Which 6-8 players/positions will the Bills pay big money to?

[Logic]

I was just reading an article from The Athletic, which said this:

 

“The hardest thing to find as a scout is a three-down linebacker,” said an AFC personnel man. “You’re in nickel 75 percent of the time. You can find these two-downs on every street corner. A three-down guy that never comes off the field, it’s impossible to find. They’ve got to be very, very smart.”

 

That got me thinking that the Bills are more likely to re-sign Matt Milano than fans might suppose. It’s hard to find 3-down linebackers, and the Bills have TWO outstanding 3-Down guys, and given the importance of this type of linebacker to McDermott’s scheme, I believe Milano and Edmunds will both get big paydays.

 

In turn, this got me thinking about who the Bills will and will not be handing out big deals to in the coming months and years. 

 

Generally speaking, NFL teams can afford to pay 6-8 players $10million+ deals. This forms a team’s core. The rest of the roster shuffles in and out, and good GMs can fill in the surrounding gaps year after year via the draft and free agency.

 

Obviously, different teams value different things. I believe that, on defense, McDermott values strength up the middle. As such, I anticipate Oliver, Edmunds, and Milano receiving big paydays. I also don’t think they plan to let Tre White walk out the door. I expect those four players to make up Buffalo’s defensive core for the next decade. Offensively, I expect Dawkins to get paid and Diggs to get a raise. Morse already makes top 5 center money, and they obviously hope Josh Allen becomes good enough to pay.

 

Thats four on offense, four on defense. Passing and stopping the pass are — smartly — prioritized. I do NOT see them spending big at running back or safety as the years go on. Or I should say, I don’t expect those positions to be among the 6-8 highest paid at any point. 

 

Clearly, this is all a bit over-simplified, because not everyone’s contracts start or end at the same time, new players get drafted and may change the long term plans of the team, etc...But I believe the structure of penetrating 3T, two 3-Down LBs, and CB1 on defense will hold. Potentially, an edge player could take over from one of the above on the pay scale. On offense, I believe they’ll always prioritize protecting the QB over all else. I don’t expect them to ever invest big money at running back.

 

So...which 6-8 positions and/or players do you predict will be receiving big contracts and will represent Buffalo’s highest paid “core” going forward?

Edited April 21, 2020 by Logic

[MAJBobby]

This is a bit hard as a couple are already paid in reality but will list him anyway, the 6-8 I would pay are:

 

1. Josh Allen (Eventually, 2022).

2.  Stefon Diggs (already above 10M)

3. Mitch Morse (Already abov 10M)

4. Dion Dawkins (This year)

5. Ed Oliver (2023)

6. Tremaine Edmunds (2022)

7. Matt Milano (this year) (though I think he doesn't make 10M a year when it is done)

8. Tre White - (Next year)

 

There is you immediate Core IMO  The Issue it which one falls off to pay your DE.  I think that would be a combination of Hughes and Murphys pay (to pay the new Core DE) and the other DE would be the middle class NFL player

 

 

Edited April 21, 2020 by MAJBobby

[Logic]

2 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

This is a bit hard as a couple are already paid in reality but will list him anyway, the 6-8 I would pay are:

 

1. Josh Allen (Eventually, 2022).

2.  Stefon Diggs (already above 10M)

3. Mitch Morse (Already abov 10M)

4. Dion Dawkins (This year)

5. Ed Oliver (2023)

6. Tremaine Edmunds (2022)

7. Matt Milano (this year) (though I think he doesn't make 10M a year when it is done)

8. Tre White - (Next year)

 

There is you immediate Core IMO

 

 

 

Agreed. Those were my exact answers.

 

As such, I expect the team to start drafting more for the future and cap implications and less for immediate starters. For instance, they could take a safety at 54 this year, and many Bills fans will be upset or confused. Since they can’t pay everyone, though, it makes sense to get some cheap labor there. Ditto edge rushers.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

I think this season will decide a lot. As of now they're likely going to sign White, Dawkins, and Milano.

 

Edmunds seems to be a lock as well. The rest still has to prove it I think. Allen and Diggs have to prove it as a tandem. 

 

A player I think is going to be a monster is Harrison Phillips. Ed Oliver has 3 more years before anything can happen.

[MAJBobby]

7 minutes ago, Logic said:

 

Agreed. Those were my exact answers.

 

As such, I expect the team to start drafting more for the future and cap implications and less for immediate starters. For instance, they could take a safety at 54 this year, and many Bills fans will be upset or confused. Since they can’t pay everyone, though, it makes sense to get some cheap labor there. Ditto edge rushers.

The reason I dont think Milano will over 10M as well is because of the exact thing the scout said.  Really you only need one 3 down backer because of the sub packages.  That would be Edmunds.  So they can use the leverage against Milano.  And Milano could eventually be replaced with a specialized LBer.  Adding slots to the roster on game day will also give that flexibility.  It might take 2 backers to Fill what Milano brings, but that could easily be the leverage that they use to keep his contract team friendly

Edited April 21, 2020 by MAJBobby

[GoBills808]

23 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

This is a bit hard as a couple are already paid in reality but will list him anyway, the 6-8 I would pay are:

 

1. Josh Allen (Eventually, 2022).

2.  Stefon Diggs (already above 10M)

3. Mitch Morse (Already abov 10M)

4. Dion Dawkins (This year)

5. Ed Oliver (2023)

6. Tremaine Edmunds (2022)

7. Matt Milano (this year) (though I think he doesn't make 10M a year when it is done)

8. Tre White - (Next year)

 

There is you immediate Core IMO  The Issue it which one falls off to pay your DE.  I think that would be a combination of Hughes and Murphys pay (to pay the new Core DE) and the other DE would be the middle class NFL player

 

 

All these minus Milano would be my answer too

[MAJBobby]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

All these minus Milano would be my answer too

Yeah I kind of expanded a bit on Milano later.  Out of all these players Milano is the most expendable actually and easily replaced actually

[Paup 1995MVP]

24 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

This is a bit hard as a couple are already paid in reality but will list him anyway, the 6-8 I would pay are:

 

1. Josh Allen (Eventually, 2022).

2.  Stefon Diggs (already above 10M)

3. Mitch Morse (Already abov 10M)

4. Dion Dawkins (This year)

5. Ed Oliver (2023)

6. Tremaine Edmunds (2022)

7. Matt Milano (this year) (though I think he doesn't make 10M a year when it is done)

8. Tre White - (Next year)

 

There is you immediate Core IMO  The Issue it which one falls off to pay your DE.  I think that would be a combination of Hughes and Murphys pay (to pay the new Core DE) and the other DE would be the middle class NFL player

 

 

Please let Dion Dawkins play well for an entire season before we pay him dime one!!  I would pay Micah Hyde before Dawkins based on past performance and what they will do over the next 3-4 years, UNLESS DD plays lights out this year.  (And Hyde will cost a whole lot less and is a great leader on the team)  And if Dawkins continues to play as an average left tackle at best, I would let him walk after this season and either sign a good LT in free agency, trade for one, or draft one in the 1st round next year!!

[GoBills808]

Just now, MAJBobby said:

Yeah I kind of expanded a bit on Milano later.  Out of all these players Milano is the most expendable actually and easily replaced actually

I'm hoping Milano is the guy that he showed pre-injury and gets back to form...could be the Thomas David to Edmunds' Kuechly.  Unfortunately as of right now he is the most replaceable as you say

[Buffalo_Stampede]

22 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

The reason I dont think Milano will over 10M as well is because of the exact thing the scout said.  Really you only need one 3 down backer because of the sub packages.  That would be Edmunds.  So they can use the leverage against Milano.  And Milano could eventually be replaced with a specialized LBer.  Adding slots to the roster on game day will also give that flexibility.  It might take 2 backers to Fill what Milano brings, but that could easily be the leverage that they use to keep his contract team friendly

Why would you pay 2 players if you can pay 1 player? Milano right now never comes off the field for a top defense. He's getting a big contract. He is one of the reasons our sub packages are so good. It's basically our base defense.

[MAJBobby]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Why would you pay 2 players if you can pay 1 player? Milano right now never comes off the field for a top defense. He's getting a big contract. He is one of the reasons our sub packages are so good. It's basically our base defense.

Because at some point you have to look at things like that, and Milano is the most expendable player on that list.  He took a step back last year, however that should help keeping his paycheck low.  If not you move on from him. So if his price tag is 12M a year. and I can get the same production from 2 guys that add up to 8M a year I do that.  it is plan and simple roster management.  WLB are easy to find, and should never be overpaid

Edited April 21, 2020 by MAJBobby

[mjt328]

Your list is good, although I don't know if Matt Milano will command $10 million per.

The good news is, we can stagger these contracts.  We won't need to pay everyone big money at the same time.

 

Dion Dawkins and Matt Milano become free agents next year

Tre White becomes a free agent in 2022

Josh Allen and Tremaine Edmunds in 2023

Ed Oliver not until 2024

 

Starting next season, I think the Bills strategy will shift towards building almost entirely through the draft and then re-signing their own.  Veteran additions will be reasonable, and not big money.  By the time Oliver is needing a new contract, guys like Mitch Morse and Stefon Diggs will be in their early 30's and should require less investment to keep on the roster.

 

[below]

By the time Josh gets paid I think Morse will be gone.

[Thurman#1]

I think they're going to be trying to find an edge who'll deserve to be paid that kind of money.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

2 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Because at some point you have to look at things like that, and Milano is the most expendable player on that list.  He took a step back last year, however that should help keeping his paycheck low.  If not you move on from him. So if his price tag is 12M a year. and I can get the same production from 2 guys that add up to 8M a year I do that.  it is plan and simple roster management.  WLB are easy to find, and should never be overpaid

How is someone that never comes off the field expendable? He also grades out well. You're losing so much by going with your approach. For one it's much easier to scheme against an offense when you don't have to sub all the time. Another you lose a roster spot that could be helpful somewhere else.

 

I'm not sure I'm following your logic here. If you don't like Milano than you find another every down LB, but it's not easy finding a good one. 

[MAJBobby]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

How is someone that never comes off the field expendable? He also grades out well. You're losing so much by going with your approach. For one it's much easier to scheme against an offense when you don't have to sub all the time. Another you lose a roster spot that could be helpful somewhere else.

 

I'm not sure I'm following your logic here. If you don't like Milano than you find another every down LB, but it's not easy finding a good one. 

I don't Need an every-down LBer at that spot that is what I am saying.  also in case you missed it. I included him IN the CORE but also said is the most expendable of that group and he is IMO.  And thankfully the NFL opening up More Roster spots on Game Day instead of 45 makes it easier for me now as well with additional roster spots available.  I can not have a 3 Down LBer, Two 2 down LBers and a Coverage Specialist for the sub packages and NOT have to worry about the roster spot crunch

Edited April 21, 2020 by MAJBobby

[Buffalo_Stampede]

3 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

I don't Need an every-down LBer at that spot that is what I am saying.  also in case you missed it. I included him IN the CORE but also said is the most expendable of that group and he is IMO.  

I think many people are going to surprised at his contract. I think it's the complete opposite of what you suggest. I am willing to bet the Bills have him as one of their top players.

Edited April 21, 2020 by Buffalo_Stampede

[MAJBobby]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I think many people are going to surprised at his contract. I think it's the complete opposite of what you suggest. I am willing to bet the Bills have him as one of their top players.

Find me one WLB that once made Big Money actually earned that contract in the NFL.  It is the easiest LBer spot to play in Football.

Edited April 21, 2020 by MAJBobby

[hjnick]

This was a topic I was thinking of bringing up but more of a 'which positions would you pay big money contracts to?' instead of people.

 

For me, this has nothing to do with the player or how good they are, just where you want to distribute the money at which position.

 

I can't see us paying top dollar for 2 linebackers.  That is a lot of money at one position, when you could use it for a more impact player at DE or CB.

 

A couple of years down the road when we are paying Allen (35MIL+), Diggs (15MIL+ new contract?), Dawkins (13-15MIL+), White (15-18MIL+), plus field a team... The money will dry up fast. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Just now, MAJBobby said:

Find me one WLB that once made Big Money actually earned that contract in the NFL

Depends on what is big money. But Carolina, Beane and McDermott, paid Keuchly and Davis top 10 LB money in their prime.