My pick for the 2nd round - Jonathan Taylor

[Estro]

Its my belief that Jonathan Taylor will likely be the 1st RB selected and that will likely happen between picks 20-40.

 

This means the Bills would have to trade UP, likely packaging both their 2nd & 3rd round picks to select Taylor.  While I like Taylor, I'm not sure I like the idea of spending our first pick on a RB, let alone packaging both of our picks on a RB.  

 

 

[Ralonzo]

1 hour ago, Ramza86 said:

2nd round? lol

 

Why lol? Drafts are entertaining because they don't go the way people think they will. Taylor on the board at 54, while unlikely, isn't unthinkable.

[YoloinOhio]

1 minute ago, Ralonzo said:

 

Why lol? Drafts are entertaining because they don't go the way people think they will. Taylor on the board at 54, while unlikely, isn't unthinkable.

Who’s even taking him in the 1st? Any time I do a mock he and everyone but Swift is there at 54. I know mocks mean nothing but not sure why it’s assumed he’s going in the 1st

[BuffaloRebound]

Every time I do one of those mocks, Taylor or Dobbins available at 54, Akers available at 86, and the Appalachian State RB available at 128.  

[CaptnCoke11]

Zero chance he’s there at 54 so they’d have to trade up 

[YoloinOhio]

7 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Zero chance he’s there at 54 so they’d have to trade up 

No one knows how it will play out but how do you know this? I’ve done more mocks than I’d like to admit and he’s there every single time. I don’t know if he will be there on Friday but not sure how you could definitively think he won’t be.

Edited April 18, 2020 by YoloinOhio

[DuckyBoys]

I think he might still be there  I've seen a lot of mocks with no rb in the first round

[Dkollidas]

On 4/15/2020 at 3:50 PM, YoloinOhio said:

He is fast and there is a connection with his RB coach at Wisconsin who used to coach in Carolina. But a reason I see them maybe looking at a different RB especially that high is that he’s untested In the passing game.  That was the case with Singletary last year too and they projected that he could do it in the nfl and we can determine whether that was successful or not. Since they couldn’t do a private workout with Taylor I’m not sure they want to project something like that again. They may want a RB who has that on film. 

I wonder if they see that becoming more of Singletary’s role going forward. Then you would use Taylor (or a guy like him) in a role like Gore (short yardage etc).

 

I could also see them using Yeldon more as a pass catcher out of the backfield as well. 
 

New England always seemed to have 3 backs who were very different and they didn’t worry about “giving away” anything in terms of the play calling. And Daboll definitely has a lot of the Patriot mentality in his offensive scheming. 

[dezertbill]

On 4/15/2020 at 12:45 PM, John from Riverside said:

I am really not buying that Beane likes Yeldon that much.  If he liked him he would have given him more burn last year when Gore was falling off.

 

He has that game breaking speed that compliments Devin's style of play.   You dont have a drop off in play when Devin gets spelled, it keeps him fresh, and if Devin gets nicked up he looks like could carry the load.

 

 

This is my "all in" prediction.  I believe Beane is all in on this guy, and he will trade up in 2nd round to get him if we have too.  Hopefully we won't.

 

But I also believe Beane knows there will be a run on RB's in early 2nd round, and we'll have to act.  

[maryland-bills-fan]

Here is a Wisconsin site reacting to a prediction that Taylor is the 6th best RB in the draft.  The basis of that seems to be that he had a lot of carries in college.   Funny thing- he didn't miss time with injuries, so you might think that proves he is robust.  Oh well, experts always like to have something to so to make them look smart.

 

https://badgerswire.usatoday.com/2020/04/09/nfl-com-analyst-has-jonathan-taylor-outside-of-the-top-five-running-back-prospects-in-his-latest-draft-rankings/

[Thurman#1]

On 4/16/2020 at 5:07 AM, YoloinOhio said:

I meant more along the lines of he wasn’t used in the passing game, but as a blocker I didn’t notice one way or the other 

 

 

Matt Waldman in his deep dive on RBs (I started a thread about it recently with the link if you're curious) said that Taylor was like a matador stepping out of the way in pass blocking situations, just avoiding it.

 

I have to admit, I hate hearing that and I suspect that for our FO, who say that they like guys who love football, will really downgrade Jonathan Taylor for this issue. Waldman still had him 2nd-best in the class, felt he was the best pure runner in the group but said he was just unwilling to pass-block. Here it is:

 

 

 

On 4/9/2020 at 7:23 PM, Thurman#1 said:

https://rockpilereport.podbean.com/e/rockpile-report-199-2020-draft-series-running-backs-wmatt-waldman-of-the-rsp-filmroom/

 

 

It's a long podcast. The RB stuff with Waldman starts at about 1:07:00. It's a two-hour thing, and I wish I had skipped right to there, myself. But Waldman's always a good listen and has a ton of info.

 

On A.J. Dillon, "There are a lot of people I think who are sleeping on A.J. Dillon out of B.C., who I wonder if people think he's an Andre Williams clone. And if there's anyone who he's a clone of it would be Derrick Henry. I mean, I think this is a guy who can be a very good running back. He's nimble for a big man. Got the vision ... And he leaped 41 inches at the combine which is a very explosive mark, so you're talking about a quick-twitch athlete who, from a vision standpoint  understands how to set up his blockers, and the thing that I love about him is that he carried the ball 866 times in his career. There are a lot of people that you hear this and they say, "Well, there's not enough tread still on the tire, I'm worried about the odometer breaking down." Man, I discussed this ten years ago with a little-known back by the name of Bobby Raney, who used to play for the Buccaneers and Giants and Ravens because he had a high workload and people were worried about that in a small back.

 

"And I was trying to explain to people that if you look at people, the histories of RBs  in the college game? If they have a high workload, there's a high correlation to them being able to deliver with a high workload in the pros, if they have the talent to get on the field. You know, guys like Steven Jackson and Michael Turner, Cedric Benson, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice, these are all guys who led the NCAA one year in carries. They didn't break down. There's a lot of guys ... as long as they didn't have consistent chronic health issues and there's nothing in their medical report to be concerned about, the only guy I saw on an extensive list that had a chronic health issue, which was a knee, which was Jay Ajayi. And everyone knew that he had a ticking time bomb in the knee. Otherwise, most of these backs that they get into a starting role and they've had that high workload, they generally prove that they can continue to get a high workload and produce for you so A.J. Dillon's the guy that I just don't get why he's not getting more conversation."

 

 

Waldman's #1 is JK Dobbins, "by a fairly good margin." Asked about Jonathan Taylor he says that as a pure runner, Taylor is probably the best pure runner in the class, but in terms of pass receiving, blocking and ball security, other guys give you more upside. Swift catches the ball well. "But his biggest issue, as good as he is as a runner, it's as bad as he is as a pass protector." He brought up the Seinfeld where Jerry is dating a masseuse who never wants to give him a massage because she's off work. "Jonathan Taylor is like this stud running back but when you ask him to apply his skills at home in the pocket, forget it, he's done for the day. You see that. He's almost an artful dodger when it comes to his effort in pass protection." Waldman still has him at #2, and thinks maybe he could be good if he tried, but you have to project. Doesn't sound like a Beane guy, though.

 

He also said that last year's RB class wasn't as strong as 2016, 2017 or this one coming up. He was asked, "Do you look at [the 2020 RB draft class], do you look at them and think there's more top end talent than what came in last season?" The question specifically mentioned Miles Sanders, who was the 2nd RB picked last year and went at #53.

 

Waldman's reply was this, "This year I think there are a dozen guys that I think, just from the standpoint - obviously potential is always different from the reality of the situation - but there's twelve guys in this class who have what I would call a grade that would put them in a starting role ... they could play in a starting role, maybe in a rotation in a committee, but there are literally eleven guys who are graded higher than where I graded Miles Sanders last year.

 

"Now, Sanders is in a tier ... to me the grade isn't as big a difference as the tier. So, let's look, ummmmmm, there's probably about six guys in the second tier last year, that Miles Sanders was in. And then in this particular class, there are also six guys in here but the class goes deeper, because there's also a bigger first tier. So this is a richer class, there's probably five ... I would say there's four guys who can be immediate starters depending on where they land, and then there's another eight guys I think that half of those eight guys that I'm thinking about in tier two will probably get a significant committee contribution and will look like ... I'll say Devin Singletary was a significant committee contributor, I would say for the offense in terms of production. And then I would say there's another four who probably won't be immediate committee contributors but when they see the field, you'll see the flashes of talent. And then you look at the rest and there's probably another twelve guys in this class who could give you contributions and maybe three to four of them could emerge into lead committee contributors at some point. So this is a rich group that ... we may see some guys out of this class who may give you top twelve, top fifteen production right off of the bat."

 

 

 

 

Around 1:41 ... And for the Bills he likes Cam Akers in the 3rd or 4th, likes him a lot. Likes Eno Benjamin and Antonio Gibson ("around 98 proof of LeSean McCoy") for the Bills also. And just after that ...

 

Interviewer Drew Gier: "There's people who exist out there, probably listening right now yelling at their radios, talking about, "We need the top tier running back." It sounds like there's some depth there to be had that if there's a running back by committee ... that's the way you should probably handle running back in the new NFL now. Is that correct?"

 

Matt Waldman: "I mean, I certainly think there's a reason for that, and I'll just say real quickly that the fan inside of me would love for you guys to take Jonathan Taylor first overall and roll with that, but I think the more mature perspective again is, obviously you're not going to be able to do that. But also there are players that you can get that can work with Devin Singletary in a committee and who would be very effective."

 

Then of Zack Moss, "very close to my first tier," has him #5, and breaks him down. Pointed out that at Utah they left him alone against defensive ends and that is so rugged that he wins. Can grow into a real blocker, screen guy, etc. Mentioned Travis Henry as a guy with some similarities.

 

Interesting stuff, IMO.

 

 

 

Edited April 18, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Gugny]

If he takes a RB in the 2nd round, I'll kick my dog's urn.

[Doc]

15 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

I guess he didn't demand that last draft...

 

 

Who is a fumbler from last year's draft?

[Mr. WEO]

45 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

 

Who is a fumbler from last year's draft?

 

Singletary's fumble rate last season was twice what Taylor's career rate was in college.

 

[Doc]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

Singletary's fumble rate last season was twice what Taylor's career rate was in college.

 

In college Devin fumbled once every 156 touches.  There weren't any red flags and the Bills couldn't predict the future, but last year he fumbled twice in each of 2 games, losing 1, both wins.  For Taylor it was once every 54.  And 15 of his 18 fumbles were lost.  Not worth taking the chance to see if his fumble problem likely continue if not get worse.

[YoloinOhio]

10 hours ago, dezertbill said:

This is my "all in" prediction.  I believe Beane is all in on this guy, and he will trade up in 2nd round to get him if we have too.  Hopefully we won't.

 

But I also believe Beane knows there will be a run on RB's in early 2nd round, and we'll have to act.  

Why do you think he is all in on him?

[Mr. WEO]

2 hours ago, Doc said:

 

In college Devin fumbled once every 156 touches.  There weren't any red flags and the Bills couldn't predict the future, but last year he fumbled twice in each of 2 games, losing 1, both wins.  For Taylor it was once every 54.  And 15 of his 18 fumbles were lost.  Not worth taking the chance to see if his fumble problem likely continue if not get worse.

 

 

Fumblers don't get credit for their fumbles being recovered by their own team.  It's random, not a skill.  

 

Singletary fumbled nearly 4% of his carries last season---and this is a guy who didn't have a ton or carries (151).  Only 1 RB in the NFL had more fumbles last year: Henry had 5....over 303 carries.  Plus there's Big 10 vs "CUSA".

 

Taylor in college had under 2% fumble rate while he averaged over 300 carries a season.  Why worry about that? 

 

 

[Big Turk]

There is no real reason to draft an RB this high with Singletary as the starter for the forseeable future. Literally they could be perfectly fine to get one as a UFA. RBs are a dime a doze in today's schemes, no need to waste picks on them when you could use them towards something else.

[Augie]

Sorry to interrupt with a PSA: Bills 30 for 30 from 3:00 to 5:00PM on ABC today if you are bored. 

 

Now, back to your regularly scheduled thread. 

[BuffaloRebound]

4 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

There is no real reason to draft an RB this high with Singletary as the starter for the forseeable future. Literally they could be perfectly fine to get one as a UFA. RBs are a dime a doze in today's schemes, no need to waste picks on them when you could use them towards something else.

Agreed.  I’m thinking Pittman, Claypool, or Kmet at 54.  Give Josh a big move the chains pass catcher. There will be good running backs available in the 3rd round and beyond.  Plus, there’s still decent ones available in free agency.