My pick for the 2nd round - Jonathan Taylor

[Doc]

58 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Fumblers don't get credit for their fumbles being recovered by their own team.  It's random, not a skill.  

 

Singletary fumbled nearly 4% of his carries last season---and this is a guy who didn't have a ton or carries (151).  Only 1 RB in the NFL had more fumbles last year: Henry had 5....over 303 carries.  Plus there's Big 10 vs "CUSA".

 

Taylor in college had under 2% fumble rate while he averaged over 300 carries a season.  Why worry about that?

 

Losing a fumble or 3 is random.  Losing as many as Taylor did is on him.  If you didn't like him you'd be howling at the suggestion that fumbling 18 times and losing 15 isn't not on him and that it won't be a problem stepping up a level of competition.

 

Again, why take the chance?

Edited April 18, 2020 by Doc

[Mr. WEO]

11 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Losing a fumble or 3 is random.  Losing as many as Taylor did is on him.  If you didn't like him you'd be howling at the suggestion that fumbling 18 times and losing 15 isn't not on him and that it won't be a problem stepping up a level of competition.

 

Again, why take the chance?

 

Fumbles by a RB not recovered by the RB isn't a real stat, doc.  Fumbles are always on the RB, not where they end up.  

 

As far as "liking" him (HS never ended did it doc?)....I don't know much about him at all.   But if you are comparing a Power 5 RB who averaged 300 carries, 200 yards and  17 rushing TDs a year vs a minor conference guy with decent numbers.....I would not focus on a fumble rate of 1.9%.  That wouldn't make a lot of sense.

 

The ball carrier that had a problem holding onto the ball after stepping in competition is already on the roster.  If on the Bills Taylor had 300 carries at 5 per and  6 fumbles and more than 2 TDs, few would be focused on the fumbles.....

[maryland-bills-fan]

11 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Fumbles by a RB not recovered by the RB isn't a real stat, doc.  Fumbles are always on the RB, not where they end up.  

 

As far as "liking" him (HS never ended did it doc?)....I don't know much about him at all.   But if you are comparing a Power 5 RB who averaged 300 carries, 200 yards and  17 rushing TDs a year vs a minor conference guy with decent numbers.....I would not focus on a fumble rate of 1.9%.  That wouldn't make a lot of sense.

 

The ball carrier that had a problem holding onto the ball after stepping in competition is already on the roster.  If on the Bills Taylor had 300 carries at 5 per and  6 fumbles and more than 2 TDs, few would be focused on the fumbles.....

Singletary played at Florida Atlantic against weak competition, who they dominated. They had a lot of 20-30 point wins.  When they played the big boys they got dominated. Oklahoma 63 F.A. 14.  2018......Wisconsin 34 -14.    Playing against bigger, stronger faster players is a difference.

[Mr. WEO]

Just now, maryland-bills-fan said:

Singletary played at Florida Atlantic against weak competition, who they dominated. They had a lot of 20-30 point wins.  When they played the big boys they got dominated. Oklahoma 63 F.A. 14.  2018......Wisconsin 34 -14.    Playing against bigger, stronger faster players is a difference.

 

 

Sure does.

[Doc]

Just now, Mr. WEO said:

Fumbles by a RB not recovered by the RB isn't a real stat, doc.  Fumbles are always on the RB, not where they end up.  

 

As far as "liking" him (HS never ended did it doc?)....I don't know much about him at all.   But if you are comparing a Power 5 RB who averaged 300 carries, 200 yards and  17 rushing TDs a year vs a minor conference guy with decent numbers.....I would not focus on a fumble rate of 1.9%.  That wouldn't make a lot of sense.

 

The ball carrier that had a problem holding onto the ball after stepping in competition is already on the roster.  If on the Bills Taylor had 300 carries at 5 per and  6 fumbles and more than 2 TDs, few would be focused on the fumbles.....

 

How many RBs do you know of that have lost 83% of their fumbles?  I've never heard of any player ever coming close to that.  And fumbling once every 54 touches is a huge red flag.  You may not think so and you're entitled to your opinion, but others do.

 

But let me get this straight.  If Devin had 300 carries at 5 per and 8 (2 lost) fumbles...that would be horrible?  But Taylor at 6 fumbles (and 5 lost) is okey dokey?

 

Yeah, OK.

[CommonCents]

7 hours ago, Gugny said:

If he takes a RB in the 2nd round, I'll kick my dog's urn.

Poor Baxter. 

[Doc]

3 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Singletary played at Florida Atlantic against weak competition, who they dominated. They had a lot of 20-30 point wins.  When they played the big boys they got dominated. Oklahoma 63 F.A. 14.  2018......Wisconsin 34 -14.    Playing against bigger, stronger faster players is a difference.

 

So what do you consider going from the Big-10 to the NFL?  Even if you think it's close, that still means Taylor will have fumbling problems in the NFL.

 

 

[Doc]

 

Oh and despite a massive jump in competition, Singletary averaged 5.1 YPC.  So I'm not sure what the non-bolded part was meant to convey.

 

Now if you want to say that Devin should work on securing the ball better, that's another story and I agree.  But again why add a guy with known fumbling problems in college?

[Mr. WEO]

23 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

How many RBs do you know of that have lost 83% of their fumbles?  I've never heard of any player ever coming close to that.  And fumbling once every 54 touches is a huge red flag.  You may not think so and you're entitled to your opinion, but others do.

 

But let me get this straight.  If Devin had 300 carries at 5 per and 8 (2 lost) fumbles...that would be horrible?  But Taylor at 6 fumbles (and 5 lost) is okey dokey?

 

Yeah, OK.

 

No doc, those are both equally acceptable years.  It doesn't matter who recovers the fumble doc--it's not typically in the control of the fumbler.  

 

You are perseverating on that faux-stat because you have nothing else to cling to.   Derrick Henry lost 60% of his fumbles.  That's a good number?  Bad Number?  He can't be trusted with the ball?  Same with Chris Carson over the past 2 seasons.   Nick Chubb (1500 yards) lost 100% of his fumbles last year.  That dude sucks!  (S. Diggs lost 75% of his--whoops!)   In 2008-2009, AP fumbled a whopping 18 times and "lost" 11 of them----BUM!  QBs routinely "lose" the large majority of their fumbles....CUT THEM ALL!!!

 

Anyway....... if fumbling every 54 carries is a "huge red flag", how would you classify fumbling every 38 carries?

 

 

Edited April 18, 2020 by Mr. WEO

[Doc]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

No doc, those are both equally acceptable years.  It doesn't matter who recovers the fumble doc--it's not typically in the control of the fumbler.  

 

You are perseverating on that faux-stat because you have nothing else to cling to.   Derrick Henry lost 60% of his fumbles.  That's a good number?  Bad Number?  He can't be trusted with the ball?  Same with Chris Carson over the past 2 seasons.   Nick Chubb (1500 yards) lost 100% of his fumbles last year.  That dude sucks!  (S. Diggs lost 75% of his--whoops!)   In 2008-2009, AP fumbled a whopping 18 times and "lost" 11 of them----BUM!  QBs routinely "lose" the large majority of their fumbles....CUT THEM ALL!!!

 

Anyway....... if fumbling every 54 carries is a "red flag", how would you classify fumbling every 38 carries?

 

OK, they're both equally acceptable.  That's a start. 

 

The thing is, one of them is already on the team.  If you're so worried about Singetary fumbling, when he wasn't a fumbler in college, again why add another guy who will in all likelihood fumble as much, based on him fumbling in college at a lower (albeit higher than Singletary's) level?

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, Doc said:

 

OK, they're both equally acceptable.  That's a start. 

 

The thing is, one of them is already on the team.  If you're so worried about Singetary fumbling, when he wasn't a fumbler in college, again why add another guy who will in all likelihood fumble as much, based on him fumbling in college at a lower (albeit higher than Singletary's) level?

 

Singletary led the NFL in fumbles per carry for carries over 150 in his rookie year.  I doubt that will be the Bills misfortune to draft 2 such guys 2 years in a row.  

 

In his last 2 seasons at Wisconsin he had over 304 and 320 carries and 4 and 6 fumbles, respectively.  That's not a "huge red flag".

 

Anyway, much is made about RBs and fumbles.  The top 3 RB fumblers in the history of the NFL are all in the HOF.  Dorsett and Franco Harris each racked up 90 fumbles over 13 and 12 year careers--that's 7 and 7.5 fumbles per year! 

[Doc]

3 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Singletary led the NFL in fumbles per carry for carries over 150 in his rookie year.  I doubt that will be the Bills misfortune to draft 2 such guys 2 years in a row.  

 

In his last 2 seasons at Wisconsin he had over 304 and 320 carries and 4 and 6 fumbles, respectively.  That's not a "huge red flag".

 

Anyway, much is made about RBs and fumbles.  The top 3 RB fumblers in the history of the NFL are all in the HOF.  Dorsett and Franco Harris each racked up 90 fumbles over 13 and 12 year careers--that's 7 and 7.5 fumbles per year! 

 

 

Oh WEO...

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, Doc said:

 

 

 

You always come around doc!  Welcome!...and you're welcome.

[3rdand12]

On 4/15/2020 at 4:50 PM, DJB said:

We probably have to trade up from 54. Are you prepared to pay that price?

No . absolutely not. and I like the Kid. But he a somewhat of a project to gain an all around game.
 

I say no for another reason as well. Since we no longer have 1st round pick ? Gotta nail this one, maybe even drop out of 54 if an offer arrives and they have their eye on someone dropping for them.
 

i think RB might be better found a bit later in the with very good value and can play rookie season. still keep Yeldon as insurance.

 

Allen need either a great Pass blocking RB or one who can catch. Devin can run the ball just fine.

 

On 4/15/2020 at 5:19 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

 

This.  Taylor will likely not be a Buffalo Bill thanks to fumbling.  

 

There are other RB's just as exciting who dont have fumble issues.

 

My personal draft crush is AJ Dillon.  Get me an elusive bruiser who can catch too all day, every day.  He reminds me of a young Jerome Bettis and Derrick Henry.

If true ? 

 Then yes that sounds more like what Bills could use : )

[3rdand12]

8 hours ago, Gugny said:

If he takes a RB in the 2nd round, I'll kick my dog's urn.

OUCH !

[Doc]

7 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

You always come around doc!  Welcome!...and you're welcome.

 

No problem.  I've come to learn that "you always come around doc" is projection.

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, Doc said:

 

No problem.  I've come to learn that "you always come around doc" is projection.

 

 

"red flags"!

 

"fumbles lost"!

 

all went.... poof.

 

It takes minutes to research this stuff, doc.  Do so first.  Just trying to help.

[3rdand12]

2 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

No problem.  I've come to learn that "you always come around doc" is projection.

You two are a hoot to read , no matter what the subject : )

[maryland-bills-fan]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

OK, they're both equally acceptable.  That's a start. 

 

The thing is, one of them is already on the team.  If you're so worried about Singetary fumbling, when he wasn't a fumbler in college, again why add another guy who will in all likelihood fumble as much, based on him fumbling in college at a lower (albeit higher than Singletary's) level?

Gesh.  If you are a running back in the Big Ten and the major weapon, you are getting gang tackled by many nfl calibre players and the second guy is trying to strip the ball. Singletary was playing against Stony Brook, Wagner and Bethune-Cookman.   There have not been many nfl level players from these small schools.

[Buffalo716]

8 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Gesh.  If you are a running back in the Big Ten and the major weapon, you are getting gang tackled by many nfl calibre players and the second guy is trying to strip the ball. Singletary was playing against Stony Brook, Wagner and Bethune-Cookman.   There have not been many nfl level players from these small schools.

Division 1 football is Division 1 football. Nobody thought a Khalil Mack would come out of UB

 

Realistically fumbling the ball at any level of football is not good