All Gunner's Draft stuff 2020 edition...

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

You may be right there. I see Chinn as a LB in nickel who can play box safety in base D so you're flexible with fewer subs. But that's definitely team specific. That said, it only takes 1 team to be sold.

 

For sure. And that is a thing about the way I do it the more scheme specific I think a guy is the more I really need him to be exceptional to grade high. I might be low on Chinn. He is one that I would say I am less confident I am right on. But agreed he is that hybrid guy in terms of scheme. 

[SoCal Deek]

Did I miss where Gunner predicted the Bills second round selection? Don’t leave me hanging!

[BuffaloHokie13]

5 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Did I miss where Gunner predicted the Bills second round selection? Don’t leave me hanging!

 

[flmike]

No way Cam Akers slips to the 3rd round. He is a star and ready day 1.

 

[Kirby Jackson]

Fantastic stuff as always @GunnerBill!! You and @Virgil really dominate this part of the calendar. We are all grateful to the contributions that you make. It really is amazing to have someone spend the time that you do on the prospects but through the lens of “Bills needs.” We can’t get that anywhere else so thank you!!

[WideRightRevenge]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

did one of these composite threads last year just to have everything together in one place with links to the other bits dotted around the board so that it is easy to find. It was reasonably popular with folk and I hope the mods will indulge me again in posting this year.

 

THAT's WHAT I'm TALKIN' ABOUT ... .YOU ROCK GUNNER ... and DAMN RIGHT I'M YELLING WITH MY KEYBOARD ... THIS GUY is AWESOME!!!!  ?

 

You are the Man!!!

[Teddy KGB]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Never misses a hole.

[BfloBillsFan]

Thank you sir.  Will be a good reference for me on Thursday and Friday.?

[Rocky Landing]

Great work Gunner. Truly, you're an asset to Bills fandom.

[machine gun kelly]

14 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I did one of these composite threads last year just to have everything together in one place with links to the other bits dotted around the board so that it is easy to find. It was reasonably popular with folk and I hope the mods will indulge me again in posting this year.

 

So the products that are already out there are:

 

Evaluations of the top 7 Quarterbacks in the 2020 draft: https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/224234-gunners-2020-draft-quarterback-evaluations-pt-2-now-posted/

My draft sleepers: https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/224107-draft-sleepers/

My mock draft (which will be updated for the last time in the final 24 hours before the event): https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/223075-gunners-2020-mock-draft-update-v20-with-2-rounds-now-posted-page-6/

 

The "new content" in this thread will be:

• a full list of my 19 first round grades;
• an analysis of my top 100 (including comparisons to previous years);
• my positional top 5s.

 

First Round Grades:

1. Chase Young, DE, Ohio State

2. Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State

3. Joe Burrow, QB, LSU

4. Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson

5. Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn

6. Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa

7. Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama

8. CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma

9. Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama

10. Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama

11. Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina

12. Henry Ruggs, WR, Alabama

13. Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama

14. Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU

15. Patrick Queen, LB, LSU

16. Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia

17. Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma

18. Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville

19. Johnathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin

 

I then also have five borderline 1st/2nd grades: 20. K'Lavon Chaisson, DE, LSU; 21. Jaylon Johnson, CB, Utah; 22. Zach Baun, LB, Wisconsin; 23. Tyler Biadasz, C, Wisconsin; 24. Marlon Davidson, DT, Auburn.

 

Analysis of Top 100:

Here is the positional breakdown of my top 100:-

 

Quarterback: 6

Running Back: 7

Tight End: 4

Wide Receiver: 17

Offensive Tackle: 11

Interior Offensive Line: 6

Total offensive players: 51

 

Interior Defensive Line: 10

Edge Rusher: 11

Linebacker: 9

Corner: 11

Safety: 8

Total defensive players: 49

 

Comparison to other years:

 

Balance of top 100

Overall this class is a pretty balanced group at 51:49 whereas in 2019 there was more a tilt towards (46:54) influenced in part by the extremely talented class of defensive lineman that accounted for 29 of my top 100 players. In 2018 there was a slight offensive bias (54:46) with the very strong Quarterback class accounting for 7 of the top 100, and the deep running back group accounting for 12 of the top 100. 2017 was very defense heavy (41:59) with that exceptional class of defensive backs of which our own Tre White was a part making up 26 of the top 100 players.

 

Strengths of this class

Obviously wide receiver. 17 receivers is the most I have had graded in my top 100 in my 6 years of doing this. My next best would be 12 in 2017. That class had two top 10 guys in Corey Davis and Mike Williams but then a bigger drop off to John Ross. Jeudy and Lamb grade out very closely to where I had the top 2 in 2017 but then obviously Ruggs is pretty close to that as well. The gap this year comes between Ruggs and the rest. I had 7 receivers with second round grades in 2017 and my 2020 board exceeds that number with 8. Beyond that it is still a pretty good defensive line group with 21 guys in the top 100, even if it does not compare favourably to last year's 29. If you compare it to the 17 defensive lineman I had in my top 100 in 2018 it still looks a good group.

 

Weaknesses of this class

The tight end group is below average. There were 7 tight ends in my top 100 last year which was more than normal but just 4 in 2020 is a little below par. After Cole Kmet it feels like a group where there might be some role players but nobody who becomes an undisputed #1 tight end. It is also weak at interior offensive line. I had 9 in my top 100 last year and 11 in 2018. This is not a complete lost cause of an offensive line class because the tackles are good, but inside there are not many guys who project as long term starting options and only 6 make my top 100. Finally safety is a little down on normal. I only have 1 safety in the first round which is not that unusual and then there are some good second round and early 3rd round options but like a lot of positions in this class the talent thins out really quickly from about halfway through the 3rd round. I have said it a lot now but I am sceptical that there will be many successfully impact players in the NFL who come from day 3 of this draft. To give that some context... 2013 and 2014 between then have sent just 7 players drafted on day 3 to a Pro Bowl so far. 2015 and 2016 have already sent 6 day 3 guys each to Pro Bowls. I think 2020 feels more like a 2013 or 2014 draft in terms of depth (though I do think it is stronger than 2013 at the top end).

 

Positional Top 5s (where they are graded in brackets - note: that is NOT necessarily where I think they will be picked):

* denotes serious off-field or medical concern

 

Quarterback

1. Joe Burrow, LSU (1st)

2. Tua Tagovailoa*, Alabama (1st)

3. Jordan Love, Utah State (2nd)

4. Justin Herbert, Oregon (2nd)

5. Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma (3rd)

 

Running Back

1. Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin (1st)

2. D'Andre Swift, Georgia (2nd)

3. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU (2nd)

4. JK Dobbins, Ohio State (2nd)

5. Cam Akers, Florida State (2nd/3rd)

 

Wide Receiver

1. Jerry Jeudy, Alabama (1st)

2. CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma (1st)

3. Henry Ruggs, Alabama (1st)

4. Tee Higgins, Clemson (2nd)

5. Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State (2nd)

 

Tight End

1. Cole Kmet, Notre Dame (2nd)

2. Hunter Bryant, Washington (2nd/3rd)

3. Brycen Hopkins, Purdue (3rd)

4. Albert Okwuegbunam, Missouri (3rd)

5. Adam Trautman, Dayton (4th)

 

Offensive Tackle

1. Tristan Wirfs, Iowa (1st)

2. Jedrick Wills, Alabama (1st)

3. Andrew Thomas, Georgia (1st)

4. Mekhi Becton*, Louisville (1st)

5. Josh Jones, Houston (2nd)

 

Interior Offensive Line

1. Tyler Biadasz*, Wisconsin (1st/2nd)

2. Cesar Ruiz, Michigan (2nd)

3. Darryl Williams, Mississippi State (2nd)

4. John Simpson, Clemson (2nd/3rd)

5. Soloman Kindley, Georgia (3rd)

 

Interior Defensive Line

1. Derrick Brown, Auburn (1st)

2. Javon Kinlaw, South Carolina (1st)

3. Marlon Davidson, Auburn (1st/2nd)

4. Neville Gallimore, Oklahoma (2nd)

5. Ross Blacklock, TCU (2nd)

 

EDGE

1. Chase Young, Ohio State (1st)

2. K'Lavon Chaisson, LSU (1st/2nd)

3. AJ Epenesa, Iowa (2nd)

4. Bradlee Anae, Utah (2nd)

5. Yetur Gross-Matos, Penn State (2nd)

 

Linebacker

1. Isaiah Simmons, Clemson (1st)

2. Patrick Queen, LSU (1st)

3. Kenneth Murray, Oklahoma (1st)

4. Zach Baun*, Wisconsin (2nd)

5. Troy Dye, Oregon (2nd)

 

Corner

1. Jeff Okudah, Ohio State (1st)

2. Kristian Fulton, LSU (1st)

3. Jaylon Johnson, Utah (1st/2nd)

4. CJ Henderson, Florida (2nd)

5. Trevon Diggs, Alabama (2nd)

 

Safety

1. Xavier McKinney, Alabama (1st)

2. Grant Delpit, LSU (2nd)

3. Kyle Dugger, Lenoir-Rhyne (2nd)

4. Ashtyn Davis, California (2nd)

5. Antoine Winfield, Minnesota (2nd)

 

 

Final thoughts....

I have to say that while draft prep and player evaluations have at least kept me busy the past month of lockdown I would not say this has been one of my favourite draft classes to evaluate nor is it one of the most exciting. The wide receiver group has some talented playmakers but there are some pretty shallow position groups and I'd be surprised if this ends up being looked back on as a great draft. Only 3 or 4 really elite talents at the top then another 15 or so very good talents who can be long term starters and then through to the middle of round 3 a lot of decent role players but not many stars would be my assessment. Still, I am sure there is still plenty here that plenty of you will disagree with. Hope it makes for useful pre-draft reading.

Well done my friend.  Thanks for this homework.

[yungmack]

Thanks for this. I might drop Herbert to the 4th, & I would put Pittman in the top 5. 

[maryland-bills-fan]

16 hours ago, MJS said:

Didn't you know? You're supposed to save this for AFTER the draft. Now somebody will steal all your thunder and ideas!

Well, I show my predictions AFTER the draft and surprise everyone with how good they are.

Edited April 21, 2020 by maryland-bills-fan

[hjnick]

Gunner,  great list and job well done.

 

If you don't mind me asking, how do you make this assessment?  Just the eye test?  How do you differentiate between a 1st / 1st/2nd / 2nd / 3rd and so on?

 

Do you compare to other years or is there a threshold for being a 1st round grade, etc?

 

I'm really curious how the process works.  Thanks.

 

 

[Shaw66]

Thanks, Gunner. I don't know the college players, and this is great.  

[Buffalo Barbarian]

@GunnerBill  what do you think of Jabari Zuniga? I think he has traits to be a good pass rusher.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

14 hours ago, hjnick said:

Gunner,  great list and job well done.

 

If you don't mind me asking, how do you make this assessment?  Just the eye test?  How do you differentiate between a 1st / 1st/2nd / 2nd / 3rd and so on?

 

Do you compare to other years or is there a threshold for being a 1st round grade, etc?

 

I'm really curious how the process works.  Thanks.

 

 

 

So there is an objective threshold for being a 1st round grade, yes. I also do very much believe that I am comparing every player to every player I have evaluated before. Let's take Jeff Okudah as an example. He is so clearly the best corner in this class that comparisons to Kristian Fulton and CJ Henderson are not that helpful. When you are grading Okudah you are really asking "where do I have him compared to Jalen Ramsey?" Ramsey is the highest graded corner I have had in my 6 drafts. My answer is Okudah is just below Ramsey.... so then you ask okay what about Marshon Lattimore who is my next highest graded... I think Okudah is a similar talent to Lattimore (who I loved) but he is a little more proven has more college experience and hasn't been nicked up like Lattimore. So that kinda gives me a frame of reference to grade. I think now with 5 years worth of data to draw on it is actually easier to sort through those top players as a result. 

 

In terms of is it just eye test, yes, essentially. You do want production, you do want a guy has been healthy but what is most important to me is when I watch his games is he doing enough of the things that I value highly for that position well enough and consistently enough to succeed at the NFL level. The ones where you have no doubt that is a "yes" end up as true 1st round grades and the more question marks you have from there the lower they go on the board. So if there is a guy who has elite traits but is inconsistent on tape they likely end up a 2nd rounder on my board. Equally you can be a second rounder to me by being hugely consistent and productive and smart even if there are couple of the top level traits missing, so long as I think you will be able to translate that to the NFL. 

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

@GunnerBill  what do you think of Jabari Zuniga? I think he has traits to be a good pass rusher.

 

 

 

Yea interesting guy. I have him and Taylor out of Tennesee right together in that late 3rd / early 4th type territory. Zuniga is probably the flashier of the two Taylor is the more consistent. I think he needs a lot of refinement and I think if you played him early in base packages teams would just run right at him and steamroll him. As a guy who could come in and rush the passer on 3rd down there is some value there but he is a bit of a longer term project for me. 

[No_Matter_What]

Gunner how do top 4 defensive players grade against players on their positions in previous years?

[GunnerBill]

58 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

Gunner how do top 4 defensive players grade against players on their positions in previous years?

 

So counting since 2015 (I started in 2014 but I was still feeling my way and don't really count that year):

 

Okudah is the 2nd best corner I have graded after Jalen Ramsey (remember the Ramsey can't play corner and will have to be a safety in the NFL chat)? Crazy then and even crazier now. 

 

Chase Young I have as my best pass rush prospect just ahead of Nick Bosa and Myles Garrett. 

 

Simmons is my top linebacker. My next closest was Roquan Smith in 2017 and then Tremaine Edmunds in that same class. 

 

I am guessing the other guy you are referring to is Derrick Brown? Yea he has a few in front of him. My top ranked DT is ou very own Ed Oliver and #2 is Quinnen Williams (both 2019). I also had DeForest Buckner graded as an inside guy in 2016 and he was above where I have Brown. Brown is level with where I had Jonathan Allen coming out of Alabama in 2017. 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

On 4/22/2020 at 4:09 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea interesting guy. I have him and Taylor out of Tennesee right together in that late 3rd / early 4th type territory. Zuniga is probably the flashier of the two Taylor is the more consistent. I think he needs a lot of refinement and I think if you played him early in base packages teams would just run right at him and steamroll him. As a guy who could come in and rush the passer on 3rd down there is some value there but he is a bit of a longer term project for me. 

 

Considering our Dline depth and need for younger Ends i would take a shot.