dave mcbride Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nfl-safeties-should-be-worth-more-than-touchdowns/?cid=taboola_rcc_r And if they were worth more, the Bills would have won a Super Bowl. 2
Prospector Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 (edited) and field goals should be worth 2 points 1-29 yds, 3 points 30-59 yds, and 5 points for 60+ Edited April 21, 2020 by WorstTEever81 2 1
glazeduck Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 They ARE worth more than 2 pts. They're 2 pts and a turnover. 7 1 1
dave mcbride Posted April 21, 2020 Author Posted April 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, glazeduck said: They ARE worth more than 2 pts. They're 2 pts and a turnover. That is brought up in the piece and discussed at some length.
GoBills808 Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 I think it needs to be addressed that safeties can only really occur within a very specific part of the field, whereas defensive TDs can happen from anywhere. So it's not simply that safeties occur more infrequently...imo you have to look at the ratio of how many plays run from inside the 3 result in safeties vs the ratio of overall defensive snaps that result in defensive TDs...I expect it will make defensive TDs as infrequent, if not rarer, than safeties. 1 1
ALLEN1QB Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 There was a thread on this last week somebody is not going to be happy with you
Seasons1992 Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 36 minutes ago, WorstTEever81 said: and field goals should be worth 2 points 1-29 yds, 3 points 30-59 yds, and 5 points for 60+ If you're of a certain age, you certainly will remember this: 1
Buffalo_Stampede Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 51 minutes ago, WorstTEever81 said: and field goals should be worth 2 points 1-29 yds, 3 points 30-59 yds, and 5 points for 60+ Makes sense but it'll be funny when a team down 4 takes an intentional 20 yard loss to set up a 60 yard game winning fg. 1
YattaOkasan Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 40 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: I think it needs to be addressed that safeties can only really occur within a very specific part of the field, whereas defensive TDs can happen from anywhere. So it's not simply that safeties occur more infrequently...imo you have to look at the ratio of how many plays run from inside the 3 result in safeties vs the ratio of overall defensive snaps that result in defensive TDs...I expect it will make defensive TDs as infrequent, if not rarer, than safeties. but doesnt that just belie the point. Since safeties can only occur on a certain part of the field they are more rare. I feel as if they should be game changing plays are they hardly ever are. Would love to see what would happen if they were worth more. certainly punting it inside the 5 would be a huge stat. 1 1
Call_Of_Ktulu Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 I just saved 450$ by bundling my home, life and auto insurance. 1
PetermansRedemption Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 50 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: I think it needs to be addressed that safeties can only really occur within a very specific part of the field, whereas defensive TDs can happen from anywhere. So it's not simply that safeties occur more infrequently...imo you have to look at the ratio of how many plays run from inside the 3 result in safeties vs the ratio of overall defensive snaps that result in defensive TDs...I expect it will make defensive TDs as infrequent, if not rarer, than safeties. But shouldn’t that be taken in account when changing the points allowed for a safety? Not only do you need to make a tackle for a loss play, you have to first pin the opponent that deep to begin with. So you would have to take both probabilities and combine them. It isn’t simply the percentage of safeties that result when inside the 1. It would also need to take into account the probability of pinning your opponent inside the 3 so you actually have a legitimate chance at the safety play. It’s definitely a combined probability.
GoBills808 Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 10 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said: but doesnt that just belie the point. Since safeties can only occur on a certain part of the field they are more rare. I feel as if they should be game changing plays are they hardly ever are. Would love to see what would happen if they were worth more. certainly punting it inside the 5 would be a huge stat. Just now, PetermansRedemption said: But shouldn’t that be taken in account when changing the points allowed for a safety? Not only do you need to make a tackle for a loss play, you have to first pin the opponent that deep to begin with. So you would have to take both probabilities and combine them. It isn’t simply the percentage of safeties that result when inside the 1. It would also need to take into account the probability of pinning your opponent inside the 3 so you actually have a legitimate chance at the safety play. It’s definitely a combined probability. My point was when you look at the specific circumstances that must occur by rule for a safety to be possible, they probably aren't as rare as they seem.
YattaOkasan Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 Just now, GoBills808 said: My point was when you look at the specific circumstances that must occur by rule for a safety to be possible, they probably aren't as rare as they seem. yeah thats not too surprising (nor would I disagree) but I think the counter is those specific circumstances are also pretty rare.
Don Otreply Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 (edited) A safety should be worth five (5) points and the ball, doing this would add more scoring and excitement to the game. I for one am all for such a changes. Go Bills!!! Edited April 21, 2020 by Don Otreply
GoBills808 Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Don Otreply said: A safety should be worth five (5) points and the ball, I like Worstevers81’s field goal points concept as well. doing these things would add more scoring and excitement to the game. I for one am all for such changes. Go Bills!!! Should touchdowns from the 20 be worth more than touchdowns from the 5?
MJS Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 1 hour ago, glazeduck said: They ARE worth more than 2 pts. They're 2 pts and a turnover. Came here to say that. There's nothing more powerful in a game than a turnover. Completely changes momentum. Adding two points to that just makes a safety the ultimate play in football. No need to add more points. 2 1
FireChans Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 Safeties give you 2 points and the ball, which is potentially a 9 or 10 point swing. Safeties being worth a defensive TD and not the turn over takes away from them IMO. 1
Don Otreply Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 1 minute ago, GoBills808 said: Should touchdowns from the 20 be worth more than touchdowns from the 5? TDs bump up to nine((9) points with traditional point after opportunities, I retract my statement on field goals. ? 1
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 29 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: Makes sense but it'll be funny when a team down 4 takes an intentional 20 yard loss to set up a 60 yard game winning fg. Ow. Now my head hurts after contemplating that. I look like Richie Kotite with that stunned look he always had when coaching the Jets.
njbuff Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 How about you get the option of the regular two points and a free kick, or..................... No points and you get the ball at the opponents 20 yard line?
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