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Bandit's Annual Mock

thebandit27

By thebandit27
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BuffaloHokie13 All Pro

BuffaloHokie13

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3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Thanks for the comments everyone.

 

 I may be in the minority, but I actually find it even more fun analyzing the draft when the Bills don’t have a first round pick.

All the variable before our pick is driving me nuts, but I'm excited.

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thebandit27 Hall of Famer

thebandit27

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24 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

All the variable before our pick is driving me nuts, but I'm excited.


See I like the idea that the pressure is off. You just sit back, wait to see how the board unfolds, and pick the top player available at a premium position.

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BuffaloHokie13 All Pro

BuffaloHokie13

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1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:


See I like the idea that the pressure is off. You just sit back, wait to see how the board unfolds, and pick the top player available at a premium position.

For the life of me I still don't know how Leroi knew Darby not only would be there, but would be our pick. Astonishing.

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FireChans All Pro

FireChans

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1 hour ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Unless we trade someone I don't see OL happening. Especially early. Maybe if a RT falls, but I think the FO wants to give Ford more time, unfortunately.

Are you over Ford? He was pretty highly rated as a prospect.

29 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

For the life of me I still don't know how Leroi knew Darby not only would be there, but would be our pick. Astonishing.

Leroi was Monos.

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qwksilver Veteran

qwksilver

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Nice work as usual.

Just can't see how the Jests end up with that freak. Can't see Chargers passing on who ever the Phish don't select. I also Think Phish trade up to 3 to get the QB they love and Lions still get their man.

Haven't seen any TB mocks a RB (I think that fits).

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Royale with Cheese Hall of Famer

Royale with Cheese

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4 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

As many of you know, I do one and only one mock draft every year. Some of you appreciate this, and hence I continue to post it here for your review/approval/outright mockery. I’m not a particularly good prognosticator, as I will tend to average between 6 and 10 matches of team-to-player in a given year, and will also manage to correctly identify 24-26 first round selections.

 

 

Typical disclaimers: what is shown below is not necessarily what I would do in each team’s situation, but rather what I believe will happen come Thursday night.  Also, be nice in the comments; we’re in quarantine after all.

 

 

Now, without any further ado, I present to you Bandit’s 2020 mock draft…

 

 

1. Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow-QB/LSU

 

 

Zac Taylor wants his own QB; a fact that was made evident to all when he chose to bench Andy Dalton for Ryan Finley during the 2019 season. Burrow set an NCAA record with 60 TD passes as a senior, but is that one year of production a harbinger of things to come, or simply a flash in the pan? One thing is for sure, having AJ Green, Tyler Boyd, John Ross, Joe Mixon, and Geo Bernard in the fold will provide him with ample skill players to aid in his transition.

 

 

2. Washington Redskins: Chase Young-EDGE/Ohio State

 

 

Why would a team that ranked 10th in the NFL with 46 sacks in 2019 take an EDGE rusher with the #2 pick? 6’5”, 264 lbs, 34” arms, 10” hands, and 27 sacks with 35.5 TFLs over the last 2 years; that’s why. Young is the best player in the draft, and will join a front 7 that features former first-round picks P.R. Kerrigan, Jonathan Allen, DaRon Payne, and Montez Sweat in what Jack Del Rio hopes will be a dominant unit in DC. Sort of makes a nice parallel to when a team with four former first-round DLmen took a pass rusher from Ohio State at No. 2 overall last year…worked out pretty well for them.

 

 

3. Detroit Lions: Jeffrey Okudah-CB/Ohio State

 

 

There’s been a lot of chatter about a trade-down here, but I can’t see a HC/GM combo whose jobs are on the line passing on their pick of the litter. With Darius Slay out of the picture, the Lions need a CB1 to add to a unit that allowed the most air yards to opposing QBs in the league in 2019. Okudah has everything teams want in their corners: height, arm length, speed, and instincts. If Matt Patricia can’t make it work with him in the defensive backfield, it’ll be time to move on.

 

 

4. New York Giants: Tristan Wirfs-OT/Iowa

 

 

After investing a top-10 pick in Daniel Jones last year, Dave Gettlemen must be sick knowing that the Giants allowed 74 QB hits in 2019; only the tanking Dolphins allowed more. Despite handing Nate Solder a huge FA contract two offseasons ago, the tackle positions are still a mess in the Big Apple. Wirfs is a prototypical OT with outstanding athleticism and natural power. He also has positional flexibility, and his presence should bring out the best in both Jones and super-back Saquon Barkley.

 

 

5. Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa-QB/Alabama

 

 

Maybe my evaluation is getting to me too much, but I’m not buying the Tua slide. I know Alabama had 4 likely first-round picks at WR. I know they had an all-star OL. I know they run the ball a ton. I also know that when a guy averages over 11 yards per attempt over a two year time span with 76 TDs and 9 INTs, he’s doing something right. You want a kid that can throw the ball? Move around in the pocket? Handle pressure? Be a winner? Tua’s that kid. Brian Flores and Chris Grier may be gambling a bit on his health, but talent typically wins out.

 

 

6. Los Angeles Chargers: Andrew Thomas-OT/Georgia

 

 

I really want to give them Justin Herbert because I believe in drafting QBs. But not unlike the Lions before them, this is a team that probably needs to win sooner rather than later…despite that sneaky little contract extension they gave Anthony Lynn in the offseason. And if there’s one theme that carries from year to year in the draft, it’s that tackles always get over-drafted. Thomas may not have the highest upside of the 2019 tackle class, but he’s solid all around and may be the most pro-ready at the LT position. Lynn was able to put together a top-10 offense with Tyrod Taylor, a speedy pass-catching RB, and a LT from Georgia when he was in Buffalo, so why not try to do it again?

 

 

7. Carolina Panthers: Justin Herbert-QB/Oregon

 

 

You can talk about tanking, you can talk about signing Bridgewater, you can talk about the pro-readiness of their offensive roster and point out that a need pick is more appropriate, but this pick has always reeked of QB to me. You’ve got an owner that loves to make a splash, a GM that hasn’t drafted a QB in a decade, an offensive-minded new HC that wants to put his stamp on the organization, and a first-round QB prospect sitting there for the taking. Surrounded by a cast of very good playmakers and a new LT, and afforded the opportunity to learn behind a heady veteran, Herbert couldn’t ask for a better situation.

 

 

8. Arizona Cardinals: Jedrick Willis-OT/Alabama

 

 

Boy do I want to give them CeeDee Lamb. Like, badly. It just makes so much sense: give Kyler Murray his favorite WR from their days at Oklahoma. As I sit here typing this, I’m actually thinking about changing this pick, but I’m going to stick with what I’ve got now (because like I said: tackles always get over-drafted). Kliff Kingsbury’s crew already had a solid crop of pass catchers in Fitzgerald/Kirk/Isabella, and now that they’ve added DeAndre Hopkins, the next logical choice would be to upgrade the tackle positions that have been leaky for a while. Willis is as smooth and fluid as a tackle gets, and should have no trouble adjusting to the NFL game as an immediate starter.

 

 

9. Jacksonville Jaguars: Derrick Brown-DT/Auburn

 

 

No HC-GM tandem needs to have a great offseason more than Marrone-Caldwell. They’ve seen their AFCCG roster completely fall apart in the span of two years, and are left with little more than a guy with legit mustache cred and Myles Jack upon which to navigate their win-or-else 2020 campaign. This may not be a super-sexy pick on the surface, but Brown is the most disruptive interior presence in the class. He consumes offensive linemen when asked to play 2 gaps, and can explode off the ball when rushing the passer. He would add a huge spark to a front that is looking for Josh Allen and Taven Bryan to step up and replace Calais Campbell, Marcell Dareus, and (eventually) Yannick Ngakoue.

 

 

**TRADE**

10. Denver Broncos (f/ Cle): Jerry Jeudy-WR/Alabama

 

 

After trading down from the 10 slot in 2019, John Elway trades into the 10 slot in 2020 to nab the first WR in what’s purported to be an all-time great class. With Courtland Sutton already in the fold, adding a do-it-all target like Jeudy to the offense would really open things up for second-year QB Drew Lock. The Broncos could definitely look OL here, but I don’t think they’re quite ready to give up on Garrett Bolles just yet.

 

 

11. New York Jets: Isaiah Simmons-LB/Clemson

 

 

Okay first off, shame on a bunch of GMs for allowing the best defensive player not named Chase Young to fall this far (but wait, Bandit, this is your mock draft, isn’t that your fault? Yes, as a matter of fact it is, now shut up). This pick could easily be CeeDee Lamb or Mekhi Becton, but at some point a GM has to look at value like Simmons and bite. That GM is Joe Douglas, who sees a chess piece that Gregg Williams can pair with C.J. Moseley and Jamal Adams to terrorize the young QBs of the AFC East.

 

 

12. Las Vegas Raiders: CeeDee Lamb-WR/Oklahoma

 

 

I feel like this is the first virtual-sprint-to-the-e-podium pick of the night. Jon Gruden’s squad put together a quietly-respectable offensive season in 2019, but they really lacked the downfield passing game to consistently threaten opponents. In fact, their 6.6 intended air yards per pass attempt ranked 30th in the NFL. CeeDee could change all of that, having averaged 21.4 yards per reception in his final year at Oklahoma, and he boasts the route-running ability, YAC propensity, and hands that make him an elite prospect.

 

 

**TRADE**

13. Philadelphia Eagles (f/ Ind via SF): Henry Ruggs III-WR/Alabama

 

 

The 49ers may have two first-round picks, but they have zero selections in rounds 2-4, so dropping back and collecting extra mid-round picks makes a lot of sense. The Eagles are desperate to infuse some playmaking ability into their offense, and nothing does that quite like adding a receiver with world-class speed, solid hands, and crisp route-running skills. A creative offensive mind like Doug Pederson will have no trouble finding ways to get the ball into Ruggs’ hands, and Carson Wentz will be thrilled to have a threat that opens up the underneath game for TEs Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert.

 

 

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jonathan Taylor-RB/Wisconsin

 

 

This pick is a case of Brady wants = Brady gets. Ronald Jones is the only back in TB with any kind of experience, and we all know how much Brady loves to have both a reliable running threat and a factor in the passing game out of the backfield; Taylor gives him both. If you’re going to go out and pay big money to get the QB, you have to be committed to giving him every possible weapon to succeed on the field. Taylor has great vision and breakaway speed; two things you can’t teach, and both will be welcome additions to a rushing offense that’s been in the bottom 10 each of the last 2 seasons.

 

 

15. Cleveland Browns (f/ Den): Mekhi Becton-OT/Louisville

 

 

The Browns never adequately replaced future HOFer Joe Thomas at LT, choosing instead to make chicken salad with players like Greg Robinson. With Kevin Stefanski taking the HC helm, you can bet that he’s going to want to protect his franchise QB better than previous regimes. Becton is a mountainous human with surprising athleticism and a mauling demeanor on the field. Plugging him in at LT could go a long way in helping Baker Mayfield return to form after a disastrous 2019.

 

 

16. Atlanta Falcons: Javon Kinlaw-DT/South Carolina

 

 

After failing to trade into the top 5, the Falcons stay put and take the best player on the board, who also happens to be on the side of the ball where they are in desperate need of help.  While I’m sure they’d prefer to add a cornerback to replace Desmond Trufant, Kinlaw is simply too good to pass up. Being able to roll out a 4-man pass rush of Dante Fowler, Takk McKinley, Grady Jarrett, and Kinlaw would give the Falcons’ secondary a bit of cushion against the extremely talented receivers of the NFC South.

 

 

17. Dallas Cowboys: Xavier McKinney-S/Alabama

 

 

The Cowboys’ defense was a top-10 unit in 2019, but allowing yards after the catch was a significant weak point, as they surrendered 1,982 YAC, which ranked 26th in the league. McKinney-to-Dallas is about as close to a consensus pick as there is outside of the top-2, which means it probably won’t happen. But you can’t blame folks for connecting the dots, as Dallas’ safety play has been largely underwhelming, and McKinney has shown the complete skillset needed to play safety in today’s NFL, amassing 95 tackles, 5.5 TFLs, 3 sacks, 3 INTs, 4 FFs, and a TD in his final year at Alabama.

 

 

18. Miami Dolphins (f/ Pit): Austin Jackson-OT/USC

 

 

You’re probably sick of hearing me say it, so I’ll say it again: tackles always get over-drafted. With 3 first-round picks, Miami has absolutely no excuse if they go into the season with Julie’n Davenport playing LT again. I’m not the biggest Jackson fan, but he’s got the things that can’t be taught: height, bulk, arm length, and hand size. If he can learn to improve his lapses in technique and improve his pad level, Jackson may acquit himself on the boundary and keep his fellow first-round pick upright.

 

 

19. Las Vegas Raiders (f/ Chi): Patrick Queen-LB/LSU

 

 

The Raiders allowed more yards from scrimmage than all but 6 other teams in 2019, so they could stand to infuse the defense with a sideline-to-sideline playmaker like Queen, who had 12.5 TFLs, 3 sacks, and an INT in his final season at LSU.  If he can get acclimated to the playbook despite the lack of connectivity, Queen could pair with Cory Littleton and 2019 draft picks Clelin Ferrell, Jonathan Abram, and Trayvon Mullen to form what’s becoming a nice young core for Mike Mayock’s bunch.

 

 

20. Jacksonville Jaguars (f/ LAR): K’Lavon Chaisson-EDGE/LSU

 

 

Whoa, two defensive linemen in the first round? Yep. Remember when the Jaguars went to the AFCCG? It’s because they were the “Sacksonville” squad.  If they want to get back to what made life difficult for opposing teams, they need to keep the influx of pass rushers going. Chaisson is raw and has some injury concerns, but the athleticism and leadership he possesses make him worth the risk.

 

 

21. San Francisco 49ers (f/ Phi): Justin Jefferson-WR/LSU

 

 

Why do I always seem to end up with players from the same school going back-to-back? Whatever, blame quarantine or something. The 49ers lost Emmanuel Sanders to FA, and will definitely want to add someone with a similar combination of speed, sure-handedness, and short-area quickness. Jefferson is sneaky tough, and has the best hands in the draft class, which is exactly the type of player that Kyle Shanahan loves.

 

 

22. Minnesota Vikings (f/ Buf): C.J. Henderson-CB/Florida

 

 

The Vikings’ cornerback play took a step back in 2019, allowing opposing passers to complete over 65% of their attempts; only 5 teams allowed a higher percentage of completions. After releasing former all-pro Xavier Rhodes, the Vikings will need to re-stock the corner cupboard. Henderson is a guy that could easily go much earlier OR much later based upon how extensively teams are scared off by his inconsistency.  The Vikings, however, see a speedy corner that attacks the football, and are glad to add him to the mix in their secondary.

 

 

23. New England Patriots: Kenneth Murray-LB/Oklahoma

 

 

Bill Belichick is not the type to wait around for rookies to produce at any position, so it would be a big surprise if he were prepared to groom a QB at this stage of his coaching career. No, I think it’s far more likely that he looks to the defensive side of the ball to keep the team competitive while they piece together just enough offense to get the job done.  Enter Murray, an off-ball ‘backer with tremendous speed and tackling ability, whose versatility could allow him to step in and help replace the departed Kyle Van Noy.

 

 

24. New Orleans Saints: Trevon Diggs-CB/Alabama

 

 

Every year I project the Saints to take an LSU player, and every year they spit in my proverbial face and pick someone else, so I fought my urge to give them Kristian Fulton and went with Diggs instead. After Kirk Cousins took them down in the playoffs, improving a coverage unit that allowed nearly 2,600 air yards in 2019 has to be near the top of their priority list. Diggs has a unique combination of size, speed, and athleticism to match up against the likes of Julio Jones, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and D.J. Moore, each of whom the Saints face twice per season.

 

 

25. Minnesota Vikings: A.J. Epenesa-DL/Iowa

 

 

I expect that many folks will want to shoehorn this pick into being a Stefon Diggs replacement, but given the depth of the WR class, I’m giving them a replacement for another departed star. It won’t be any kind of picnic replacing the production that Everson Griffen had in a Vikings’ uniform, but Epenesa has been extremely productive against both the run and the pass the last 2 seasons (30+ TFLs and 22 sacks). For a team that cannot afford to take a step backward on defense, taking an NFL-ready player that can make an impact from several DL spots is a wise investment.

 

 

26. Miami Dolphins (f/ Hou): D’Andre Swift-RB/Georgia

 

 

I can’t be the only one that wouldn’t be excited about going into the season with a backfield tandem completely bereft of quickness and pass-catching ability, but that’s what Miami is looking at unless they find a complement to Jordan Howard and Kalen “1.8” Ballage. The Dolphins 2019 roster did not have a single player that averaged more than 29 yards per game for the season. That’s absolutely insane. A young QB’s best friend is a solid ground attack, and that’s what Swift’s robust 6+ YPC and 17 rushing TDs over the least 2 seasons would bring to the table.

 

 

27. Seattle Seahawks: Josh Jones-OT/Houston

 

 

It’s no secret that the Seahawks love to pound the rock. While their stable of running backs looks as solid as they could hope for, they did suffer some losses along the OL during the offseason. Jones is an athletic tackle with huge upside, who probably could’ve gone much earlier if not for some injury issues. Jones could start out on the right side or as a swing tackle while he cleans up some technique flaws, and eventually take over for 34-year old Duane Brown at left tackle in another year or two.

 

 

28. Baltimore Ravens: Zach Baun-LB/Wisconsin

 

 

This kid is fantastic, and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if he’s the next off-ball LB selected after Simmons. Baun does everything a team could ask him to do, as evidenced by his 19.5 TFLs, 12.5 sacks, 4 passes defensed, and 1 INT as a senior. The Ravens tagged Matt Judon in the hope of signing him to a long-term deal, but adding Baun gives them some flexibility regarding how they approach that situation. The added benefit for DC Wink Martindale is that Baun can also play some ILB if they end up keeping Judon and are able to bring Tyus Bowser and Jaylon Ferguson along to complement him.

 

 

29. Tennessee Titans: Isaiah Wilson-OT/Georgia

 

 

Have I mentioned that tackles get over-drafted? Well that’s what’s happening here. On one hand, Wilson’s tape doesn’t look like that of a first-round pick. On the other, 6’7”, 350 lb dudes with 36” arms may look like oak trees, but they don’t grow on them. Wilson is very raw, and probably doesn’t have the feet to play LT in the NFL, but the Trent Brown comparisons are real. The Titans lost RT Jack Conklin in free agency, and Wilson would give them some competition for Dennis Kelly and Ty Sambrailo as they look to take the next step.

 

 

30. Green Bay Packers: Jalen Reagor-WR/TCU

 

 

Matt LaFleur’s system made the most of what was an underwhelming crop of passing targets beyond Davante Adams in 2019. The lack of a secondary option was truly evident when Adams missed 4 games and Aaron Rodgers was forced to rely on guys like Marques Valdez-Scantling, Geronimo Allison, Allen Lazard, and Jake Kumerow--none of which topped 35 receptions for the season. It’s possible that one of the holdovers (or FA addition Devin Funchess) will step up, but adding a speedy target like Reagor, who also has elite contested catch ability, would ostensibly provide Rodgers with the type of secondary threat that defenses must account for in their game plan.

 

 

**TRADE**

31. Los Angeles Chargers: Jordan Love-QB/Utah State

 

 

So you’ve got a need at QB and don’t have enough grace from ownership to start a rookie? Then Love is your guy. With Tyrod Taylor already in the fold and having experience mentoring a young QB, the Chargers make the relatively low-cost move to jump back into the first round and grab Love. The move allows them to leapfrog the Colts and Lions that select early on day 2, and also gives them the benefit of a fifth-year option on Love’s rookie contract. He’s got arm talent, athleticism, and playmaking ability, but he’s going to have to learn to read a defense and operate something other than a run-and-gun system. For SF, they drop back 6 slots and add yet another valuable mid-round pick to their arsenal with minimal sacrifice in player value.

 

 

32. Kansas City Chiefs: Ross Blacklock-DT/TCU

 

 

With star DL Chris Jones receiving the franchise tag, and the obvious mega-deal for Patrick Mahomes looming large, the Chiefs need to plan for the potential departure of their best pass rusher. Blacklock isn’t exactly Jones, but he’s got similar explosiveness off the line, can play in either a 1 or 2-gap look, and can slide up and down the line. For the Chiefs, the goal is simply to keep on keeping on, and planning for a potential holdout makes a lot of sense.

 

 

If you get every one of these right....I'll send you nudes.

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BillsFan2313 RFA

BillsFan2313

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12 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

As many of you know, I do one and only one mock draft every year. Some of you appreciate this, and hence I continue to post it here for your review/approval/outright mockery. I’m not a particularly good prognosticator, as I will tend to average between 6 and 10 matches of team-to-player in a given year, and will also manage to correctly identify 24-26 first round selections.

 

 

Typical disclaimers: what is shown below is not necessarily what I would do in each team’s situation, but rather what I believe will happen come Thursday night.  Also, be nice in the comments; we’re in quarantine after all.

 

 

Now, without any further ado, I present to you Bandit’s 2020 mock draft…

 

 

1. Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow-QB/LSU

 

 

Zac Taylor wants his own QB; a fact that was made evident to all when he chose to bench Andy Dalton for Ryan Finley during the 2019 season. Burrow set an NCAA record with 60 TD passes as a senior, but is that one year of production a harbinger of things to come, or simply a flash in the pan? One thing is for sure, having AJ Green, Tyler Boyd, John Ross, Joe Mixon, and Geo Bernard in the fold will provide him with ample skill players to aid in his transition.

 

 

2. Washington Redskins: Chase Young-EDGE/Ohio State

 

 

Why would a team that ranked 10th in the NFL with 46 sacks in 2019 take an EDGE rusher with the #2 pick? 6’5”, 264 lbs, 34” arms, 10” hands, and 27 sacks with 35.5 TFLs over the last 2 years; that’s why. Young is the best player in the draft, and will join a front 7 that features former first-round picks P.R. Kerrigan, Jonathan Allen, DaRon Payne, and Montez Sweat in what Jack Del Rio hopes will be a dominant unit in DC. Sort of makes a nice parallel to when a team with four former first-round DLmen took a pass rusher from Ohio State at No. 2 overall last year…worked out pretty well for them.

 

 

3. Detroit Lions: Jeffrey Okudah-CB/Ohio State

 

 

There’s been a lot of chatter about a trade-down here, but I can’t see a HC/GM combo whose jobs are on the line passing on their pick of the litter. With Darius Slay out of the picture, the Lions need a CB1 to add to a unit that allowed the most air yards to opposing QBs in the league in 2019. Okudah has everything teams want in their corners: height, arm length, speed, and instincts. If Matt Patricia can’t make it work with him in the defensive backfield, it’ll be time to move on.

 

 

4. New York Giants: Tristan Wirfs-OT/Iowa

 

 

After investing a top-10 pick in Daniel Jones last year, Dave Gettlemen must be sick knowing that the Giants allowed 74 QB hits in 2019; only the tanking Dolphins allowed more. Despite handing Nate Solder a huge FA contract two offseasons ago, the tackle positions are still a mess in the Big Apple. Wirfs is a prototypical OT with outstanding athleticism and natural power. He also has positional flexibility, and his presence should bring out the best in both Jones and super-back Saquon Barkley.

 

 

5. Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa-QB/Alabama

 

 

Maybe my evaluation is getting to me too much, but I’m not buying the Tua slide. I know Alabama had 4 likely first-round picks at WR. I know they had an all-star OL. I know they run the ball a ton. I also know that when a guy averages over 11 yards per attempt over a two year time span with 76 TDs and 9 INTs, he’s doing something right. You want a kid that can throw the ball? Move around in the pocket? Handle pressure? Be a winner? Tua’s that kid. Brian Flores and Chris Grier may be gambling a bit on his health, but talent typically wins out.

 

 

6. Los Angeles Chargers: Andrew Thomas-OT/Georgia

 

 

I really want to give them Justin Herbert because I believe in drafting QBs. But not unlike the Lions before them, this is a team that probably needs to win sooner rather than later…despite that sneaky little contract extension they gave Anthony Lynn in the offseason. And if there’s one theme that carries from year to year in the draft, it’s that tackles always get over-drafted. Thomas may not have the highest upside of the 2019 tackle class, but he’s solid all around and may be the most pro-ready at the LT position. Lynn was able to put together a top-10 offense with Tyrod Taylor, a speedy pass-catching RB, and a LT from Georgia when he was in Buffalo, so why not try to do it again?

 

 

7. Carolina Panthers: Justin Herbert-QB/Oregon

 

 

You can talk about tanking, you can talk about signing Bridgewater, you can talk about the pro-readiness of their offensive roster and point out that a need pick is more appropriate, but this pick has always reeked of QB to me. You’ve got an owner that loves to make a splash, a GM that hasn’t drafted a QB in a decade, an offensive-minded new HC that wants to put his stamp on the organization, and a first-round QB prospect sitting there for the taking. Surrounded by a cast of very good playmakers and a new LT, and afforded the opportunity to learn behind a heady veteran, Herbert couldn’t ask for a better situation.

 

 

8. Arizona Cardinals: Jedrick Willis-OT/Alabama

 

 

Boy do I want to give them CeeDee Lamb. Like, badly. It just makes so much sense: give Kyler Murray his favorite WR from their days at Oklahoma. As I sit here typing this, I’m actually thinking about changing this pick, but I’m going to stick with what I’ve got now (because like I said: tackles always get over-drafted). Kliff Kingsbury’s crew already had a solid crop of pass catchers in Fitzgerald/Kirk/Isabella, and now that they’ve added DeAndre Hopkins, the next logical choice would be to upgrade the tackle positions that have been leaky for a while. Willis is as smooth and fluid as a tackle gets, and should have no trouble adjusting to the NFL game as an immediate starter.

 

 

9. Jacksonville Jaguars: Derrick Brown-DT/Auburn

 

 

No HC-GM tandem needs to have a great offseason more than Marrone-Caldwell. They’ve seen their AFCCG roster completely fall apart in the span of two years, and are left with little more than a guy with legit mustache cred and Myles Jack upon which to navigate their win-or-else 2020 campaign. This may not be a super-sexy pick on the surface, but Brown is the most disruptive interior presence in the class. He consumes offensive linemen when asked to play 2 gaps, and can explode off the ball when rushing the passer. He would add a huge spark to a front that is looking for Josh Allen and Taven Bryan to step up and replace Calais Campbell, Marcell Dareus, and (eventually) Yannick Ngakoue.

 

 

**TRADE**

10. Denver Broncos (f/ Cle): Jerry Jeudy-WR/Alabama

 

 

After trading down from the 10 slot in 2019, John Elway trades into the 10 slot in 2020 to nab the first WR in what’s purported to be an all-time great class. With Courtland Sutton already in the fold, adding a do-it-all target like Jeudy to the offense would really open things up for second-year QB Drew Lock. The Broncos could definitely look OL here, but I don’t think they’re quite ready to give up on Garrett Bolles just yet.

 

 

11. New York Jets: Isaiah Simmons-LB/Clemson

 

 

Okay first off, shame on a bunch of GMs for allowing the best defensive player not named Chase Young to fall this far (but wait, Bandit, this is your mock draft, isn’t that your fault? Yes, as a matter of fact it is, now shut up). This pick could easily be CeeDee Lamb or Mekhi Becton, but at some point a GM has to look at value like Simmons and bite. That GM is Joe Douglas, who sees a chess piece that Gregg Williams can pair with C.J. Moseley and Jamal Adams to terrorize the young QBs of the AFC East.

 

 

12. Las Vegas Raiders: CeeDee Lamb-WR/Oklahoma

 

 

I feel like this is the first virtual-sprint-to-the-e-podium pick of the night. Jon Gruden’s squad put together a quietly-respectable offensive season in 2019, but they really lacked the downfield passing game to consistently threaten opponents. In fact, their 6.6 intended air yards per pass attempt ranked 30th in the NFL. CeeDee could change all of that, having averaged 21.4 yards per reception in his final year at Oklahoma, and he boasts the route-running ability, YAC propensity, and hands that make him an elite prospect.

 

 

**TRADE**

13. Philadelphia Eagles (f/ Ind via SF): Henry Ruggs III-WR/Alabama

 

 

The 49ers may have two first-round picks, but they have zero selections in rounds 2-4, so dropping back and collecting extra mid-round picks makes a lot of sense. The Eagles are desperate to infuse some playmaking ability into their offense, and nothing does that quite like adding a receiver with world-class speed, solid hands, and crisp route-running skills. A creative offensive mind like Doug Pederson will have no trouble finding ways to get the ball into Ruggs’ hands, and Carson Wentz will be thrilled to have a threat that opens up the underneath game for TEs Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert.

 

 

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jonathan Taylor-RB/Wisconsin

 

 

This pick is a case of Brady wants = Brady gets. Ronald Jones is the only back in TB with any kind of experience, and we all know how much Brady loves to have both a reliable running threat and a factor in the passing game out of the backfield; Taylor gives him both. If you’re going to go out and pay big money to get the QB, you have to be committed to giving him every possible weapon to succeed on the field. Taylor has great vision and breakaway speed; two things you can’t teach, and both will be welcome additions to a rushing offense that’s been in the bottom 10 each of the last 2 seasons.

 

 

15. Cleveland Browns (f/ Den): Mekhi Becton-OT/Louisville

 

 

The Browns never adequately replaced future HOFer Joe Thomas at LT, choosing instead to make chicken salad with players like Greg Robinson. With Kevin Stefanski taking the HC helm, you can bet that he’s going to want to protect his franchise QB better than previous regimes. Becton is a mountainous human with surprising athleticism and a mauling demeanor on the field. Plugging him in at LT could go a long way in helping Baker Mayfield return to form after a disastrous 2019.

 

 

16. Atlanta Falcons: Javon Kinlaw-DT/South Carolina

 

 

After failing to trade into the top 5, the Falcons stay put and take the best player on the board, who also happens to be on the side of the ball where they are in desperate need of help.  While I’m sure they’d prefer to add a cornerback to replace Desmond Trufant, Kinlaw is simply too good to pass up. Being able to roll out a 4-man pass rush of Dante Fowler, Takk McKinley, Grady Jarrett, and Kinlaw would give the Falcons’ secondary a bit of cushion against the extremely talented receivers of the NFC South.

 

 

17. Dallas Cowboys: Xavier McKinney-S/Alabama

 

 

The Cowboys’ defense was a top-10 unit in 2019, but allowing yards after the catch was a significant weak point, as they surrendered 1,982 YAC, which ranked 26th in the league. McKinney-to-Dallas is about as close to a consensus pick as there is outside of the top-2, which means it probably won’t happen. But you can’t blame folks for connecting the dots, as Dallas’ safety play has been largely underwhelming, and McKinney has shown the complete skillset needed to play safety in today’s NFL, amassing 95 tackles, 5.5 TFLs, 3 sacks, 3 INTs, 4 FFs, and a TD in his final year at Alabama.

 

 

18. Miami Dolphins (f/ Pit): Austin Jackson-OT/USC

 

 

You’re probably sick of hearing me say it, so I’ll say it again: tackles always get over-drafted. With 3 first-round picks, Miami has absolutely no excuse if they go into the season with Julie’n Davenport playing LT again. I’m not the biggest Jackson fan, but he’s got the things that can’t be taught: height, bulk, arm length, and hand size. If he can learn to improve his lapses in technique and improve his pad level, Jackson may acquit himself on the boundary and keep his fellow first-round pick upright.

 

 

19. Las Vegas Raiders (f/ Chi): Patrick Queen-LB/LSU

 

 

The Raiders allowed more yards from scrimmage than all but 6 other teams in 2019, so they could stand to infuse the defense with a sideline-to-sideline playmaker like Queen, who had 12.5 TFLs, 3 sacks, and an INT in his final season at LSU.  If he can get acclimated to the playbook despite the lack of connectivity, Queen could pair with Cory Littleton and 2019 draft picks Clelin Ferrell, Jonathan Abram, and Trayvon Mullen to form what’s becoming a nice young core for Mike Mayock’s bunch.

 

 

20. Jacksonville Jaguars (f/ LAR): K’Lavon Chaisson-EDGE/LSU

 

 

Whoa, two defensive linemen in the first round? Yep. Remember when the Jaguars went to the AFCCG? It’s because they were the “Sacksonville” squad.  If they want to get back to what made life difficult for opposing teams, they need to keep the influx of pass rushers going. Chaisson is raw and has some injury concerns, but the athleticism and leadership he possesses make him worth the risk.

 

 

21. San Francisco 49ers (f/ Phi): Justin Jefferson-WR/LSU

 

 

Why do I always seem to end up with players from the same school going back-to-back? Whatever, blame quarantine or something. The 49ers lost Emmanuel Sanders to FA, and will definitely want to add someone with a similar combination of speed, sure-handedness, and short-area quickness. Jefferson is sneaky tough, and has the best hands in the draft class, which is exactly the type of player that Kyle Shanahan loves.

 

 

22. Minnesota Vikings (f/ Buf): C.J. Henderson-CB/Florida

 

 

The Vikings’ cornerback play took a step back in 2019, allowing opposing passers to complete over 65% of their attempts; only 5 teams allowed a higher percentage of completions. After releasing former all-pro Xavier Rhodes, the Vikings will need to re-stock the corner cupboard. Henderson is a guy that could easily go much earlier OR much later based upon how extensively teams are scared off by his inconsistency.  The Vikings, however, see a speedy corner that attacks the football, and are glad to add him to the mix in their secondary.

 

 

23. New England Patriots: Kenneth Murray-LB/Oklahoma

 

 

Bill Belichick is not the type to wait around for rookies to produce at any position, so it would be a big surprise if he were prepared to groom a QB at this stage of his coaching career. No, I think it’s far more likely that he looks to the defensive side of the ball to keep the team competitive while they piece together just enough offense to get the job done.  Enter Murray, an off-ball ‘backer with tremendous speed and tackling ability, whose versatility could allow him to step in and help replace the departed Kyle Van Noy.

 

 

24. New Orleans Saints: Trevon Diggs-CB/Alabama

 

 

Every year I project the Saints to take an LSU player, and every year they spit in my proverbial face and pick someone else, so I fought my urge to give them Kristian Fulton and went with Diggs instead. After Kirk Cousins took them down in the playoffs, improving a coverage unit that allowed nearly 2,600 air yards in 2019 has to be near the top of their priority list. Diggs has a unique combination of size, speed, and athleticism to match up against the likes of Julio Jones, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and D.J. Moore, each of whom the Saints face twice per season.

 

 

25. Minnesota Vikings: A.J. Epenesa-DL/Iowa

 

 

I expect that many folks will want to shoehorn this pick into being a Stefon Diggs replacement, but given the depth of the WR class, I’m giving them a replacement for another departed star. It won’t be any kind of picnic replacing the production that Everson Griffen had in a Vikings’ uniform, but Epenesa has been extremely productive against both the run and the pass the last 2 seasons (30+ TFLs and 22 sacks). For a team that cannot afford to take a step backward on defense, taking an NFL-ready player that can make an impact from several DL spots is a wise investment.

 

 

26. Miami Dolphins (f/ Hou): D’Andre Swift-RB/Georgia

 

 

I can’t be the only one that wouldn’t be excited about going into the season with a backfield tandem completely bereft of quickness and pass-catching ability, but that’s what Miami is looking at unless they find a complement to Jordan Howard and Kalen “1.8” Ballage. The Dolphins 2019 roster did not have a single player that averaged more than 29 yards per game for the season. That’s absolutely insane. A young QB’s best friend is a solid ground attack, and that’s what Swift’s robust 6+ YPC and 17 rushing TDs over the least 2 seasons would bring to the table.

 

 

27. Seattle Seahawks: Josh Jones-OT/Houston

 

 

It’s no secret that the Seahawks love to pound the rock. While their stable of running backs looks as solid as they could hope for, they did suffer some losses along the OL during the offseason. Jones is an athletic tackle with huge upside, who probably could’ve gone much earlier if not for some injury issues. Jones could start out on the right side or as a swing tackle while he cleans up some technique flaws, and eventually take over for 34-year old Duane Brown at left tackle in another year or two.

 

 

28. Baltimore Ravens: Zach Baun-LB/Wisconsin

 

 

This kid is fantastic, and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if he’s the next off-ball LB selected after Simmons. Baun does everything a team could ask him to do, as evidenced by his 19.5 TFLs, 12.5 sacks, 4 passes defensed, and 1 INT as a senior. The Ravens tagged Matt Judon in the hope of signing him to a long-term deal, but adding Baun gives them some flexibility regarding how they approach that situation. The added benefit for DC Wink Martindale is that Baun can also play some ILB if they end up keeping Judon and are able to bring Tyus Bowser and Jaylon Ferguson along to complement him.

 

 

29. Tennessee Titans: Isaiah Wilson-OT/Georgia

 

 

Have I mentioned that tackles get over-drafted? Well that’s what’s happening here. On one hand, Wilson’s tape doesn’t look like that of a first-round pick. On the other, 6’7”, 350 lb dudes with 36” arms may look like oak trees, but they don’t grow on them. Wilson is very raw, and probably doesn’t have the feet to play LT in the NFL, but the Trent Brown comparisons are real. The Titans lost RT Jack Conklin in free agency, and Wilson would give them some competition for Dennis Kelly and Ty Sambrailo as they look to take the next step.

 

 

30. Green Bay Packers: Jalen Reagor-WR/TCU

 

 

Matt LaFleur’s system made the most of what was an underwhelming crop of passing targets beyond Davante Adams in 2019. The lack of a secondary option was truly evident when Adams missed 4 games and Aaron Rodgers was forced to rely on guys like Marques Valdez-Scantling, Geronimo Allison, Allen Lazard, and Jake Kumerow--none of which topped 35 receptions for the season. It’s possible that one of the holdovers (or FA addition Devin Funchess) will step up, but adding a speedy target like Reagor, who also has elite contested catch ability, would ostensibly provide Rodgers with the type of secondary threat that defenses must account for in their game plan.

 

 

**TRADE**

31. Los Angeles Chargers: Jordan Love-QB/Utah State

 

 

So you’ve got a need at QB and don’t have enough grace from ownership to start a rookie? Then Love is your guy. With Tyrod Taylor already in the fold and having experience mentoring a young QB, the Chargers make the relatively low-cost move to jump back into the first round and grab Love. The move allows them to leapfrog the Colts and Lions that select early on day 2, and also gives them the benefit of a fifth-year option on Love’s rookie contract. He’s got arm talent, athleticism, and playmaking ability, but he’s going to have to learn to read a defense and operate something other than a run-and-gun system. For SF, they drop back 6 slots and add yet another valuable mid-round pick to their arsenal with minimal sacrifice in player value.

 

 

32. Kansas City Chiefs: Ross Blacklock-DT/TCU

 

 

With star DL Chris Jones receiving the franchise tag, and the obvious mega-deal for Patrick Mahomes looming large, the Chiefs need to plan for the potential departure of their best pass rusher. Blacklock isn’t exactly Jones, but he’s got similar explosiveness off the line, can play in either a 1 or 2-gap look, and can slide up and down the line. For the Chiefs, the goal is simply to keep on keeping on, and planning for a potential holdout makes a lot of sense.

 

Good stuff. Now we need a 2nd rd mock! 

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GunnerBill Hall of Famer

GunnerBill

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8 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:


Maybe I’ll do one Friday after my re-stack...

 

I did a second round mock on my version 2 Bandit and it was an interesting experiment. Never done that before. I have had this habit the last 2 years of mocking guys to teams in round 1 who they take in later rounds there was Williams the corner New England took and someone else I think last year and Rudolph and the Steelers the year before. 

 

Would love to read a round two mock after your re-stack. Good job. 

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Thurman#1 Hall of Famer

Thurman#1

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Great work. It's hard for me to care that much about first round mocks with the Bills not drafting till the 2nd, but I appreciate your effort and think that's a great job.

 

I saw that in The News today Daniel Jeremiah said that because of COVID and how everyone's been in the buildings for so long not out there mixing, that he'd talked to several GMs who said that they thought that this year the mock drafting crowd is further off than they've ever been. I think it was Jeremiah again, in the same article, who also said that because the scouts from every team aren't out there together talking and building groupthink and consensus unconsciously, that between the teams there may be far less consensus about who should go where. There may be a lot of teams astonished that this guy went so early and this guy went so late.

 

I'm looking forward to seeing how correct that opinion is. It'd be fun if there are a lot of surprises this year.

 

In any case, I'm amazed by the amount of work and care you and Gunner and others put into it. Fantastic.

Edited by Thurman#1
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thebandit27 Hall of Famer

thebandit27

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Not bad in terms of accuracy...

 

Correctly predicted 24/32 first round players (Average)

 

7 matches of right player to right team in right slot (Burrow, Young, Okudah, Tua, A. Jackson, Chaisson, I. Wilson)

1 match of player to slot with wrong team (Murray)

1 match of player to team in wrong slot (Jeudy)

 

I also had 3 players selected one slot from where I had them going (Herbert, Ruggs, Jefferson).

 

Correctly predicted a LAC trade up from round 2, as well as a trade up for Love

 

Earliest pick I got wrong: Thomas over Wirfs at 4 (nice call @Kirby Jackson)

 

Latest pick I got right: Isaiah Wilson to Tennessee at 29.

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BigBuff423 Veteran

BigBuff423

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11 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Not bad in terms of accuracy...

 

Correctly predicted 24/32 first round players (Average)

 

7 matches of right player to right team in right slot (Burrow, Young, Okudah, Tua, A. Jackson, Chaisson, I. Wilson)

1 match of player to slot with wrong team (Murray)

1 match of player to team in wrong slot (Jeudy)

 

I also had 3 players selected one slot from where I had them going (Herbert, Ruggs, Jefferson).

 

Correctly predicted a LAC trade up from round 2, as well as a trade up for Love

 

Earliest pick I got wrong: Thomas over Wirfs at 4 (nice call @Kirby Jackson)

 

Latest pick I got right: Isaiah Wilson to Tennessee at 29.

 

Overall, very well done. 

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