GunnerBill Posted April 16, 2020 Posted April 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: Mine was a hypothetical. If the Bills swapped out the 2, the points for go up significantly more than the points against. I think there is no question of that. If your best player is a DB, you are the 2011 Jets. As for Peters...the Bills fortunes wouldn't have been much better had he stayed. It's not an impact position. Look at Joe Thomas's entire career anchoring a perennially awful O-line on a hopeless team. I disagree with the first and last paragraph. The middle para is true.... but it is also the 2009 and 2010 Jets who made the AFCCG.
GoBills808 Posted April 16, 2020 Posted April 16, 2020 23 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: That's the problem. It's way less of a problem than your best player being an RB. 1
Mr. WEO Posted April 16, 2020 Posted April 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: It's way less of a problem than your best player being an RB. Not isn he was on this Bills team--that's the point of the discussion.
Mr. WEO Posted April 16, 2020 Posted April 16, 2020 14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: I disagree with the first and last paragraph. The middle para is true.... but it is also the 2009 and 2010 Jets who made the AFCCG. Thomas was a puff of flatus up against the massive winds of failure flowing over Cleveland from Lake Erie. Philly won a SB after Peters was no longer contributing. Some other guy stepped in. Great LT-in the end, so what? The Bills were bad with him, no worse without him (7 win teams to 6 win teams is no difference).
GoBills808 Posted April 16, 2020 Posted April 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: Not isn he was on this Bills team--that's the point of the discussion. My issue with the idea is twofold: replacement value on average of RB vs DB and their relative importance to how the team functions. We know the Bills are currently built defense-first and while it's true that McDermott can get results from average defensive talent, his defenses have traditionally relied on a top performing DB (White now, Norman previously) as counterweight to his defensive line scheme and allows LBs to cheat a little in coverage toward the opposite field. I don't believe our current defense can be run without a top DB. Thus, the gap in replacement value of White v another DB is >>> than McCaffrey v Singletary imo. All things being equal, I stand by my post that you'd rather have your best player be a defensive back than running back. 1
GunnerBill Posted April 16, 2020 Posted April 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: Thomas was a puff of flatus up against the massive winds of failure flowing over Cleveland from Lake Erie. Philly won a SB after Peters was no longer contributing. Some other guy stepped in. Great LT-in the end, so what? The Bills were bad with him, no worse without him (7 win teams to 6 win teams is no difference). We know you love offensive weapons WEO but even McCaffery doesn't make a team on his own. The Panthers won 28 games in the 3 seasons before him. They have won 23 in the 3 seasons with him. By your logic he adds no wins either.
Mr. WEO Posted April 16, 2020 Posted April 16, 2020 1 minute ago, GunnerBill said: We know you love offensive weapons WEO but even McCaffery doesn't make a team on his own. The Panthers won 28 games in the 3 seasons before him. They have won 23 in the 3 seasons with him. By your logic he adds no wins either. He adds points. This team struggles mightily at that. More points for this team adds wins. He scored over 1/2 their TDs last season while they were being QB'd by the rotting corpse of Newton, Kyle Allen and Will Grier. Not having a top CB like Tre White covering the other team's top WR (who may not be a big threat anyway) but having someone perhaps a notch below as CB is not going to result in a significant change in points allowed by this Defense. But add McC to this Offense right now? Boom....
GunnerBill Posted April 16, 2020 Posted April 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said: He adds points. This team struggles mightily at that. More points for this team adds wins. He scored over 1/2 their TDs last season while they were being QB'd by the rotting corpse of Newton, Kyle Allen and Will Grier. Not having a top CB like Tre White covering the other team's top WR (who may not be a big threat anyway) but having someone perhaps a notch below as CB is not going to result in a significant change in points allowed by this Defense. But add McC to this Offense right now? Boom.... He hasn't added enough boom in Carolina to result in more wins. They are a worse team with him.
Mr. WEO Posted April 16, 2020 Posted April 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: My issue with the idea is twofold: replacement value on average of RB vs DB and their relative importance to how the team functions. We know the Bills are currently built defense-first and while it's true that McDermott can get results from average defensive talent, his defenses have traditionally relied on a top performing DB (White now, Norman previously) as counterweight to his defensive line scheme and allows LBs to cheat a little in coverage toward the opposite field. I don't believe our current defense can be run without a top DB. Thus, the gap in replacement value of White v another DB is >>> than McCaffrey v Singletary imo. All things being equal, I stand by my post that you'd rather have your best player be a defensive back than running back. I was tempted to not read beyond "average RB"....lol Of course it can. If Tre was injured and couldn't play, how many more points per game do you think they would give up? Not over one guy. We are only talking about the impact of a single player, one versus the other. Just now, GunnerBill said: He hasn't added enough boom in Carolina to result in more wins. They are a worse team with him. The Bills aren't the Panthers...also the point off this discussion. You are being disingenuous of you are arguing that McC did not have a massive impact on that Offense last year. Come on! Who else would conclude that that Offense last year was worse with him?? In the absence of the Offense that Newton had in the past provided, McC was the Offense...
GoBills808 Posted April 16, 2020 Posted April 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said: I was tempted to not read beyond "average RB"....lol Of course it can. If Tre was injured and couldn't play, how many more points per game do you think they would give up? Not over one guy. We are only talking about the impact of a single player, one versus the other. I would guess that McCaffrey and White's impact on the spread is just about equal. And I definitely am not calling CMC 'average'. 1
GunnerBill Posted April 16, 2020 Posted April 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: I was tempted to not read beyond "average RB"....lol Of course it can. If Tre was injured and couldn't play, how many more points per game do you think they would give up? Not over one guy. We are only talking about the impact of a single player, one versus the other. He didn't say average running back. He said the "value on average" of rb vs cb. Personally I think Tre out would make us a touchdown a game worse on defense. That is how critical I think he is..
DCOrange Posted April 16, 2020 Posted April 16, 2020 (edited) I think there's probably 5-10 players on our team that I would pay $16 million a year before I'd pay McCaffrey and Tre is obviously one of them. Not saying they'd all be good contracts, but I don't think McCaffrey's is a good contract either. Edited April 16, 2020 by DCOrange 1
billsbackto81 Posted April 16, 2020 Posted April 16, 2020 Whether he's the "best" is debatable. He is in the " elite" category. So many factors to consider when discussing CBs. Speed, physicality, shadowing, closing speed, hands, reaction and recognition. I'd say he's definitely Top 3 and deserves to be compensated at the going rate. And that's not taking into consideration that he's a stand up community guy that genuinely wants to be here. PAY DA MAN!!! 1
Lurker Posted April 16, 2020 Posted April 16, 2020 I guess I'm bored like everyone else. As I said earlier, I think Tre's the best zone CB in the league. His good fortune (see what I did there) is that his next contract will be based on the pay scale for top CBs, period--which is usually set by man-to-man guys. That's a big win for him and I'm glad he's a great, team-oriented guy. The Bills will pay up and life will move on...
Mr. WEO Posted April 16, 2020 Posted April 16, 2020 34 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: He didn't say average running back. He said the "value on average" of rb vs cb. Personally I think Tre out would make us a touchdown a game worse on defense. That is how critical I think he is.. One guy...7 points? No way. That’s a seismic difference in the NFL. The D would have to a sieve for one guy to come in and make that difference. It’s not. Mack made a 3 point impact on the Bears D (for 1 year anyway)...and he’s a supreme disruption at a high impact position.
GunnerBill Posted April 16, 2020 Posted April 16, 2020 Just now, Mr. WEO said: One guy...7 points? No way. That’s a seismic difference in the NFL. The D would have to a sieve for one guy to come in and make that difference. It’s not. Mack made a 3 point impact on the Bears D (for 1 year anyway)...and he’s a supreme disruption at a high impact position. White is critical to way the whole scheme operates. If you don't have White able to match up 1 on 1 you can't play the cover 3 McDermott wants to play and you end up in more of a tampa 2 shell. We have seen - think early in 2018 - that when this team gets in a rut defensively it generally comes in the Tampa 2 where they can't get the extra guy down in the box. The stuff the Bills do with their coverage is as advanced as anyone in the league. They are pretty vanilla up front and extremely complex on the backend. So for this team, losing the best guy out of that secondary.... yea.. I think it would be in the region of a touchdown per game. Because it isn't just the drop off from White to Wallace or White to Norman. It is the drop off from a defense that has its who defensive call sheet available to one that suddenly loses half of it.
BillsVet Posted April 16, 2020 Posted April 16, 2020 3 hours ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said: Those 80 to 100 mil contacts should be for QB’s, DE, LT and middle LB’s that can blitz, cover and tackle on a elite level. 80 mil for a zone CB is not for me. If his asking price gets crazy I hope we trade him for a 1st rd pick. And every Bills draft pick who performs under this regime will remember that decision. There is a macro perspective necessary to a decision, although I'm not saying to re-sign him for that sake alone. This is why a GM gets paid the way he does - to make those difficult choices. You can't run from every less than simple decision and if (still a huge if ) White wants a big contract. Remember, this is a team that let Stephon Gilmore walk and replaced him essentially with White, who under your scenario, would be allowed out for a pick this time. And if someone's giving up a 1st for him, doesn't that sort of indicate another team values him AND the contract he'd presumably demand? Team Building requires more than surface thinking. It's a deep dive and almost requires one to anticipate the externalities of a decision. 1
GunnerBill Posted April 16, 2020 Posted April 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, BillsVet said: And every Bills draft pick who performs under this regime will remember that decision. There is a macro perspective necessary to a decision, although I'm not saying to re-sign him for that sake alone. This is why a GM gets paid the way he does - to make those difficult choices. You can't run from every less than simple decision and if (still a huge if ) White wants a big contract. Remember, this is a team that let Stephon Gilmore walk and replaced him essentially with White, who under your scenario, would be allowed out for a pick this time. And if someone's giving up a 1st for him, doesn't that sort of indicate another team values him AND the contract he'd presumably demand? Team Building requires more than surface thinking. It's a deep dive and almost requires one to anticipate the externalities of a decision. This is also a very good point. White has been the epitome of their process. Come in, got his head down, worked, developed. He was the first pick of the regime. If they don't reward that the message it sends to Allen and Edmunds and Oliver and Dawkins and Milano and Singletary and the rest is not a great one. Buffalo is never going to be seen as a go to FA destination. So we need it to be a place that our good draft picks want to stay in because they feel they will be valued.
Success Posted April 16, 2020 Posted April 16, 2020 I could go to a game & watch Tre the whole time, and be exhilarated the whole time. He's one of those pure football players - great skills, great focus, great instincts. People compare him to Gilmore, saying he's still 2nd, but I won't have any of that. Gilmore mailed it in while he was here too much. I don't elevate players who only give their best when the situation is perfect for them or they're playing for a "winner." I'll never respect Gilmore.
JohnC Posted April 16, 2020 Posted April 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: This is also a very good point. White has been the epitome of their process. Come in, got his head down, worked, developed. He was the first pick of the regime. If they don't reward that the message it sends to Allen and Edmunds and Oliver and Dawkins and Milano and Singletary and the rest is not a great one. Buffalo is never going to be seen as a go to FA destination. So we need it to be a place that our good draft picks want to stay in because they feel they will be valued. Arguably, Gilmore is the most important player on New England's defense, and Belichick recognizes. White is arguably the most important player on Buffalo's defense, and McDermott recognizes it. White is not only a core player he is also an instrumental player. As you and others have pointed out White is the essential player that allows the McDermott defense to work. There are defenses that radiate from the defensive line to the backside. McDermott's defense is different. It radiates from the backside. That's why White is such a critical player for us.
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