct matches of team/player in the wrong slot. One correct match of player/slot but wrong team. I was also off by one draft slot on 6 other players, and correctly predicted 2 trades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warren Zevon Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 41 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said: If correct that 99% go out every 4 picks that leave 10k people after 4, 100 after 8 and just one after 12. That makes my 17-18 guess a bad one. I'd guess that even 12 might be a stretch because the very top is probably easier than the next tier and so on. It it would be a pretty cool contest for DraftKings or someone to set up. Everyone throws in $1 and the last man standing takes all. We should do a thread like this on draft night. Everyone can post in the thread with their picks for pick 1, pick 2, etc, and you drop out of the thread once you get a pick wrong. There will be one poster standing at the end of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4merper4mer Posted April 22, 2020 Author Share Posted April 22, 2020 38 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Even when Mike Mayock was being fed info straight from the horses’ mouths, he still only got 12-15 picks right in his mock drafts. There is no chance that anyone could ever nail a perfect first round. Ever. Well Fergy is posting his mock on Saturday night and I think he has a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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