All Gunner's Draft stuff 2020 edition...

[GunnerBill]

I did one of these composite threads last year just to have everything together in one place with links to the other bits dotted around the board so that it is easy to find. It was reasonably popular with folk and I hope the mods will indulge me again in posting this year.

 

So the products that are already out there are:

 

Evaluations of the top 7 Quarterbacks in the 2020 draft: https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/224234-gunners-2020-draft-quarterback-evaluations-pt-2-now-posted/

My draft sleepers: https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/224107-draft-sleepers/

My mock draft (which will be updated for the last time in the final 24 hours before the event): https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/223075-gunners-2020-mock-draft-update-v20-with-2-rounds-now-posted-page-6/

 

The "new content" in this thread will be:

• a full list of my 19 first round grades;
• an analysis of my top 100 (including comparisons to previous years);
• my positional top 5s.

 

First Round Grades:

1. Chase Young, DE, Ohio State

2. Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State

3. Joe Burrow, QB, LSU

4. Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson

5. Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn

6. Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa

7. Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama

8. CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma

9. Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama

10. Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama

11. Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina

12. Henry Ruggs, WR, Alabama

13. Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama

14. Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU

15. Patrick Queen, LB, LSU

16. Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia

17. Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma

18. Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville

19. Johnathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin

 

I then also have five borderline 1st/2nd grades: 20. K'Lavon Chaisson, DE, LSU; 21. Jaylon Johnson, CB, Utah; 22. Zach Baun, LB, Wisconsin; 23. Tyler Biadasz, C, Wisconsin; 24. Marlon Davidson, DT, Auburn.

 

Analysis of Top 100:

Here is the positional breakdown of my top 100:-

 

Quarterback: 6

Running Back: 7

Tight End: 4

Wide Receiver: 17

Offensive Tackle: 11

Interior Offensive Line: 6

Total offensive players: 51

 

Interior Defensive Line: 10

Edge Rusher: 11

Linebacker: 9

Corner: 11

Safety: 8

Total defensive players: 49

 

Comparison to other years:

 

Balance of top 100

Overall this class is a pretty balanced group at 51:49 whereas in 2019 there was more a tilt towards (46:54) influenced in part by the extremely talented class of defensive lineman that accounted for 29 of my top 100 players. In 2018 there was a slight offensive bias (54:46) with the very strong Quarterback class accounting for 7 of the top 100, and the deep running back group accounting for 12 of the top 100. 2017 was very defense heavy (41:59) with that exceptional class of defensive backs of which our own Tre White was a part making up 26 of the top 100 players.

 

Strengths of this class

Obviously wide receiver. 17 receivers is the most I have had graded in my top 100 in my 6 years of doing this. My next best would be 12 in 2017. That class had two top 10 guys in Corey Davis and Mike Williams but then a bigger drop off to John Ross. Jeudy and Lamb grade out very closely to where I had the top 2 in 2017 but then obviously Ruggs is pretty close to that as well. The gap this year comes between Ruggs and the rest. I had 7 receivers with second round grades in 2017 and my 2020 board exceeds that number with 8. Beyond that it is still a pretty good defensive line group with 21 guys in the top 100, even if it does not compare favourably to last year's 29. If you compare it to the 17 defensive lineman I had in my top 100 in 2018 it still looks a good group.

 

Weaknesses of this class

The tight end group is below average. There were 7 tight ends in my top 100 last year which was more than normal but just 4 in 2020 is a little below par. After Cole Kmet it feels like a group where there might be some role players but nobody who becomes an undisputed #1 tight end. It is also weak at interior offensive line. I had 9 in my top 100 last year and 11 in 2018. This is not a complete lost cause of an offensive line class because the tackles are good, but inside there are not many guys who project as long term starting options and only 6 make my top 100. Finally safety is a little down on normal. I only have 1 safety in the first round which is not that unusual and then there are some good second round and early 3rd round options but like a lot of positions in this class the talent thins out really quickly from about halfway through the 3rd round. I have said it a lot now but I am sceptical that there will be many successfully impact players in the NFL who come from day 3 of this draft. To give that some context... 2013 and 2014 between then have sent just 7 players drafted on day 3 to a Pro Bowl so far. 2015 and 2016 have already sent 6 day 3 guys each to Pro Bowls. I think 2020 feels more like a 2013 or 2014 draft in terms of depth (though I do think it is stronger than 2013 at the top end).

 

Positional Top 5s (where they are graded in brackets - note: that is NOT necessarily where I think they will be picked):

* denotes serious off-field or medical concern

 

Quarterback

1. Joe Burrow, LSU (1st)

2. Tua Tagovailoa*, Alabama (1st)

3. Jordan Love, Utah State (2nd)

4. Justin Herbert, Oregon (2nd)

5. Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma (3rd)

 

Running Back

1. Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin (1st)

2. D'Andre Swift, Georgia (2nd)

3. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU (2nd)

4. JK Dobbins, Ohio State (2nd)

5. Cam Akers, Florida State (2nd/3rd)

 

Wide Receiver

1. Jerry Jeudy, Alabama (1st)

2. CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma (1st)

3. Henry Ruggs, Alabama (1st)

4. Tee Higgins, Clemson (2nd)

5. Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State (2nd)

 

Tight End

1. Cole Kmet, Notre Dame (2nd)

2. Hunter Bryant, Washington (2nd/3rd)

3. Brycen Hopkins, Purdue (3rd)

4. Albert Okwuegbunam, Missouri (3rd)

5. Adam Trautman, Dayton (4th)

 

Offensive Tackle

1. Tristan Wirfs, Iowa (1st)

2. Jedrick Wills, Alabama (1st)

3. Andrew Thomas, Georgia (1st)

4. Mekhi Becton*, Louisville (1st)

5. Josh Jones, Houston (2nd)

 

Interior Offensive Line

1. Tyler Biadasz*, Wisconsin (1st/2nd)

2. Cesar Ruiz, Michigan (2nd)

3. Darryl Williams, Mississippi State (2nd)

4. John Simpson, Clemson (2nd/3rd)

5. Soloman Kindley, Georgia (3rd)

 

Interior Defensive Line

1. Derrick Brown, Auburn (1st)

2. Javon Kinlaw, South Carolina (1st)

3. Marlon Davidson, Auburn (1st/2nd)

4. Neville Gallimore, Oklahoma (2nd)

5. Ross Blacklock, TCU (2nd)

 

EDGE

1. Chase Young, Ohio State (1st)

2. K'Lavon Chaisson, LSU (1st/2nd)

3. AJ Epenesa, Iowa (2nd)

4. Bradlee Anae, Utah (2nd)

5. Yetur Gross-Matos, Penn State (2nd)

 

Linebacker

1. Isaiah Simmons, Clemson (1st)

2. Patrick Queen, LSU (1st)

3. Kenneth Murray, Oklahoma (1st)

4. Zach Baun*, Wisconsin (2nd)

5. Troy Dye, Oregon (2nd)

 

Corner

1. Jeff Okudah, Ohio State (1st)

2. Kristian Fulton, LSU (1st)

3. Jaylon Johnson, Utah (1st/2nd)

4. CJ Henderson, Florida (2nd)

5. Trevon Diggs, Alabama (2nd)

 

Safety

1. Xavier McKinney, Alabama (1st)

2. Grant Delpit, LSU (2nd)

3. Kyle Dugger, Lenoir-Rhyne (2nd)

4. Ashtyn Davis, California (2nd)

5. Antoine Winfield, Minnesota (2nd)

 

 

Final thoughts....

I have to say that while draft prep and player evaluations have at least kept me busy the past month of lockdown I would not say this has been one of my favourite draft classes to evaluate nor is it one of the most exciting. The wide receiver group has some talented playmakers but there are some pretty shallow position groups and I'd be surprised if this ends up being looked back on as a great draft. Only 3 or 4 really elite talents at the top then another 15 or so very good talents who can be long term starters and then through to the middle of round 3 a lot of decent role players but not many stars would be my assessment. Still, I am sure there is still plenty here that plenty of you will disagree with. Hope it makes for useful pre-draft reading.

Edited April 20, 2020 by GunnerBill

[Bills Fan In Pittsford]

Wow Gunner!  What a resource!  Your efforts are appreciated!

[FireChans]

Incredible stuff as always. What made you give Taylor the first round grade?

[MJS]

Didn't you know? You're supposed to save this for AFTER the draft. Now somebody will steal all your thunder and ideas!

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Incredible stuff as always. What made you give Taylor the first round grade?

 

I love his vision and speed combo. But it is vision that really made him a 1st rounder for me. Never misses a hole.

[IgotBILLStopay]

Nice compilation. I would have ranked Henderson (CB), McKinney (Safety), Jefferson (WR),  Isiah Wilson (OL) & Epenesa (DE) higher and put Herbert ahead of Love. 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, MJS said:

Didn't you know? You're supposed to save this for AFTER the draft. Now somebody will steal all your thunder and ideas!

 

I believe in having my opinions out there. Sure you are going to get some wrong and some right but it's easy to be one of those folks who knew 2 years after the event that Russell Wilson was going to be great. I don't try and pretend I liked guys I didn't like and I don't try and pretend I didn't like guys I did.

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I believe in having my opinions out there. Sure you are going to get some wrong and some right but it's easy to be one of those folks who knew 2 years after the event that Russell Wilson was going to be great. I don't try and pretend I liked guys I didn't like and I don't try and pretend I didn't like guys I did.

I am slightly curious on how many in the mock have referenced our boards vs Miller, Jeremiah, or McShay. I agree though, I like to go on record, even if it's just a group here that I do it with.

[Fixxxer]

I think you forgot Simmons on your top 5 at LB

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Nice compilation. I would have ranked Henderson (CB), McKinney (Safety), Jefferson (WR),  Isiah Wilson (OL) & Epenesa (DE) higher and put Herbert ahead of Love. 

 

I do like Wilson. What holds him down a little for me is I think he is right tackle only and that limits value. But I have him in the second and I think he could straight away on the right side. I thought I was higher than most on McKinney - definitely like him a lot - think he is a very safe pick. Henderson and Jefferson are two of my more controversial views in this class. I think Henderson has all the physical traits you could want but the mental mistakes terrify me. He literally just loses concentration too often for my tastes. Maybe that goes as he matures and if so he could be a top corner. Jefferson I think is a slot receiver only. His tape outside is day 3 pick territory for me. I really like him as a slot guy but again... position value of a slot guy? It isn't a day 1 pick.

1 minute ago, Fixxxer said:

I think you forgot Simmons on your top 5 at LB

 

Darn!!! Good spot. Haha. Thanks. Poor Malik Harrison. He is still left in the TSW mock draft too.

[BuffaloHokie13]

I'm assuming you tend to stick to your board for your mock too? I'm putting the finishing touches on my 3 rounder (106 picks) and my top 99 are selected because I stuck to my board, but also met needs as I could. But reviewing it did stand out that 99 of the 106 were my top 99.

[CommonCents]

Good content. I feel that you’re way off on Justin Jefferson though. 

 

 

[HappyDays]

You're one of the only people I've seen give Dugger the nod over Chinn. What's your reasoning there? Just curious, I have done exactly zero research on safeties in this draft.

[Blokestradamus]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I am slightly curious on how many in the mock have referenced our boards vs Miller, Jeremiah, or McShay. I agree though, I like to go on record, even if it's just a group here that I do it with.

 

I was guided by Gunner's love of Gallimore and Johnson. When he likes a player, it's usually for good reason.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, CommonCents said:

Good content. I feel that you’re way off on Justin Jefferson though. 

 

 

 

It is one of my strongest opinions. I hate his tape on the outside. Absolutely hate it.

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

You're one of the only people I've seen give Dugger the nod over Chinn. What's your reasoning there? Just curious, I have done exactly zero research on safeties in this draft.

 

I might be a little low on Chinn.... not sure what position I see him in. I've ranked him as a safety but is he really a safety or is he a hybrid LB/S? I don't love him in coverage. He is a reactor not an anticipator. I think Dugger is a better cover guy. He has some of the same "what is his position?" questions but I dunno I feel more like I could take the natural talent in Dugger and have a proper NFL safety by year 2. With Chinn I kind of think I might still be asking in year 4 "what position does he play?"

[CommonCents]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is one of my strongest opinions. I hate his tape on the outside. Absolutely hate it.

Most always your stuff makes sense even when I disagree I can reason with it. On Jefferson I can’t understand what you’re seeing. We shall revisit this one! 

 

Another fun draft season of reading all the stuff on here, I thank you and the rest of the guys that put in the time. Excellent work.

 

Good health and good fortune to everyone so we can do it again next spring. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

8 minutes ago, Blokestradamus said:

 

I was guided by Gunner's love of Johnson.

I giggled.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I giggled.

 

Blokes didn't when I guided him to my Johnson......

 

?

 

Too far? 

[Blokestradamus]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I giggled.

 

You know, I wrote Gallimore first to avoid that

[BuffaloHokie13]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I might be a little low on Chinn.... not sure what position I see him in. I've ranked him as a safety but is he really a safety or is he a hybrid LB/S? I don't love him in coverage. He is a reactor not an anticipator. I think Dugger is a better cover guy. He has some of the same "what is his position?" questions but I dunno I feel more like I could take the natural talent in Dugger and have a proper NFL safety by year 2. With Chinn I kind of think I might still be asking in year 4 "what position does he play?"

You may be right there. I see Chinn as a LB in nickel who can play box safety in base D so you're flexible with fewer subs. But that's definitely team specific. That said, it only takes 1 team to be sold.